Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Rolfson S Wells, Siverston Oil Field

See also this post with graphics

The wells:
  • 32210, 1,060, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198, 43-20 10T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 210K 4/19; (#20464)
  • 32209, 1,774, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 9B, Siverston, t12/16; cum 293K 4/19;
  • 32239, 1,640, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 41-33 14BX, Siverston, t2/17; cum 275K 4/19;
  • 32018, 817, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 13T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t1/17; cum 206K 4/19; proppant: mix of 100 mesh; 40/70 white; 30/50 white; 30/50 CRC;
  • 32017, 901, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 12B, Siverston, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 1296K 4/19;
  • 32016, 1,554, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 11T, Sivertson, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 259K 4/19; [note first comment --
Natural gas gross revenue from this well [#332016] is slightly over 3/4 million bucks at $2.58/mmbtu.
This was the recent price at the Watford City transfer point (Northern Border) as per the recent Director's Cut.
Adds up.
  • 31992, 847, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 8T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st bench, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 225K 4/19;
  • 31991, 1,311, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 7B, Siverston, Bakken, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 282K 4/19;
  • 31990, 1,216, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 6T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st Bench, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 208K 4/19;
  • 31989, 1,658, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 272K 4/19;
  • 31971, 2,372, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st Bench, 50 stages, 9.7 million lbs, t10/16; cum 211K 4/19;
  • 31970, 2,125, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston, almost 100K in first two months, 50 stages, 10.1 million lbs; t11/16; cum 331K 4/19;
  • 31969, 1,353, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston, Three Forks 1st Bench, 50 stages, 10 million lbs;  t11/16; cum 298K 4/19;
  • 20465, 1,305, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 20-17H, Siverston, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t9/11; cum 299K 4/19; (off-line since 6/16); back on line as of 1/17; and, yes, there was a jump in production when it came back on line; FracFocus as of 6/17 has no record of re-frack;
  • 20464, 1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 1.95 million lbs; t12/11; cum 317K 4/19; (off-line since 6/16); a re-frac according to a September 4, 2016, sundry form; FracFocus as of 6/17 has no record of re-frack;
Graphic will be posted once the horizontals are placed on the NDIC map.


************************************************** 
31970, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

31989, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20164695479977
11-20163902147861

The Closer, T+26 -- February 15, 2017

Damn good news out of South Carolina: Boeing workers reject union. Follows on heels of:
  • Volkswagen, Chattanooga, TN, 2014; narrowly voted down a union
  • RJ Reynolds Tobacco, North Carolina, narrowly rejected a union; third defeat in 6 1/2-year effort, 2011
Damn good op-ed. A very, very good op-ed on the Oroville Dam (California) in the Los Angeles Times. Written by a fifth-generation rural Californian and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. The op-ed speaks for itself; no additional comments necessary.

Damn good press conference. Press conference earlier today with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump between two long-time friends. One may have seen the president's new style regarding press conferences with foreign statesmen:
  • he will get them out of the way quickly; they are a waste of his time; political theater
  • his remarks will be brief
  • he will ignore the mainstream press
  • he will perfunctorily answer one or two questions and then end it

Daily White House press briefings: I would be surprised if Sean Spicer doesn't learn from his boss. If not, I will be sorely disappointed; if Spicer doesn't learn from his boss, he may be the next to be fired. I don't think the President wants his press spokesman to get more coverage than the president; Trump doesn't want his reality show ratings to be second to those of the "Spicer soap opera."

Flynn. Much, much more to this than meets the eyes. This whole episode should alarm guys like Zbigniew Brzezinski, Colin Powell, and Henry Kissinger.

GDP Estimate For 1Q17 Keeps Dropping -- February 15, 2017

Latest GDP Now forecast: 2.2 percent — February 15, 2017 :
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on February 15, down from 2.7 percent on February 9.
The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent after the retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were released this morning.
The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to growth fell from -0.20 percentage points to -0.39 percentage points after the industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Business Inventories report from the U.S. Census Bureau were released this morning.
The inventory contribution forecast for February 9 was corrected to account for data from the wholesale trade report not incorporated in last Thursday's GDPNow update. The correction did not change the model's GDP growth forecast after rounding.

