Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Are EIA Drilling Productivity Reports Misleading The Market? BTU Analytics -- July 26, 2017

Wow, talk about a great article, from BRU Analytics, sent to me by a reader: are EIA drilling productivity reports are misleading the market?
BTU Analytics would contend that those hoping that Permian productivity has hit a peak and thus US oil production forecasts are overblown are deceiving themselves. 
There are several potential flaws with modeling rig productivity utilizing [EIA's] approach. The first flaw is that it assumes all new production in period 2 originated from rigs active just two months prior. It’s no secret at this point that the industry has a tremendous ability to add rigs quickly to a region, but completion crews often fail to keep pace with producers in the basin. From 2009-2015, operators in the Marcellus and Utica outstripped the ability of infrastructure and completion crews to keep pace with drilling activity, leading to a peak of nearly 1,600 wells in excess backlog, and oil plays have been no different. The price crash in 2015 led operators to defer completions across all of the major oil producing areas, leading to an excess backlog that peaked in 2016 at over 2,000 wells in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Niobrara.
Archived: it's a great article.

This is one of the reasons I am not a fanatic about posting EIA drilling productivity reports. I post them periodically, but less and less it seems.

The Sports Page

From Business Insider:
Phil Mickelson is known far and wide for being one of golf's greatest champions — and one of the sport's biggest trash talkers. But the 47-year-old may have run his mouth one to many times at last week's Open Championship.
In 2013, Mickelson won his first and only British Open title after shooting a legendary final round of 66. The victory earned him the Claret Jug in addition to several privileges, including an exemption into the event through age 60 and a spot in the champions' section of the locker room.

It was that last perk that led to Mickelson's latest quip. The veteran was preparing for a practice round when he decided to mess with one of the game's elite players. According to The Telegraph:
"The 47-year-old was in his normal playful demeanor, spotting Jordan Spieth walking into the wrong section of the locker room and telling his young countryman: 'This right here is for past champions.'"
Spieth must have really wanted a spot in that champions' locker room, because he promptly delivered a performance for the ages at Royal Birkdale. The Texan was the only player in the field to shoot four rounds in the 60s, and on Sunday afternoon, he became just the sixth player ever to go wire-to-wire at the Open Championship.

Mickelson has referred to his British Open win as his "greatest accomplishment," however he didn't earn a spot in the champions' locker room until he was 43. Next year, Mickelson is going to have to share the area with the 24-year-old Spieth.
The article failed to mention that Phil missed the cut this year at The Open. I wonder if Phil congratulated Jordan. Pretty funny.

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