Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #43 -- May 24, 2017

Just moments ago I completed a fairly lengthy note on PJM and recent energy requirements auction.

Finishing that us, I went to twitter and this was the first link, from Bloomberg:

`Gas Apocalypse' Looms Amid Power Plant Construction Boom 

The lede:
The glut of cheap natural gas from a single, gigantic, shale basin that straddles the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest has sparked a massive construction boom of power plants. Dozens have been built in the past two years alone.

There’s just one problem: There isn’t nearly enough electricity demand to support all the new capacity. And as wholesale electricity prices plunge, industry experts are anticipating a fire sale of scores of plants in the region. Many, in fact, have already been sold along the PJM Interconnection LLC grid, the nation’s largest, encompassing 13 states from Virginia to Illinois.

“Everything in fossil fuels is for sale,” said Ted Brandt, chief executive officer at Marathon Capital LLC, a mergers-and-acquisitions adviser in Chicago. “People are bleeding.”
More:
Drawing from abundant, cheap and nearby natural gas in the country’s most prolific shale field, the new plants are adding a gigantic amount of power generation -- more than 20 gigawatts --- to a region that arguably has more than it needs. The new gas-fired plants are also coming online at a time of market turmoil, buffeted by Obama administration efficiency policies that have helped tamp down demand and by the Trump administration’s determination to keep old coal-fired plants going.
Spot wholesale prices at PJM’s benchmark Western hub slumped to an average of $28.79 per megawatt-hour last year, falling by more than half since 2008 as the shale boom took hold. Many players are exiting the market.
Wow, another memo for Jane Nielson. 

The tea leaves suggest that without federal and state mandates/relief/subsidies the following industries are the canaries in the coal mine: nuclear, solar, and wind (perhaps not in that order).

2 comments:

  1. the BLM article says: There’s just one problem: There isn’t nearly enough electricity demand to support all the new capacity.
    no, there's two problems. There also isn’t nearly enough natural gas to support all the new capacity.
    natural gas supplies were at a record 4 trillion cubic feet in October, now they're 15% below the same date a year ago, despite a warm winter when heating demand (as per Kemp) was 17% below normal. existing gas wells are being depleted and not replaced, and wont be as long as natgas prices stay below $4. it'll take a crunch, then some length of time, before that gets rebalanced.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ... and, of course, the folks that continue to block new and necessary natural gas pipelines to move that natural gas.

      Delete