Sunday, January 8, 2017

Update On Ths Oasis Johnsrud Wells -- January 8, 2017

I track the Oasis Johnsrud wells here. Recently they have been coming off the confidential list, with two more due to report Monday.

There are about twelve "new" Johnsrud wells, fracked in the past year.

This is the production profile of the "original" Johnsrud well. Neighboring wells were fracked around 6/16; note oil production, water production, and natural gas production after 6/16:
  • 22202, 2,104, Oasis Johnsrud 19-18H, 28 stages, 3.3 million lbs, t5/12; cum 220K 11/16; off-line most of 7/15; MCF of 12,000 MCF = 2,000 boe; add that to the 6,089 bbls bo in 8/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016274431411139201060892751063
BAKKEN10-20163055665439603512165104411724
BAKKEN9-201620202924273385247022700
BAKKEN8-20163160896129132171201611235471
BAKKEN7-201629205415309034393036400
NEIGHBORS6-20160000000
FRACKED5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-201619255033023
BAKKEN3-201631284629231270555952490
BAKKEN2-201619839509430127410840
BAKKEN1-2016301610209272541553500355
BAKKEN12-2015312088178271044874056121
BAKKEN11-20153020432383815438618222264
BAKKEN10-20153120742347900407221551607
BAKKEN9-20153021491691748541751170
BAKKEN8-20153122512095717550251920
BAKKEN7-20153121812294105046729363426

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Global Warming? What Global Warming? -- January 8, 2017

North Dakota's oil revenue forecast decreases by $1 billion. From oilprice.com:
  • new revenue forecast: $1.1 billion less than former governor's 
  • keeps oil production levels flat from the last forecast
  • former governor's forecast: $4.81 billion
  • new forecast: $3.68 billion
  • House leadership kills proposal to increase production and extraction taxes (whew! -- North Dakota already considered a high-oil-tax state)
  • lowers oil price mode to $48 from $51 - $53
 ********************************
What Global Warming?

From Weather.com: Snow and Ice Covered the Ground in 49 of 50 States This Weekend.
  • only Florida had no snow or ice on the ground Saturday into early Sunday morning
  • 66% of the lower 48 states was covered by snow or ice as of this morning
  • highest coverage so far this winter season in the US
  • it was the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, TX, that pointed this out in a tweet earlier (yesterday, late Saturday)
Not just the US either; across Europe, from Moscow to Istanbul.
Bone-freezing cold, heavy snowstorms, and floods have been plaguing the European continent this week, causing power outages, traffic jams, cancelled flights, and even a stream of plastic eggs with toys washing up on a German island. 
On Saturday, heavy precipitation paralyzed Istanbul, Turkey. Around 6,000 passengers found themselves stranded as hundreds of flights to and from the city's main Ataturk Airport were cancelled due to the snowstorm.
The Bosphorus Strait was closed to ships due to poor visibility, cutting off the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea from the Mediterranean.
Many drivers abandoned their cars and walked rather than waiting for streets to be cleaned. Istanbul’s metro system operated throughout the night to deal with a sudden passenger spike.
See global temperatures, 2500 BC to 2040 AD.
************************
The NFL Page

Most of the wild care games (all four of them) were less than exciting this weekend, but I think the Seattle Hawks game was better than average, and if you like the Green Bay Packers, they had an outstanding game today, easily beating the New York Giants.

The Green Bay Packers will now play "a" divisional game against the Dallas Cowboys next week. Can hardly wait.

**************************************
The Political Page

How Trump won. The Wall Street Journal. If you hit a paywall, begin with this:
Robert Mercer, a computer programmer and hedge-fund manager who distrusted the political establishment and loathed Bill and Hillary Clinton, issued a warning: Data he had seen indicated mainstream Republicans such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio would have difficulty winning the White House in 2016, according to one of the attendees. He said only a true outsider with a sense of voters’ frustrations could win.

*********************************
The 20-Song Countdown

Wow, we almost forgot, #8 in the 20-song countdown:

It's Closing Time, Leonard Cohen

Fiat Chrysler Announcement: $1 Billion Investment; 2,000 New Jobs -- January 8, 2017

It looks like Mexico is going to keep losing US dollars/investments if it doesn't work with PEOTUS on immigration issues and the "wall." If Obama had his war on coal, it clearly appears that Trump has his war on Mexico.

