Sunday, April 30, 2017

Random Look At An HRC Well Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- April 30, 2017

This well will be coming off confidential this week:
  • 31970, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20173706078640
1-20174169081580
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

A reader noted that if one converts the gas volumes to boe, the well flowed about 250,000 boe in the first four months; 174,000 bbls were oil.

The Rolfson S wells are tracked here; when these wells are reported this week, I will update the Rolfson S wells.

Oops! Tesla Just Delayed The Roll-Out Of Its Solar Roof -- April 30, 2017

Link here. And we're not talking a month or two. Musk Melon says two of four shingle options won't be available until (wink, wink) early 2018. His solution, by the way, appears not inexpensive. I don't know. Just a thought.

A Bunch Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week, Including Some Nice Oasis Rolfson Wells And HRC Fort Berthold Wells -- April 30, 2017

Wells coming off confidential list early in the week:

Wednesday, May 3, 2017:
29880, conf, WPX, Etstatis 32-29HA, Eagle Nest, no production data,
30247, see below, HRC Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-7H, Four Bears,
30870, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, North Fork, no production data,
32133, conf, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 42-19MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32486, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32667, conf, SM Energy, Steen 16-20HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Tuesday, May 2, 2017:
29881, SI/NC, WPX. Etstatis 32-29H, Eagle Nest, t11/16; cum 84K 3/17;
30244, 2,251, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-10H, Four Bears, Three Forks, 37 stages, 5.6 million lbs;
30869, SI/NC, BR, Curtis 21-16 MBH-2NH, North Fork, no production data,
31989, 1,658, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston, 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, t11/16; cum 151K 2/17;
32134, SI/NC, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 42-19 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32668, drl, SM Energy, Edna Marie 16B-20HN, Ambrose, no production data,
33126, drl, North Range Resources, Sheep Creek Storm 1-IV, Grassy Butte, producing,

Monday, May 1, 2017:
29882, SI/NC, WPX, Etstatis 32-29HW, Eagle Nest, no production data,
30248, 2,101, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-6H, Four Bears,
31189, SI/NC, WPX, Poplar 32-29HE, Eagle Nest, no production data,
31970, 2,125, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston,
31971, 2,372, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston,
32135, SI/NC, BR, CCU Pacific Express 42-19 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32136, SI/NC, BR, CCU Pacific Express 42-19 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32579, 2,135, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-5H, Four Bears,
32669, SI/NC  SM Energy, Sophus 16-20HS, Ambrose, no production data,
32687, 1,673, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HW, Spotted Horn, no production data,
32721, SI/NC, BR, Remington 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Sunday, April 30, 2017
31969, 1,353, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston,
32635, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, Camel Butte, no production data,
32683, 2,198, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HA, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Saturday, April 29, 2017
32628, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, no production data,
32670, SI/NC, SM Energy, Stella 16B-20HS, Ambrose, no production data,

************************

31969, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 2TX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20172429647506
1-20173047058301
12-20162650549846
11-20162823945484
10-20167903622

31970, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 3BX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20173706078640
1-20174169081580
12-20165129683647
11-20164412460474
10-20165682252

31971, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 11-29 4T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20171906045280
1-20172425053939
12-20162158539853
11-20162995732603

31989, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 12-29 5B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20172374654674
1-20174073475391
12-20164695479977
11-20163902147861

30247, see above, HRC Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-7H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171704722620
2-20171714020716
1-20172165023642
12-20162223622864
11-20162301826627

30244, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-10H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171599820549
2-20171548120571
1-201778488507
12-20162753729705
11-20161643021587

30248, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-6H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20171731030462
2-20171732821776
1-20172269525295
12-20162295723381
11-20162914035771

32579, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-7C-6-5H, Four Bears:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2017909713098
2-20171721722222
1-20171862422900
12-20162919730337
11-20163691839130

33126, see above, North Range Resources, Sheep Creek Storm 1-IV, Grassy Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201716400
1-20173590

The Oil Glut Is Moving To The Right -- Bloomberg -- April 30, 2017

Updates

May 1, 2017: Get over the OPEC meeting, already -- Bloomberg.
  • OPEC has no choice but to extend its production cuts
  • the extension will be a gift from the conference room in Vienna to the boardrooms of Texas and California
Original Post 

A reader sent me the link to this story: the oil glut is moving to the right.

