Sunday, January 22, 2017

Happy 51st Birthday -- Still Producing After All These Years: North Dakota C A 3 -- January 22, 2017

This well celebrated its 51st birthday on January 18, 2017:
  • 3983, 234, Enduro Operating, North Dakota C A 3, a Devonian well, vertical, 320-acre spacing, t1/66, cum 1.38 million bbls; 11/16; celebrated its 51st anniversary January, 2017
Production profile this past year:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
DEVONIAN11-20163087289010282741990
DEVONIAN10-2016318529041149170920
DEVONIAN9-20163080582011142802050
DEVONIAN8-20163189280112123472690
DEVONIAN7-20163185569311702491710
DEVONIAN6-20163084093012712471720
DEVONIAN5-2016319128601101148700
DEVONIAN4-201629104210909612161430
DEVONIAN3-2016259818488382331700
DEVONIAN2-20162963370610532331600
DEVONIAN1-201631885103812602491710

Featured Post At The Sidebar At The Right -- The Enerplus "Butterfly" And "Turtle" Wells -- January 22, 2017

The Enerplus "butterfly" and "turtle" wells have been updated. The post is the featured post at the sidebar at the right.

Note: the "Softshell" well (#27587) has produced almost 600,000 bbls of oil since it was completed in late 2014. Natural gas total to date: 1,220,953 MCF (200,000 boe). I've added this well to my list of "monster wells."

Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH11-201630997910040187443908385153684
SANISH10-201630119131191320565241850113336
SANISH9-2016301185311980196752271515450
SANISH8-2016311367313206230355894551440
SANISH7-2016311401214545231961012602300
SANISH6-2016301531715224246967168647660
SANISH5-2016311823118391266765399626600
SANISH4-2016301968419711239972642698350
SANISH3-2016312383523429275474189709020
SANISH2-2016282262422639206351701488150
SANISH1-2016292796627813258452456489770
SANISH12-2015313467335029335054331503020
SANISH11-2015294093240697373557306504062190
SANISH10-2015181049910173221728860265460
SANISH9-20151110101
SANISH8-20157834882551132116879828883
SANISH7-20151140473113693510
SANISH6-2015212669326920228040716376410
SANISH5-2015304036840663357863584589310
SANISH4-2015293856538050357659025545710
SANISH3-2015314007740245352158946542940
SANISH2-2015263257132469311444834410650
SANISH1-20152643490436184485587123528617978
SANISH12-20142435468360364302478812200222092
SANISH11-20142438036367892036045643045643

Camelot 2.0

May 14, 2018, T+6 (six days after President Trump rips up easing of Iran sanctions):


April 25, 2018, T+56: Tim Cook and Lisa Jackson, two of the 150 invited to President Trump and Melania's first state dinner. 

April 24, 2018, T+55: state dinner!

August 29, 2017, T+221: out the door, on her way to Texas to "view" the flooding.



August 28, 2017, T+220: Melania will accompany President Trump to survey Hurricane Harvey's damage to Texas tomorrow. I will be watching to see if Newsweek reports on whether Melania wears heels or flats.

July 15, 2015, T+176: Melania speaks six languages; English is not her first language. Michelle speaks two language, Ebonics and English; English is not her first language.

July 14, 2017, T+175: Melania more popular than Hillary when the latter was First Lady. Color me surprised. LOL. 

July 13, 2017: from the Drudge Report --



July 8, 2017: the G-20 summit. Dinner with President Putin and President Trump -- how the Trump women saved the day.


July 1, 2017: from The Washington Post, when Dad's the president, a look inside Ivanka Trump's complicated world. From the article: Donald Trump has relied on his daughter’s advice since she began working for him as a vice president at the Trump Organization, the tempered Athena to his furious Zeus. She was 24.

June 17, 2017:



May 30, 2017: from PageSix --
[Wardrobe] deliveries to Trump Tower have picked up.
“Most days, the lobby is brimming with wardrobe boxes delivered for Melania,” a source told me. “Once she tries on the outfits and decides what she will keep, the boxes come back downstairs.”
Not since Jacqueline Kennedy has there been a first lady who needs less help.
“She doesn’t need couture. She can buy off the rack, and it looks beautiful,” Bloch said. “She knows her size, and she knows what works on her. She luxuriates in minimal.” [Or as Marilyn Monroe said, "I had the radio."
May 28, 2017: the President's first overseas trip -- "a home run."


