Friday, August 4, 2017

Trump's Jobs Numbers Crushes The Forecast; The Energy And Market Page, T+196 -- July 4, 2017

Whoo-hoo! SRE beats. And it's a huge beat. EPS, $1.10 and that's a 23-cent beat. Not trivial. Top line beats by $70 million. Press release here. Wanna bet they mention Mexico? It's an open-book test, and RBN Energy is the primary text.
Sempra Mexico recorded a net loss of $9 million in the second quarter 2017, compared with earnings of $57 million in the second quarter 2016, due primarily to a $47 million impairment the company recorded on the Termo√©lectrica de Mexicali power plant, which is being held for sale, as well as unfavorable foreign-currency and inflation effects. 
For the first six months of 2017, Sempra Mexico had earnings of $39 million, compared with $75 million in the same period last year.
US oil production: US production at its highest since July, 2015, and shale producers like EOG Resources are boasting higher production targets in their earnings reports. And producing more for less.

Futures: up again. All indices in the green, pre-market. Dollar continues to fall; now $1.18 per euro. In Britain, $1.31 will buy you a British pound. I remember paying $1.64 for a British pound when we were stationed there years ago. In 2008, it took almost $2 to buy a British one-pound coin. Ouch.

Trump rally: it's all about the ten-year Treasury. Down to 2.23%. KMI offering $1.2 billion in notes in refinancing effort: 5.5% coupon bonds with notes likely to yield around 3.2%. Wow. Would it surprise anyone if Apple did the same thing? LOL. A quarter-trillion dollars in cash.

Greenspan speaks: on CNBC this morning, a profound statement -- low bond yields won't last forever. Okay.


Jobs: July numbers --
  • forecast: 180,000 jobs added; unemployment to tick down to 4.3%
  • actual: 209,000 jobs added; unemployment rate ticks down to 4.3%; participation rate: 62.9%
  • in addition:
    • June, 2017: revised up from 222K to 231K (huge)
    • May, 2017: revised up from 145K to 152K (huge)
  • record number employed: 153,513,000
Imports / Exports:
  • exports up
  • imports down
  • weak dollar
  • trade balance narrowed for first time in a long time

4 comments:

  1. So is the Trump administration doing something to achieve that cheap dollar, or is it just getting lucky?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know nothing about macro-economics. I didn't even follow (or know much) about 10-year Treasuries until the past month or so, following a "rant" by Rick Santelli over at CNBC.

      Delete
  2. Bruce Oksol said: "...shale producers like EOG Resources are...producing more for less."

    Yep. Every quarter they're getting more efficient, putting that barrel of oil in the tank for less $$$.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For the investor, this lowers the downside risk (if oil prices trend lower) and greatly increases the upside potential (if oil prices trend higher).

      Delete