Six DUCs Reported As Completed; Nineteen (19) Wells Approved For Confidential List - February 15, 2017

Active rigs:


2/15/201702/15/201602/15/201502/15/201402/15/2013
Active Rigs3841137185182

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 31607, 1,289, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 3T, Siverston, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t8/16; cum 124K 12/16;
  • 31608, 1,799, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 4B, Siverston, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t9/16; cum 114K 12/16;
  • 31670, 2,063, CLR, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages, 14 million lbs, t8/16; cum 120K 12/16;
Three new permits:
  • Operator: Marathon
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments: all in Lot 1 2-150-93
Nineteen (19) wells approved for confidential status.

This is pretty cool. Just a few days ago (February 7, 2017), I noted that a Hendrickson well was off-line suggesting that neighboring wells were about ready to be fracked. Lo and behold! Completely accurate. Hendrickson wells have been fracked; expect to see that older Hendrickson well come back on status soon.

Six (6) producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29945, 552, CLR, Hendrickson 11-36H2, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum --
  • 29946, 1,283, CLR, Hendrickson 10-36H, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum --
  • 29947, 740,  CLR, Hendrickson 9-36H1, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum --
  • 30013, 2,075, CLR, Hendrickson 12-36H, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum --
  • 30508, 1,468, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-7, Blue Buttes, t1/17; cum --
  • 30509, 2,216, Hess, BB-Eide-LE-151-95-3328H1, Blue Buttes, t1/17; cum --

Request For Information On CLR's Anna Pad In Last Chance Oil Field -- February 15, 2017

Updates

May 2, 2019: most recent production numbers (March, 2019) -- production about the same as previous month; might be up a bit; March -- a couple of days longer than February;

February 22, 2019: from the March, 2019, hearing dockets --
27411, CLR, Last Chance-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 27/28/33/34-154-100 and establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 4/5/6/7/8/9-153-100, two wells; Williams, McKenzie County. It appears these wells will pay royalties to those holding interest in CLR's Anna wells, but these will be on a 4-section drilling unit, not a two-section unit. 
February 5, 2019: additional graphics.


It should be noted that in the graphic below, the new Marcia wells, even the section line (2560-acre spacing well) will not be in any of the drilling units "occupied" by the Anna wells.



February 2, 2019: production data has been updated (see below, the individual wells). In addition, this is the updated graphic (unchanged from before). Currently there are nine Anna wells in this drilling unit. The original Anna well runs north to south (#23279). The other eight Anna wells run south to north. Those eight wells: four are middle Bakken and four are Three Forks first bench.  All current Anna wells are pretty much in the east half of the drilling unit. Eventually CLR will drill eight wells on the west side. In addition, there will be two wells along the section lines. This may not happen for years, but it will happen eventually. When CLR does drill those wells, the new wells will be even better than the current Anna wells.




June 6, 2018: production data for all the CLR Anna has been updated. In addition, more detailed look at the production of the original CLR Anna well is posted here.


December 28, 2017: updated graphic --



Map to the CLR Anna wells:


Satellite photo of the area:


Photos:



 
September 12, 2017: note post-shut-in-jump-in-production here.

June 5, 2017: update here

April 25, 2017: update here.

April 14, 2017: this is pretty cool. In the original post it was noted that a producing well near CLR's "Anna" wells in Last Chance oil field had not yet been taken off-line. Now, with the Director's Cut posted for February, 2017, data, we see that #23279 has been taken off-line. This means only one thing: CLR is getting ready to frack (or has begun fracking) the Anna wells noted in the original post below.

