Thursday, August 31, 2017

President Trump To Visit North Dakota On T+229 (September 6, 2017)

Link here. On September 6, in the following years:
  • 1620: the Mayflower departs Plymouth, England
  • 1901: US President William McKinley shot by Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, while visiting the Pan-American Exposition in New York
  • 1966: Margaret Sanger, "founder of 'Planned Parenthood,' dies in Tucson; never played any role in the crusade to make abortion legal, but funded the physician who "invented" the birth control pill, Enovid;
And relevant for Williston, which had a Piggly Wiggly, across the road from Harmon Park:
  • 1916: the first true supermarket, the "Piggly Wiggly" is opened by Clarence Saunders in Memphis, Tennessee

The Energy And Market Page, T+223 -- August 31, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment page. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

This market is just remarkable. The NASDAQ apparently hit an all-time closing high today, although not an intra-day high, according to CNBC. I can't verify that, but record or not, it was another remarkable day.

Likewise, the Dow just missed a gain for the month of August, as far as I could tell, but I could be wrong. During this past month, when there was a pullback in the Dow many pundits, including Jim Cramer, said it was not unusual for the market to pullback in August.

From this USA Today story, July 25, 2017:
In the past 20 years, August is the worse month for the Dow's performance, with an average drop of 1.4%. And September hasn’t fared much better, posting average losses of nearly 1%, which is the third-worst monthly ranking. If you go back 100 years, September is the Dow’s worst month of the year.
Investopedia says September, on the other hand, is the worst month for investing:
One of the historical realities of the stock market is that it typically has performed poorest during the month of September. The "Stock Trader's Almanac" reports that, on average, September is the month when the stock market's three leading indexes usually perform the poorest. Since 1950, the month of September has seen an average decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) of 1.1%, while the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.7% decline during September. Since the Nasdaq was first established in in 1971, its composite index has fallen an average of 1% during September trading. This is, of course, only an average exhibited over many years, and September is certainly not the worst month of stock-market trading every year.
Bloomberg says October is the worst month for the market and, of course, Black Monday, 1987, occurred in October.


And, of course, "everyone" says to "sell in May and go away.

And, yet, with all that, futures, right now, are again green for equities

Ten New Permits; WTI Recovers A Bit; Gasoline Spikes Post Harvey; Panic Buying In The US; NASDAQ Hits New All-Time Record -- August 31, 2017

Active rigs:

$47.098/31/201708/31/201608/31/201508/31/201408/31/2013
Active Rigs553376194185

Ten (10) new permits:
  • Operators: Enerplus (9); Iron Oil Operating LLC
  • Fields: Moccasin Creek (Dunn); Antelope Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Enerplus  has permits for a 9-well "heavy metal" pad in Moccasin Creek in NENE 16-147-93 (see graphic below)
Iron Oil Operating:
  • has 21 oil and gas permits
  • permits in Antelope Creek, Bear Butte, Sather Lake, Ellsworth, others
  • from "Bakken Operators":
Iron Oil: first mentioned on the blog, July 18, 2017

****************************
See Enerplus Permits Above

This page will not be updated. The "heavy metal" pad is now tracked here.


Enerplus' "heavy metal" pad:
  • 33967, 3,162, Enerplus, Cobalt 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek, t7/18; cum 202K 3/19;
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20182533019107
    9-2018284944887
    8-2018508112650
    7-2018226302650
  • 33968, 932, Enerplus, Nickel 147-93-16B-21H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 33 stages; 5.9 million lbs, t8/18; cum 110K 3/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-2018301755417484198171228767964413
    BAKKEN9-2018221999220032207661399492474094
    BAKKEN8-201831282922795838928198055819746
    BAKKEN7-20181236226349316558106
    BAKKEN6-20181600000
  • 33969, 1,077, Enerplus, Steel 147-93-09D-04H-TF, Moccasin Creek, t8/18; cum 138K 3/19;
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20181727613032
    9-2018264424535
    8-201835723108
    7-2018923108
  • 33970, loc, Enerplus, Tungsten 147-93-16A-21H,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2018207598070
    9-20182618912090
    8-2018476934504
    7-2018175344504
  • 33971, loc, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20182995422595
    9-2018289464965
    8-2018503561622
    7-2018138551622
  • 33972, loc, Enerplus, Lead 147-93-16B-21H-TF, 
  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2018181457053
    9-20182666812311
    8-2018346311747
    7-201868021747
  • 33973, loc, Enerplus, Titanium 147-93-16A-21H,
  • 33974, loc, Enerplus, Silver 147-93-09D-04H,
  • 33975, loc, Enerplus, Platinum 147-93-16A-21H,

Yup, The NASDAQ Hit A New All-Time Record -- Make America Great -- Trump, Catching The Wave -- T+223 -- August 31, 2017

NASDAQ hits a new all-time high: 6,429.

