Thursday, February 2, 2017

Wrapping It Up For The Night -- February 2, 2017

A big "thank you" to "Outrun Change." Thank you.

I could not possibly be in a better mood. I've already got the music video for tomorrow selected and that's no easy task. It won't be as good as Sina has been the past two days, but it will be okay.

See you tomorrow.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- A Two-Month Production Record For Oasis? Older Well To Be Re-Fracked -- February 2, 2017

Updates

December 6, 2017: the graph below is updated here --



September 2, 2017: update of two wells that have come back on status; one was definitely re-fracked; not sure about the other one.

March 16, 2017: except for two of the older wells below, all of these wells are still on the confidential list. However, their production numbers are incredible. I have just looked at the January, 2017, production numbers (not updated below -- let me know if anyone is interested) many of the wells hit 50,000 bbls or nearly 50,000 bbls in one month.
 
Original Post
The Rolfson S wells:
  • 31969, 1,353, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston, t11/16; cum 203K 7/17;
  • 31970, 2,125, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston, t11/16; cum 264K 7/17;
  • 31971, 2,372, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston, t10/16; cum 167K 7/17;
  • 31989, 1,658, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston, t11/16; cum 211K 7/17;
  • 31990, 1,216, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 6T, Siverston, t11/16; cum 157K 7/17;
  • 31991, 1,311, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 7B, Siverston, t11/16; cum 203K 7/17;
  • 31992, 847, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 8T, Siverston, TF 1st bench, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 168K 7/17;
  • 32016, 1,554, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 11T, Sivertson, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 193K 7/17; [note first comment --
Natural gas gross revenue from this well [#332016] is slightly over 3/4 million bucks at $2.58/mmbtu.
This was the recent price at the Watford City transfer point (Northern Border) as per the recent Director's Cut.
Adds up.
  • 32017, 901, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 12B, Siverston, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 206K 7/17;
  • 32018, 817, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 13T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t1/17; cum 140K 7/17; proppant: mix of 100 mesh; 40/70 white; 30/50 white; 30/50 CRC
  • 32239, 1,640, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-33 14BX, Siverston, t2/17; cum 164K 7/17;
  • 32210, 1,060, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 10T, Siverston, TF 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 144K 7/17;
  • 32209, 1,774, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 9B, Siverston, t12/16; cum 202K 7/17;
  • 20464, 1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/11; cum 266K 7/17; taken off-line 6/16; off-line through 12/16; from sundry form suggesting start date of September, 2016, for this: Oasis intends to refrack the Rolfson 29-32H well at the beginning of the infill stimulations (sic) operations for the Rolfson S wells in the 29 and 32 sections of 151N98W. If [preparatory tests are sufficient], the refrack design will consist of a bullheaded diversion sequence treatment in a crosslinked fluid system with 50 diversion sequences.
  • 20465, 1,305, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-17H, Siverston, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t9/11; cum 267K 7/17; taken off-line 6/16; off-line through 12/16; back on line as of 1/17;

map
************************************************* 

32209, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20161426723419
 
32210, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20161722719061

32017, middle Bakken:

Oil RunsMCF Sold
12-2016719011443

32016, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20161415321123
 
31992, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20162977251707
11-20161313521514

31991, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20164704075296
11-20162962641451

31990, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20163151653571
11-20162655046299

31989, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20164695479977
11-20163902147861

31971, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20162158539853
11-20162995732603

31970, middle Bakken:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

31969, Three Forks:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20162650549846
11-20162823945484
10-20167903622

Original Post
 
A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to this well. I am a bit embarrassed. I had been following the Rolfson wells and then dropped the ball -- completely missed this one.
  • 31970, conf, Oasis Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston, producing; scheduled to come off the confidential list May 1, 2017 -- that's like three months from now. Just imagine!


