Friday, January 13, 2017

Global Warming Debacle Across All Of Europe -- January 13, 2017

So, how did that focus on renewable energy work out for Europe?

This is truly amazing: we won't see this reported on network nightly news in the United States, but look at the story that is being reported with regard to bone-chilling cold across all of Europe:
  • coal, gas and power supply is running short across Europe
  • French gas surging to a record as LNG cargoes urgently sought
This is not in some British tabloid. This is in Hillary's global-warming mouthpiece, Bloomberg.

I find this incredible. The story reads like a tabloid, written by a deplorable, warmist-denying blogger (someone like me); and, yet, it's in Bloomberg.

One really gets the feeling that the majority of folks living in the western world think that there is unlimited storage of natural gas and coal.

Some decades ago, probably in the late 1980's the military spent vast sums of money training/teaching its officers the principles of W. Edwards Deming's Quality, Productivity, and Competitive Position (although the military called it something else and adapted it to the military mission) and then in the late 1990s/early 2000s the military did it again with Lean Six Sigma, again calling it something else and adapting it to the military mission.

Both of those "fads" drove "just-in-time" delivery, manufacturing, inventory. That philosophy drove the large Wal-Mart warehouses one sees across the country: 18-wheelers unloading on one side; 18-wheelers re-loading on the opposite site. Inventory is in and out as quickly as possible; things are kept moving.

Everything in the US -- from pharmaceuticals to ketchup -- has about a 2-week inventory. Any disruption in the supply chain of almost anything, and one can expect to see shortages start to develop.

It's the same with fuel and energy. Folks advocating non-dispatchable renewable energy rely on backup of fossil fuel. I think a lot of westerners think that there is an inexhaustible inventory / storage of fossil fuel. I haven't look in a long time, but gasoline in the United States, has an inventory of about 24 days, fairly long compared to other perishables.

Same in Europe. I assume most Europeans never gave it a thought. They just assumed there were vast storage areas of coal and natural gas.

So, here we go again. Didn't we have these same stories just a few years ago, about Europe freezing? I know it was not that long ago that the British experienced a deadly cold spell and came within 72 hours of running out of coal. In fact, come to think of it, I remember blogging about it, so it wasn't that long ago. [Yes, it was May, 2013, "Britain was just six hours away from running out of gas." Also, Europe may be the only continent in the universe to have to rely on imported energy -- May 18, 2013.]

Now at Bloomberg:
From the rivers criss-crossing eastern Europe to the Mediterranean ports of Greece and France, everyone is hunting for energy supplies.
Blizzards, gale force winds, arctic temperatures and river ice thicker than a house has left the stewards of the European energy business frenzied. Prices of natural gas, primarily a heating fuel, has soared to the highest in more than two years. Blackouts across Eastern Europe caused electricity rates to spike to record levels.
It’s chaotic, but yet familiar. While energy grid operators, producers and traders prepare for winter’s chill every year, they tend to rely on meteorological forecasts that sometimes turn out to be dead wrong. So when a winter that’s expected to be mild develops into an extended deep freeze, a mad dash to meet demand ensues.
“Those who became sure that such a cold spell was unlikely given the overall trend in global warming are like those who get drowned in a stream that averages three inches deep,” said Zach Allen, president of Pan Eurasian Enterprises, an industry consultant in Rhode Island. “The Black Swan is your constant companion.”
January will be one of Europe’s coldest months of the past five years and the chill will linger for at least another two weeks, according to Giacomo Masato, a meteorologist at energy broker Marex Spectron Group Ltd. in London.
That's the other thing: people have been told 24/7 for the past 20 year that the big fear is global warming -- forgetting that we are talking about 2 degrees  warmer over the next 100 years.

More from Bloomberg:
When Andreas Speer, a commodities analyst at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich, last month looked at the long-range weather forecasts for January, he saw mild weather.
“That’s not what I see when I look out the window,” he said on Friday, referring to winds of 110 kilometers an hour (68 miles per hour) and freezing temperatures. “Models are a waste of time and money beyond three weeks. The cold snap caught people by surprise.”
I assume when he saw forecasts for mild weather, he voiced "support" for global warming, and planned accordingly.

