Tuesday, May 2, 2017

John Kemp's Weekly Analysis Of Crude Oil -- May 2, 2017

In the discussions about "re-balancing" and "supply/demand" we have a gazillion experts voicing their opinions. It's my opinion that folks are not paying attention to the time frames involved. For example, yesterday on CNBC, the Chevron CEO said US shale cannot meet the world's growing demand for crude oil. From the interview:
Global oil demand is growing by more than a million barrels per day each year.
American producers are meeting much of that consumption growth after a revolution in drilling technology that has allowed them to unlock oil and gas from shale rock formations.
That was the takeaway: shale won't be able to keep up.

But I wonder if most folks missed the time frame (maybe traders didn't; oil is back below $49 again today after rising above $49 earlier):
"Shale can help. Certainly between now and the end of the decade it will be a big contributor to meeting that million-barrels-of-oil-demand growth that's out there."
Between now and the end of the decade shale will be a big contributor to the meeting the million-bbls-oil-demand but eventually shale oil will decline.
Maybe. But I've heard the same "peak oil" mantra since 1973.

Be that as it may, John Kemp posted his analysis of the current shale debate at Reuters earlier today.

Four of his data points:
  • total U.S. crude production has increased from a recent low of 8.567 million bpd in September to 9.031 million bpd in February
  • production continued rising in March and April, and now stands at over 9.2 million bpd, according to weekly estimates published by the agency  
  • weekly estimates are considered less reliable than the monthly numbers, but the two series have tended to follow one another closely, so there is no reason to doubt the continued growth in output 
  • U.S. crude production is increasing at an annual rate of more than 1 million bpd, comparable to the boom of 2012-2014
This is what jumped out at me:
  • the Chevron CEO says global demand is rising at the rate of one million bopd per year
  • John Kemp's data suggests that US production alone is rising at the rate of one million bopd per year
But there's even more: most of the this increased US production has come from non-shale producers in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, but Kemp notes: the massive increase in the number of rigs drillign onshore should ensure shale output rises substantially in the remainder of 2017.

Kemp has many, many more data points at the linked article above.

Idle chatter.

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