Original Post 

A sundry form for #30157 was received by the NDIC on December 20, 2016:
Please see the attached supplemental history of the well from 9/9/2016 - 11/9/2016. Continental Resources, Inc. had requested NCW status of this well but now is schedule (sic) to begin stimulation of the Anna multi-well pad beginning on 1/2/2016 (sic).
It's unusual for typographical errors on such sundry forms but the information on the form suggests the form was completed on/about November 8, 2016; it clearly shows that it was received by the NDIC on December 20, 2016, which both suggest that CLR was planning to stimulate the wells on this 8-well pad in early 2017.

A sundry form for #30156 had the very same information and the same dates, but interestingly, a pen-and-ink "2017?" over the "2016." This notation was probably made by someone at NDIC. 

  • 30157, 2,057, CLR, Anna 5-34H, Last Chance, API: 33-105-03914, t7/17; cum 201K 5/19; holding up well; producing 15,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 9,000 bbls in 5/18; produced 5,000 bbls in 1/19;
  • 30156, 1,194, CLR, Anna 4-34H1, Last Chance, t8/17; cum 120K 5/19; production falling; API: 33-105-03913, producing 14,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 8,000 bbls in 1/18; produced 2,000 bbls in 12/18;
  • 30155, 1,306, CLR, Anna 3-34H, Last Chance, t7/17; cum 117K 5/19;  production falling; API: 33-105-03912, producing 14,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 2,000 bbls in 3/18; produced 2,500 bbls in 12/18;
  • 30154, 1,320, CLR, Anna 2-34H, Last Chance, API: 33-105-03911, t7/17; cum 149K 5/19; produciton holding up; producing 10,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 7,000 bbls in 3/18; produced 2,500 bbls in 12/18;
  • 32969, 1,391, CLR, Anna 9-34H1, Last Chance,  API: 33-105-04292, t8/17; cum 133K 5/19; production falling; producing 16,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 8,500 bbls in 4/18; producing only 400 bbls in 12/18; and only produced for 16 days in 3/19;
  • 32968, 920, CLR, Anna 8-34H1, Last Chance, API: 33-105-04291, t9/17; cum 114K 5/19; okay; producing 15,000 bbls in 10/17; producing 5,700 bbls in 5/18; produced only 900 bbls in 12/18; and only produced for 23 days;
  • 32967, 1,104, Anna 7-34H, Last Chance, t7/17; cum 158K 5/19; maybe improving (5/19); API: 33-105-04290; producing 20,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 8,000 bbls in 3/18 (only 21 days); produced only 700 bbls in 12/18 and on-line for the entire month;
  • 32966, 1,391, CLR, Anna 6-34H1, Last Chance, t8/17; cum 136K 5/19; production improving nicely (5/19); API: 33-105-04289; producing13,000 bbls in 10/17; produced 6,400 bbls in 4/18; produced 3,000 bbls in 12/18;
FracFocus reveals no frack data for those wells (as of date of original post; I assume we will eventually see frack data).

Another well in that same section is still in production; it was taken off-line for a few months when the new wells were fracked:
  • 23279, 767, CLR, Anna 1-27H, t11/12; cum 360K 5/19; (not re-fracked); produced 3,000 bbls 12/18;
This is the production profile of #23279 after it came back on-line after neighboring wells were fracked:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20172088448752134531003482641770
BAKKEN9-2017277556734116617916854373731
BAKKEN8-201731967494322767311101111010
BAKKEN7-20173191689744311781080110695106
BAKKEN6-20173019878195576299621735192112524
BAKKEN5-20173018710190838679919108155723536
BAKKEN4-2017260701071770177
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-2017170226131020102
BAKKEN12-201624182017261116267926790
BAKKEN11-201630216523321368307230720
BAKKEN10-201631245324951542335933590
BAKKEN9-20163024722386172836813101580
BAKKEN8-20163127352585188833402550790
BAKKEN7-2016311790167414781897982915
BAKKEN6-20163016521941107223831763620
BAKKEN5-20163123512168150733262706620
BAKKEN4-20163024292846166838083208600
BAKKEN3-20163127352420176546334013620

Staggering -- US Crude Oil And Gasoline Stocks Soaring -- February 15, 2017

One has to remember that the graphs were similar a year ago, where the current crude oil stocks were well above the historical range. Now, a year later, the graphics are just as staggering.