Truly amazing:
The scramble for supplies intensified by the end of last year as temperatures plunged. In Turkey, the state-owned gas grid operator asked private power plants to reduce gas demand by 90 percent as Istanbul got covered in snow. France issued its strongest warning that the southeast part of the country had an urgent need for extra gas. Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia last week deployed emergency services to evacuate remote villages where people were stranded without electricity or heat.
As the world’s power brokers gather in Davos, Switzerland, this week, they’ll need to wrap up warm as a low pressure system is forecast to send temperatures to below minus 20 Celsius (minus 4 Fahrenheit). The country may get its lowest seasonal average in a decade, with a mean of minus 8 Celsius across the country.
One wonders if the Kennedy grandchildren are enjoying the snow?

I doubt if the Kennedys have read this far, but if any of them have, they can also go ice-skating on the Black Sea -- that's over in Europe. The Black Sea has freezes for the first time in 62 years.
The last time the sea in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas was covered with ice was in 1954.
Throughout the 20th century ice paralyzed this part of the Black Sea area only three (3) times. The Balkan country is experiencing extreme cold. In some areas, the air temperature dropped to -20 degrees Fahrhenheit, or -29 degrees Celsius.
And then this:
Harsh winter is associated with global warming. Global warming is felt not only in exhausint heat waves, but even in the strongest cold. 
I can't make this stuff up.

Perhaps lost in translation.

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Worried About Global Warming?
The Brits Have It Figured Out

REX, Zone 3 (Ohio To Missouri) Has Been Completed; At/Near Full Capacity -- January 13, 2017

Back on , I posted:
  • RBN Energy: again, RBN Energy does a superb job on their energy updates. This time is an update on the REX, Zone 3 east-to-west expansion.
Today, EIA posts its update of Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) Zone 3: REX Zone 3 capacity expansion enters full service, increasing Northeast takeaway capacity.
On January 5, Tallgrass Energy and Rockies Express Pipeline LLC (REX) announced the completion of the Zone Three Capacity Enhancement Project, providing an additional 800 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of east-to-west capacity out of Ohio and into Midwestern markets.

The recently completed capacity expansion project has increased REX's Zone 3 east-to-west capacity to 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by adding three additional compressor stations and upgrading two others. The project received approval from FERC in March of 2015; it is estimated to have cost $532 million. Capacity on the east-to-west expansion is currently fully subscribed under long-term contracts. In its first full week of service, east-to-west flows have been close to full capacity, averaging 2.6 Bcf/d at the Chandlersville compressor station in central Ohio (PointLogic Energy).

Zone 3 has 20 different pipeline interconnects and delivery points, ....

In addition to providing access to Midwestern markets, both pipelines will also connect Appalachian natural gas to the Gulf Coast, which is evolving into a demand center as liquefied natural gas export and petrochemical facilities come online.
Originally a west-to-east pipeline completed in late 2009, only four years later (2013) a project to reverse the flow was initiated:
Completed in November 2009, the 1.8 Bcf/d REX pipeline extended 1,713 miles and was built to move natural gas from Colorado and Wyoming to eastern Ohio. The emergence of shale gas production in the Marcellus and Utica basins, however, transformed the Northeast into a major supply region for natural gas. As a result, Tallgrass initiated a project to provide east-to-west reversal on REX's Zone 3 in August 2013, which came into service in August 2015. The project provided full bidirectional flow of 1.8 Bcf/d between Clarington, Ohio, and Mexico, Missouri.
RNB Energy has had many, many posts and updates on the REX pipeline.

XTO's FBIR Blackmedicine Wells -- January 13, 2017

Eleven wells on this pad. The first well, drilled, fracked some time ago:
  • 20600, 1,831, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21B, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 3.1 million lbs, t6/12; cum 251K 12/15;
The other ten are currently SI/NC. The first well (above) was taken off-line December, 2015, and remains off line (for over a year), in anticipation of completing these DUCs?
  • 32707, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21EXH, Three Forks,  API 33-025-03148, n/d FracFocus;
  • 32302, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21AXD, middle Bakken, API 33-025-03076, n/d FracFocus;
  • 32283, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21E, Three Forks, API 33-025-03072, n/d FracFocus
  • 32290, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21A, middle Bakken,
  • 32291, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21F, Three Forks,
  • 32472, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21D, middle Bakken,
  • 32282, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21CXD, middle Bakken,
  • 32281, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21H, Three Forks,
  • 32280, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21C, middle Bakken,
  • 32279, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21G Three Forks, 
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Katie Ledecky Nominated For World Sports Award -- January 13, 2017

