Sunday, April 30, 2017

Random Look At An HRC Well Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- April 30, 2017

This well will be coming off confidential this week:
  • 31970, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20173706078640
1-20174169081580
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

A reader noted that if one converts the gas volumes to boe, the well flowed about 250,000 boe in the first four months; 174,000 bbls were oil.

The Rolfson S wells are tracked here; when these wells are reported this week, I will update the Rolfson S wells.

Oops! Tesla Just Delayed The Roll-Out Of Its Solar Roof -- April 30, 2017

Link here. And we're not talking a month or two. Musk Melon says two of four shingle options won't be available until (wink, wink) early 2018. His solution, by the way, appears not inexpensive. I don't know. Just a thought.

A Bunch Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week, Including Some Nice Oasis Rolfson Wells And HRC Fort Berthold Wells -- April 30, 2017

Wells coming off confidential list early in the week:

Wednesday, May 3, 2017:
29880, conf, WPX, Etstatis 32-29HA, Eagle Nest, no production data,
30247, see below, HRC Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-7H, Four Bears,
30870, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, North Fork, no production data,
32133, conf, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 42-19MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32486, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32667, conf, SM Energy, Steen 16-20HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Tuesday, May 2, 2017:
29881, SI/NC, WPX. Etstatis 32-29H, Eagle Nest, t11/16; cum 84K 3/17;
30244, 2,251, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-10H, Four Bears, Three Forks, 37 stages, 5.6 million lbs;
30869, SI/NC, BR, Curtis 21-16 MBH-2NH, North Fork, no production data,
31989, 1,658, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston, 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 151K 2/17;
32134, SI/NC, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 42-19 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32668, drl, SM Energy, Edna Marie 16B-20HN, Ambrose, no production data,
33126, drl, North Range Resources, Sheep Creek Storm 1-IV, Grassy Butte, producing,

Monday, May 1, 2017:
29882, SI/NC, WPX, Etstatis 32-29HW, Eagle Nest, no production data,
30248, 2,101, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-6H, Four Bears,
31189, SI/NC, WPX, Poplar 32-29HE, Eagle Nest, no production data,
31970, 2,125, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston,
31971, 2,372, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston,
32135, SI/NC, BR, CCU Pacific Express 42-19 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32136, SI/NC, BR, CCU Pacific Express 42-19 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32579, 2,135, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-5H, Four Bears,
32669, SI/NC  SM Energy, Sophus 16-20HS, Ambrose, no production data,
32687, 1,673, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HW, Spotted Horn, no production data,
32721, SI/NC, BR, Remington 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Sunday, April 30, 2017
31969, 1,353, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston,
32635, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, Camel Butte, no production data,
32683, 2,198, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HA, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Saturday, April 29, 2017
32628, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, no production data,
32670, SI/NC, SM Energy, Stella 16B-20HS, Ambrose, no production data,

************************

31969, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20172429647506
1-20173047058301
12-20162650549846
11-20162823945484
10-20167903622

31970, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20173706078640
1-20174169081580
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

31971, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20171906045280
1-20172425053939
12-20162158539853
11-20162995732603

31989, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20172374654674
1-20174073475391
12-20164695479977
11-20163902147861

30247, see above, HRC Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-7H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171704722620
2-20171714020716
1-20172165023642
12-20162223622864
11-20162301826627

30244, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-10H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171599820549
2-20171548120571
1-201778488507
12-20162753729705
11-20161643021587

30248, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-6H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171731030462
2-20171732821776
1-20172269525295
12-20162295723381
11-20162914035771

32579, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-5H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2017909713098
2-20171721722222
1-20171862422900
12-20162919730337
11-20163691839130

33126, see above, North Range Resources, Sheep Creek Storm 1-IV, Grassy Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201716400
1-20173590

The Oil Glut Is Moving To The Right -- Bloomberg -- April 30, 2017

Updates

May 1, 2017: Get over the OPEC meeting, already -- Bloomberg.
  • OPEC has no choice but to extend its production cuts
  • the extension will be a gift from the conference room in Vienna to the boardrooms of Texas and California
Original Post 

A reader sent me the link to this story: the oil glut is moving to the right.

