Monday, May 1, 2017

Apple Earnings To Be Reported Tuesday -- May 1, 2017

Update: Apple has a quarter-trillion dollars in cash. More cash than Canada and UK combined

Update: AAPL now pays out more in dividends that US Steel is worth.

Update: earnings 1Q17
  • headline: Apple iPhone sales disappoint
  • a beat on earnings, but a miss on sales
  • EPS: $2.10 vs $2.02 forecast (huge)
  • revenue: $52.9 billion vs $53.02 forecast (hardly a miss)
  • iPhone sales: 50.8 million (vs 52 million forecast) -- hardly a miss
  • average selling price: $655 vs $666 forecast
  • shares down 1.5%
  • guidance: $43.5 - $45.5 vs $45.7
  • raised dividend 10.5% to $0.63/share
  • boosted share buyback authorization to $210 billion
  • will return $300 billion to shareholders by March, 2019
  • shares outstanding: 5.25 billion 
  • $300 / 5.25 = almost $60/share 
  • iPhone sales down 1% from same quarter last year
  • iPad sales fell 13% to 8.9 million units
  • Mac sales rose 4% to 4.2 million units
  • services businesses up 18% against last year, $7.04 billion
  • other businesses (includes Apple Watch) up 31% against last year, to $2.87 billion 
  • hit record cap of $775 billion before dropping back about 1.5% after earnings released 
    • Alphabet (Google): $647 billion
    • Microsoft: $536 billion
    • Amazong: $452 billion
Original Post
Data points:
  • US population: 330 million
  • one-fourth of the American public -- one out of every four Americans -- acquired an iPhone during the holiday period in 1Q17 -- not during the quarter, but during the holiday period (at least that's what was said at the linked article)
  • Apple sold 78.3 million iPhones during the 1Q17 holiday season
  • average selling price of each iPhone: $695 (Wall Street forecast: $688)
  • Apple's 2nd quarter is generally among its weakest (for obvious reasons)
  • 20 - 30% of consumers prefer a more expensive iPhone model to a less expensive iPhone model
  • Apple earnings to be reported Tuesday
  • forecast: 52 million sold iPhones, an increase of 1 million iPhones from same quarter one year ago
  • forecast: 33% of consumers will have preferred a more expensive iPhone model rather than a less expensive iPhone model
So, we'll see.

So,
  • if during their best quarter: 80 million phones
  • the worst quarter: 50 million phones
  • splitting the difference, 65 million phones in each of the two other quarters
  • total: 260 iPhones sold in one year
  • one has to assume, not every Apple iPhone user bought a new iPhone in 2016
Well, you can do the math.

I don't own a smart phone. Never have. Never will. I probably shouldn't say "never."

But in our older daughter's family, the only member who doesn't have an iPhone is Sophia; she will turn three years old this summer. My wife has an iPhone. The only holdouts, it appears: our older daughter out in Portland, and, me.

2 comments:

  1. The only two flip phones in America, you and "Leroy Jethro Gibbs" of NCIS fame.

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    Replies
    1. Pretty good company, I suppose. You probably noticed the Scotch tape at the bottom -- it was not holding the phone together. I have emergency contact numbers taped on the back side. That's the "contact list." LOL.

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