Phelps, Ledecky nominated for 2017 Laureus World Sports awards, SwimSwam.
Decorated swimming stars Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky have been named as nominees for the 2017 Laureus World Sports Awards. Ledecky’s nomination is for Laureus World Sportswoman of the Year, while Phelps has been nominated for Laureus World Comeback of the Year. 
This summer, Ledecky walked away from the Rio Olympics with 4 gold medals and 1 silver medal. She won all 3 of her individual races, shattering World Records and dominating the field in the 400 free and 800 free. She’s been nominated for Sportswoman of the Year alongside Simone Biles (gymnastics), Allyson Felix (track & field), Angelique Kerber (tennis), Elaine Thompson (track & field), and Laura Kenny (cycling).
This year's award ceremony will be held February 14, 2017, in Monaco. Wow. 

EOG With Permits For Six New Clarks Creek Wells -- January 13, 2017

Active rigs:


1/13/201701/13/201601/13/201501/13/201401/13/2013
Active Rigs3651156193182

Two permits renewed:
  • Petro Harvester: a Miller permit, Burke County
  • Whiting: a Ray permit, Mountrail County
Two permits canceled:
  • Slawson (2): two Pike Federal permits in Mountrail canceled
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 07934, PA/5, Petro-Hunt, Anna Osadchuk B-1, Billings County, originally drilled in 1981; target was the Duperow; 543K 7/16; re-entered 7/16; target was the Madison, now PNA;
Eight (8) new permits:
  • 33274, loc, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5A-26-25-164N-100W, West Ambrose, 
  • 33275, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 38-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94, see below
  • 33276, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 39-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
  • 33277, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 40-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
  • 33278, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 41-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
  • 33279, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 42-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
  • 33280, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 43-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
  • 33281, loc, MRO, Iron Woman USA 14-9H, Antelope,
*************************************
Permits For Six New EOG Clarks Creek Wells

EOG Clarks Creek wells are tracked here.

Screenshots:



COP Makes Oil DIscovery North Slope Alaska -- January 13, 2017

COP announces:
  • Greater Mooses Tooth Unit, northeast region of National Petroleum Reserve Alaska
  • Willow discovery wells: Tinmiaq 2 and 6
  • drilled early 2016
  • Tinmiaq: 72 feet of net play
  • Tinmiaq: 42 feet of net play; 300M bbls or more EUR
  • Willow: as much as 100,000 bopd
  • initial commercial production as early as 2023
  • COP: 78%
  • Anadarko: 22% 
Peak oil? What peak oil?


Global Warming Buries California -- Too Much Snow For Skiing -- January 13, 2017

From SnowBrains some great photos! California Storm Totals -- Up To 148″ Fell In Just A Few Days.

148 inches = 12 feet of snow in just a few day. 

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Notes For The Granddaughters

I'm reading Atom: An Odyssey From the Big Bang to Life on Earth -- and Beyond, Lawrence M. Kraus, c. 2001, for the second time. It doesn't matter how many times I read these books, I always learn / see something new.

An important component of grand unifying theories (GUT) is proof that proton decay exists. It's not absolutely required for all GUTs but it's fairly important in modern physics.

A neutrino detector in Japan detected neutrinos in 1987. In 1995, the neutrino detector was converted/expanded into a super-detector, specifically built to detect proton decay.

According to wiki, as of 2015, proton decay has not yet been detected. Twenty years of watching, and waiting. One wonders.

Needs To Be Repeated -- January 13, 2017

This is why I love to blog. Earlier today I noted a story that I thought was quite amazing: Saudi Arabia saying that a) it had cut production to less than 10 million bopd in January; and, b) that it planned to cut deeper. I thought that was pretty remarkable, deserving of a headline story over at CNBC (maybe next week). But Zacks caught it
Saudi surprised the world by cutting oil output to less than 10 million barrels a day, which is below its pre-set level, and indicating a renewal of its plans to slash crude output in six months. With this, the world’s biggest oil exporter is currently pumping at a 22-month low.
The takeaways:
  • below 10 million bopd
  • below its pre-set levels
  • indicates it will cut further
  • pumping at a 22-month low 
*************************************
The Great Pretender

#13 in the 20-song countdown.

The Great Pretender, The Platters

Down But Not Out; Still Above One Million BOPD; Natural Gas Production Hits All-Time High; Gas Gathering Expansion South Of Lake Sakakawea This Quarter -- Director's Cut Is Out -- November, 2016, Data

Disclaimer: as always, this is done quickly, and will have typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Director's Cut is out: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2017-01-13.pdf.