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

From the reader's note:
  • In the first two months of production, this middle Bakken has produced more than 95,000 bbls of oil and 144,000 million cubic feet of natural gas. Using the traditional 6 to 1 natural gas-to-oil conversion, this works out to over 120,000 boe -- in the first two months
  • Oasis has excellent results on the first 25 wells in section 18/19; 17/20; and 29/32 - 151-98. The Rolfson 3BX is 5 miles north of Watford City
  • A sister well, the Rolfson 2TX has produced 55,000 bbls of oil and 95,000 MCF during November and December, 2016
  • The Rolfson 3BX falls in a class with some of the better EOG wells in the Antelope and Clarks Creek fields with two month results
Only understatement in this note: "Uffda! It will be interesting to see the 6-month and one-year totals.

Again, a huge thank you to the reader for taking the time to send the note.

Activity in this area:

Barack Obama And Bill Clinton Come Out In Support Of Donald Trump On Immigration -- February 2, 2017

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama come out in support of Donald Trump's immigration policies.


TJ Sotomayor has it exactly right. Sotomayor also knows what Steve Bannon also knows.

**************************
Rambling On A Thursday Night

There is nothing in the following rambling that would be of interest to anyone. I highly recommend no one read further. Move on. There is nothing about the Bakken in the following rambling notes. If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or scroll to the sidebar at the right.

First: I am "in love" with my Dr Dre headphones -- these are the originals. My daughter found this pair at a pawn shop -- $49. They are incredible. Playing ABBA as loud as I can take it.

My favorite company: Amazon. I love this article. Folks just don't get it, do they?

My second favorite company: Apple. I used to like it a whole lot better when Steve Jobs had a more earthly involvement, but Steve seems to be as active as ever. Certainly, Tim Cook could not have produced the numbers in this last quarter without Steve's help. It's all about the daemons.

I subscribe to New York Review of Books and London Review of Books. The latter is much, much more difficult to read. I consider myself lucky to find one essay in any issue of London Review of Books that I can enjoy. I hit a gold mine in the LRB this week. Three essays I found interesting, but the best by far was the essay by Peter Pomerantsev on the Russian writer Teffi, a writer who lived through the Russian revolution / Bolshevik revolution. Teffi puts everything about Putin/Russia into perspective.

Memo to self: watch Dr Zhivago or at least parts of it this weekend. I try to watch Dr Zhivago  at least once or twice every year; it's difficult; it's a hard movie to watch. Oh, that's right, The Super Bowl this weekend. Without the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, hardly matters. By the way, speaking of televised extravaganzas, I won't be watching the Oscars this year. Wanna bet ratings are way down by the end of the show?

Oh, I lied. I am going to mention the Bakken. It's a long, long story, but several decades ago I bought shares in a company mentioned in a Forbes magazine. The company was not Conoco, but it was an oil company and that company was selling shares for an incredibly ridiculously low price, so I bought a few shares. That company was bought by Conoco and over the years, through dividend reinvestment, the investment grew and grew and grew. And splits, and spin-offs, and upgrades and downgrades. But I just left it in the oven and let it bake. The investment will never affect my lifestyle; it will be passed to the daughters and hopefully the granddaughters. I never really followed Conoco, and never really knew where it was drilling for oil. But I always considered it a "big company" drilling in important places. And now, all those important places include the Permian, the Bakken, and the Eagle Ford. Who wudda thought?

I see COP raised its dividend, not by much, but for an oil company to raise its dividend in this environment speaks volumes. ExxonMobil is in deep doo-doo.

It's been said that some foreign crisis always tests new US presidents in their first 100 days. President Trump will go down as the first US president to test 100 countries in his first 100 days. China ("yes, let me take that phone call from Taiwan"); Canada (NAFTA); Mexico (send US troops across the border); Iran ("on notice"); Australia ("what the hell was Obama thinking?"); Germany (playing the currency game against the US); the unfortunate seven (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia); the UN (Haley: "we're taking names"); Iran (again; nothing off the table in US response to Iran's recent missile launch [which was a failure, by the way]); Israel (quit announcing new settlements, and oh, by the way, Trump supports John Kerry's two-state solution).

On again, off again. Will she or won't she? Move into the White House? First reports: nope. Then, within hours: she will. If she does, her move to the White House will be incredibly well choreographed; it will rival any reality show. Kardashian on Steroids.