I think the Dow squeezed out a "positive" for the month of August but it will be close.

Before Hurricane Harvey: no effect on US GDP.

After Hurricane Harvey: OMG. The sky is falling. Huge impact on GDP. 

Panic Buying Has Begun In North Texas -- August 31, 2017; Record Amount Of Gasoline Produced Last Week; Record Gasoline Demand In US -- August 31, 2017

Updates

September 6, 2017: PennEnergy says gasoline situation in Texas is returning to normal.  Clearly panic buying and hoarding contributed to the problem but there are stations that ran out of gasoline on September 1 and have still not opened as of today -- there was no panic buying at their gas stations; their supplier still unable to re-supply.

September 1, 2017, 00:32 a.m. Central Time: the main road from our apartment complex to the home where the granddaughters live is a busy, busy thoroughfare. Earlier this evening I dropped off the oldest granddaughter after water polo practice and then drove home. It was eerily quiet: no cars on this stretch of road, when normally it would be quite busy. Literally, everyone is rationing their single tank of gasoline in whichever car they were fortunate enough to have when they got their last "fill-up." 

Later, 9:57 p.m. Central Time: it appears that every gas station on this side of DFW (the north side) is out of gasoline. There is one gas station that appears to have done the right thing and is rationing the amount of gasoline it will dispense to any car. It appears to be the only station still selling gas, but I assume it will be out of gas by midnight. And then that's it. I assume the entire DFW area is now out of gasoline. When/if gasoline starts flowing again, everyone will need gasoline and the cycle will start again. 

Later, 3:44 p.m. Central Time: from chron

Later, 3:37 p.m. Central Time: from mainstream media

Later, 3:11 p.m. Central Time: two out of three gas stations now out of gasoline here in north DFW area. 

Later, 1:58 p.m. Central Time: because of panic buying of gasoline and the likelihood that the city of Austin, TX, will have no gasoline available on Monday, Labor Day, the three-day Labor Day soccer tournament scheduled for venues on the north side of Austin has been canceled. What a shame. And the nation (and Texas) has a record amount of gasoline. And most of it will be in gasoline tanks in SUVs parked in garages and on driveways over the weekend. The good news: the soccer coach is working on getting the team scheduled for another soccer tournament in the DFW area.

Later, 1:03 p.m. Central Time: yes, it's already happening. My wife just sent me an e-mail that:
  • a) the local neighborhood gas station has lines too long that she describes as "impossible"
  • b) the gas station near our granddaughters' school has already run out of gasoline (a Shell station)
  • c) the gas station a bit farther away and not particularly close to any highway still has gasoline and lines that are more manageable (and, yes, she filled our tank -- it was close to 3/4 full, but she felt it important to "top it off").
Based on the anecdotal data in that e-mail, we can now confirm (if ABC phones us) that one out of three gas stations in the DFW area are now out of gasoline, Thursday, the day before the Friday before the three-day Labor Day weekend.

We have sent an e-mail to our older daughter to fill up when she gets a chance.

Original Post 

Disclaimer: this was done quickly. I may have missed something. There may be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

And it begins ... 

Starting last night, here in north Texas folks have been advised to keep their gasoline tanks full due to the impending shortage of gasoline in Texas, anticipated shortages extending from the southeast coast up to Dallas-Ft Worth as mainstream media endlessly report that the end is near.

This morning on my bike ride the message is being heard. Long lines are already forming at our neighborhood gasoline stations. If everyone fills their tank today and in tomorrow, I would assume many gas stations will run out of gasoline by mid-weekend, but at least all those folks that aren't traveling over the weekend will have a tank full of gasoline (or more, if they own multiple cars) sitting in their driveways.

President Trump has already responded to Senator Markey's request and has released 500,000 bbls of crude oil from the SPR. That allotment will go to the Lake Charles Phillips 66 refinery. Some data points about that refinery:
  • crude oil capacity: 250,000 bbls (so they will receive a two-day supply)
  • total capacity: 285,000 bbls (I assume total capacity includes non-crude oil hydrocarbon products such as NGLs)
  • gasoline production: 90,000 bbls/day (almost exactly 1% of US total daily demand)
Go Phillips!

By the way, the largest refiner in the US, Motiva, burns through 600,000 bbls of crude oil/day and will be shut down for three weeks. A delivery of 500,000 bbls from the SPR would not meet the daily capacity needs of Motiva. Just saying. 