Oil production:
  • November, 2016: 1,033,693 bopd
  • October, 2016: 1,043,693 bopd
  • The November figure will be revised as more data comes in but right now, that's exactly a delta of 10,000 bbls month-over-month.
  • Delta, November-over-October: - 0.96%. Less than 1 percent decrease in November over October, crude oil production.  
Natural gas production:
  • November, 2016: 1,764,494 MCF/day
  • October, 2016: 1,717,763 MCF/day
  • Delta, November-over-October: + 2.72% 
  • NOTE: natural gas production in North Dakota hit an all-time record in November, 2016. 
BOE for November, 2016:
  • 1,764,494 MCF/day =  304,296 boe/day 
  • 1.034 bo/day + 0.304296/day = 1.34 million boe/day
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Permitting:
  • 76 in November is down from 82 in October.
Rig count:
  • December's count at 40, is above the 37 in November, and the 33 in October.
DUCs and inactive wells:
  • estimated to be 839, down 21 from end of October to end of November
  • estimated number of inactive wells is up 16, up to 1,519 inactive wells, estimated
Takeaway capacity:
  • dependent on CBR to coastal refineries
Natural gas
  • US storage is now 0.1% below five-year average
  • statewide capture: 89%
  • FBIR Bakken capture: 88%
  • "mandate": 85% by October 31, 2018
  • "mandate": 91% by November 1, 2010
  • NOTE: The percentage of gas flared decreased to 11% with Alliance Pipeline back in service. The Tioga gas plant is still way below capacity; it is operating at 83% capacity. The expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea has now been approved with start-up anticipated in 1Q17. (That's this quarter, folks!) 

Idle Chatter On BR's CCU "Railroad" Wells -- January 13, 2017

Record high for the NASDAQ, according to a CNBC crawler. About 60 points from 20,000 over on the Dow. Won't happen today.

********************************
Add Denmark To The List

Over at "the big stories," under US Energy Revolution, I update US LNG export stories. Add another customer to the list: Denmark.

This is really quite a story. Denmark already has an incredibly bad energy story going forward (highest utility rates in Europe due to all their wind energy) and now add one more problem: Denmark's largest gas field will close by the end of ... next year. Not 20 years from now. Not 10 years from now. Not even five years from now. Less than two years from now Denmark's largest gas field to close.  

UPI is reporting that the operator, Maersk Oil says it has not found an economic solution to continue production from the Tyra field. Wow.

This is not simply the largest gas field supplying Denmark, it's about the only gas field supplying Denmark (it supplies 90% of the nation's gas production).
Maersk Oil operates the Tyra natural gas field on behalf of a broader consortium that includes partnerships with energy majors like Royal Dutch Shell. Maersk said that, even after spending more than $140 million on reinforcing structures associated with production over the past 15 years, safety is becoming a clear factor.
The company said in a statement decommissioning of Tyra will proceed with the aim of ending production by October 2018. Starting next month, any resources now targeting reconstruction will go toward shutting the field down.
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Rugby, Out; Center, In
Geographical Center of North America

I first heard about this "controversy" some weeks ago; didn't post it. A couple days ago a reader sent me a long note on his thoughts on this issue. Now The Bismarck Tribune covers it:
CENTER -- In the debate for the title Geographical Center of North America, a new contender has risen, and the namesake may be more literal than originally intended.
Center, an Oliver County town of roughly 600 located 40 miles northwest of Bismarck, is the center of North America, at least according to the calculations of Peter Rogerson, a professor of geography and biostatistics for the University of Buffalo in New York.
“It was a great sort of serendipitous surprise when (the geographical center of North America) came out when it was plotted out on the map,” he said. “I said, ‘Oh my gosh, it is called Center.’ ”
The professor has done work determining important points, including centers of population in the U.S. He said he is more interested in determining geographical points, including the geographical center of North America.
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Notes To The Granddaughters

I was probably seven or eight years old when I got my first "train set." We were living in Williston, North Dakota. My parents must have had "no" money at that time, and four children. How my mother was able to find gifts for all her children in those days still amazes me. We never had a "bad" Christmas; it was amazing how many presents she could find for all four children (later, the family grew to six children).

My first "train set" was a Lionel train set. I still have the set; it's in storage somewhere: a locomotive, a coal car, a caboose, and two boxcars.

I was curious where BR came up with the "railroad" names for some of their CCU wells in Corral Creek.