Not even sworn in as president yet. From FoxNews.com:
  • FiatChrysler will spend $1 billion in US manufacturing
  • will modernize plants in Michigan and Ohio
  • will add 2,000 new jobs
  • the plant in Warren, MI, will be modernized to produce a pickup truck currently built in Mexico
    • the new Jeep Wagoneer 
    • the Grand Wagoneer large SUVs
  • a Toledo, OH, plant will get new equipment to make new Jeep pickup
More specifics here:
  • Fiat Chrysler will add three new Jeeps to its lineup
    • including a pickup
    • also, the new Jeep Wagoneer; and,
    • the new Grand Wagoner
  • all large SUVs 
CNBC, tomorrow, will repeat the meme: these "onesies and twosies" don't mean a thing; Trump needs policy changes to bring on millions of jobs, not hundreds of jobs at any one time.

Okay, so how about this: a huge US Navy ship modernization program? Yup, it's going to be huge, and New England is going to love it. This is being reported everywhere, but the link to NavyTimes seems most appropriate:
  • Donald Trump has pledged the biggest US Navy build-up since the Reagan administration
  • it will cost less than Obama's stimulus program
  • it will cost less than ObamaCare
  • today's US Navy battle force: 272 ships
  • US Navy wants about 305 ships
  • Trump wants to build a 350-ship fleet that Republican defense hawks have long wanted
  • would restore US Navy to a size it hasn't seen since 1998
  • options:
  • $10 billion Ford-class carriers
  • $3 billion Virginia-class attack submarines (which already includes the USS North Dakota); see below
  • $500 million littoral (brown water) combat ships
From the article:
To get there the Navy would need to start building three Virginia-class attack submarines per year and continue to pump out LCS and its follow-on frigates starting in 2019 to do low-end missions. The submarine build-up would need to continue even as the nation begins on the next-generation of ballistic missile submarines, which are estimated to cost at least $5 billion per hull.

The Navy, he said, could also accelerate the production of the aircraft carriers to get the fleet up to 12 by the 2030s. That buildup would get the Navy from an end strength of about 330,000 sailors today to more than 380,000 in Trump’s Navy. 
As I've said before, Donald Trump does not think small. He will let the New England and Mid-Atlantic state senators from Virginia, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine try to talk him out of this.

Human Interest Story: Keenan, Apache, Alpine High Oil Field -- January 8, 2017

Data points from the Alpine High article below:
  • oil: 3 billion bbls in Alpine High vs 5.2 billion bbls in Eagle Ford
  • 75 trillion cubic feet of gas; 3 billion bbls of oil
    • = 15 billion boe
  • EOG leased more than 600,000 acres in Eagle Ford for "hundreds of dollars/acre"; later Eagle Ford acreage valued / sold at $35,000 / acre
  • 350,000 acres in southern Reeves County
  • Apache leased for average $1,300/acre (Permian now goes for $30,000 / acre)
  • "discovery well" in Alpine High: Spanish Trail 55 1H
    • November, 2015
    • off County Road 318, just outside Balmorhea
    • 10,767 feet down, 4,326 feet horizontal (almost identical to a middle Bakken short lateral
  • "embedded" in clay? clay does not fracture well
  • two years to study how to recover oil
  • no infrastructure in the area yet 
Staggering global riches of natural gas (the numbers keep increasing). From an earlier post:
Top five countries:
  • Russia: 6,000 trillion cubic feet
  • Iran: 1,000 trillion cubic feet
  • Qatar: 900 trillion cubic feet
  • Turkmenistan: 600 trillion cubic feet
  • US: 350 trillion cubic feet
  • #11: Australia: 152 trillion cubic feet (as of January, 2014). (See this post.)
Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:
Other recent stories on natural gas reserves
Comments regarding natural gas reserves
  • for me, it's hard enough getting my hands around billions of bbls of oil; it's almost impossible for me to get a feel for trillions of cubic feet of natural gas
  • proved reserves are based on price of recovery, confusing matters from year to year
  • estimates are just that, estimates (and often inflated for "certain" reasons)
  • watch for this gotcha: sometimes reported in trillion cubic feet; sometimes in trillion cubic meters (35 cubic feet = 1 cubic meter; not trivial)
  • for me it comes down to two things:
    • any discovery over 30 trillion cubic feet natural gas is staggering, worth reporting
    • "we" aren't going to run out of natural gas any time soon
Original Post

Very, very interesting human interest story sent to me by a reader. I received it some time ago (December 30, 2016) but delayed in getting it posted, sorry.