****************************************

Record amount of gasoline produced in the week prior to Hurricane Harvey. Source:



Record gasoline demand in the week prior to Hurricane Harvey (this data would have included the largest US automobile migration in modern history -- to experience the August 21, 2017, total eclipse.  Source:


********************************
The Only Ones Getting Fat This Weekend: 
Refiners And Retail Gasoline Service Stations

Creeque Alley, The Mamas and The Papas

More On Those New Super-Long / Extended Long Laterals Reaching Under The River -- August 31, 2017

The Wells

 The wells have been brought up here for easier tracking. Data in the original post below will not be updated.
  • 33025, 1,752, CLR, Hereford Federal 10-17H1, Elm Creek, 26,836 feet; (#19503, #18138, #19397, #23493, #23495); conf but noted to be producing as of 4/19; t9/19; cum 26K over the first 25 days;
  • 33026, 2,362, CLR, Hereford Federal 11-17H, Elm Creek, 26,682 feet; conf but noted to be producing as of 4/19; t9/19; cum 36K over first 26 days;
  • 33027, 2,880, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Creek, 26,772 feet; conf but noted to be producing as of 4/19; produced 35K over first 19 days; t9/19; cum 37K over first 19 days;
  • 33028, SI/NC-->conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, Elm Creek, 26,599 feet; produced 28K first full month;
  • 33963, A/n/d --> conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, Elm Creek, ~ 26,715 feet from the permit; fracked, flowing, 4/19; produced 17K first full month;
  • 33964, TA, CLR, Hereford Federal 15-17HSL, Elm Creek, ~ 26,579 feet from the permit;
  • 33965, SI/NC-->conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Creek, ~ 26,729 feet; from the permit; produced 25K first full month, 9/19;
  • 35691, SI/NC-->conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, produced 26K first full month, 9/19; was fracked 2/19; 
Updates

July 11, 2018: add these Hereford Federal wells to the list below (this is an 8-well pad along section line of 20-153-94 --
  • 32357, 1,190, CLR, Hereford Federal 2-20H1, Elm Tree, 61 stages; 22.78 million lbs, t9/17; cum 3317K 9/19;
  • 32354, 174--conf (noted 9/19), CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; now, update, 9/19 -- I note that the well is back on the conf list, but it is producing some oil now;
January 31, 2018: see first comment at this post.
These Hereford wells are certainly interesting... after looking this well up in the well files category in premium however, It looks like this well starts in section 20... It goes horizontally almost a half mile in section 20, the goes up through sections 17, 8, and ends up on the north end of section 5... so 3 full miles plus almost 1/2 mile in section 20, so a very long horizontal.
Still impressive, but makes more sense when you divide the stages, sand, etc. by the longer length. It has to do with access point (section 20) and Lake Sakakewea (just north of section 20) so an unusual setup because of the lake. 
January 30, 2018: 32355, 1,217, CLR, Hereford Federal 6-20H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks 1, 61 stages; 15.5 million lbs, mesh, large, small; t8/17; cum 243K 9/19;

January 26, 2018:
  • 32356, 1,054, CLR, Hereford Federal 4-20H2, Elm Tree, Three Forks (2), 28 stages; 6.9 million lbs, mesh, large, small, t9/17; cum 114K 9/19; off line as of 9/19; 
January 23, 2018:
  • 32349, 1,168, CLR, Hereford Federal 9-20H, Elm Tree, 86 stages; 14.3 million lbs, in excess of 100K in first four months of full production; t8/17; cum 387K 9/19; no production first three months of production; TD = 26,960; off line for much of last year; now coming back on line, 9/19;
January 17, 2018:
  • 32351, 1,136, CLR, Hereford Federal 5-20H, Elm Tree, 71 stages; 14.2 million lbs large, small, no ceramic; t8/17; cum 247K 9/19; TD = 26,780
  • 32352, 1,471, CLR, Hereford Federal 3-20H,  Elm Tree, 71 stages, 14 million lbs, large/small, no ceramic, t8/17; cum 246K 9/19; TD = 36,675

January 11, 2018:
  • 32353, 1,558, CLR, Hereford Federal 1-20H, Elm Tree, 69 stages; 25 million lbs sand small/large, t8/17; cum 274K 9/19; TD = 26,786
 Original Post

The other day, an alert reader noted CLR permits for super-long laterals / extended long laterals.

