Saturday, April 15, 2017

White Butte's Panzer Wells, Antelope Oil Field, Updated -- April 15, 2017

The Panzer wells have been re-fracked; production updated.

*****************************
Bur(r) Under My Saddle

On talk radio following Sergio Garcia winning the 2017 PGA Masters golf tournament, a reporter was later ridiculed for asking Garcia what it meant to win his first Masters (and first major?) on what would have been Seve Ballesteros' 60th birthday. The critic apparently had no clue on the importance of "the 60th birthday."

I was reminded of that when reading Gino Segre's Ordinary Geniuses, on page 228:
It is traditional to mark a major scientist's sixtieth or sixty-fifth birthday by a one- or two-day symposium that combines serious scientific talks with retrospective remarks about the person being honored.
And before that, on page 136:
At a 1966 symposium honoring Max on his sixtieth birthday, ...
So, I was curious, anything else "significant" in this regard? And there it was, over at classroom.synonym:
In Chinese culture, the 60th birthday holds special meaning and is widely celebrated with food, gifts and festivities. Prior to the 60th birthday, only the first and 10th birthdays are considered significant.
I'm sure one could find much more about the significance of one's 60th birthday if interested, but I'm not. Interested.

A Recovery Rate Of 25%? -- Oilprice.com -- April 15, 2017

This is a pretty good update (consider the source). The most interesting data point in the linked article has to do with the recovery rate from unconventional plays. I have two tags that haven't been used in years: recovery rate and recoverable.

When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I believe it was said that 1 - 3% of original oil in place was recoverable (with primary production). I believe it was Whiting who first suggested that operators were recovering significantly more than 3% of OOIP in the Bakken, and that was years ago. Now in the linked oilprice.com article:
But now the recovery rate, from 5 percent to 12 percent, may reach 25 percent in coming years.
It is not a matter of if but when this technological revolution extends across all oil-producing regions outside the Middle East. There is strong evidence of the aforesaid rising oil production as well, with the EIA forecasting a U.S. daily crude output of 9.2 million barrels this year. It is expected to reach 9.7mpd in 2018 (sic).
The rise in oil prices and U.S. production are directly proportional. This is one of the reasons that, as prices have recovered over past few months, we have witnessed a historic build in inventories.
In fact, the EIA is now forecasting that the US will produce 9.9 million bopd sometime in 2018. 

But back to the recovery rate. For newbies, look at this, posted almost two years ago:
Also note that oilprice.com is also calling this "fracking 2.0". We started calling it Bakken 2.0 quite some time ago.

Back of the envelope:
  • Bakken: 500 billion-bbl OOIP
  • 25% recovery = 125 billion bbls
  • Bakken/Three Forks: 400 million bbls produced / year (2015
  • 125 billion / 400 million = 312 years of production
  • 125 billion / 800 million = 156 years of production
  • we're into year ten in the North Dakota Bakken
If that sounds outrageous, a couple of reminders:
And these are just a few of many, many examples.

And conservatively, it was suggested some years ago, the Bakken would be producing oil until 2100.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

*****************************
Putting Things Into Perspective
High Tech vs Low Tech

America drops the MOAB the other day. First reports: 16 members of ISIS killed. That has been updated to suggest that 94 members of ISIS were killed; no non-combatants killed.

Meanwhile, today it is being reported that a car bomb in Syria has killed 100 non-combatants

*****************************
Putting Things Into Perspective
Champions

The Spurs have been in the NBA for 40 years. They have been in the play-offs 37 of those years. The next closes: Los Angeles Lakers, 35 years; and, then the Portland Trailblazers, 32 years. 

And the best part: their home court is the ATT Center. What an incredible investment made by ATT some years ago when the corporation was headquartered in San Antonio.

*****************************
Putting Things Into Perspective
These 138JC Penney Stores Needed To Be Closed

The store closures will represent 13% to 14% of J.C. Penney's current store base and less than 5% of annual sales.


Oasis Rolfson 29-32H Re-Frack Looks Successful -- #20464 -- April 15, 2017

Back on February 2, 2017, I wrote:
  • 20464, 1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/11; cum 212K 2/17; taken off-line 6/16; off-line through 12/16; from sundry form suggesting start date of September, 2016, for this: Oasis intends to refrack the Rolfson 29-32H well at the beginning of the infill stimulations (sic) operations for the Rolfson S wells in the 29 and 32 sections of 151N98W. If [preparatory tests are sufficient], the refrack design will consist of a bullheaded diversion sequence treatment in a crosslinked fluid system with 50 diversion sequences. [There are no neighboring producing wells.] See wells of interest.
Then on February 14, 2017, I wrote:
Here is the latest production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-201728205402100219712485503577412496
BAKKEN1-201715920480101616321780133358295
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20161000000
BAKKEN9-201610070141000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20162212491609668336431440
BAKKEN5-20163120981962845515048400
BAKKEN4-20162517831604102334113029132

The best this well had done previously, after the initial frack back in late 2011, was around 14,000 bbls/month.