May 24, 2017: Melania to be first Catholic to live in White House since the Kennedys --



May 24, 2017: crowds turn out in Rome to see Ivanka --



May 21, 2017: to Saudis, President Trump has become "Abu Trump." -- Los Angeles Times.
The top trending Twitter hashtag in Saudi Arabia on Saturday wasn’t visiting President Trump or even First Lady Melania Trump. Instead, Saudis were abuzz about #binttrump — Arabic for “Trump’s daughter,” Ivanka.


May 2, 2017: Ivanka rising. Favorable story in The New York Times. Even hints of favorable comparisons to Hillary, and then this:
By inserting herself into a scalding set of gender dynamics, she is becoming a proxy for dashed dreams of a female presidency and the debate about President Trump’s record of conduct toward women and his views on them.
April 28, 2017: Melania dedicates new healing garden. What a wonderful woman. British tabloid; not covered by the US mainstream media.

April 28, 2017: from the German Bild:
Even the Chancellor seemed to be more relaxed than usual, as did the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who often makes a tough impression. The great women of world politics welcomed the White House envoy with open arms – and the latter clearly seemed to enjoy herself, laughing, joking, and whispering.
During the joint dinner, Merkel and the “First Daughter” also seemed to get along splendidly.

April 16, 2017: I think this may be the "most interesting" thing about the Trump presidency. It's no longer the Lincoln bedroom in the White House that is so desirable. Mar-a Lago has replaced the Lincoln bedroom. This is just one of many stories -- look at all the folks who go there when you read the article. Think about it:
  • Trump controls Mar-a-Lago, not the US government or the Deep State
  • the guest book belongs to a private organization, not to the US government; everyone talks about the White House visitors log; no one has mentioned the Mar-a-Lago guest book (give them time)
  • the White House is filled with reporters, staff with gossip; Mar-a-Lago: my hunch is Trump controls the press -- who gets in, who doesn't
  • if you visit the White House, it's one-on-one with Trump and his administration, and that's it; when you visit Mar-a-Lago you see Trump in a relaxed state and you get to see all the other folks who "just happen to be there" -- like Rex Tillerson, David Koch, other billionaires
Think about it; no other president has had a Mar-a-Lago venue. My hunch is that over time, Trump is going to spend more and more time at Mar-a-Lago. Gradually, a Florida "White House" will begin to take shape.

April 9, 2017: from the BBC --

 

April 8, 2017: as part of the story following Trump's US naval Tomahawk attack on Syrian airfield. 



April 5, 2017: queens

March 13, 2017: Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinpin at Mar-a-Lago. Camelot rising. This is a huge story on so many levels. Planned meeting over April 6 - 7. If I did the calculations correctly this will be days 66 - 67 of Trump's presidency. Not only in the first 100 days but incredibly early in his administration. President Obama did not meet with Xi (in the US) until well into his second administration; in fact, by September, 2015, Obama was pretty much a lame Peking duck.

February 11, 2017: President Trump hosting the Honorable Mr Abe:


February 2, 2017: it's now being reported Melania may move into the White House at the end of her son's school year. 

February 1, 2017: being reported everywhere that Melania may not move into White House ... ever. Will stay in her home in NYC. Good for her. Accompanying her dad to honor a fallen warrior, Ivanka took the roll of the First Lady. Good for her. 

Inauguration: second largest rating in 36 years; perhaps the biggest once on-line viewing is counted. A lot came to watch. A lot came. Came-a-lot. Camelot.

Greater Than Ever -- January 22, 2017

Foxconn (think Apple) CEO says investment for display plant in US would exceed $7 billion.

Exceed $7 billion? I guess so. The total Foxconn is considering $57 billion in the US.

Like Heinz 57. Or the 57 united states.

Reuters is reporting:
  • Foxconn is the world's largest contract electronics maker
  • Foxconn is considering a display-making plant in the US
  • $7 billion investment
  • Foxconn working with Sharp Corp on this idea; depends on many factors
  • in a meeting, the CEO "pledged a $50 billion of investment in the United States and inadvertently disclosed information showing Foxconn's logo and an unspecified additional $7 billion investment
  • the US has no panel-making industry, but the US is the second-largest market for televisions
  • a display-making plant could create up to 50,000 jobs
  • the lucky state? Pennsylvania -- great reward for that state voting for "the Donald"

Campaign Promises, Non-Energy Stories

Updates

December 8, 2017: Trump announces that the US formally recognizes Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel; drives the NeverTrumpers nuts. The bill mandating this was passed by the US Congress in 1995 but gave presidents the permission to "waive" implementing the law if "it might cause undue harm." Clinton, Bush II, Obama all signed waivers every six months to stop implementation of the law. It seems Congress might have gotten the message and could have changed the law sometime over the past 22 years. Trump made a few phone calls; talked with his military experts; looked at the failure of the peace process for the past 50 years; and, made his decision. A profile in courage.