My unedited, perhaps "not-ready-for-prime time" reply:
Excellent, excellent essay. Follows exactly what I've been saying on the blog for the past few months, but taking it one more step that has only been reported/seen in the last few weeks.
1. The first story: the oil glut.

2. The second story: the oil glut is being moved to the right -- refined products: gasoline and distillates.
This essay stresses the second story.

But the first story cannot be overlooked. For years, historically before 2015, the US was doing fine with 350 million bbls of crude oil in storage with 21 days of crude oil supply.

Now, we have 530 million bbls of crude oil in storage and 32 days of crude oil supply. These stories of weekly drawdowns of 3 million bbls/week are ludicrous. At 3 million bbls/week, it would take ((530 - 350)/3) = 60 weeks just to get back to where we were historically.

(By the way, the writer mentioned in passing the drawdown of the SPR - that, too, is / was a drop in the bucket -- the SPR drawdown is being done over several months -- I forget how long.)

A drawdown of 3 million bbls/week would consistently have to happen for 60 weeks -- more than a year. The price of oil, in my mind, is now disconnected from reality and has become an emotional response (in fact, nothing new). So, as the price of oil goes up even a bit, US shale production will increase -- making it less likely that drawdowns of 3 million bbls will happen week-after-week for the next 60 weeks (more than a year from now). And as the price increases based on these "emotional" stories that the drawdown continues, US shale will increase, and soon OPEC will become even more nervous about losing market share, and then OPEC cuts will end, as the new mantra becomes: "every Arab for himself."

A number of very smart folks who read the blog "religiously" disagree with me, suggesting that the decrease in conventional exploration since 2014 will catch up with us sooner than later. But I look at the huge amount of money that was spent on conventional exploration in 2009, 2012, and 2014, and suggest that this focus on conventional exploration has been over-hyped. It's been reported more than once that those projects begun in 2009, 2012, and 2014, are now just beginning to come on line. And producers will maximize production from those conventional projects now that the costs have been sunk (literally and figuratively).

For me, it's more about demand than supply right now. The US has to increase demand, but China has to really increase demand. India could be a big help but I don't think India becomes a significant player in the supply/demand story for another decade. A country like India can move only so fast. I may be wrong, but India seems focused on its internal economy; the US and China appear focused on the global economy. Maybe India is exporting more products to the world that I am aware, but I certainly haven't seen any indication. [I could be wrong, but India Pale Ale is a product made outside of India.]

So, back to the linked story. The oil glut moving to the right is a really, really bad news story for Prince Salman as he belatedly tries to turn his oil-producing economy to an oil-refining economy. Too little, too late, Not only does he not have the capital to do that, his country has neither the expertise, nor the inherent entrepreneurial genome required.

For investors, it seems like a great time to be looking at investing in refineries. In fact, XOM doubled its profits only because of midstream and downstream. It lost money on upstream. With regard to investing, I have always said I would never invest in airlines or refiners (stand-alone refiners). If I were more rational in my investing strategy I would re-consider the latter (refiners) but I will continue to reinvest my CVX and XOM dividends into those same companies. They will be nice holdings for my granddaughters.
 *****************************

By the way, did anyone see this paragraph near the end of the story in the linked story above:
At the same time, imports from Middle East OPEC countries show no sign of falling.
With delivery times to the Gulf coast averaging 42 days, output cuts made before mid-March ought to be reflected by now in lower arrivals. It's as if the crude that's been extracted in the U.S. is just swapping places with that being extracted in the Middle East.
Now, go back and look at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2017/04/saudi-cutting-production-what-bunch-of.html.

Someone at Bloomberg must be reading the blog. But a respected news outlet like Bloomberg can't use the word crap.