It turns out CLR has permits for four additional permits in the same general location that will also be super-long laterals / extended long laterals: NWNW 21-153-94, Elm Creek oil field. Those permits were from the September 20, 2016, daily activity report:
  • 33025, 1,752, CLR, Hereford Federal 10-17H1, Elm Creek, 26,836 feet; (#19503, #18138, #19397, #23493, #23495); t9/19; cum 26K 9/19;
  • 33026, 2,362, CLR, Hereford Federal 11-17H, Elm Creek, 26,682 feet; t9/19; cum 36K 9/19;
  • 33027, 2,880, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Creek, 26,772 feet; t9/19; cum 35K in first 19 days;
  • 33028, drl->conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, Elm Creek, 26,599 feet; produced 28K in first full month (9/19);
The three similar permits from the August 30, 2017, daily activity report:
  • 33963, drl-->conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, Elm Creek, ~ 26,715 feet from the permit; produced 17K if first full month (9/19)
  • 33964, TA, CLR, Hereford Federal 15-17HSL, Elm Creek, ~ 26,579 feet from the permit;
  • 33965, drl-->conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Creek, ~ 26,729 feet; from the permit; produced 25K in first full month (9/19)
The CLR Angus and Angus Federal wells are tracked here; they are all "standard" long laterals, about 21,000 feet long (with the exception of this new one, #33865).

The graphic: in the graphic below, the permits for the new wells that will be super-long laterals / extended long laterals are to the west, permit numbers in the two boxes at the far left.

One can see where earlier super-long laterals / extended long laterals were places under the river.

Like the "original" super-long laterals / extended long laterals, the "new" super-long laterals / extended long laterals will just reach to the middle of the river.


The Market And Energy Page, T+223 -- August 31, 2017

Ludicrous: comparing Wal-Mart grocery with Whole Foods.
The fruit, vegetables and canned goods were all cheaper at Wal-Mart, with the exception of bananas, which cost 49 cents per pound at Whole Foods compared with 56 cents per pound at Wal-Mart. The biggest price difference was for boneless, skinless chicken breasts, which cost $1.99 per pound at Wal-Mart and $5.19 per pound at Whole Foods.
Whole Foods sells only natural products that are fully compliant with animal-welfare standards, while Wal-Mart sells a range of groceries that don’t all meet Whole Foods’ lofty standards. Still, it could be tough to persuade cost-conscious shoppers to pay $1.99 for a can of Whole Foods corn that they can get at Wal-Mart for 68 cents.
Two other independent surveys found that prices at Whole Foods had barely budged since the Amazon takeover earlier this week. A Whole Foods in Princeton, New Jersey, reduced prices by an average of 1.2% compared to a week earlier.
A separate review of prices at a New York City Whole Foods by Telsey Advisory Group determined Whole Foods prices remained higher than those at Wal-Mart and Kroger despite Amazon’s cuts. And Amazon has also raised prices: the cost of the salad bar at at least one location in Manhattan jumped from $8.99 a pound to $9.99 a pound this week.
I'm not sure why the writer would "combine" fresh produce (fruits and vegetables) with canned goods in one sentence. But having done so, it surprised me. Whole Foods will never, never, never beat Wal-Mart on canned foods except as loss leaders. Fresh produce? It's a toss-up.

But look at chicken: incredibly more expensive at Whole Foods. And that won't change.
Canned corn? 68 cents at Wal-Mart. Almost $2 at Whole Foods.

By the way, at our neighborhood Aldi grocery store, boneless, skinless chicken breasts are even less costly then Wal-Mart: at $1.69 / lb at Aldi.

******************************
Housing Sales for July, 2017

CNBC:
  • Forecast: up 0.4%.
  • Actual: down 0.8%. 
  • June's sales revised downward
  • fourth monthly drop in five months 
**********************************
A New Kind Of Science
Stephen Wolfram
c. 2002
DDS: 500WOL

Background: the author was born in 1959. Born in London, educated at Eton, Oxford, and Caltch. He received his PhD in theoretical physics in 1979, at the age of 20, having already made lasting contributions to particle physics and cosmology.

He says that he "can trace the beginning of [his] serious interest in the kinds of scientific issues discussed in this book rather accurately to the summer of 1972, when [he] was twelve years old. [He] bought a copy of the physics textbook [pictured] on the right [Statistical Physics], and had become very curious about the process of randomization illustrated on its cover."

The result was this book and a "new kind of science" based on what he called "cellular automata" (to be discussed later).

Almost immediately he "discovered" something completely unsuspected: from simple rules, one could develop a "complex result."