Many years ago there was a discussion among Bakken operators whether it made more sense to re-frack an existing well, or to simply re-drill a new well. EOG was in the latter camp: simply re-drill a new well. I think it depends.

Over at FracFocus, still no report. There are no new sundry forms posted at the NDIC file report.

A Quiet Saturday Morning; ND Agricultural Stocks Way Up -- April 15, 2017

My mother's hometown newspaper wins a Pulitzer Prize, and is featured in today's WSJ.

Growing up, we spent almost every summer in Storm Lake, Iowa, for a one- to two-week vacation, with our maternal grandparents. Looking back, I am amazed that my dad could afford to take that much time away from work. It was also quite impressive how much the grandparents did to make this an incredible vacation for a family (the grandparents as well as our family) with very little money. My grandparents rented a very, very nice house on Twin Lakes, I believe, where we spent a full week of swimming. It was quite incredible. Many great memories.

Some years later, while attending Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD, I hitchhiked to Storm Lake over Thanksgiving break. It was there that I completed an incredibly difficult quantitative chemistry exam. It was peaceful, quiet, a wonderful break from college. It's amazing the amount of hitchhiking I did back then, including a two or three trips "cross-country" -- from west coast to North Dakota, or North Dakota to east coast.

**********************************
The Bakken

Active rigs:


4/15/201704/15/201604/15/201504/15/201404/15/2013
Active Rigs512991183186

Commodities: along with oil, it appears a number of other North Dakota commodities are well above normal. From The San Luis Obispo Tribune:
  • all wheat: 206 million bushels, up 3% year-over-year
  • total durum wheat: up 52%
  • corn stocks: 306 million bushels, up 53%
  • soybean stocks: 62 million bushes, up 61%
  • others: sunflower stocks up; barley and oats stocks were down
And, of course, the recent report that North Dakota is #1 in honey production, well ahead of whatever state is in second place.

******************************
The Physics Page

The other day I made some notes from Gino Segre's Ordinary Geniuses but I was unable to find what I was really looking for. It was a library book so I couldn't write notes in the margins and I had failed to put a "yellow post-it" note to mark it. I've been reading and re-reading the book but I finally found it, beginning on page 181:
Alpher, Gamow, and Herman's work created a big stir in 1948, but it was quickly criticized for not delivering what it had promised: a successful proposal for how to synthesize atomic nuclei. It seemed to explain why the universe is composed overwhelmingly of hydrogen and helium, but it stumbled in tryint to show how all the other nuclei are produced. The reason for why it failed is simple. Starting out with a universe rich in neutrons and protons, it is relatively easy to form a helium nucleus (two neutrons and two protons), while a hydrogen nucleus (nothing but a single proton) is there from the start. But reaching nuclei past hydrogen and helium requires an intermediate state that is simply not present.
There are no stable nuclei having a total of either five or eight nucleons (protons and neutrons), and without them, one cannot go beyond hydrogen and helium in the early universe. 
A proton or a neutron can collide with a helium nucleus, but the resulting combination (1+4 = 5) will break up before providing a stepping-stone to larger nuclei; the same is true for an encounter between two helium nuclei (4+4 = 8). The former combination requires a stable nucleus wiht five protons and neutrons, and the latter, one with eight.
Neither exists. 
Nor can one imagine three nuclei coming together at once, too unlikely an event in a rapidly expanding universe.
In plain language, it seemed easy to create hydrogen and helium, but impossible to go beyond that

Responding To A Reader's Comment Regarding CLR Completion Solutions -- April 15, 2017

From a reader's comment:
CLR is definitely modifying its frac effort recently. Check out well file 31838 for Charlotte 7X-22H. Wonder what the X means? Interesting this well was fracked with a huge amount of sand and fluid for CLR, had great results, and so far has had little impact on several other Charlotte wells in the same drilling unit. 
Another interesting well is 32606 which is a 2nd bench TF well. Not quite as much frac effort but pretty good results also. 46 stages on 32606 I believe which is unusual for CLR.
For more on #32606, see this post.

For 31883:
  • 31838, 1,267, CLR, Charlotte 7X-22H, Banks, 4 sections, 30 stages; 14.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum -- 
The reader asked about the "X" designation. Hard to say: the original Charlotte 7X-22H well was DRY, and 31838 was a "replacement. #31838, running along a section line and in a 4-section (5,260-acre drilling unit) would be considered a unit line well, I suppose. It's possible the "X" refers to the "experimental amount of proppant being used, but if you want to go down that line of reasoning, then one might want to take a look at this post. Pay particular attention to two things:
  • no one horizontals in the area
  • two horizontals targeting different formations