Reality Bites: Major Snowstorm Forces Cancellation Of Climate March (In Late April) -- April 30, 2017

The screen shot:


The source: link.

The good 'ol days when there was at least some snow to be seen and before Al Gore invented color photography and the Internet:


The Eleven Most Under-Reported Stories In The US And The One Most Mis-Reported Story -- April 30, 2017

Pardon the interruption:


Source: link

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program, the eleven most under-reported stories in the US, and one mis-reported story.

The market: How incredibly well the equity market is doing; setting records never expected even as US GDP hits historic low. Imagine what the market might do if we actually see a GDP in excess of 3%. And especially if a 3% GDP is not forecast by the analysts.

NOKO missile crisis: The NOKO missile crisis -- very, very similar to JFK's Cuban missile crisis. If it ends well (however one defines "well" in this situation), the mainstream media will give no credit to Trump. If it ends badly, it could be the defining moment for the nascent Trump dynasty.

National Health Care: The thoughtfulness that "might" be going into reforming the "national healthcare system" -- a thoughtfulness that was not seen when ObamaCare was being written by lobbyists, socialists, and ideologues.

Energy: The incredible potential of the US energy sector: how US crude oil and natural gas (and their derivatives) are changing the global energy sector. If dynamic scoring is allowed when assessing future American budgets, US energy changes everything.

Energy: tectonic changes; the rise and fall of Saudi Arabia, 1950 - 2030.

Global warming: the changing narrative. More and more scientists coming around to the fact that "the science is not settled."

Failed experiment: homelessness, free needle exchange, and legalization of marijuana.

Islam: Divergent responses. Asia's understanding of the issue; America's "head in the sand" approach. We will see the results in 2100.

Future of Russia: Europe's opportunity to turn to the US for LNG; gain some independence from Russia.

Venezuela. This post was originally "the ten most under-reported stories" and then I remembered Venezuela.

Ornithology: American red-winged blackbird never before seen in Great Britain spotted in Orkney, about as far north in Europe one can get without being north of the Arctic Circle.

**********************
The Most Mis-Reported Story: The Trump Administration. 



LNG Liquefaction Projects -- Three "Models" -- RBN Energy -- April 30, 2017

RBN identifies three categories of existing and new LNG liquefaction facilities:
  • first-wave, tried-and-true: building and/or expanding at existing sites; current sites with multiple 4.5- to 5-MTPA trains
  • second-wave, smaller scale projects; some at greenfield sites; others at existing sites: multiple 1- to 2-MTPA trains to serve incremental needs of existing customers
  • third-wave: new, huge projects that would require huge infrastructure CAPEX, including perhaps hundreds of miles of new pipeline
*****************************
Global Warming Across The Nation This Weekend

Snow in Gillette, WY; Denver, CO; southern Minnesota; and now, Goodland, KS where the forecast is for "snow, the snow could be heavy at time. Total daytime snow could reach 7 - 11 inches (accumulation)."

Goodland, KS? On I-70 just inside Kansas, east of Denver. Pretty far south to be getting this kind of snow this time of year, I would suppose, but then I've never been to Goodland, as far as I know.

***************************
For Dyed-In-The-Wool Anglophiles

I don't know if you need a subscription to access this essay; I got to it easily without logging on (unless the site "remembered" "my computer"): a very queer family, indeed

This is a typical essay in London Review of Books: something I would never imagine reading, but when I did, I found it fascinating; a very long essay; and, about a very, very obscure subject.

First thoughts after reading the first half: Emily Dickinson; Little Women, Virginia Woolf; the Bront√ęs.

From the essay,
Arthur 'A.C." Benson became a housemaster at Eton, a fellow and then master of Magdalene College, Cambridge, ... edited Queen Victoria's letters ... wrote a series of reflective works on the nature of life and happiness that sold in the hundreds of thousands. He was twice incapacitated by severe depression, and only in those years broke off writing the diary he kept from the age of 35 until his death at 63. At more than four million words in 180 volumes, it is the longest known to be in existence.