He goes on:
In the early years, I did as I had done before as a scientist, and published accounts of my ongoing work in the scientific literature. But although what I wrote seemed to be very well received, I gradually came to realize that technical papers scattered across the journals of all sorts of fields could never successfully communicate the kind of major new intellectual structure that I seemed to be beginning to build.
So I resolved just to keep working quietly until I had finished, and was ready to present everything in a single coherent way. Fifteen years later this book is the result. And with it my hope is to share what I have done with as wide a range of scientists and non-scientists as possible.
Cellular automata.

Take out a piece of graph paper.

Color in the very top center pixel solid black. Leave everything else white.

Now, write a rule for the next line; that rule will be the rule for the entire "thing" that follows.

Let's say the rule will be: on the next line, every pixel will be the same color as the pixel directly above it.

Obviously one ends up with a straight, black vertical line running down the middle of the page.

It turns out, interestingly enough, it seems to be a coincidence (but I'm sure there's a mathematical explanation), there are 256 rules that one can write resulting in 256 patterns. Some patterns will repeat, interestingly enough (in other words, there may be 256 rules, but there will be less than 256 unique patterns). Some patterns will be simple; some very, very complex and chaotic.

From Wolfram on the web:


The number above each image is the "number of the rule" that generated the pattern. There are 256 rules.

Wolfram argues that it does not take a complex set of rules to "describe" the complex nature of the universe (human life, for example). Or, I guess another way to say it, there may not be a complex set of rules (or the need for a complex set of rules) underlying the complexity that seems to permeate the universe.

The text of the book is 846 pages long.

In addition:
  • a 6-page preface
  • 9 pages of general notes
  • 337 pages of notes by chapter
  • 63 pages of index

Sempra and Boardwalk's Proposed Permian-to-Katy Gas Pipeline -- RBN Energy -- August 31, 2017

Active rigs:

$46.188/31/201708/31/201608/31/201508/31/201408/31/2013
Active Rigs543376194185

RBN Energy: Sempra and Boardwalk's proposed Permian-to-Katy gas pipeline.
In the short term, Permian natural gas will be dealing with the aftermath of Harvey and what it might do to associated gas production from crude oil wells being curtailed due to refinery downtime and storage capacity issues.  But that will soon be behind us, and at that point Permian natural gas production will resume its steep upward trajectory. Just a few months ago, the gas market was still sharpening pencils on potential gas takeaway constraints in West Texas, but congestion in the Waha gas market now appears as likely as another winning season for Alabama football. Where will this tide of natural gas end up? Until a few days ago, the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas was Number 1 on the list, but a new project has thrown the Katy Hub into the mix as a potential destination. Today we analyze an interesting approach to relieving Permian natural gas market constraints.

One thing we’ve yet to discuss here in the blogosphere is the potential impact of Permian natural gas arriving at the Agua Dulce Hub in 2020. Will these projects flip Agua Dulce from being short natural gas (as was our outlook in the “Miles of Texas” Drill Down series), to being long natural gas? If so, will excess gas need to flow northeast along the Texas Gulf Coast to the Katy and Houston Ship Channel (HSC) markets? Once that gas arrives in the Katy/HSC markets, will it find enough local demand? Or will it need to continue moving east into the Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana markets? Finally, what happens if Permian supply skips over Agua Dulce altogether and heads directly to Katy/HSC on a new greenfield pipeline? That last question is the subject for today as we look at the dynamics driving Sempra LNG & Midstream and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners’ Permian-to-Katy (P2K) pipeline open season. We will explore the other questions in a future bog series on the shifting Gulf Coast supply and demand dynamics.

Sempra and Boardwalk announced a non-binding open season for the Permian-to-Katy (P2K) pipeline on August 14, 2017. The proposed 42-inch-diameter pipeline would originate at the Waha Hub in the Permian and terminate at the Katy Hub just west of Houston. Just before reaching Katy, one leg of the pipeline would head south and interconnect with various interstate pipelines before terminating at Gulf South Pipeline Co.’s Coastal Bend Header (which will supply gas to Freeport LNG) in Wharton and Brazoria counties.

The P2K pipeline would require an estimated 24 months to build and cover 475 miles from Waha to Katy, approximately 10% longer than the distance from Waha to Agua Dulce. The project could provide capacity by December 2019 and would have an estimated transport rate of $0.45 to $0.55/MMBtu.
Jobs: first time unemployment claims -- pending. Forecast is for an increase of 3,000 over previous week.
  • prior: 234,000; revised: 235,000
  • consensus forecast: 237,000
  • new claims, actual: 236,000 -- up just 1,000
  • 4-week moving average: down to 236,750 from 238,000 (revised up slightly)

Colonial Pipeline Shut Down Due To Hurricane Harvey -- August 31, 2017

Updates

September 3, 2017: To re-open, Monday, September 4, 2017; link here.

