Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Crude Oil Drawdown: 2.5 Million Bbls -- At This Rate -- 62 Weeks To Re-Balance -- June 21, 2017

(Update: methodology was wrong in some parts of this table; it has been updated and corrected at this post):

Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

Week 1
May 3, 2017
Week 2
May 10, 2017
Week 3
May 17, 2017
Week 4
May 24, 2017
Week 5
May 31, 2017
Week 6
June 7, 2017
Week 7
June 14, 2017
Week 8
June 21, 2017

When the mainstream business media talks about "re-balancing," they are talking about getting back to the "5-year-average," whatever that is. I don't know if I've ever seen the "5-year-average" noted by a mainstream journalist.

John Kemp, Reuters, continues to use the much better metric: 10-year averages and range. The 10-year average is around 350 million bbls of US crude oil (not including the SPR). 

Whatever it is, it's skewed by the Saudi surge from 2014 to 2016, the first of two trillion-dollar mistakes by the Saudis. In fact, for meaningful "re-balancing" to occur and a return to more bullish crude oil prices we need to see US crude oil supplies fall back to the "historical average" -- a 21-day supply or about 350 million bbls.

Right now, the rate of drawdown, averaging 2.55 million bbls/week since April 26, 2017, means that it will take 62 weeks to "re-balance." That would be late 2018.

Note: in the table above, a "negative" number in the "drawdown column" (the third column) means that there was a build in the crude oil inventories. Drawdown and storage (columns three and four) are in millions of bbls.

Disclaimer: my own data may very slightly from official sources for various reasons. I often make simple arithmetic errors.
The Whisky Page

I first read about the peculiarities of Talisker in Whiskypedia: A Compendium of Scottish Whisky, Charles MacLean, c. 2010, page 307. I bought the book used through a third party seller at Amazon; I think it cost less than $5, plus shipping. New, it was an $18 book. The book arrived shrink-wrapped and in perfect condition. The best thing about it: the spine is not broken or bruised or cracked but the pages lie flat, suggesting the previous owner really enjoyed the book. But not one extraneous mark or dog-eared page. But I digress.

Page 307: a unique characteristic of Talisker is the peppery, even chilli-peppery (sic) 'catch' as you swallow. Nobody knows where it comes from.

After I read that I was determined to find a Talisker to taste. I assume it's easy to find, but surprisingly my go-to spirits store -- which has a very, very large collection of Scotch -- did not carry Talisker.

Last night, traveling a bit out of the local area, I visited another spirits store, and low and behold, they had two bottles of the 10-year Talisker.

Some other data points regarding Talisker:
  • the distillery was founded in 1830
  • the Talisker house was where Johnson and Boswell stayed in 1764 -- somewhere I have a copy of A Journey to the Western Islands of Scotland
  • multiple owners since
  • absorbed by D.C.L. in 1916
  • at one time, triple distilled; 1925, double distilled
  • one of only a handful of malts bottled as singles in the early 20th century
  • until 1988, bottled at 8YO; thereafter at 10YO
  • an oddity: it is traditionally bottled at slightly higher than standard strength
  • very few independent bottlings have been done, since the malt is extensively used in the Johnnie Walker blends
  • Robert Louis Stevenson, 1887: "The King o' drinks as I conceive it -- Talisker, Islay, or Glenlivet."
  • barley comes from eastern Scotland; adds greatly to the cost of Talisker
  • at one time there were seven distilleries on the isle of Skye, but now there is only one: Talisker
I have not opened the bottle; I have not tasted it. I do not know when I will open the bottle. I have to really be in the right mood to try it for the first time. I'm looking for the best food pairing. Perhaps English crisps, or perhaps sushi. 

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