This is the story of how a retired geologist discovered one of the biggest oil finds in the continental US this past decade: the Alpine High oil field.
[Steve] Keenan [retired geologist] and [Roberto] Alaniz [chief geologist] became intrigued by a section along a southern strip of Reeves County. The rest of the industry didn't think much of it. More than 100 wells had failed before Apache arrived, drilled by storied explorers like Oklahoma's Chesapeake Energy and Houston's Petrohawk Energy.

Petrohawk once owned half the oil rights in the area, said Floyd Wilson, the company's former CEO and current chief executive of Halcon Resources, another Houston oil company. But it didn't know quite what it had. "We didn't even have a clue those plays were there," Wilson said.

Oil companies largely avoided southern Reeves County. Most believed rock in that part of the Delaware was too deep and too hot to hold oil. In addition, as seas filled the basin millions of years ago, they deposited clay, which doesn't fracture well to let out oil and gas.
More:
Apache hired Keenan in April 2014, and Keenan opened a San Antonio office. Colleagues from EOG, including geologist Sara Reilly, 37, soon joined him. "I wanted to work for Steve again," she said.

Keenan's team started slowly, helping to improve existing wells and prospects, and operating other wells in the western half of West Texas' Permian Basin, called the Delaware. Keenan and chief geologist Roberto Alaniz, 67, a long-time colleague, had never worked in the Permian. But they liked the Delaware, with its deep underground basin that trapped organic material - the building blocks of oil - as seas rose and fell millions of years ago.
More:
In November 2015, the state approved the drilling of Spanish Trail, off County Road 318 on the edge of a lake outside the sleepy town of Balmorhea. Apache broke ground in January, drilling 10,767 feet below the surface, then turning 4,326 feet horizontally, according to state records..

One night a month later, a field report arrived in the inbox of Tim Samson, a 34-year-old geologist. Samson looked, then looked again. Spanish Trail had hit clear, sweet crude in a reservoir 2,000 feet thick more than a mile below the surface. .

Apache found something else there, too - something Keenan won't talk about, for fear of revealing the secret of Alpine High. But, whatever it was, it told him every well in the play would strike oil.
Much, much more at the link.

The big takeaway for me: there's a lot more to all these plays, including the Bakken, that we don't yet know about.

And the coolest thing: I had already placed "Alpine High - Apache" at the sidebar at the right. 

Oasis To Report Two Nice Wells Monday -- January 8, 2017

Active rigs:


1/8/201701/08/201601/08/201501/08/201401/08/2013
Active Rigs3958165193181

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, January 9, 2017
  • 31336, 747, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 13T, Siverston, Three Forks first bench; 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t7/16 cum 89K 11/16;
  • 32618, SWD, Petro Harvester, Sorum SWD 1, Flaxton, looks like an oil & gas permit changed to a SWD well; it's been my experience that SWD wells had permit designations beginning with a "9", for example: 9XXXX.
Sunday, January 8, 2017
  • None
Saturday, January 7, 2017
  • 31337, 1,179, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 12B, Siverston, t7/16; cum 126K 11/16;
  • 29556, drl, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea,
************************************

31337, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 12B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20161604733864
10-20162663444346
9-20162528116490
8-20163027043600
7-20162776937301

31336, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 13T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20161584225820
10-20162181244707
9-20162573626628
8-20161796920784
7-201672654560

Random Look At QEP Wells in Grail Oil Field -- January 8, 2017

This is the second of two or three posts regarding the wells in the graphic below. The first post is here.



Today, I'm going to post the production profiles for two Three Forks wells on the west (left) side of the graphic.

These two wells are both Three Forks first bench wells, running in opposite directions. Although the north-running horizontal ends a bit closer to the site of the south-running well, the horizontals are about 1,000 feet apart. 

First, the more recently drilled/completed well, running south from the 3-well pad. Note the typical "Bakken decline curve and now interruption in production (except shortly after the well was complete). Also note the huge amount of proppant used, almost 10 million lbs. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 2/22 - 25/2015:
  • 28689, API: 33-053-06035, 2,712, QEP, State 3-16-21TFH, 39 stages, 9.4 million lbs, t3/15; cum 307K 11/16:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201628267526488183624361212
BAKKEN10-2016141948201881859975683314
BAKKEN9-20163055925668173818053164101643
BAKKEN8-2016316289628820852197221160812
BAKKEN7-20163174167434245327617262001415
BAKKEN6-20163081768161270531536297851751
BAKKEN5-2016319773972128463597435221753
BAKKEN4-2016279208918928223169230756853
BAKKEN3-2016311328013244317441200388952147
BAKKEN2-2016261079610911252522275207071440
BAKKEN1-2016291905519397414927920265251249
BAKKEN12-2015201294212485179716987155521402
BAKKEN11-2015271469814712433436066313894677
BAKKEN10-20153116704168225651402442865411590
BAKKEN9-2015211406813940330224189168157292
BAKKEN8-2015291970719830696930349290581124
BAKKEN7-20153129961300193818407342852712019
BAKKEN6-20153033274330557295429912964413190
BAKKEN5-2015668617216141686588048557
BAKKEN4-20153035944362581163843589378555459
BAKKEN3-2015312898628192889633430298063419

 *********************

Now, the production profile for the Three Forks well sited in the section to the south (site not shown in the graphic above), with the horizontal running north, parallel to the horizontal noted above, and ending in section 16 where the above well is sited:

In those earlier posts, I did not post data regarding this well running from the south, the singleton:

  • 21564,  2,288, QEP, Levang Federal 14-21/16H, Blue Buttes (sic), 30 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t8/12; cum 587K 11/16;
This is the entire production profile which will become important later. Note the jump in production between September, 2015 (9-2015) and and December, 2015 (12-2015), just three months later. It should be noted that the well was off-line for less than four weeks. This was discussed in the first post in this series.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20163092219189510233786302433127
BAKKEN10-20163085938309386736286271557624
BAKKEN9-20163092549299451133879299152377
BAKKEN8-2016311040910252492333274299621743
BAKKEN7-2016311147411600540234798311212167
BAKKEN6-2016301181611869548137641334402735
BAKKEN5-2016311416714022650338018345282028
BAKKEN4-2016301484315198762240123366092011
BAKKEN3-2016311749117267681441989383941990
BAKKEN2-2016291953219465784139032356512071
BAKKEN1-2016282033120121845337788317254678
BAKKEN12-2015151158811882497917872170210
BAKKEN11-2015367761811022118920
BAKKEN10-201525193117161272400
BAKKEN9-2015261868194153010100
BAKKEN8-2015312420257377911000
BAKKEN7-20153126572654829334303142
BAKKEN6-201529314130695524288393728
BAKKEN5-20153141344226105853584822136
BAKKEN4-201523446545131321605355710
BAKKEN3-20151854995473913642560980
NEIGHBOR2-2015759625912243527950390
FRACKED1-2015116465655707397699310
BAKKEN12-20143119773197091121843170523961
BAKKEN11-20147586356701184787516843
BAKKEN10-20141529529508990899
BAKKEN9-2014201113311128616555122683736
BAKKEN8-2014311477514777615808134141552
BAKKEN7-20142210453102133497638437768
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-20140000000
BAKKEN3-20140000000
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-20141000000
BAKKEN12-2013311340513685137317906174850
BAKKEN11-20133080028195455791575140
BAKKEN10-201324673965366137735010
BAKKEN9-2013301133412149105014777143690
BAKKEN8-2013311336613261126819155187340
BAKKEN7-2013311284612091100514460140390
BAKKEN6-2013301272012960111017268172680
BAKKEN5-2013311528215682148924937249370
BAKKEN4-2013301734516808185930594305940
BAKKEN3-2013312022420215194932560325600
BAKKEN2-2013282002519775193426243262430
BAKKEN1-2013312399624924243028650286500
BAKKEN12-2012312896427996239928980289800
BAKKEN11-2012302618525925220227196271960
BAKKEN10-2012313395934308307431665316650
BAKKEN9-201229419804180910280568114029216519
BAKKEN8-2012122016319676900024426368620740

This series will continue.