Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Talk Of Nuclear Winter Hits North Korea -- March 14, 2017

Talk Of Nuclear Winter Peace Hits North Korea
Thank you, Mr Trump

Updates

January 18, 2019: announced today, North Korea's Kim and US president Trump will meet at the end of February, 2019. Kim has the advantage: Trump's first term is almost over; the mainstream media has convinced Americans that Trump's "success" so far has been nothing but failure. Kim simply has to "dither" for two more years, hoping that someone like Bernie Sanders gets elected. Or, same facts, but Trump eager to deal. 
December 13, 2018: groundbreaking ceremony for cross-border rail and road.
 
August 11, 2018: tea leaves suggest the Trump - Kim love fest is cooling. It started cooling after Kim visited China following the summit in Singapore. The love fest may have worsened due to the US-China trade war. 

June 22, 2018: rival Koreas will to hold reunions of war-separated families, August 20 - August 26, 2018.

June 12, 2018: North Korea agrees to complete de-nuclearization.

May 2, 2018:



April 26, 2018: who would have thought -- negotiators are working toward a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. North Korea will denuclearize with no preconditions. Kim and Moon meet at the DMZ.

March 27, 2018: North Korea sending huge delegation to Beijing by train -- Kim Jung Un might be among the delegation -- this would be the Asian communist pre-summit meeting prior to the US-NOKO summit in May, 2018. This is really quite incredible Regardless of how this plays out, it appears, that at least for the moment, Trump has managed to shake things up in Asia. At the end of the day, China needs to keep its billions of adolescent males employed.

March 26, 2018: Kim Jung Un making unprecedented visit to Beijing -- going by train. Unprecedented. Going to Beijing. Some suggest that Kim Jung Un is serious about denuclearization. This will incredibly interesting if an announcement of this nature is announced before summer -- one wonders if the mainstream media will even cover the announcement.

March 18, 2018: talk about a turn of events. Through South Korean intermediaries, North Korea has invited to meet one-on-one with President Trump, suggesting they are ready to talk disarmament. Congress has lets NoKo know that they will not let Kim Jung Un "play" Trump.

September 22, 2017: NK threatens to test H-bomb over the Pacific Ocean.

September 15, 2017: NK launches another missile over Japan. 

August 8, 2017: President Trump's most recent verbal response is clearer than ever

July 30, 2017: Less than a month ago, the dovish South Korea president did not want US THAAD (anti-missile protection); now that NOKO has launched two ICBM missiles in the past 48 hours, now he wants his own nuclear missiles. What a naive politician. Finally sees the light.

July 28, 2017: NOKO launches an ICBM with a range that can hit the US. Within 24 hours, a political hack is fired as Trump's chief of staff, and replaced by a retired US Marine general.

May 14, 2017: NOKO launches another ballistic missile. Goes 500 miles. For NOKO: war is an existential event. For the US: war is a military exercise.

May 1, 2017: Japan dispatches its largest warship since WWII to protect US supply ship from Kim Jong-un's missiles; supply ship apparently resupplying the USS Carl Vinson off Korean peninsula. 

April 4, 2017: NOKO fires missile into sea off east coast of South Korea. Meanwhile, USA has warned that the "clock has run out" on North Korea. Chinese President XI to meet with President Trump this weekend. Can anyone say "Chinese fireworks?"

March 28, 2017: NOKO could be in final stages of nuke test; Japan pre-emptive strike?

March 17, 2017: no links; stories everywhere. Rhetoric rising. SecState Tillerson says diplomacy has failed. Says all options -- including nuclear weapons -- in SOKO, Japan -- are on the table. To the best of my knowledge this is the first the US has confronted NOKO mano a mano, instead of easing sanctions. 

March 14, 2017: Trump losing his patience ... after only 54 days. LOL.

April 6, 2013: update on the Korean Missile Crisis - a) the US scuttles a long-planned ICBM test launch out of Vandenberg, CA; b) North Korea says its strategic objective is to gain more concessions form the West; c) past years suggest that food situation is now at its worst -- the end of a harsh winter; food supplies running out ahead of a new growing season; need food imported from the west. It will be interesting to see if President Obama gives into North Korea and everything returns to "normal." If so, this has turned out to be nothing more than another episode in this long story.

Original Post 
This too may pass but the increasing number of stories on NOKO, SOKO, Japan, China, US could suggest to someone that the narrative in Washington, DC, is about to change. My hunch is the US, Japan, and SOKO are having some serious discussions.

"Boost phase interceptor" is the new catchphrase.