"Mainstreeter"? It's a railroad magazine. Other CCU railroad-related names: Boxcar, Burner, Alantic Express, Pacific Express, Zephyr, Pullman, Olympian (Hiawatha).

Lionel Northern Pacific Round Roof Box Car

The videographer re-did this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuiYGSYJTos&t=72s.

I never added to that Lionel train set, and never did anything will trains after my childhood years until some decades later when we moved to Germany where/when I became an avid collector of Marklin. Huge, huge collection of Marklin. In storage. Will be handed down to great-grandsons some day. 

Activity On An EOG Clarks Creek Pad? -- January 13, 2017

Updates

August 19, 2017: this well is back on line.


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20172525332488713237647962767
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-201610720650
BAKKEN9-20168619746531398132414
BAKKEN8-20163125542666257274790
BAKKEN7-201631233822274993132287610
BAKKEN6-2016302162219645439663579147

Original Post

For some reason, this well was recently taken off-line:
  • 20891, 603, EOG, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool; 4-section spacing; t8/11; cum 265K 8/16;
The EOG Clarks Creek wells are tracked here.

In progress.


Screenshots from a file report of the EOG Clarks Creek pad above. To make it easier to see, I had to break up the graphic into three screenshots. It's difficult to sort it all out, but I think one can count 15 horizontals running south, and 17 horizontals running north. This does not include any third or fourth bench Three Forks wells.



Several years ago, shortly after starting the blog, I said that if you "had" one well, you would definitely "two." You might have four, and you could possibly have many, many more.

Almost anyone with two or more wells needs professional assistance. 

WPX Acquires More Acreage In The Permian -- January 13, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. It is also not a travel site nor a North Dakota tourist site. It most definitely is not a dance site.

WPX Energy buys into the Permian (original post incorrect; I made huge error; a reader corrected me, see first comment; much appreciated). From Yahoo!Finance/MarketWatch:
  • 18,100 net acres acquired; brings WPX up to 120,000+ acres in the Permian
  • 23 producing wells in the acquisition
  • $775 million
  • will pay with proceeds from equity issuance and cash on hand
Back-of-the-envelope: $775 million / 18,100 net acres -- $43,000 / acre.

Sanchez, Blackstone team to buy Eagle Ford acreage from Anadarko for $2.3 billion, from Oil & Gas Journal:
Sanchez Energy Corp., Houston, and funds managed by private equity firm Blackstone Energy Partners LP have entered a 50-50 partnership and agreed to acquire working interest in 318,000 gross operated acres in the western Eagle Ford shale of South Texas from Anadarko Petroleum Corp., The Woodlands, Tex., for $2.3 billion. Encompassing the Comanche area, the 155,000 acres net to Sanchez Energy and Blackstone is contiguous to Sanchez Energy’s Catarina area, where the firm has 106,000 net acres in Dimmit, LaSalle, and Webb counties with 100% working interest. Eagle Ford shale development covers 80% of the acreage to be acquired, with resource potential from the Austin Chalk and Pearsall shale. 
  • includes 132 DUCs
  • 70% liquids
  • proved reserves: 300 million boe, 70% liquids 
  • individual rates of return expected to exceed 100%
  • more than 4,000 Eagle Ford drilling locations
  • more than 20 years of economic drilling inventory at current strip prices
$2.3 billion / 155,000 net acres = $15,000 / acre.

Hess stock rallies after plan to boost exploration budget and production. From Yahoo!Finance/MarketWatch:
  • 2017 budget will rise 18% from year ago
  • 2017: $2.25 billion
  • will fund additional rigs in the Bakken
  • Hess shares have soared 56% over the past 12 months
Could be a nice day for oil investors today (remember -- it's a 3-day weekend):