The US Senate progs refuse to meet with Supreme Court justice nominee Neil Gorsuch. Reports are that the progs would need someone to translate if he were to visit. Something tells me half of those progs would be falling all over themselves to meet Mr Gorsuch, with or without a translator, if the woman pictured above accompanied the nominee. Just saying. She can eat crackers ...

Money, Money, Money, ABBA

Post-Shut-In-Production Jump In The Bakken -- February 2, 2017

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. I have no formal training and no experience in the oil "business." I may be seeing things that don't exist. This may be all "alternate facts." There may be errors in the original data. If this is important to you, go to the source. Do not make any inferences or draw any conclusions (somewhat redundant) based on what you read here. This is for my own benefit, as I try to better understand the Bakken. Do not quote me on any of this. 

See also, the note of February 24, 2017.

This is pretty cool. About a month ago a reader alerted me to the Gudmunson wells in the Elidah oil field. Here was my note then:
A reader alerted me to the Gudmunson wells in the Elidah oil field. Note: the original Gudmunson well in this drilling unit was a CLR well; all subsequent Gudmunson wells in this drilling unit are BR wells. 

Note that the two producing Gudmunson wells (#19548, #25147) were taken off-line in October, 2016, which suggests that the operator is getting ready to frack neighboring wells. However, FracFocus does not yet have any frack documents for the four wells on SI/NC status (DUCs).
As noted, that was a few months ago. A reader alerted me to #19458. A big "thank you" to the reader.

Note the post-shut-in-production-jump (PSIPJ) for #19548 (production profile below). It's been said that any well will show an increase in production by being shut-in for a significant period of time (for purposes of this discussion a "significant" period of time would be about 3 to 7 months).

It appears the Bakken is so incredibly incredible that wells don't even have to be taken off that long for pressure to build up to result in "new" production that is significant (there's that word again; for purposes of discussion, I will define "significant" in this case at least a doubling of monthly production after coming back on line).

In the production profile below, this well was off-line for less than one month -- it looks like 26 days. Just prior to being take off-line, the severe Bakken decline had this well at 1,500 bbls of oil/month at best. After coming back on line, first full month:
  • 25 days: 12,310 bbls oil (15,264 for a 31-day month); 12,900 MCF natural gas (2,666 boe for a 31-day month) = almost 18,000 boe for a 31-day month; vs 
  • less than 2,000 boe in July, 2016, shortly before it was taken off-line.
Every so often, just when I'm getting tired of blogging, and thinking there is nothing else about the Bakken to surprise, something else pops up. As I've said before, the Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

At a later date, I will add a "significant" amount of more information (including graphics) but enough for now. 

[For experienced Bakkeneers, note the amount of produced water (19,394 bbls in November, 2016, and 12,282 bbls in December, 2016: that is produced water which the operators placed in the well while it was shut down. Water production will decrease significantly over the next few months.]