With Regard To Oil And The Price Of Oil -- For Both Russia And Saudi Arabia These Are Existential Issues -- March 14, 2017

This is quite interesting.

Three countries with existential issues:
  • North Korea
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Russia
For decades, as North Korea came closer and closer to the edge, they upped the nuclear ante and the western world responded by sending them cash. Under Trump, that has come to an end. Instead of cash, Trump is sending drones and US Navy Seal Team 6.

By the way, it's not the US shale sector that's riding the coattails of Saudi's cut in oil production, it's Russia. Russia is taking advantage of Saudi's predicament.

By the way, did you all see the break-even price in the Bakken today? $20. [Update: see first comment.]

Permian doesn't come close to $20 for those who paid $40,000/acre for fringe areas in the Permian. This could get ugly.


Baby Makes Her Blue Jeans Talk, Dr Hook

Timing Is Everything -- March 14, 2017

Fact: Ivanka's fashion line setting records, surging. No links, story everywhere.

Fact: Nieman-Marcus, Nordstrom drop Ivanka's line.

Fact: Nieman-Marcus about to go under.

*********************
Quick! A Pop Quiz

What does Dr Hook's Sylvia's Mother and Johnny Cash's A Boy Named Sue have in common?

*******************
Quick! A Pop Quiz

To what classical music is Allan Sherman's Camp Granada set to?

**************************************************************
Answers To Pop Quizzes

1. Sylvia's Mother  and A Boy Named Sue: both written by Shel Silverstein. I came across that only by serendipity. The latter song has always intrigued me and I was sure Johnny Cash had written it; he wrote much of his own music (at least I thought). The more I read about Silverstein the more "amazed" I am. It is amazing how creative some folks are.

2. The second one turns out not to be difficult at all, but I had no clue. Wikipedia provides the answer: Camp Granada was set to Dance of the Hours, from an opera.


About a month or so ago, I began listening to classical music while driving. It turns out that if our marriage is to survive, May and I have to listen to classical music when we are in the car listening to the radio. Both she and I are newsaholics. She loves NPR, David Muir (ABC), and Steven Colbert. She detests Donald Trump. I prefer country music, "classical" rock, and some contemporary music which she also cannot tolerate. She loves classical music which I used to "not like at all," to put it mildly. Now I love classical music and that's all I listen to when in the car. With one exception. Sophia loves the "early Beatles" so she often asks to hear the Beatles when I drive her home from Tutor Time, but she, too, now enjoys classical music, and even asks for such music by name ("classical music").

I happened to hear Dance of the Hours the other day and immediately recognized Allan Sherman's song. Camp Granada was one of my favorite songs back in the day.

By the way, Allan Sherman had a line in Camp Granada that seemed "out of place" in the song. However, after reading Wikipedia, the dots connect. It is quite amazing. I do believe public school students in the northeastern (US) schools back in the '40s and '50s had an incredible education.  I assume not so true any more.

Random Look At Well With Post-Shut-In-Jump-In-Production -- March 14, 2017

To the best of my knowledge, this well was not refracked. It was fracked once, back in 2013, according to FracFocus. Seventeen (17) days at 12,079 bbls extrapolates to 21,000 bbls for a 30-day month. Regular and/or long-time readers can connect the dots.

The well:
  • 25442, 1,581, QEP, Kummer 2-6-7BH, Grail, t10/13; cum 260K 1/17; 
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20173167226860155216219150011185
BAKKEN12-2016311040010352324517678164271213
BAKKEN11-201617120791157269811641916302117
BAKKEN10-201617385121311310
BAKKEN9-201626618728101992
BAKKEN8-2016127487371121061895155
BAKKEN7-20163121432201310324018591354
BAKKEN6-2016302802297344529952871100
BAKKEN5-20163130803030494335633560
BAKKEN4-201630262525533551691161417
BAKKEN3-201631340532726602937285322

This Is What Bakken 2.0 Looks Like: Pad Drilling; More Rigs; A Few New Permits; A Few Permits Renewed; DUCs Completed -- March 14, 2017

Active rigs:


