Thursday, June 22, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+153 -- June 22, 2017

The Opening: This is simply bizarre. The markets continue to climb the wall of worry; this is the 9th year of the second or third longest expansion in US history. And yet, today, the market continues to climb (barely) despite the energy sector pulling the indices down. Really quite remarkable.

The buzz is that 2Q17 GDP will come very, very close to 3%.

This could all work out very well for President Trump. The Obama recovery was the weakest recovery in history (that's not an opinion). Whatever Obama recovery there was, it dragged out of six years, allowing it to continue into the new administration.

Oil. Most interesting factoid that was reported yesterday -- most oil companies -- at least the majors and the larger independents have met their full-year commitments. They could all quit drilling today and still report meeting production forecasts.

Oil. It is hard to believe that this was posted in 2014 --
And technology improves so fast on U.S. fields that what looked uneconomical two years ago looks economical today, even with lower prices. According to an analysis from Barclays, 90 percent of production from the U.S. Bakken province will still be profitable even if oil prices fall to $60 per barrel.
Deep doo-doo. For the Saudis. Jim Cramer says he doesn't see oil getting back to $50. Ever. ("Ever," of course, it not "forever.") Yesterday, there was a short conversation among talking heads suggesting it would require a major geo-political event in the Mideast to get oil back to $50.

Navajo Nation: not looking good. From PennEnergy:
The Navajo Nation Council has tabled legislation seeking to extend the lease on a coal-fired power plant in northern Arizona.
Council members say they'll wait for a special session on the issue Monday in Window Rock. The current lease for the Navajo Generating Station in Page is scheduled to expire in December 2019.
If the tribe doesn't approve a lease extension by July 1, the plant will have to close at the end of this year to be torn down by 2020.

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