It's Friday The Thirteenth! Saudi Says It Will Cut Deeper -- January 13, 2017

Updates

Later, 11:35 a.m. Central Time: this is why I love to blog. Earlier today I noted a story that I thought was quite amazing: Saudi Arabia saying that a) it had cut production to less than 10 million bopd in January; and, b) that it planned to cut deeper. I thought that was pretty remarkable, deserving of a headline story over at CNBC (maybe next week). But Zacks caught it
Saudi surprised the world bycutting oil output to less than 10 million barrels a day, which is below its pre-set level, and indicating a renewal of its plans to slash crude output in six months. With this, the world’s biggest oil exporter is currently pumping at a 22-month low.
Later, 9:21 a.m. Central Time: there's a big article, page B10, Friday's print edition of The Wall Street Journal, talking about the difficulty OPEC will have getting the price of oil to rise. The big problem: huge global reserves. Part of the problem is the huge amount of oil placed in storage when price of oil dropped so low, part of Saudi's trillion-dollar mistake. OPEC says this "storage" is their chief "enemy," not US shale producers. Wink, wink.
The problem: no one knows how much oil is actually in storage around the world:
While most industrialized nations publish data about oil storage, an increasing proportion of inventories are stored in Asian countries that don't publicize such data. Russia, the world's largest oil producer, stopped publishing such information in 2009. Singaport, a storage and refining hub, keeps storage numbers secret for refiner, which consider the information proprietary. 
OPEC will need to force prices up quickly to move oil out of storage, pushing the market into backwardation -- a term that means oil is more expensive today than in the future. Storing oil generally works only when traders believe they can sell for higher prices in the future (contango).
Original Post
Saudi Arabia: production now below 10 million bopd; cut will deepen. Pricing/production/the trillion-dollar mistake tracked here. If indeed that's accurate (below 10 million bopd) that's huge. Historically they have not been below 10 million bopd in recent history:
Pricing: Saudi announcement not moving the price of oil, WTI under $53; about $52.50.

Mexico: Rigzone looks at "what's next" for Mexico's energy sector. Average production was 2.3 million bopd in 2015, the lowest level since 1981.
Wood predicts that PEMEX’s production will fall below 2 million barrels per day (MMbpd) over the next 12 to 18 months because of Mexico’s aging oil and gas fields. Optimistically, Mexico’s production will climb above 2 MMbpd in 2020.
Tesla: will add supercharging stations in North Dakota.
We are talking about more extensive coverage on the west and east coast as well as expansions in states currently without any stations, like North Dakota or Arkansas, that were supposed to get some Superchargers in 2016, but which are now on the 2017 map.
Last night, Tesla updated the Supercharger network map on its website to show its expansion plans for next year. With only a few weeks left in 2016, the company had fallen behind on its 2016 expansion plans for its network of DC fast-charging stations and the current Supercharger maps, which should have looked like the “2016 maps,” were missing several stations.
Utilities paying customers to take their electricity? From ISO Express (New England) early this morning?

India: low-cost airline to buy up to 205 new Boeing planes.

California: that didn't last long. Wasn't it just last year we were told California budget looked great? Maybe it was two years ago. Whatever. Governor Brown notes that the deficit is back: $1.6 billion. This morning -- on some cable news network, which I now forget -- said that public schools could expect not getting the $1.2 billion they otherwise might have gotten -- whatever that means. From The Los Angeles Times:
Brown's budget does not take into account a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, which would be unlikely to happen during the fiscal year at hand. But the governor made clear such a rollback could have a significant impact on California, where federal subsidies to Medi-Cal now top $16 billion. 
WSJ op-ed: FBI director should resign.

My Lonely, Bobby Vinton

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


1/13/201701/13/201601/13/201501/13/201401/13/2013
Active Rigs3651156193182

RBN Energy: a major shift in marine fuel rules.
Shipping companies now know that within three years all vessels involved in international trade will be required to use fuel with a sulfur content of 0.5% or less—an aggressive standard, considering that in most of the world today, ships are currently allowed to use heavy fuel oil (HFO) bunker fuel with up to 3.5% sulfur.
This is a big deal.
Ships now consume about half of the world’s residual-based heavy fuel oil, but starting in January 2020 they can’t—at least in HFO’s current form. How will the global fuels market react to a change that would theoretically eliminate roughly half the demand for residual fuels? How will ship owners comply with the rule? What are their options?
Today we discuss the much-lower cap on sulfur in bunker fuels approved by the International Marine Organization, and what it means for shippers and refineries.
The international shipping industry is a major energy consumer, and for that reason we’ve blogged about it often.
We talked about how the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in recent years has been implementing rules that gradually reduce emissions of sulfur (sulphur for many of our non-American readers). In January 2012, the “global” cap on sulfur content in marine fuel was reduced to 3.5% (from the old 4.5%), and in January 2020 (per an IMO decision in October 2016) it will be reduced to a much stiffer 0.5% sulfur cap. There has been an even tougher standard (a 0.1% sulfur cap) in place in the IMO’s “Sulphur Emission Control Areas” (SECAs, or sometimes ECAs), which include Europe’s Baltic and North seas and (more recently) areas within 200 nautical miles of the U.S. and Canadian coasts.