Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Oil And Market Page, T+270 -- October 18, 2017

Oil: API weekly report -- says US crude oil stockpiles dropped 7.13 million bbls last week. I track the EIA data which comes out tomorrow. The API data and EIA data often seem worlds apart. I have no idea whom to trust. My natural inclination is to trust the API and not the EIA but it seems the EIA has a wider audience, so I will stick with EIA.

Markets: set to soar today. Dow 30 futures up 90 points right now (7:46 a.m. Central Time). by the way, at some point, the bears will be forced to enter the market. Most of the mutual funds have sold their "dogs" this year as they close out 2017 and start to look forward to 2018.

Iraqi Oil: Iraq, after taking Kirkuk from the Kurds, Iraq plans to double Kirkuk oil output capacity to more than 1 million bopd -- can you say "Saudi Arabia in deep doo doo?"

Goldman's thoughts: then this article via Bloomberg:
The oil market is grappling with intensifying geopolitical risks as uncertainty swirls over the impact of tensions surrounding nations such as Iraq, Iran and the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
While Iraq’s government is clashing with Kurdish forces in the north of the OPEC nation, raising the prospect of output disruptions in the region, both sides have an incentive to keep oil flowing due to low production costs and “high revenue” available per barrel, according to the bank. And though the U.S. has hardened its stance against Iran, there’s still “high uncertainty” over whether it’ll reimpose sanctions curbing the Middle East country’s crude supply.
Oil jumped almost 3 percent over the past two sessions as weeks of tensions following a Kurdish referendum on independence from Iraq on Sept. 25 flared into open conflict in the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Still, the rally fizzled on Tuesday, with prices trading little changed, as two fields pumping a combined 275,000 barrels a day were shut amid the violence.
“The limited market response so far is therefore consistent with the high uncertainty on potential production disruptions, with larger moves only likely to occur should new disruptions actually occur,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a Oct. 17 research note.
Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia, yesterday, was quick to reassure investors that proposed IPO is on track. No links; story everywhere.

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