My unedited, perhaps "not-ready-for-prime time" reply:
Excellent, excellent essay. Follows exactly what I've been saying on the blog for the past few months, but taking it one more step that has only been reported/seen in the last few weeks.
1. The first story: the oil glut.

2. The second story: the oil glut is being moved to the right -- refined products: gasoline and distillates.
This essay stresses the second story.

But the first story cannot be overlooked. For years, historically before 2015, the US was doing fine with 350 million bbls of crude oil in storage with 21 days of crude oil supply.

Now, we have 530 million bbls of crude oil in storage and 32 days of crude oil supply. These stories of weekly drawdowns of 3 million bbls/week are ludicrous. At 3 million bbls/week, it would take ((530 - 350)/3) = 60 weeks just to get back to where we were historically.

(By the way, the writer mentioned in passing the drawdown of the SPR - that, too, is / was a drop in the bucket -- the SPR drawdown is being done over several months -- I forget how long.)

A drawdown of 3 million bbls/week would consistently have to happen for 60 weeks -- more than a year. The price of oil, in my mind, is now disconnected from reality and has become an emotional response (in fact, nothing new). So, as the price of oil goes up even a bit, US shale production will increase -- making it less likely that drawdowns of 3 million bbls will happen week-after-week for the next 60 weeks (more than a year from now). And as the price increases based on these "emotional" stories that the drawdown continues, US shale will increase, and soon OPEC will become even more nervous about losing market share, and then OPEC cuts will end, as the new mantra becomes: "every Arab for himself."

A number of very smart folks who read the blog "religiously" disagree with me, suggesting that the decrease in conventional exploration since 2014 will catch up with us sooner than later. But I look at the huge amount of money that was spent on conventional exploration in 2009, 2012, and 2014, and suggest that this focus on conventional exploration has been over-hyped. It's been reported more than once that those projects begun in 2009, 2012, and 2014, are now just beginning to come on line. And producers will maximize production from those conventional projects now that the costs have been sunk (literally and figuratively).

For me, it's more about demand than supply right now. The US has to increase demand, but China has to really increase demand. India could be a big help but I don't think India becomes a significant player in the supply/demand story for another decade. A country like India can move only so fast. I may be wrong, but India seems focused on its internal economy; the US and China appear focused on the global economy. Maybe India is exporting more products to the world that I am aware, but I certainly haven't seen any indication. [I could be wrong, but India Pale Ale is a product made outside of India.]

So, back to the linked story. The oil glut moving to the right is a really, really bad news story for Prince Salman as he belatedly tries to turn his oil-producing economy to an oil-refining economy. Too little, too late, Not only does he not have the capital to do that, his country has neither the expertise, nor the inherent entrepreneurial genome required.

For investors, it seems like a great time to be looking at investing in refineries. In fact, XOM doubled its profits only because of midstream and downstream. It lost money on upstream. With regard to investing, I have always said I would never invest in airlines or refiners (stand-alone refiners). If I were more rational in my investing strategy I would re-consider the latter (refiners) but I will continue to reinvest my CVX and XOM dividends into those same companies. They will be nice holdings for my granddaughters.
 *****************************

By the way, did anyone see this paragraph near the end of the story in the linked story above:
At the same time, imports from Middle East OPEC countries show no sign of falling.
With delivery times to the Gulf coast averaging 42 days, output cuts made before mid-March ought to be reflected by now in lower arrivals. It's as if the crude that's been extracted in the U.S. is just swapping places with that being extracted in the Middle East.
Now, go back and look at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2017/04/saudi-cutting-production-what-bunch-of.html.

Someone at Bloomberg must be reading the blog. But a respected news outlet like Bloomberg can't use the word crap.

Reality Bites: Major Snowstorm Forces Cancellation Of Climate March (In Late April) -- April 30, 2017

The screen shot:


The source: link.

The good 'ol days when there was at least some snow to be seen and before Al Gore invented color photography and the Internet:


The Eleven Most Under-Reported Stories In The US And The One Most Mis-Reported Story -- April 30, 2017

Pardon the interruption:


Source: link

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program, the eleven most under-reported stories in the US, and one mis-reported story.

The market: How incredibly well the equity market is doing; setting records never expected even as US GDP hits historic low. Imagine what the market might do if we actually see a GDP in excess of 3%. And especially if a 3% GDP is not forecast by the analysts.

NOKO missile crisis: The NOKO missile crisis -- very, very similar to JFK's Cuban missile crisis. If it ends well (however one defines "well" in this situation), the mainstream media will give no credit to Trump. If it ends badly, it could be the defining moment for the nascent Trump dynasty.

National Health Care: The thoughtfulness that "might" be going into reforming the "national healthcare system" -- a thoughtfulness that was not seen when ObamaCare was being written by lobbyists, socialists, and ideologues.

Energy: The incredible potential of the US energy sector: how US crude oil and natural gas (and their derivatives) are changing the global energy sector. If dynamic scoring is allowed when assessing future American budgets, US energy changes everything.

Energy: tectonic changes; the rise and fall of Saudi Arabia, 1950 - 2030.

Global warming: the changing narrative. More and more scientists coming around to the fact that "the science is not settled."

Failed experiment: homelessness, free needle exchange, and legalization of marijuana.

Islam: Divergent responses. Asia's understanding of the issue; America's "head in the sand" approach. We will see the results in 2100.

Future of Russia: Europe's opportunity to turn to the US for LNG; gain some independence from Russia.

Venezuela. This post was originally "the ten most under-reported stories" and then I remembered Venezuela.

Ornithology: American red-winged blackbird never before seen in Great Britain spotted in Orkney, about as far north in Europe one can get without being north of the Arctic Circle.

**********************
The Most Mis-Reported Story: The Trump Administration. 



LNG Liquefaction Projects -- Three "Models" -- RBN Energy -- April 30, 2017

RBN identifies three categories of existing and new LNG liquefaction facilities:
  • first-wave, tried-and-true: building and/or expanding at existing sites; current sites with multiple 4.5- to 5-MTPA trains
  • second-wave, smaller scale projects; some at greenfield sites; others at existing sites: multiple 1- to 2-MTPA trains to serve incremental needs of existing customers
  • third-wave: new, huge projects that would require huge infrastructure CAPEX, including perhaps hundreds of miles of new pipeline
*****************************
Global Warming Across The Nation This Weekend

Snow in Gillette, WY; Denver, CO; southern Minnesota; and now, Goodland, KS where the forecast is for "snow, the snow could be heavy at time. Total daytime snow could reach 7 - 11 inches (accumulation)."

Goodland, KS? On I-70 just inside Kansas, east of Denver. Pretty far south to be getting this kind of snow this time of year, I would suppose, but then I've never been to Goodland, as far as I know.

***************************
For Dyed-In-The-Wool Anglophiles

I don't know if you need a subscription to access this essay; I got to it easily without logging on (unless the site "remembered" "my computer"): a very queer family, indeed

This is a typical essay in London Review of Books: something I would never imagine reading, but when I did, I found it fascinating; a very long essay; and, about a very, very obscure subject.

First thoughts after reading the first half: Emily Dickinson; Little Women, Virginia Woolf; the Bront√ęs.

From the essay,
Arthur 'A.C." Benson became a housemaster at Eton, a fellow and then master of Magdalene College, Cambridge, ... edited Queen Victoria's letters ... wrote a series of reflective works on the nature of life and happiness that sold in the hundreds of thousands. He was twice incapacitated by severe depression, and only in those years broke off writing the diary he kept from the age of 35 until his death at 63. At more than four million words in 180 volumes, it is the longest known to be in existence.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Best Damn Fracking Company Goes Public -- April 29, 2017

Updates

May 1, 2017: CNBC spent a minute or so on this story.

Original Post 

Only in the oil and gas sector.

BDFC -- NYSE.

IPO: $16 - $19 / share.

Liberty Oilfield Services, Inc. Data points:
  • Denver-based
  • 22 million shares issued
  • best ticker symbol ever? Right up there with LUV and a few others.
From the link: "The company has helped to lead several trends in the Williston Basin."

