Thursday, May 4, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+104 -- May 4, 2017

Boom? Dow 30 futures suggest market could open up 50 to 60 points.

Bust? WTI down 1.5%. Support at $47? We'll see. The good news: based on yesterday's drawdown, only 200 days until US supply/demand "rebalanced." Meanwhile Saudi Arabia caught with hand in the cookie jar, or better said, with siphoning hose in their crude oil storage depots. 

Saudi Aramco IPO: "everything" will still be controlled by Saudi "government." I guess that means no voting rights for shareholders. I wonder how the SEC feels about this.

Beating the Saudis to the punch? Kuwait Energy to be OPEC state's first London-traded company.

Stallion: Ferrari's profit jumps on surging demand for big-engine supercars. Several story lines in this article, but this is what caught my attention: Ferrari is on track to deliver 8,400 vehicles this year. Meanwhile, Musk Melon says he will deliver 5,000 vehicles high-end, luxury EVs each week starting this July. As of today, folks who follow this industry suggest that Tesla has not begun Model 3 production yet, and has not done any on-the-road testing. I don't know. But it's pretty incredible that a company that's been in business for decades is "on track to produce 8,400 vehicles this year" and then there's a start-up that says it can produce 5,000 vehicles per week.

Compliance? It depends on the definition of "compliance." Some data points form Platts:
  • OPEC April output unchanged from March output
  • total output 80,000 bopd greater than agreed-upon ceiling when Indonesia production (730,000bopd) added in (Indonesia suspended its OPEC membership, November, 2016)
  • production increases in Angola, Nigeria offset drops in Libya, Iraq (and now Libya is back "up" again in April
  • overall, Platts sees all this as "in compliance" 
  • as noted: depends on the definition 

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