And the price of crude oil? Hardly moves. 

From John Kemp, via Twitter:


February, 2017, NDIC Director's Cut Posted

Personal comments (not the Director's comments): The decrease in production in North Dakota in December, 2016, was probably due to weather conditions as much as anything else. That will continue through January, 2017, according to the NDIC. In December, 2016, fracking was not possible on 15 days due to high wind, and 10 days due to extreme cold (most likely many of those days "overlapped").

Although the number of DUCs decreased a bit month-over-month in December, 2016, the number of inactive wells increased by 54, now up to 1,573. 

A newly fracked well might produce 20,000 - 40,000 bbls for the first full month. Inactive wells, more than a year old, are probably producing in the range of 1,000 to 3,000 bbls/ month.

Back of the envelope:
  • 20 new wells unfracked, due to weather, other reasons: 400,000 bbls/month (13,000 bopd)
  • 54 additional wells go inactive: 108,000 bbls/month (3,500 bopd) 
****************************
The Director's Cut
February, 2017 
Link here.

DUCs: 807, down 32 from previous report.
Results of the poll in which readers were asked whether they thought DUCs would increase/decrease in number month-over-month:
  • more DUCs: 55%
  • fewer DUCs: 45%
Total daily production decreased since previous report:
  • December, 2016: 942,455 bopd
  • November, 2016: 1,034,484 bopd
  • Delta: 92,029 bopd
  • Delta: - 8.8% 
Producing wells:
  • December, 2016: 13,337 (preliminary, all-time high was the previous month, November, 2016, at 13,520)
  • November, 2016: 13,520
Permitting: 
  • December, 2016: 81 drilling
  • November, 2016: 76 drilling
ND sweet crude price:
  • Today: $42.50
  • January, 2017: $40.75
  • December, 2016: $39.93
  • November, 2016: $34.58
Rig count:
  • January, 2017: 38
  • December, 2016: 40
  • November, 2016: 37
The number of well completions decreased slightly from 84 (final) in November, 2016, to 81 (preliminary) in December, 2016.

Weather:
  • Fifteen (15) days with winds too strong for completion work (greater than 35 mph)
  • Nine (9) days with temperatures below -10 degrees F. 
  • That was in December; more of the same is predicted for January, 2017. 
Capital movement to the Permian, along with low oil prices, lifting of sanctions on Iran, and a weak global economy depressed the rig count, from the Director's Cut.

Flaring: statewide - 14%; FBIR - 16%

Natural gas capture rate: statewide - 86%; FBIR - 84%
  • current mandate: 85% - November 1, 2016 - October 31, 2018
  • future mandate: 88% - November, 2018 - October 31, 2020
  • beginning November 1, 2020: 91%

The Political Page, T+26 -- February 15, 2017

The market under two different administrations:

Under President Obama:
  • the market would open moderately higher
  • President Obama would hold a press conference or make a speech
  • the market would tank
Under President Trump:
  • the market opens slightly negative, flat, or slightly up
  • President Trump holds a meeting, makes a short statement
  • the market surges
***********************************
 Life Imitates Art

This puts everything into perspective:
  • House of Cards
  • Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Political assassinations.

Spies.

Pretty funny.

*********************
Trump - Netanyahu Press Conference

Four questions:

Alternating between host / visitor. Host calls on first press representative and then the visitor calls for question, and it continues. Today's questions came from:
  • Christian News Service (CNS) News: link here.
  • Foreign press
  • Townhall: link here.
  • Foreign press

*****************
Duped by Fake Tweet

Nancy Pelosi, Elijah Cummings, and ... drum roll ... The New York Times. Story here.

***********************
Star Rising

Keith Ellison remains the top candidate, Chairman, DNC. Even David Duke supports this candidate.