Monthly production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2016251231012164122821290077415159
BAKKEN11-20161688198931193941019462293965
BAKKEN10-201651114743382542540
BAKKEN9-20163013541152498321832180
BAKKEN8-20163112201138695289528950
BAKKEN7-20163113861360535331033100
BAKKEN6-201628102611424582293227815
BAKKEN5-20163111981335517284028400
BAKKEN4-2016301172915484281128110
BAKKEN3-20163112921356525184518450
BAKKEN2-20162912151127463212221220
BAKKEN1-20163112851378457268326830
BAKKEN12-201531137413984973074301163
BAKKEN11-201529127913885033006293175
BAKKEN10-20153113531111556344734470
BAKKEN9-2015301269139548532282798430
BAKKEN8-2015311337112452328852245640
BAKKEN7-20153114301539500324620461200
BAKKEN6-20153013501346512354535450
BAKKEN5-20153115011538525375037500
BAKKEN4-20153014471304493351035100
BAKKEN3-20153114851727488379337930
BAKKEN2-20152814391561378362136210
BAKKEN1-20153116421558547419131031088
BAKKEN12-201431173017496174010399515
BAKKEN11-20143020181969732411341130
BAKKEN10-201424117414795832885287015
BAKKEN9-20143020081501750465246520
BAKKEN8-20142312451498662329132910
BAKKEN7-20143118411873668441144110
BAKKEN6-2014291713134866338903790100
BAKKEN5-20143017502291575408940890
BAKKEN4-20142918171668582343634360
BAKKEN3-201424145014645623243316875
BAKKEN2-2014281679137862243924072320
BAKKEN1-2014311865186977855605460100
BAKKEN12-2013312005210875361875817370
BAKKEN11-20133023572392862659665960
BAKKEN10-2013312139187472046684233435
BAKKEN9-20133022122324722447844780
BAKKEN8-20133121722215748435443540
BAKKEN7-20133123502236787442344230
BAKKEN6-201330214223131243358435840
BAKKEN5-2013312274227271539753815160
BAKKEN4-20132416791536790440844080
BAKKEN3-20133124752555827670567050
BAKKEN2-2013282246216481765746474100
BAKKEN1-20133125372714920846084600
BAKKEN12-201231281624961158100939753340
BAKKEN11-20123031033361765822282220
BAKKEN10-20123130623031624671567150
BAKKEN9-20123031813196680672867280
BAKKEN8-20123133503371711657165710
BAKKEN7-20123137383678937101809730450
BAKKEN6-2012174293406993871536853300
BAKKEN5-2012151845193047560365936100
BAKKEN4-2012294819518214861173899831755
BAKKEN3-20121833273052921538953890
BAKKEN2-201229485548921039900170811920
BAKKEN1-20123162466217153814764131691595
BAKKEN12-20113179067894175815466126662800
BAKKEN11-201130114641152225822067820178500
BAKKEN10-20112214450141734588351803518
BAKKEN9-201156676410000

Tomorrow -- T+14, February 2, 2017

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 27595, 920, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, 50 stages; 4.9 million lbs, t11/16; cum 16K 12/16;
  • 31515, 150, CLR, Topeak 9-12H1, Brooklyn, 30 stages; 8.9 million lbs, t8/16; cum 23K 12/16;
  • 31966, SI/NC, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Active rigs (there is something interesting to note in the number of active rigs -- if I remember, I might touch on it next week):


2/2/201702/02/201602/02/201502/02/201402/02/2013
Active Rigs4044145192187

No new permits.

Six permits renewed:
  • XTO (3): three Tobacco Garden permits, McKenzie County
  • Kaiser-Francis (2): an Agnes permit and an Albert permit, both in Stark County (kind of interesting; I had always thought of Kaiser-Francis acreage in northwest ND)
  • BTA: a 20002 Agate permit in Golden Valley County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
30698, 763, Statoil, Hospital 31-36 7H, Alger, t1/17; cum -- 

*************************************************

31515, see above, CLR, Topeak 9-12H1, Brooklyn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2016579411491
11-2016744512918
10-201634916399
9-2016313310233

27595, see above, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-31D-30-1H:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20161336210532
11-201624561976

The Closer -- T+13, February 2, 2017

Eight (8) DAPL protesters: guilty as charged.
  • no jail time (good); no taxpayer money wasted
  • fines: $1,250 - $1,685 (fines higher than one defense attorney has seen in 20-year career; don't cry: will be paid by George Soros, Michael Moore, et al)
  • special prosecutor will ask for bigger fines for later, more violent crimes
  • defense attorneys were "aghast" at size of fines; generally $300 for Class B misdemeanors
  • special prosecutor has no plans to drop majority of 600 cases
More on the way: another 76 DAPL protesters arrested in last 24 hours, camping on private land.

