Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Bullish On America -- May 10, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, relationship, travel, or job decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

I could not possibly be in a better mood from an investing point of view.

The tea leaves suggest oil and oil service companies are going to do just fine. Remember: oil is boom and bust.

Some data points:
  • ND rig count at 51
  • flash crash for crude oil brought oil down to $43 the other night; today, back to $47; the actual number is not important; the trend is important
  • US CAPEX for on-shore drilling is running 10x greater than the rest of the world: lots of jobs
  • Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs; Dow 30 not far behind
  • EOG cash costs coming in at $13 for a bbl of oil
  • we have a POTUS who doesn't take time to draw lines in the sand; he's make a decision and moves on
  • drawdown of crude oil most recent reporting period: huge; 6 million bopd; at this rate, only 28 weeks to get to "hysterical" levels
  • summer will soon be here: driving season; Saudi needs to keep more of its oil at home
  • EIA's short-term outlook looks better and better each month
  • a CLR well with an IP of "754" goes on to produce a half million bbls; only eight years into production; will produce for 30+ years;
  • OPEC will extend cuts; OPEC running out of options
  • EURs for Bakken wells now tracking one million boe type curves
  • one can buy Bakken minerals for as little as $1 / acre vs $40,000 / acre in the Permian
  • Texas is in hyperdrive

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