Also at the link:
In addition to operations in the Bakken, Liberty has expanded within the past two years into other basins including the Permian, Eagle Ford and Niobrara.
During that time, Liberty also acquired the North American assets of a Canadian-based pressure pumping company and unveiled a unique quiet fleet technology offering that reduces noise emissions during hydraulic fracturing operations.
Recently, Liberty created and unveiled to its Williston Basin customers a trademarked Frac Trend View that allows users to view why operators have good wells in specific areas, what the best wells in a given area have in common and other unique frack-based information for a given shale play.
BDFC.

Best damn story of the day.

Prince Salman's U-Turn -- A Must-Read -- April 29, 2017

Link here over at The Economist. Archived. First thought: if an autocrat (dictator?) suddenly reverses course to pay his minions more at a time when his kingdom is in deep financial straits -- and with no good news on the horizon -- it only tells me that the emperor with no clothes realizes that, even at home, he is in deep doo-doo.

*************************
A Note For The Granddaughters

Your great-grandmother Ruth grew up in northwest Iowa, a state for which she still has fond memories.

I remember on numerous occasions while growing up in Williston she would talk about her closest childhood friend moving to Kansas City, Missouri. I never thought much about that at the time.

But it's funny how things happen. Decades later while touring the Grand Canyon I picked up a softcover copy of The Harvey Girls: Women Who Opened the West, by Lesley Poling-Kempes, c. 1989.

From page 116:
Newton and Dodge City may have challenged the Harvey system and its ability to bring gentility to a railroad community, but Kansas City, Kansas, was a made-to-order Harvey town. For many years, Kansas City was Harvey headquarters, with the offices of the Harvey brothers, and the head employment office, in the Union Station. The great Harvey dining room at the Union Station opened in 1914, and could seat an unprecedented 525 people. 
"The opening was a glorious occasion." Cora Winter recalled in a 1946 interview with the Kansas City Star."
So many dots to connect. So let's begin.

First, Hemingway and the Kansas City Star. 'Nuf said.

1914: WWI. Your great-great grandfather "Ekke (Ike)" Flessner was sent to France around 1918. He was invalided in France with pandemic flu. He most likely did not see combat action. He very likely could have taken a troop train through Kansas City on his way to wherever he trained before going overseas. I'm thinking of The Great Gatsby, of course.

"Putting 2 and 2 together" suggests to me that in the 1940s and 1950s, maybe earlier, Kansas City (Kansas / Missouri) was the center of the universe for young folks growing up in Iowa. And that's exactly where my mother grew up -- in Iowa. She did not have much when she was growing up on a farm in Iowa and she may have had even less when she married and moved to North Dakota. If I am correct that Kansas City was the center of the universe for young Iowans in the first half of the 20th century, then it was the center of her universe, and it adds a lot to the story of your great-great grandmother.

Emotionally things would have gotten worse for her when she was struggling in remote and desolate North Dakota and then reading that her best childhood friend, married to a wealthy car salesman, was moving to Kansas City to run a dealership there.

I write all that because we got a note today from an elderly couple (which only means that they are a few years older than we are) who, after thirteen years in San Antonio where we first met them, have moved to Kansas City, Missouri, to be closer to one of their daughters and their grandchildren.

Seeing their Kansas City, Missouri, address was all it took to remind me of my mom and a) how often she talked of Kansas City, Missouri; and, b) how much she gave up by marrying Dad and moving to North Dakota.

Cue in the violins.

Kansas City Star, Roger Miller

Why The Crude Oil Rally Fizzled -- Platts -- 3rd Of 3 Parts -- April 29, 2017

Part 3 of a 3-part article. First two articles also archived. The link will take you to Part 1 and Part 2, also.
Just Wednesday, Platts reported that China received a record 4.83 million b/d of crude from OPEC in March. While Saudi barrels were down, they were more than made up by barrels from Angola, Kuwait and Venezuela.
No matter how you slice it, today’s crude market is set up to quickly displace lost supply. And this dynamic will most likely hold up until the Brent/Dubai EFS and the WTI/Dubai spread unwind. Cheaper Dubai will be the key to that. And that will come about when OPEC countries again compete for market share.
A recent upturn in Persian Gulf-Asia VLCC rates suggest this may be in the cards sooner than some had expected.
Bottom line: the only thing that will raise crude oil prices significantly -- geopolitics -- a nice little war somewhere in the Mideast. Whether a skirmish on the Korean peninsula would raise oil prices was not discussed.

Flashback: New "Featured Post" At The Sidebar At The Right -- April 29, 2017

Link here. Originally posted back in 2014. From the original post with regard to a study of the Bakken back in 2014:
The most glaring short-coming (obviously one can say this in hindsight), KLJ did all their studies based on three price-points for oil: $70/bbl; $85/bbl; and, $100/bbl. In hindsight, they needed to take this to $50/bbl which is very possible for the next two to three years. (It is very possible but very unlikely.) $50-oil won't shut down the Bakken but it changes the economic picture and the impact on North Dakota dramatically. In fact, the impact with $50 oil might be greater than if oil goes to $150 for the next five years. The contractor was lucky to complete this study by September, 2014, before the plunge in oil prices. 
$50 oil -- "very possible but very unlikely" -- written just before Saudi opened the taps in 2014. Wow, was I wrong -- I did not see Saudi Arabia making a trillion-dollar mistake. But the thesis holds true: it would have been a lot more valuable to look at the impact of $50 oil vs $70 oil, let's say. Someone suggested looking only at the "high end." Hindsight is 20/20 -- no one saw $50 oil coming. I wonder if they will repeat the study looking at the impact of $30 oil and $40 oil.

Further Thoughts On The Pipeline Protests -- Follow The Money And The Amenities -- April 29, 2017

Earlier I posted this note:
No repeat of the DAPL (link at FuelFix): Trans-Pecos Pipeline ready; protest camp to close. See more of this story at this post
Through e-mail a reader and I have been discussing how the Texas Trans-Pecos Pipeline protest was different from that of the DAPL protest. One can imagine all the well-known reasons, most of which I have probably written about before. Regardless, the reader pointed these things out which is as good as anything as I've seen regarding the DAPL protest:
Another thought is that these Pecos folks weren't being paid or at least not as much.  There were many versions of a rumor that [name deleted] didn't want to lose all that Bakken rail business so was paying $150 a day to protestors largely recruited on the West Coast through Craigslist/Facebook ads.  That didn't seem to factor into Pecos.
Standing Rock Indian Reservation ran a propane truck to camp every day until late January - the "campers" were fed by tent kitchens that cooked on propane, and heated their yurts/yurtpees with propane.  Propane refills were free until the tribe voted to disband the camps.  If the Pecos campers didn't have the luxury of a casino where they could swarm the showers, recharge their cell phones, etc., living was more expensive and sparse.

Then there's the fact that Texas doesn't have a reservation, having dealt with the land's previous inhabitants differently.
Of course, unrelated, but I had completely forgotten about Texas and native American reservations (actually, I never thought about it) . Apparently there are three -- but they must be incredibly inconsequential -- reservations in Texas. 

It was well-known that the DAPL protestors were being paid: it appears they were given a "finder's fee" for initial expenses and then paid on an hourly basis based on "activity." I had forgotten (or did not know) about the amenities that the reservation and the casino would have provided.

One wonders how many "homeless" from Portland, OR, went to North Dakota to protest the DAPL. The "Portland homeless" would have been a perfect fit: many/some/most of the "homeless" in Portland live in tents. They would have felt at home on an Indian reservation. 

From what I can tell, the tents in Portland are becoming more and more high-end. If so, one starts to think about the marijuana story in Portland.

Wow, I'm getting off the subject.

As most folks know, there are now "hundreds" of "pot shops" in Portland, OR, now that the state has legalized marijuana. Apparently the "black market" is as vigorous as ever, maybe more so despite all these shops. It turns out that buyers must provide personal information before they can purchase marijuana legally, something some/many/most prefer not to do. 

The personal information requires one's name and an address. Think about that. If the Feds ever decide to crack down on this federally illegal activity -- anyway, I guess it's federally illegal -- they will have books and books with names and addresses. Mostly fictitious. Whatever.

It appears the "going-price" for marijuana at the "pot shops" is $30 for a quarter ounce (or maybe it was a half ounce, I forget). Something tells me, an entrepreneur can buy a pretty nice REI tent selling pot for that price.

Here it is: average price of Portland marijuana: $200/ounce. Or at this site, $12/gram = $360 / ounce. As far as I know there are no recycling fees on plastic bags unlike recycling fees for Coca-Cola's aluminum cans. I know politicians are trying to help us cut back on Coca-Cola due to it being so dangerous to our health. Whatever.

