Tuesday, August 8, 2017

The Market And Energy Page, Part 2, T+199; TCM? No, DCM -- August 8, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. In addition, I often post quickly which may result in factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

Truck manufacturing: huge. Cramer says he's never seen it this strong. That corroborates what my son-in-law in Portland, OR, is seeing. He works at a truck manufacturing plant there. Where the demand is coming from: heavy fleet business (housing, construction, shipping [Amazon], oil and gas, etc).

Fossil Group: shares plunge after hours; shares drop 20%. Reported a loss of $345 million after reporting a profit same quarter a year ago. CNBC said loss much worse than expected; Zacks seems to disagree. Only comment: is this a surprise?

Hertz: earnings much worse than expected, a loss of 63 cents vs 20 cents forecast. Meets revenue forecasts of $2.22 billion.

NOG reports. From a press release --
  • daily production increased 4% sequentially to average 13,794 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, for a total of 1,255,280 boe
  • Northern added 4.3 net wells to production during the second quarter of 2017
  • the 6.2 net wells that Northern elected to participate in during the first half of 2017 have an estimated internal rate of return of approximately 30% at a $50 /bbl flat pricing assumption
  • at June 30, 2017, Northern maintained a strong list of wells in process totaling 16.1 net wells that have an estimated internal rate of return of approximately 30% at a $50 /Bbl flat pricing assumption
  • Northern's GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2017 was $13.8 million. Adjusted net income for the quarter was a loss of $0.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $30.7 million.
Nominee For 2017 Geico Rock Award

Mark Egan: over at CNN Money -- "millions can't feel the stock market boom." Mark obviously doesn't understand macroeconomics, the economy, how the market works, etc. In fact very few Americans are not feeling the stock market boom:
  • economy growing at almost 4% GDP;
  • unemployment rate at 4.3%; full unemployment;
  • number of folks on food stamps dropping;
  • record number of Americans working;
  • many employed have 401(k)s; pension plans -- all dependent on the market; and, 
  • it goes on and on.
COP And Alaska's Fiscal Health

The other day I posted a list ranking the states based on "fiscal health." North Dakota was second from the top. I mentioned that Alaska had fallen to #17 in the most recent polling (2017) after being #1 in 2014.

Today I see COP is considering taking advantage of Alaska's offer to let the E&P company expand its footprint along the North Slope:
ConocoPhillips (COP +1.2%) is evaluating a proposal from Alaska's Department of Natural Resources that would allow it to expand an existing North Slope oil field into an area near big discoveries if it agrees to development steps that include drilling a well by next June and possibly paying the state ~$7M.

The offer to COP to add acreage its to its Colville River unit follows months of discussions between the company and the state over drilling rights on the Tofkat area

The prospect might attract significant interest if Alaska offered it to bidding companies in a lease sale, but doing so also could restart the clock on development, leading to delays in a state that desperately wants more oil production to help close a $2.5B deficit.
Wow, business writers may need to offer their services to Hollywood studios for screenwriting. Earlier we saw the word "terrifying" in relation to natural gas production; and, now, "desperately" with regard to Alaska's budget.


After hours, Disney: missed on revenues, $14.24 billion vs $14.42 billion; beats on earnings, $1.58 vs $1.55;  the bigger news is that Disney will pull its movies from Netflex, and will initiate a new streaming service that will take on Netflix. The new streaming service sounds a lot like TCM. Call it DCM -- Disney Classic Movies.

And then get this: Disney to take a majority interest in Bamtech. This is huge. The Motley Fool predicted this back in April, 2017.

Biggest beneficiary? Our youngest granddaughter, Sophia, who is hooked on all-things Disney. Especially Frozen.

Disney to Netflix, just let it go.

Let It Go, Idina Menzel

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