January 31, 2017: daily, signs executive orders, one by one, fulfilling his campaign pledges. No one has seen this before. Truly remarkable.

Original Post
 
President Trump may not enforce ObamaCare's individual mandate. January 21, 2017.  That would pretty much scuttle ObamaCare. There are three legs to the ObamaCare footstool: a) corporate mandate to provide health care to employees; b) individual mandate for those whose employer does not provide health insurance; and, c) taxes on medical devices. I believe Congress has pretty much of "c" -- taxes on medical devices.

President Trump will announce Monday that the US embassy in Israel will move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. January 21, 2017.

************************ 
How Will Mainstream Media Refer To President Donald John Trump?

Every president's go-by-name is defined by the media, and for generations it was based on the amount of space the go-by-name took up in the headlines. For example, both Lyndon Baines Johnson and John Fitzgerald Kennedy were too long for headline purposes, so both were shortened, respectively to LBJ and JFK. Nixon was simply "Nixon." No mainstream media ever used Barack's full name (Barack Hussein Obama) and he simply became "Obama" or "Barack," but generally "Obama." Bush was Bush (sometimes Bush I or Bush II). We all know who "Ike" was. Bill Clinton was frequently, and I think, most often "President Clinton"; never "Bill" unless in this context: "Bill Clinton."

It appears the mainstream media is still looking to settle on the go-by-name for President Donald John Trump. Like Nixon, his last name is so short, there will be no need to go by his initials, DJT. Nor will we likely ever see "John" used. I think it comes down to "President Trump" or "Donald Trump." With all the Trumps in the West Wing, and with so many folks having trouble putting "president" and "Trump" in the same sentence my hunch is we will go with the standard being set by The [London] Independent: "Donald Trump." Not "president" but simply how most of us know him from reality TV: "Donald Trump." The least likely is "The Donald" but one never knows.

Bakken 2.0: Bullish On Ethane (Plastics); Bullish On Transportation -- January 22, 2017

Via twitter, two graphics:



Whiting To Report Some Nice P Bibler Wells Monday -- January 22, 2017

The P Bibler wells are tracked here

Monday, January 23, 2017
  • 31688, 1,418, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H3, Epping Three Forks first bench permit, 33 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t8/16; cum 85K 11/16; spud, May 12, 2016; TD, May 23, 2016;
  • 31752, dry, Armstrong Operating, Johnson 1-23, wildcat, NESW 23-161-86;
  • 32733, SI/NC, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-3H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Sunday, January 22, 2017
  • 32677, SI/NC, WPX, Caribou 33-34HDL, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 32734, SI/NC, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-3H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Saturday, January 21, 2017
  • 31685, 1,714, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H3, Stockyard Creek, Three Forks first bench permit, t8/16; cum 81K 11/16; spud, April 17, 2017; TD, 27, 2017;
  • 32527, SI/NC, Enerplus, Robin 148-92-23B-24H, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 32695, 295, SM Energy, Owan 14B-22HN, Burg, t10/16; cum 10K 11/16;
  • 32735, SI/NC, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-13H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
**************************************

32695, see above, SM Energy, Owan 14B-22HN, Burg:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201693838882
10-20164461032

31685, see above, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H3, Stockyard Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20161848633502
10-20161857322961
9-20162101927296
8-20161727322706
7-201652403684

31688, see above, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H3, Epping:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20162010535672
10-20162671737611
9-20161935827811
8-20161388618545
7-201643773651

Women's March -- January 22, 2017

Updates

January 26, 2017:

Scott Adams and I are on same page. This note from Scott Adams:
I’m also having a hard time figuring out what the pink-hat people are protesting about that they don’t already have. I understand that abortion is in the mix. But the hats seem to have some sort of generic anti-Trump message that to my mind is conflated with an anti-alpha-male vibe. It’s a confusing message and not completely positive. 
Compare with mine below. 
Original Post
 
Some observations, comments, questions regarding the women's march in Washington, DC, the day after President Obama left office.