On a different note, there are so many "pot shops" in Portland it begs the question how so many were set up so fast. One rumor is that most "pot shops" had been "virtual," illegal, street, "pot distribution centers." True or not, I don't know, but it certainly makes sense. 

And folks are worried about fracking. LOL.

*********************************
America's First Homeless Person

This is pretty cool. In today's WSJ "Review Section," there is an essay on Henry David Thoreau who would be 200 years old this summer (July 12, 2017, to be exact). Expect a lot of HDT books to hit the bookstores this summer. The two mentioned in the WSJ essay are already available, and a third, a comprehensive biography by Laura Dassow Walls, will come out this summer. The two available now:
  • The Boatman, by Robert M Thorson; and,
  • Thoreau and the Language of Trees, by Richrd Higgins
During our four years in Boston, I visited Walden Pond often; it's interesting and a must-see, but it's not particularly awe-inspiring. It's a huge land-locked pond. Surrounded by trees.

Thoreau's bigger story was the Concord River on which he rowed many, many times, and many, many miles for many, many hours. I knew Thoreau kept a journal of his boating on the river but I did not know that his journal was kept for 24 years and goes on and on: two million words long.

The longest I ever kept one continuous journal was from June 9, 1968, to August 14, 1977. On 9 June 1968, I was a junior in High School, not yet 17. On 14 August 1977, I was celebrating my 26th birthday and looking forward to starting my career (and family), having graduated from graduate school just a few weeks earlier.

Then, the high point in the essay, at least for me. Well into the article, this paragraph:
In the early 1850s, Thoreau would accompany William Ellery Channing on what they called "riparian excursions," paddling the Musketaquid, a vessel compromised by the memory of a dead brother , up the Concord Rier, a channel compromised by modern industry, to woodlands, compromised by unprecedented deforestation. 
Had it not been for the blog, I probably would have skipped over the word "riparian." I know I would not have know a) its definition; or, b) its significance.

Wow, the blog has taught me a lot.

Resource Energy Adds More Bakken Acreage For Less Than $800 / Acre -- April 29, 2017

I always wondered what happened to Magnum Hunter. This article has the answer, from Oil and Gas Investor:
Resource Energy Can-Am LLC continues to build up its position in the Bakken Shale with its third acquisition in Divide County, N.D., the Denver-based company said April 26.
For $34.7 million cash, Resource Energy will acquire interests in producing wells and mineral acreage from Blue Ridge Mountain Inc., formerly known as Magnum Hunter Resources. The deal includes average production of more than 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and 3 MMboe of reserves.
Data points:
  • 167 wells
  • 45,000 net mineral acres
  • $35 million 
  • buyer: Resource Energy Can-Am LLC
  • seller: Blue Ridge Mountain Inc, formerly Magnum Hunter Resources
  • mostly in Divide County, it appears
  • back-of-the-envelope: less than $800 / acre
More from the article, again, which sheds light on a lot of players during the Bakken boom:
Since Resource Energy’s formation in 2015 with backing from Apollo Global Management LLC , the company has acquired Williston Basin assets from E&Ps hit by financial troubles, including chapter 11 bankruptcy.  Blue Ridge Mountain itself emerged from bankruptcy protection in May 2016.
In November, Resource Energy was the successful stalking horse bidder on Samson Resources Co.’s Bakken assets in North Dakota and Montana in a $75 million deal. A year earlier, Resource Energy purchased bankrupt American Eagle Energy Corp.’s Divide County assets for an undisclosed amount.
Pro forma for its recent acquisition, the company’s footprint in the Williston will include proven reserves of about 32 MMboe and interests in 385 wells.
The deal will also mark Blue Ridge Mountain’s full exit from the Bakken as the company plans to now focus on its core acreage in Appalachia, said John Reinhart, Blue Ridge Mountain’s president and CEO.
Obviously there is no comparison between the Permian and Divide County in the Bakken, but considering some are paying upwards of $40,000/acre in the Permian, Bakken acreage for less than $800/acre certainly seems incredible.

To extent possible, I track Bakken operators here

A Request From A Reader -- Hot Spots In North Dakota -- April 29, 2017

Suggestions from readers (to know what this is all about -- see original post).