August 31, 2017: Bloomberg -- President Trump will release 500,000 bbls of crude oil from the SPR for Phillips 66 Lake Charles refinery. 

August 31, 2017: Bloomberg update.
Motorists from Maine to Florida will soon feel the wrath of Hurricane Harvey without seeing a single raindrop. Fuel prices at the pump are likely to climb after Colonial Pipeline Co., the largest U.S. gasoline conduit, was forced shut its main diesel line late Wednesday and planned to halt its gasoline line Thursday because about half of Gulf Coast refining capacity was offline.
Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, both major Gulf Coast refiners, told wholesale customers Wednesday they don’t have enough gasoline and diesel to sell retail suppliers.
“It’s one thing to not have refiners,” Dan McTeague, an analyst at GasBuddy.com, a company which tracks retail prices and availability, said by phone. “It’s quite another thing to not have pipelines.”  
Hmmmm .... pipelines? I thought we didn't need any more pipelines.
 
Original Post
Link at CNN.

The Colonial has been shut down before, most recently October, 2016.

**************************
Solution

Senator Edward Markey has the solution: link here at Reuters via Rigzone:
  • release oil from the SPR 
  • release gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Reserve
Two comments:
  • a shortage of oil is not the problem; the refineries are shut down
  • gasoline? the US gasoline demand is about 10 million bbls/day; NEGR contains one million bbls of fuel at three sites in New York, the Boston area, and Maine
Either I'm missing something or we have another nominee for the 2017 Geico Rock Award

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The P Evitt Wells Have Been Updated -- August 30, 2017

Several P Evitt wells that were DUCs are now producing; older P Evitt wells have also been updated.

P Evitt wells are tracked here.

WPX Caribou Wells In Reunion Bay

The incredible Caribou wells (so far, only three Caribou wells, 9/19):
  • 32677, 2,520, WPX, Caribou 33-34HDL, Reunion Bay, 61 stages, 9.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 398K 9/19; full production profile here; off line 12/18 - 3/19;
  • 32678, 2,123, WPX, Caribou 33-34HZ, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 61 stages, 9.2 million lbs, t3/17; cum 295K 9/19;
  • 32679, 2,385, WPX, Caribou 33-34HG, Reunion Bay, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 312K 9/19;
#32677:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173027632276681392624408210990
BAKKEN5-20173138958388951792336886323980
BAKKEN4-20173049712497092720351546459180
BAKKEN3-201731575225736357345363551546714414
BAKKEN2-20170000000

#32678:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201723783478529630810269600
BAKKEN5-20173125097252082859425432224270
BAKKEN4-20172933306333184067734407305440
BAKKEN3-20173139591393695347820944129863403
BAKKEN2-20170000000

 #32679:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2017301739317317915514017118040
BAKKEN5-20173126282263721355723040199090
BAKKEN4-20172730766307671974129503259260
BAKKEN3-20172634764345695440318564119092616

WTI Closes Below $46; Eleven New Permits; Five DUCs Completed -- August 30, 2017

Super-long laterals/extended long laterals: an alert reader noted that the three CLR permits released today (see below) are super-long/extended long laterals. For newbies,
  • short laterals are generally about 5,000 feet long (9,000 vertical + 5,000 horizontal = 14,000-foot TD); generally EOG in the Parshall oil field;
  • long laterals are now the "norm" in the Bakken (9,000 vertical + 9,000 horizontal = 18,000-foot to 21,000-foot TD; almost everywhere in the Bakken, now; 1280-acre or 2-section laterals
  • super-long/extended long laterals: rare in the Bakken; 9,000 vertical + 15,000 horizontal = 24,000-foot to 27,000-foot long laterals;
See tags: SuperLongLaterals; ExtendedLongLaterals to see other examples.

*********************************
Summary: Daily Active Report

Active rigs:

$45.978/30/201708/30/201608/30/201508/30/201408/30/2013
Active Rigs543376194185

Eleven (11) new permits:
  • Operators: Crescent Point (8); CLR (3)
  • Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams); Elm Tree (McKenzie)
    Comments: Crescent Point has permits for an 8-well pad in NWNW 29-157-99; CLR has permits for a 3-well permit in NWNW 21-153-94
One permit renewed:
  • Cornerstone: a Melby permit renewed in Burke County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32172, 851, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-3H, Little Knife, t8/17; cum --
  • 33243, 1,090, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 2H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33244, 1,258, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 3H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33245, 1,196, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 4H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33246, 1,182, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 5H, Oliver, t8/17; cum 3K in 7 days;

Random Look At Production Profile Of A QEP Levang Well, Another Example Of The Peculiarity Of The Bakken -- August 30, 2017

These wells will not be updated here. They are followed elsewhere, but I wanted to show something interesting (at least I thought it was interesting):

The wells:
  • 22378, PNC, Helis, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail,
  • 24686, 2,207, QEP, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail, t8/13; cum 268K 6/17;
  • 24684, 2,805, QEP, G. Levang 2-32-39TH, Grail, t8/13; cum 383K 6/17;
  • 24685, 2,994, QEP, G. Levang 3-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 365K 6/17;
  • 24687, 2,740, QEP, G. Levang 4-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 303K 6/17;
These four G. Levang wells were all taken off-line from October, 2015, through mid-January, 2016, in when the QEP Boggs wells sited to the north, and running south parallel along the Levang wells were fracked. 

I posted that elsewhere, some time ago. Note that these four wells were taken off-line from October, 2015, through mid-January, 2016, while the QEP Boggs wells sited to the north, running south parallel along the Levang were fracked.

So, the question: what did the production profile look like for the Levang wells during that time period.

Let's look at the last one on the list:
  • 24687, 2,740, QEP, G. Levang 4-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 303K 6/17;
Here's the production profile of that well when it came back on line after a neighboring well was fracked:
BAKKEN12-201631388038661406101329163938
BAKKEN11-20163041504144111510645106450
BAKKEN10-201631535951471700976897680
BAKKEN9-20161413421473858232223220
BAKKEN8-201631371735682909630563050
BAKKEN7-201620272428151057579757970
BAKKEN6-201630423339781843665066500
BAKKEN5-20161214438673443440
BAKKEN4-201615362238161298594358620
BAKKEN3-20163199159898319714298123191761
BAKKEN2-2016291153011371498414511125101753
BAKKEN1-20161344843527339061295373620
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150030000
BAKKEN10-2015115713351331310
BAKKEN9-20158532510321198819710
BAKKEN8-20153120752018848997798750
BAKKEN7-20153167116698863960682541
 

Wow! EOG To Report Four Huge Wells -- August 30, 2017

These four wells are back on conf status, but they were SI/NC. First month production data has been reported and each of the wells is going to report 40,000+ bbls of crude oil in the first month of production. These are huge wells.

The wells:
  • 33050, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSE 7-151-94, 42K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32796, SI/NC, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 45K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32795, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 44K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32794, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 47K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
The Clarks Creek wells are followed here.

Early production numbers for these wells:

32796, SI/NC, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 45K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175204993206
7-20175970984999
6-20174548318118

 32795, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 44K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

ateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20174572479899
7-20175073872096
6-2017437481687


32794, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 47K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175114687778
7-20176603994086
6-20174739217014
  33050, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSE 7-151-94, 42K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175706994244
7-20176017085764
6-20174164515762

Selected Data Points From The Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 30, 2017

Some data points (and my comments) from the weekly petroleum report for the week ending August 25, 2017:
  • crude oil refinery inputs up slightly
  • refineries operating at 96.6% of their capacity
  • gasoline production increased; distillate fuel production decreased
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.4 million bbls -- now at 457.8 million bbls; this is the middle of the average range for this time of year
  • total gasoline inventories unchanged; near the upper limit of the average range (which makes the spike in gasoline prices even before any effect from Hurricane Harvey highly suspect -- as usual)
  • motor gasoline supplied average 9.7 million bbls/day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year (will this be seen on the weekly graph, yet to be posted?)
********************************
Tesla

In this week's issue of Barron's, the last major essay was written by David Rocker, a retired hedge fund manager who is short Tesla.

Some data points from the article:
  • Tesla requires repetitive capital raises to fund persistent operating losses
  • one of Tesla's major underwriters, Morgan Stanley, has an analyst covering Tesla, Adam Jonas --  "Astonishingly, Jonas raised his price target for Tesla despite recognizing the need to slash his earnings forecast." In May:
    • 2017 - a loss of $3.53; 2018 - a loss of $1.14; 2019 - a profit of $2.43. 
  • revised, his latest:
    • 2017 - a loss of $7.60 (compare to $3.53, just a few months earlier); 2018 - a loss of $3.66 (compare to $1.14 just a few months earlier); and, 2019 -- a profit of $2.01.
Wow.