3/14/201703/14/201603/14/201503/14/201403/14/2013
Active Rigs4631112191187

Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday, this is what Bakken 2.0 and pad drilling looks like; expect much more of the same from here on out:
  • 32087, 2,133, QEP, KDM 6-7-6BHD, Grail, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t9/16; cum 88K 1/17;
  • 32105, 1,763, QEP, KDM 5-7-6BHD, Grail, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 84K 1/17;
  • 32107, 1,541, QEP, KDM 1-7-6T2HD, Grail, Three Forks second bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t1/17; cum 83K 1/17;
  • 32343, 1,119, QED, KDM 1-7-6T3HD, Grail, Three Forks third bench, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 70K 1/17;
  • 32344, 2,251, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T2HD, Grail, Three Forks second bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/16; cum 90K 1/17;
  • 32345, 618, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T3HD, Grail, Three Forks third bench, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 67K 1/17;
Five new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (4), Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Truax (Williams), Big Meadow (Williams)
  • Comments: for more on Liberty Resources, see Liberty Resources Management at Bakken operators; most of Liberty Resources are in the Ray-Tioga area; most in the McGregor oil field; this is the first location in Big Meadow; Big Meadow is a small field, about 8 sections in northeast Williams County (northeast of Williston); the field currently has only one producing well, a Bakken well
Five permits renewed:
  • Enerplus (2): a Glacier permit, and an Acadia permit, both in Dunn County
  • Kaiser-Francis (2): an Ecko, and a Diesel permit, both in Stark County
  • Oasis: a Hanover Federal permit in Williams County
One permit canceled:
  • MRO: a Dora USA permit in Mountrail County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 28990, 1,572, CLR,  Radermecher 3-22H,Camel Butte, t2/17; cum --
  • 30768, 612, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33D, Heart Butte, t1/17; cum --
  • 30769, 531, XTO, FBIR Grinnell34X-33G, Heart Butte, t1/17; cum --
  • 31943, 690, Enerplus, Furlong 151-94-21A-28H, Antelope, Sanish, t2/17; cum --
  • 31944, 972, Enerplus, Water 151-94-16DH-TF, Antelope, Sanish, t2/17; cum --
  • 31945, 392, Enerplus, Fire 151-94-16DH, Antelope, Sanish, t2/17; cum --
White Rock Oil & Gas temporarily abandoned six wells, all in Madison County; older permit numbers

*******************************

32345, see above, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T3HD, Grail:

 DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20171464424404
12-20162693840777
11-20161995017121
10-201649610
9-2016440

32344, see above, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T2HD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20171924844128
12-20162420937459
11-20161747214049
10-2016280080
9-20168210

32343, see above, QED, KDM 1-7-6T3HD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20172009450575
12-20162255136765
11-20161548015142
10-2016111850

32107, see above, QEP, KDM 1-7-6T2HD, Grail:

Oil RunsMCF Sold
1-20172459941121
12-20161935324927
11-20161752113746
10-2016215180


32105, see above, QEP, KDM 5-7-6BHD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20171043110636
12-20161069412254
11-20163345229394
10-2016296570

32087, see above, QEP, KDM 6-7-6BHD, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20171197029306
12-20161036420105
11-20162225517226
10-2016351630
9-201684700

Market And Energy Page, Part II -- March 14, 2017

From David Sheppard, via twitter:
Goldman Sachs is sounding almost as rattled as the Saudis. Backwardation call has taken a bit of a shoeing in the past week.
Also from twitter:
Trump tax cut may save oil explorers $10 billion, boost drilling. Link provided
Javier Blas at twitter has document suggesting the Saudis are really rattled, saying ...
"the difference between what the market observes as production, and the actual supply levels in any given month, is due to operational factors that are influenced by storage adjustments."
How does one explain:
  • OPEC exports in February exceeded those in January?
  • Kuwait has added significantly more rigs since the November, 2016, meeting?
Operational factors? LOL.
****************************
Closing

Dow 30: closed down 0.2% or about 45 points

WTI: settles at $47.99. Let's call it $48.

The Shale Revolution, Part 2 -- March 14, 2017

It took a bit of doing, but I found the original links for this two-part article. A reader -- thank you, very much, alerted me to Part 2, but Part 1 is just as important.

So, here is the original link, with links to Part 1 and Part 2, which, I believe, will download as PDFs in both cases.

Part 1 was discussed at this post. Part 1 has to do with the technology and the shale revolution.

Part 2, in this post, has to do with how the shale revolution is changing global geo-politics. This second part is titled: Shale is reshaping the world: three new wars.
  • Russia vs Europe
  • Iran vs Saudi Arabia
  • an Asian tanker war
When I look at just this much of this interview I think immediately: politicians like Angela Merkel and Ted Cruz won't understand it. Business men like Rex Tillerson and Donald Trump will understand it. Ideologues like Barack Obama and Al Gore won't understand it, but worse, they both bet on the wrong horse. Even if one doesn't understand horse-racing one can still get lucky and win a big race (my wife has proven that); but in Al Gore's case, and in Barack Obama's case, they bet on the wrong horse.

Both Part 1 and Part 2 have been archived.