Readers write:
One sight to see that immediately came to my mind, especially for one  driving through, is a short (30 miles or so) stretch of highway in south west North Dakota - the ENCHANTED HIGHWAY.
My goodness you left out Our Place Cafe Lanes and Lounge in Elgin, ND. You haven't experienced ND if you haven't bowled in a 4 lane alley.
Medora and the small road trip through TR Park, Heritage Center in Bismarck is revamped and very nice to see.
Original Post
 
A reader writes:
Little request, I have a friend who travels America looking at the various hot spots in each state.

He will be traveling through ND on his next leg.

Can you give me a top ten list of things you would recommend to see as someone is driving through.
The biggest problem, of course, is the sheer size of the state. If he/she is coming specifically to North Dakota for a week or two, the items on that list will be far different from a list for someone simply spending a few extra days crossing the state on a cross-country road trip.

I will open this up to readers who can comment anonymously (below) or by e-mail with their thoughts. I don't the eastern half of the state well enough, so I will limit most of the thoughts to the western half of the state, with some exceptions:

Coming from the east on I-94, Fargo is going to be the last huge metropolis one will find in North Dakota. "Hot or not," it might surprise someone from out of state how big this city has become.

Continuing on I-94, going west, crossing the Missouri River at Bismarck/Mandan will be a beautiful, beautiful sight.

At the far west end of I-94, one arrives at the south unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park which is probably the highlight for most folks driving across North Dakota.

That's the south side of the state, from east to west. Hopefully, your friend has time when he/she reaches the west end of I-94 in North Dakota to drive three to five hours north to the Bakken.

The activity has slowed down immensely so the excitement of 2007 - 2012 is no longer there. But prior to reaching the Bakken, one will enter the Badlands and the entrance to the north unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park, off US Highway 85, just south of Watford City.

If the timing is right, one of the best steak dinners can be had in the "bank restaurant" on Main Street in Watford City.  Even if one does not eat there, it is an interesting spot to stop just to see what oil money has brought to this part of the state.

Another 45 minutes north or so and one is in Williston, heart of the Bakken.

If really touring the area, watch for Fort Union and Fort Buford; if time for only one such excursion, Fort Union. Again, we're talking a lot of cross-country driving, even after one arrives in Nroth Dakota.

It's a long scenic drive from Williston to Four Bears Casino, well east of Williston, but the view across the Missouri when one gets there is spectacular.

My best advice: the North Dakota Tourism website.

I'll build on this post over the next few days as thoughts come to mind / readers respond.

Traveling across North Dakota, I would stop at coffee shops or restaurants off the beaten path, outside the "big cities." The wait staff: almost always very, very friendly and once they learn you are from out of state and curious about North Dakota, they might surprise you with their thoughts. "Original North Dakotans" are generally northern European -- German/Scandinavian -- and a bit reserved. After all they've been through the past few years, they may also be a bit skeptical of newcomers and circumspect in their comments.

In Williston, of course, Books on Broadway.

ISO New England Talking About Summetime Blues (Again) -- April 29, 2017; It's Not An Energy Problem; It's A Political Problem

One will need a password or "library access" to reach this article, but it's the second article I've seen in the past week or so suggesting that ISO New England may face tight "margins" this summer.

Another update is here, from masslive.

Even if there is enough electricity, it's going to be costly.

Until I started the blog I had really not watched New England, but it turns out that tight electricity is not something particularly new for that region.

A quick search reveals:
  • June 2, 2006: summer heat may lead to blackouts -- Lowell Sun Online
  • February 28, 2014: capacity shortfall spells trouble in New England -- Energy Professionals
  • June 22, 2014: rolling blackouts are on the table to address electricity shortfall -- Boston Bizjournal
  • If there are energy shortfalls in New England this summer, it does not mean we have an energy problem; we have a political problem
Let's see, this has been going on at least for the past ten years. It looks like ISO New England has no cure for the summertime blues. 