Observations:
  • this was the culmination celebrating eight years of the Obama legacy: remember, President Trump had been in office less than 24 hours when they marched
  • the marchers reflected on the Obama legacy
    • the US is more divisive than ever
    • the African-American community and other minorities were left further behind than when he took office
    • women's issues were never addressed by the Obama administration, despite eight years in office, and resounding majorities in two elections with a strong mandate from his female base
Comments:
  • the "program" in Washington, DC, was incredibly lame
  • the speeches were banal, vulgar
  • entertainment? some lame musical groups playing noise?
  • where was the likes of Janis Joplin in the sixties? This is what we should have heard if the organizers were so angry, with 6 million-plus views and 35,000 likes (vs 600 dislikes):
Ball and Chain, Janis Joplin

Comments, continued.

After watching the women's march, I realized I was "in sync" with their demands. I should have been there arm-in-arm, marching with them:
  • Franchise: women deserve the right to vote
  • Equal pay: sergeants in the US Army deserve the same pay regardless of whether they are male or female
  • Medical Care: double-amputees returning from Afghanistan deserve the same level of medical care regardless of sex
  • Free speech: men and women should be equally free to use language in front of pre-teens generally  reserved for movies rated R and X
  • Free speech: no one should be prosecuted for advocating blowing up the White House, whether male or female 
  • Access to abortion: regardless of ethnicity, women deserve same access to abortion; white women are disproportionately under-represented in the US abortion clinics compared to African-Americans
  • #BlackLivesMatter: see "access to abortion." Apparently not all black lives matter
  •  Breaking "glass ceilings": it's time for a woman president simply because she's a female (memo to self: look up definition of tautology)
  • Free market capitalism: same reimbursement for aborted fetal parts, regardless of ethnicity
Confused:
  • I have no idea where the marchers stood on "pussy-groping" but they all wanted folks to wear pussy-stocking-caps-with-pointed ears
  • I have no idea where the marchers stand on civility: I heard calls for civility in the White House; their calls used some of the most uncivil language ever heard on the Mall by women speakers; I don't recall Bella using these words
  • I have no idea where the marchers stand on violence: they call for peace but first they must think about "blowing up the White House" -- their words, not mine
Woody Allen: 95% of life is showing up
  • where were these women during the campaign?
  • why did Hillary not visit Wisconsin, even once during the campaign? (I provided the answer, by the way, on the blog some time ago)
  • where was Meryl Streep? Nancy Pelosi? Michelle Obama? Maxine Waters?

Unfettered, The WIlliston Basin Could Produce 2 Million BOPD With Less Than 50 Rigs -- January 22, 2017

Active rigs:


1/22/201701/22/201601/22/201501/22/201401/22/2013
Active Rigs3847159187188

January, 2010
  • 81 rigs
  • 235,925 bopd
January, 2011
  • 163 rigs
  • 342,088 bopd
January, 2012
  • 200 rigs
  • 546,047 bopd 
January 22, 2013
  • 188 rigs
  • 738,022 bopd
January 22, 2014
  • 187 rigs
  • 933,128 bopd
January 22, 2015
  • 159 rigs
  • 1,190,490 bopd
January 22, 2016
  • 47 rigs
  • 1,122,100 bopd
January 22, 2017 
  • 38 rigs
  • 1,100,000 bopd (estimate)
Comments: early on in the Bakken, I remember all that talk about the Red Queen effect and the decline rate of the Bakken. Maybe, maybe not. But with 47 rigs, North Dakota is producing the same amount of crude oil on a daily basis that it did with 200 rigs. In addition, take into consideration that crude oil production is front-loaded on Bakken wells; there are approximately 900 DUCs (wells that have been drilled to depth, not fracked, and could be brought on line in one to two weeks); and, another 1,200 inactive wells (completed wells that have been shut-in due to low commodity prices and other reasons). Unfettered, the Williston Basin could produce 2 million bopd with less than 50 rigs.

There are rumors that we could see 100 active rigs in North Dakota by summer, 2017, but that begs the question: why?

Saudi Arabia is crowing that OPEC and Russia have taken about 1.5 million bbls of oil off the global market per day. The Bakken alone could replace that if necessary. And then we have three more plays: the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Trump.