Monday, April 24, 2017

Pipelines Don't Matter Until They Do -- April 24, 2017

Link here. Pipeline bringing fuel to northeast Wisconsin will not re-open; delivers fuel to Green Bay area from Milwaukee.
Since its closure, the state has worked with local officials and industry leaders to get fuel to that part of Wisconsin.
Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel says the state will continue working with its partners to develop a long-term solution.
The 56-year-old, 110-mile-long pipeline runs from north of Milwaukee to Green Bay. Pipelines don't matter until they do.

Why Re-Balancing Is Failing -- Part II -- Platts -- April 24, 2017

Platts, link here 

I have not read this article yet, and may not get to it until tomorrow.

I am curious how my "world view" / myth compares to the analysis provided in this three-part series by Platt.

For me, this is my "world view":
  • re-balancing won't succeed in calendar year 2017
  • re-balancing unlikely to succeed in 2018
  • those investing in the oil sector need to have a very, very long time frame / horizon (note: I am talking about investors, not traders) (very, very long time frame = 10 years or more)
Definitions: I define "success/failure" of "re-balancing" this way:
  • the trend for higher crude oil prices is definite and obvious; "everyone" agrees prices are heading higher; headlines in the mainstream media wring their hands over higher oil prices
  • the price quoted in the "crawlers" for WTI is clearly well above $60 and trending toward $75 in today's dollars through 2018
It will be interesting how those views compare to Platts.

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Will OPEC Production Cuts Fail?

Rigzone link here.

Again, I have not read the article yet. I am curious how their views compare to mine. 

Whiting, Bakken, And The Driving Season -- Filloon - April 24, 2017

Disclaimer applies: this is not an investment site.

Summary at SeekingAlpha:
  • Bakken production continues to improve as costs decrease
  • Whiting has shown a significant spike over the past year in production per well
  • well design has been the key to Whiting's success as more proppant, shorter stages and more perf clusters provide more production per foot
  • the average Whiting Bakken/Three Forks location produces 125K BO in the first 5 months
  • given its leverage, hedge position, and potential to increase production it could see a substantial lift in stock price over the driving season
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Most Recent Frack Data From The Bakken

Disclaimer: this does not include all wells completed since March 4, 2017. It generally does not include DUCs. Frack data for DUCs (SI/NC) tends to be released a bit later than frack data for wells coming off the confidential list (conf).

This list is for my purpose only. Do not quote me on this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. I am tracking this data to see how it compares with stories in the mainstream media about completion solutions. It is my hunch that most stories in the mainstream media with regard to completion solutions have to do with the Marcellus / Utica (for natural gas) and the Permian (for crude oil).

The number of stages and the amount of sand has increased for Bakken completion solutions, but it's my observation that the amount of sand being used is much less for fracking in the Bakken compared to that used in the Permian. In addition, the amount of sand used in the Bakken varies widely a) by operator; and, b) by location.

The second column is the NDIC file/permit number.

The fourth column is simply a placeholder to total the number of wells in the list.

The fifth column is the number of frack stages.

The sixth column is the amount of proppant (generally sand, at this point) in millions of pounds.

The last column is the oil field in North Dakota. These are all Bakken/Three Forks wells. All wells are long laterals (about 9,500 feet long, but varies) with an occasional short lateral (e.g., EOG in the Parshall oil field).

Mar 4, 2017
32874
Newfield
1
51
7.6
Sand Creek
Mar 4, 2017
31161
HRC
1
33
4.9
McGregory Buttes
Mar 5, 2017
31570
Whiting
1
44
9.2
Bell
Mar 5, 2017
31187
Enerplus




Mar 6, 2017
32463
SM Energy




Mar 6, 2017
32327
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 6, 2017
31948
Whiting
1
44
9.2
Bell
Mar 6, 2017
31712
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 6, 2017
29790
Enerplus




Mar 6, 2017
25407
QEP




Mar 7, 2017
31704
Whiting



Twin Valley
Mar 7, 2017
25408
QEP



Heart Butte
Mar 7, 2017
32264
Whiting
1
35
7.3
Poe
Mar 8, 2017
25409
QEP



Heart Butte
Mar 8, 2017
27596
Petro-Hunt
1
50
4.8
Llittle Knife
Mar 8, 2017
31708
Whiting
1
35
6.9
Twin Valley
Mar 8, 2017
32119
EOG

DUC
DUC
Parshall
Mar 8, 2017
32457
Hess



Blue Buttes
Mar 8, 2017
32462
SM Energy



Ambrose
Mar 13, 2017
30825
WPX
1
41
6.1
Reunion Bay
Mar 13, 2017
30826
WPX
1
40
6.0
Reunion Bay
Mar 13, 2017
32326
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017
30828
WPX
1
42
6.1
Reunion Bay
Mar 14, 2017
31707
Whiting
1
35
7.2
Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017
31710
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017
32329
Whiting
1
35
10.0
Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017
32755
XTO
0



Mar 15, 2017
32087
QEP
1
49
10.0
Grail
Mar 15, 2017
32105
QEP
1
49
9.6
Grail
Mar 15, 2017
32107
QEP
1
49
10.0
Grail
Mar 15, 2017
32343
QEP
1
49
9.6
Grail
Mar 15, 2017
32344
QEP
1
49
10.0
Grail
Mar 15, 2017
32345
QEP
1
49
9.6
Grail
Mar 17, 2017
31711
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 18, 2017
31715
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 21, 2017
31706
Whiting
1
35
6.7
Twin Valley
Mar 21, 2017
29601
Lime Rock
1
16
2.4
Cabernet
Mar 22, 2017
32328
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley
Mar 27, 2017
31705
Whiting
1
35
7.0
Twin Valley
Apr 8, 2017
32560
Whiting
1
35
7.5
Banks
Apr 11, 2017
32562
Whiting
1
35
9.8
Banks
Apr 11, 2017
32559
Whiting
1
35
9.6
Banks
Apr 12, 2017
31112
Whiting
1
50
15.3
Banks
Apr 18, 2017
32833
Whiting
1
35
7.3
Banks
Apr 24, 2017
32401
QEP



Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017
32402
QEP
1
54
9.7
Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017
32403
QEP



Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017
43404
QEP
1
51
9.6
Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017
43405
QEP
1
51
10.0
Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017
43406
QEP



Spotted Horn










36
40
8.0