The Shale Revolution, Part 1 -- March 14, 2017

It took a bit of doing, but I found the original links for this two-part article. A reader -- thank you, very much, alerted me to Part 2, but Part 1 is just as important.

This post is on Part 1 of that two-part article; this is the link to the post in which I will discuss Part 2 of that two-part article. 

So, here is the original link, with links to Part 1 and Part 2, which, I believe, will download as PDFs in both cases.

In the very first answer to the very first question in Part 1, one gets the feeling that this article is a must-read. 

The interviewee interpreted the first question to be this: "we've" been doing horizontal drilling and fracking since at least 1947. What's different this time that has made it so successful? The answer:  seismic technology.

From my August 19, 2010 post:
Largest array: North Dakota has the largest buried microseismic array in the world, Geo News, July, 2010.
Back to the recent article:
Seismic has been around in the industry since the late 1970s. It's not new, either. But the old seismic is a radically different creature from what we have today. It's like comparing a Toyota hybrid to an 18-wheel from the 1950s. Yes, technically, they're of the same technological tree, but they're so radically different. With the old seismic, you have these giant bulbs of oil-saturated rock that didn't require much of a sonar cross-section to show up when you would do seismic. The news one can pick up deposits about the size of a 500-ml water bottle.
Did I mention that North Dakota has the largest buried microseismic array in the world. Something tells me that some of the new acreage bought in the Permian for $40,000/acre does not have such an array in place, yet.

And, note: that was in 2010 that it was reported that North Dakota had the largest buried microseismic array in the world. That was seven years ago; one can imagine how much has been done since then.

Very early in the article, the interviewee says that "micro-seismic is so new it did not exist 30 months ago."

Obviously there's a disconnect. But we will press on.

Later: re-fracking -- going back to fields for the second, third, and fourth time. One can leave the micro-seismic geophones in place, to be used the next time a well is re-fracked, or a new well is fracked for the first time.

The interviewee suggests that most companies are not yet using micro-seismic technology.

So many incredible data points in the article, like this one, which I have said so many times, I have lost count:
"Rig count is now a meaningless number in shale plays in general, and even more so in shale plays using  micro-seismic technology."
I'm going to quit there for now.

The articles have been archived. 

Lynn Helms, NDIC, Talks About The Bakken -- The Williston Herald -- March 14, 2017

Link here.

Note comments regarding Marathon.

Reminder: articles in small regional newspapers tend to disappear after a few months or become accessible only through subscription.

Five data points that jumped out at me:
  • Break-even in the Bakken: "When we compare the fourth quarter of 2015 to 2016, we see break evens have dropped $9 to $20 a barrel."
  • DUCs: 800. This summer could be the summer of DUCs -- something I posted a few days ago, before I saw the Lynn Helms' soundbite.
  • Fringe: the fringe is becoming more productive, though too few wells to make more definitive statement
  • Three Forks: produces water 1.5 to oil; vs 0.77 for a Bakken well
  • Natural gas-to-crude oil ratio: increases as crude oil depletes; pressure lessens

Random Update Of Completions In The Bakken -- March 14, 2017

Current look at completions in the Bakken, March 4, 2017 - March 14, 2017.
  • Third column: number of stages
  • Fourth column: proppant, generally sand, in millions of pounds
32874
Newfield
1
51
7.6
Sand Creek

31161
HRC
1
33
4.9
McGregory Buttes

31570
Whiting
1
44
9.2
Bell

31187
Enerplus




DUC
32463
SM Energy




DUC
32327
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley

31948
Whiting
1
44
9.2
Bell

31712
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley

29790
Enerplus




DUC
25407
QEP




DUC
31704
Whiting



Twin Valley

25408
QEP



Heart Butte

32264
Whiting
1
35
7.3
Poe
DUC
25409
QEP



Heart Butte

27596
Petro-Hunt
1
50
4.8
Llittle Knife

31708
Whiting
1
35
6.9
Twin Valley

32119
EOG



Parshall
DUC
32457
Hess



Blue Buttes
DUC
32462
SM Energy



Ambrose
DUC
30825
WPX
1
41
6.1
Reunion Bay

30826
WPX
1
40
6.0
Reunion Bay

32326
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley

30828
WPX
1
42
6.1
Reunion Bay

31707
Whiting
1
35
7.2
Twin Valley

31710
Whiting
1
35
7.1
Twin Valley

32329
Whiting
1
35
10.0
Twin Valley

32755
XTO
1



DUC


17
37
6.7



*****************************
Spring Break


Beatles on the video.
Bananagram on the board.
Painting.