Monday, April 24, 2017

Why Re-Balancing Is Failing -- Part II -- Platts -- April 24, 2017

Platts, link here 

I have not read this article yet, and may not get to it until tomorrow.

I am curious how my "world view" / myth compares to the analysis provided in this three-part series by Platt.

For me, this is my "world view":
  • re-balancing won't succeed in calendar year 2017
  • re-balancing unlikely to succeed in 2018
  • those investing in the oil sector need to have a very, very long time frame / horizon (note: I am talking about investors, not traders) (very, very long time frame = 10 years or more)
Definitions: I define "success/failure" of "re-balancing" this way:
  • the trend for higher crude oil prices is definite and obvious; "everyone" agrees prices are heading higher; headlines in the mainstream media wring their hands over higher oil prices
  • the price quoted in the "crawlers" for WTI is clearly well above $60 and trending toward $75 in today's dollars through 2018
It will be interesting how those views compare to Platts.

Will OPEC Production Cuts Fail?

Rigzone link here.

Again, I have not read the article yet. I am curious how their views compare to mine. 

No comments:

Post a Comment