Thursday, July 13, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+173, Part II -- July 13, 2017

Enquiring minds want to know: will CNBC, Rachel Maddow, Morning Joe, or anyone else cover Mark Zuckerberg's visit to Williston, ND? I do believe that Williston, ND, is the only place in the world where Christiane Amanpour has not visited and CNN does not have a film crew. LOL.

Lithium: the new "peak oil."

List of 12: Motley Fool lists the top twelve (12) crude oil producing countries in the universe. Six of those countries are not part of OPEC and, according to Motley Fool are "keeping OPEC's dominance at bay":
  • Mexico, #12 - crude oil production has fallen 32% since 2004, due to the natural decline in its large Cantareil field
  • Brazil, #10 - its oil production has risen more than 40% in the past decade after opening its fields to foreign investment
  • Canada, #7 - US crude oil imports -- 38% from Canada; 34% from OPEC
  • China, #6 - used to be a net exporter; now due to huge domestic demand, the world's largest importer of crude oil
  • United States, #3 - EOG singled out by Motley Fool
  • Russia, #1 - actually topped Saudi Arabia in average daily production, after delivering, last year, its best annual average of the past three decades. Russia sanctions? What Russian sanctions?  See first comment: it is incredibly interesting to me that the US and Angela Merkel are so far apart on this issue -- my hunch is that the G-20 conference had more to do with Russian sanctions than with climate concerns. From the first comment: the outcome of the new Russian sanctions would force Trump in a position of choosing between an escalation of domestic attacks over his "allegiance" to Russia, or burning even more bridges with European allies such as Germany, Austria, France and other nations invested in Nord Stream 2, who have warned the US not to proceed with the sanctions.
    On Saturday, it appeared that Trump appears to have chosen the latter option, because the "White House is expected to push House Republicans to change the Senate’s Russia sanctions bill to make it more friendly to Russia."
Edwards: liked by Zacks. Whoo-hoo.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

New wells coming off confidential list: this is longest dry spell since I started the blog. We haven't seen any wells come off the confidential list since Monday and we won't see any until tomorrow, when we see two.

Dreamers Act: President Trump, during his early days, suggested that his administration might defend (support) President Obama's "Dreamers Act" which some suggested was a huge illegal amnesty program. President Trump said he had "a big heart" and might support the Dreamers Act. The tea leaves now suggest that Trump may not support Obama's amnesty program. I'm sure it has nothing to do with all the crap that the Trump administration and his family has had to put up with, but at some point, even someone as magnanimous as Trump (remember, he said he had no interest in having his DOJ pursue Hillary) can take only so much. The irony is that it's very possible his DOJ is so busy and Trump's agenda is so filled with "Russian stuff," the administration simply does not have the resources (human, time, money) to defend an Obama policy. I remember my days as part of the "Deep State" and knew that even there we had to prioritize our agenda.

Continued: read this article, and ask yourself -- seriously: if the Democrats in the US Senate and the House had actually been even a little supportive of the Trump administration could things be a bit different with regard to immigration policy for this group of folks? I mean, this affects kids that have been here for sixteen years; many of whom have no idea of their legal status. "A million" sounds like a huge number but against a population of 360 million it is a drop in the bucket.

Personal dream: getting back to Flathead Lake, Montana, full-time.

Physics: does water expand or contract in volume when it freezes? Something to think about when trying to tie sea levels with the chunk of ice that broke away from Antarctica this past week. If that is too difficult, then ask this: if one has a flake of ice in a gallon of water, how much will the water level rise/fall in that gallon bucket when that flake of ice melts? LOL. If the link is broken, google -- After Antarctica sheds a trillion-ton block of ice, the world asks: Now what?

4 comments:

  1. More on Russia sanctions:

    --- The Senate wants tough new sanctions against Russia, but key U.S. allies are furious. Here’s why. ---
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/27/the-senate-wants-tough-new-sanctions-against-russia-but-key-u-s-allies-are-furious-heres-why/?utm_term=.fe6c44dbbd01

    [W]hen the Senate passed a bill renewing sanctions, it changed their justification, playing down Ukraine and emphasizing Russian interference in U.S. elections....

    The bill would target companies that support “Russian export pipelines.” … Yet Europeans think that this is basically their own business, not Washington’s....

    The Senate’s bill explicitly calls for U.S. energy exports [LNG] to be prioritized, linking this to the creation of U.S. jobs and the strengthening of U.S. foreign policy.

    --- Germany’s Angela Merkel slams planned US sanctions on Russia ---
    http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-slams-planned-us-sanctions-on-russia/a-39276878

    Merkel’s concern at the US plans, which were not coordinated with EU allies, chimes in with that of German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern, who in a joint statement on Thursday also hit out at the proposed sanctions.

    Gabriel and Kern’s comments centered on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project to pump Russian natural gas via the Baltic Sea to Germany, which involves Russia’s Gazprom along with European energy firms including Germany’s Wintershall and Austria’s ÖMV.