NDIC Hearing Dockets, Supplement Case, March, 2017

NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here

Only four cases are on the docket right now for March:

Thursday, March 2, 2017

25640, Luff Exploration, unitize Haley-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25641, Luff Exploration, unitize Haley-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25642, Luff Exploration, unitize Corey Butte-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25643, Luff Exploration, unitize Corey Butte-Red River Unit, Bowman County

Corey Butte:
  • extreme far southwest corner of North Dakota
  • 4.5 sections
  • 5 active wells
  • horizontal Red River wells
Haley:
  • extreme far southwest corner of North Dakota, located a couple of miles to the northeast of Corey Butte
  • ~ 1 section
  • 2 active wells; 1 additional well that just "went" IA (inactive)
  • horizontal Red River wells

Market And Energy News, T+26 -- February 15, 2017

***********************
Mid-Afternoon

New records: Dow Jones up 105 points, around 20,605. 

*************************
Mid-Morning 

New records: Dow Jones up over 80 100 points. Hits a new all-time record. Hits 20,600. This is truly insane. To infinity and beyond.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Crude oil build: 9.53 million bbls; 3x forecast. Link here. This comes on top of a 14-million-bbl build last week which was about 7x forecast. And yet the price of crude oil not dropping all that much. See graphs here.

Refinery utilization: 85%

************************************************** 
Opening

DAPL: contamination of Cannonball River likely -- due to activists and Native Americans protesting pipeline. 

GDP Now: new estimate is expected to be released later today.

ObamaCare: Humana to exit ObamaCare, 2018. ObamaCare is tracked here. IRS won't reject tax filings that don't include healthcare insurance information. Shares of Aetna and Humans continue to surge.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Apple: Warren Buffett quadrupled his stake in Apple. Story here.

Walmart: Warren Buffett sold off almost all of his shares in Walmart, close to $1 billion. The story here: the end of retail as we know it. Doomsday: the demise of the big box store.

GM: looking to exit Europe; talk: sell Opel to Peugeot; would "catapult" Peugeot into being #2 auto group in Europe. Ah, yes, Peugeot. The new "poster child" for the EU?

Attention to detail/sticking to one's knitting works: Devon Energy beats profit estimates as cost cuts pay off. Data points:
  • bigger-than-expected quarterly profit
  • total operating expenses fell 67%
  • total cost savings exceeded $1 billion in 2016
  • has sold all its non-core assets; completing a $3.2 divestiture program in October
  • 2017 production expected to be about 550,000 boepd
  • EPS of 63 cents/share; compared with a loss of $11.12/share a year earlier
  • adjusted, earned 25 cents/share vs forecast of 21 cents/share
***************************
The Market

Futures:
  • Dow Jones: +26 points
  • WTI: below $53, again 
*************************
The Literature Page

Modern Painters, John Ruskin, edited and abridged by David Barrie, c. 1987.

From the introduction:
The greatest influence apparent in Volume I -- apart from the works of J. M. W. Turner himself -- is Wordsworth. 
In accordance with his espousal of the ancient theory that saw painting and poetry as "sister arts," Ruskin draws on Wordsworth for examples of good landscape "painting"; but his debt to Wordsworth extends also to the theoretical level. 
The basic argument of Volume I is closely analogous to that proposed by Wordsworth in the Preface to the Lyricl Ballds, the first publication of which in 1800 marked the birth of English Romantic poetics. 
Just as Wordsworth rejected the artifice of classical poetic diction in favour of "the real language of men," so Ruskin, more than forty years later, attacked the attempts by classical landscape painters to "improve" or idealize nature, contrasting their distortions of reality with the "truthfulness" of Turner.

Active Rigs In The Bakken Remain Steady; T+26 -- February 15, 2017

Active rigs:



2/15/201702/15/201602/15/201502/15/201402/15/2013
Active Rigs3641137185182

RBN Energy: another round of NGL infrastructure in Marcellus / Utica.

Scott Adams: manage your energy, not your time.