More from the article:
Tesla has been around for 14 years and has cumulatively lost more than $3.7 billion despite the massive subsidies that it and its customers have received. SolarCity, also a beneficiary of alternative-energy subsidies, lost hundreds of millions of dollars before being bailed out by Tesla. As subsidies diminish, and competition emerges, profits will be even more elusive.
Sales of the Model S and Model X have been flat for four quarters. Tesla's rising inventory and shrinking deposits suggest declining demand (remember: Tesla recently cut the price of its Model X).
In February, 2012, Elon Musk said, "Tesla doesn't need to ever raise another financing round." Nine more financings followed.
Tesla is up again today, and in every typical range (daily, weekly, monthly, YTD, one year, five years, etc), Tesla's share prices, today, are in the green.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I follow Tesla because it helps me put the Bakken into perspective.

And The Number Is ... -- August 30, 2017 -- Down To 27 Weeks To Re-Balance

US crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) decreased by a whopping 5.4 million bbls, down to 457.8 million bbls. Wow.

Weeks to re-balance:

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
33
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27

Notes: on the weeekly re-balancing report. US crude oil reserves declined by 5.4 million bbls this past week. My estimate for re-balancing, if the decline stays on pace (average over past 18 weeks): 27 weeks.

From my perspective, this is much more quickly than I would have predicted just a few months ago. This takes us to the end of the year. I had expected the re-balancing to take us well into 2018, if ever.

Again, for newbies: I define re-balancing as having 350 million bbls of US crude oil in storage (does not include the SPR), or about 22 days of storage.

Comments: some pundits have said that due to Hurricane Harvey, there is simply no more room for oil in the pipelines; they are all backed up because the Gulf coast refiners can't take any more.

Some data points:
  • for the past 18 weeks, US crude oil inventories have decreased
  • the largest US storage area: Cushing, OK -- last time I checked, not impacted by Hurricane Harvey
  • pipelines from Eagle Ford, closed
  • pipelines from the Permian, status?
  • ships off-shore have not been able to download for the past several days (to the best of my knowledge, floating oil is not included in weekly US crude oil inventory numbers)
  • California oil is not affected
  • there are refineries in the northwest, midcontinent, and northeast that were not directly affected by Hurricane Harvey 
  • US gasoline demand near record highs
***********************************
Margaret Sanger: A Life Of Passion
Jean H. Baker
c. 2011
DDS: 363.9BAK

Chapter 1: Maggie Higgins: Daughter of Corning
  • US Civil War
  • Corning glassworks
  • Erie Canal
  • Maggie Higgins: born 1879
  • family's relationship with their Catholic church
  • poor upbringing
  • Erie Railroad bridge that spanned the Chemung River
  • 1895, 16 years old, boarding school
  • failed to complete 8 grades by school, by two weeks
  • enrolled at the Claverack College and Hudson River Institute in 1895/96?
  • a coeducational boarding school near Hudson, NY
  • originally a girls' school; then coeducational; good regional reputation
  • family unable to finance her through graduation; she completed only three years; did not graduate
Chapter 2: Mrs William Sanger of Hastings-on-Hudson
  • 1899, mother dies; Maggie brought home to tend to her dying mother
  • 1900: enters nursing school at the White Plains Hospital outside NYC
  • her goal: medical school; Cornell University in nearby Ithaca, NY 
  • only 5% of US doctors female at that time
  • many male suitors, despite being poor and uneducated
  • new opportunity, coincidentally: nurses needed for the Spanish-American War, in the Philippines
  • nursing schools increased in the US
  • White Plains Hospital was one of the beneficiaries of this new phenomenon
  • tuberculosis scare
  • meets William Sanger, a handsome, freelance draftsman, an aspiring architect and artist; at a dance
  • six months later, abruptly married
  • no longer "Higgins"
  • nurses forbidden to marry and she was expelled from nursing school
  • again, did not graduate
  • five months later, pregnant
  • tuberculosis, national epidemic
  • in a TB sanatorium while pregnant
  • shortly after baby Stuart's birth, Maggie relapsed (TB)
  • second son, born 1908; defiantly pregnant again 13 months later; Margaret (Peggy - born 1910)
  • never pregnant again
  • obviously the couple employed some form of birth control
  • US declining birth rates: by 1900, typical American woman had 3.2 children compared to 7.4 one century earlier
  • doctors saw birth control not as an opportunity to improve women's health, but rather as a hazard threatening their professional practices
  • overwhelmingly, physicians opposed any form of artificial contraception
  • Harvard graduate, president Teddy Roosevelt spoke of "race suicide"
  • in 1910, tranquil life
  • she joined a literary club, reading papers on George Eliot and Robert Browning
Chapter 3: Comrade Sanger
 
The rest of the notes are posted here.