Is the era of oil and gas megaprojects over? From Rigzone:
When oil was trading at $18 to $20/barrel in 2001, companies were making more money in terms of percentage of profit compared with 2012, when oil prices were trading at more than $100/barrel.
ObamaCare legacy, an open book test: contractors.  From The Wall Street Journal:
Never before have American companies tried so hard to employ so few people. The outsourcing wave that moved apparel-making jobs to China and call-center operations to India is now just as likely to happen inside companies across the U.S. and in almost every industry.
The shift is radically altering what it means to be a company and a worker. More flexibility for companies to shrink the size of their employee base, pay and benefits means less job security for workers. Rising from the mailroom to a corner office is harder now that outsourced jobs are no longer part of the workforce from which star performers are promoted.
For companies, the biggest allure of replacing employees with contract workers is more control over costs. Contractors help businesses keep their full-time, in-house staffing lean and flexible enough to adapt to new ideas or changes in demand.
California taxpayers, Calpers and Clstrs, catastrophe. From The Wall Street Journal:
The board of the nation’s second-largest pension fund voted Wednesday to drop its investment target from 7.5% to 7% over two years, driving up pension costs for the state of California and some of its teachers.
The move by the California State Teachers’ Retirement System is more aggressive than a recommendation made last week by its outside consultant Milliman, which suggested a pullback to 7.25%.
*****************************
Something To Think About

Natural gas, from EIA today (a dynamic link)
Working gas in storage was 2,711 Bcf as of Friday, January 27, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 266 Bcf less than last year at this time and 59 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,652 Bcf. At 2,711 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. 
Think about that. Warmists tell us this was the second warmest winter on record for the US and yet:
  • stocks of natural gas were 266 Bcf less than last year at this time; and,
  • only 59 Bcf (statistically meaningless) above the five-year average of 2,652 Bcf
Not much margin for unforeseen emergency (as recently seen in California).

Something To Think About, Willie Nelson

Politics On T+13 -- February 2, 2017

Empty seats: the progs used to stage sit-ins, post-selfies from the floors of Congress (not allowed by rules). Now, the progs are not showing up for work.

The progs: the party of secession

Berkeley burning. Free speech not so free. Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.

Time story on Bannon. Must-read. More later.

Me and Bobby McGee, Janis Joplin

Market Stories On T+13 -- February 2, 2017

Business news: home page is now Fox Business News. I understand Fox Business now has better ratings than CNBC. Building a political base one viewer at a time.

WTI: flirting with holding steady at $54.

Jobs: first time jobless claims fall to 246,000. Plunged 14,000, much farther than forecast. The Trump excitement continues! Forecast: claims would fall to 251,000.  Claims in the previous week were revised up to 260,000 from 259,000 (inconsequential). The enthusiasm continues. It will take a week or so for the new numbers to impact the four-week average. The four-week average rose by 2,250 to 248,000.

Gasoline demand: something unsettling occurring just off the radar scope. Graphics below the "fold."

Propane: the new coal:



EPA nominee "confirmed" by Senate committee.

COP increases its dividend. Still reporting a loss but significantly beating estimates.

Apple Watch: Swatch is toast.  Omega slashes dividend but "hopes" for a more positive 2017. Apple Watch. Fitbit. Swatch. Apple Watch dominated holiday season with estimated 5.2 million shipments: by far the most popular smartwatch this past holiday season. Worldwide: Apple captured an estimated 63% of the market.

iPhone: Apple is now "taking 100% of all smart phone profits."

Buffett's apple: $348 million -- so far, and counting. But to be fair, Buffett missed Apple decades ago. Icahn, too: missed this one.

********************************
Gasoline Demand -- A Most Under-Reported Story

Comments later; two graphics:



Another reader is also stymied, noting:
I first looked at it last night, and couldn't decide what it meant, and have no further conclusions this morning.

Only 4 years of the last 18 years have a 3 week period where it's been so low: 2000, 2007, 2012, and 2014.
Meanwhile, from John Kemp via Twitter, gasoline stocks rising faster than ever:

The Opener -- T+13 -- February 2, 2017

Active rigs:


2/2/201702/02/201602/02/201502/02/201402/02/2013
Active Rigs4044145192187

RBN Energy: moving natural gas down the Texas gulf coast.

Scott Adams: President Trump and the other countries.

Wipeout: