Tuesday, December 5, 2017

December NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted -- December 5, 2017

Quick: what is the number one source of California's methane emissions? Answer and link to be posted later. Answer at this post.

Goldman Sachs forecast for oil: backwardation, WTI prices:
  • previously for 2018: $55
  • current forecast for 2018: $57.50 (could rise somewhat if OPEC successful at drawing down more than expected
  • 2019: $55 (as shale producers respond to better prices)
  • 2020: $50
The Bloomberg Gadfly tens to support the Goldman position. From the Gadfly:
  • a record: Money managers' net length in three big crude-oil contracts -- West Texas Intermediate traded on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange and the latter's Brent contract -- stood at 989.9 million barrels as of Friday, a record
  • OPEC's cuts interplay
    • short-cycle production from US shale
    • longer-cycle output from Canada and Brazil
    • global demand
  • result? the 2018 market -- despair on one end; elation on the other
  • the range: $20 - $25/bbl or roughly $45 to $65 in terms of WTI
  • further gains require catalysts
  • OPEC counting heavily on stronger demand or lackluster US production growth
December dockets have been posted. I will get to them later today. The NDIC link is here. Highlights have been posted.

Market: futures look nice.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs533964188191

RBN Energy: strong CAPEX boost by ConocoPhillips headlines early 2018 guidance.

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