    “Europe’s energy supply is a matter for Europe, and not for the United States of America!” wrote Kern and Gabriel, who was previously the German economy minister….

    Threatening European firms also active in the US with sanctions if they participated in Nord Stream 2 injected “a completely new, and very negative dimension into European-American relations,” the statement said.

    --- Trump Cornered: White House Pushing To Weaken Russia Sanctions Bill ---
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-17/white-house-reportedly-pushing-weaken-russia-sanctions-bill

    [A]ny attempt by Trump to prevent the bill from passing - despite the outcry of America's closest allies in Europe - would be immediately seen as a further attempt by Trump to cede to his "Russian spy masters" and be immediately spun by the "objective" press as confirmation of leverage the Kremlin has over the president, who is already neck deep in allegations he has colluded with Russia.

    In other words, the outcome of the new Russian sanctions would force Trump in a position of choosing between an escalation of domestic attacks over his "allegiance" to Russia, or burning even more bridges with European allies such as Germany, Austria, France and other nations invested in Nord Stream 2, who have warned the US not to proceed with the sanctions.

    On Saturday, it appeared that Trump appears to have chosen the latter option, because the "White House is expected to push House Republicans to change the Senate’s Russia sanctions bill to make it more friendly to Russia."

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    Replies
    1. it is incredibly interesting to me that the US and Angela Merkel are so far apart on this issue -- my hunch is that the G-20 conference had more to do with Russian sanctions than with climate concerns.

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    2. Well, it's all way over my paygrade to understand the currents, eddies and whirlpools of geopolitics. Nevertheless, it does seem there is a split amongst the U.S. governing class between those who want to maintain U.S. global hegemony and those who don't. This, it seems, is what motivates the muh-Russia conspiracy mongering. It also seems that all politics is energy politics, including climate change politics.

      Here's an interesting take from south of the border, from a very pro-Russian Mexican politlogue (translation mine):

      --- Underneath the Magnifying Glass ---
      G20 in Hamburg: The G3 (US, Russia and China) put an end to the “neoliberal global order”
      http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2017/07/09/opinion/014o1pol

      The first week of July 2017 seems to have meant a metahistorical turning point that is heading for a new tripolar order between the two great nuclear superpowers (US and Russia) and the greatest geoeconomic superpower (China)....

      It sounds paradoxical that Trump was isolated by the 19 members of the G20 on the issue of climate change and free trade, while at the same time Putin eclipsed Western sanctions from the US and Europe....

      The first week of July exhibited a G2 of Russia and China pulling Trump, in the absence of mutual bellicosity, towards a G3....

      After the troubled German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that “Europe must take its destiny with its own hands”, the transatlantic globalists panicked over the trumpian protectionist policy of “America First”, which, in the opinion of the fanatic global neoliberal Wolfgang Schäuble, means the destruction of the “global neoliberal order (sic) that would give great influence to China and Russia.”

      In my interview with Sputnik and Radio Uruguay I argued that “a G3 can end the neoliberal world order,” with Merkel being the great loser — this being the third global defeat for Germany, the maximum geo-economic power of the European Union, in 100 years.

      Not counting her sterile, holy alliance with Obama, Merkel made several mistakes that her lucid ancestors — Adenauer, Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt, Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder, both of the Conservative party and the Social Democratic Party — would not have committed. In seeking to position herself as the leader of the “global neoliberal order” on both sides of the North Atlantic, she collided with the two nuclear superpowers on the planet: with Trump in geoeconomic matters and with Putin in geopolitics.

      Geopolitics, which Merkel despises so much, annihilated her and her “global neoliberal order.”

      Worse: regardless of whether one supports the Paris climate agreement or not, Merkel made it a casus belli against Trump....

      Trump distanced himself from Germany while drawing nearer to Russia.

      The geostrategically orphaned Germany and Japan, losers of world wars and rebuilt by the United States, lack nuclear teeth and confuse supremely important geostrategy with vulgar mercantile neoliberalism, not to mention “climate change”....

      Merkel suffered two outrageous put-downs from Trump: in Warsaw, before arriving in Germany, the controversial business president attacked the Nazi occupation in the iconic Krasinski square, while, with total disregard for protocol, at the G20 summit allowed his daughter, a frivolous socialite with no diplomatic skills, to stand in for him.

      A photo on the front page of Deutsche Welle shows how crudely Merkel covers her face with her hands in the face of the impetuosity of Trump.

      According to Bloomberg, Merkel plays a very risky electoral game in the face of the election of September 24, attempting to distract Germans from their domestic woes by beating up on the US.

      In my view, the economic format of the G20, now transmuted into an environmentalist agenda, was buried in Hamburg and will be gradually replaced by the US / Russia / China G3.

      While waiting for the outcome of the second meeting of Xi with the business president Trump, we must not underestimate the ability of the US Deep State to derail the G3.

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    3. Just got back from tough bike ride; will come back to this later. Again, thank you.

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