Summertime Blues, Eddie Cochran

********************** 
Meanwhile, Another Foot Of Snow In Late April 
For Denver, CO

All that global warming

Has The Red Queen Fallen Off Treadmill In The Marcellus? -- April 29, 2017

Updates

Later, 12:45 p.m. Central Time: by the way, did anyone spot this paragraph at the very end of the linked article in the original post:
After drilling 27 gas wells in North Louisiana in the first quarter, Range Resourcdes Corp shut in some production to avoid “frac hits,” or damage that can occur to an older shale well located next to a newer one. [See tag: fracking_halo_effect]
Later, 11:33 a.m. Central Time: see first comment from a reader who really follows the Marcellus closely --
Bizarre article on so many accounts.
The productivity of Marcellus wells this past 12 months has been astonishing.
Range just completed 4 wells on a pad and could only turn 2 of them online as their output - 31 MMcfd - was so high that there was no capacity on the pipeline for the remaining 2. (31 MMcf of high Btu gas is equivalent to about 6,000 barrels of oil).
Cabot's CEO spent a lot of time on the conference call the other day discussing plans for the anticipated quarter billion dollar a year free cash flow which has already begun.
Enno Peters' great site, shaleprofile.com, enables one to observe the incredible productivity of Marcellus wells.

Two big pipelines which are being built, the Rover and Leach Xpress, will be in service in a few months.
The combined capacity of almost 5 Bcf - slightly below Haynesville's TOTAL daily output - will allow Appalachian Basin output to skyrocket by year's end.
This area has not even begun to show its potential.
Original Post

A most interesting article.
Producers have to drill at a breakneck pace just to keep output stable -- a phenomenon known as the Red Queen, after the character in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass” who tells Alice, “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.” While the number of gas rigs has climbed 90 percent over the past year, output of the fuel in the lower-48 states is down 1.1 percent, data from Bloomberg and Baker Hughes Inc. show.

Rigzone Has An Update On US Gasoline Demand -- US Refiners At Seasonal High Right; Imports Higher Than Normal; Damand Down -- April 29, 2017

Link here.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Reserves Dropped Another $5.4 Billion In March -- April 29, 2017

Link here.

Saudi Arabia's foreign cash reserves are now at their lowest since mid-2011 (pre-US shale boom). 

Weekend In Portland, Oregon -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Saturday, April 29, 2017

Robert M  Pirsig
1928 - 2017

From The Wall Street Journal:
Robert M. Pirsig, whose novel “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” came out in 1974, for a time declined to be more specific about his address than “somewhere in New England.” Yet he surfaced now and then long enough to lament the world’s failure to take his philosophy more seriously.  His second and final novel, “Lila,” published in 1991, was an elaboration of the ideas presented more breezily in the first.

Mr. Pirsig’s philosophy, which he called the Metaphysics of Quality, offered “shortcuts to living right” and sought to topple barriers between art and science. Academic philosophers, he complained in a 2006 interview with the Times of London, reacted with “zero support and great hostility.” He added, “I think this philosophy could address a lot of the problems we have in the world today. Just so long as people know about it.”
Mr. Pirsig died April 24 at his home in South Berwick, Maine. He was 88.
 ******************************
Portland, OR

How coincidental. I just got back from a week in Portland, Oregon. I see The WSJ has an article on a four-day weekend in Portland. At this link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-freewheeling-long-weekend-in-portland-ore-1493303897.

I assume a subscription is needed. Try googling something from the lede:
BEFORE PORTLAND, ORE., established itself as a hipster utopia and beleaguered punch line—a land of vegan tattoos, fastidious food-truck chefs and all things crafty and pickled—visitors were already taken with its abundant natural attributes. The Willamette River divides the city, forest trails wind throughout it, and Mount Hood and the coast each sit just over an hour’s drive away. A cleverly planned long weekend in Portland will tap both aspects: sampling urban obsessiveness and the abundant verdure of the Pacific Northwest. 
It is interesting. During my week to one of the craft brewery capitals in the US, I had two beers. One of them was an Ecliptic. That craft brewery was mentioned prominently in The WSJ article. If I had to recommend one place in Portland to eat where one had 90+ craft brews to choose from it would be Old Chicago Pizza and Taproom. I assume there are two or three in the city.

I told my brother-in-law that I would return next summer and stay until I had tasted one craft beer/day at Old Chicago. With 90+ beers I would be in Portland for the entire summer. He said that was fine.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Week 17: April 23, 2017 -- April 29, 2017

It's been a week of meager daily activity reports coming out of the Bakken: very few new permits; almost no reports of any DUCs being completed; most new wells going to DUC status. Meanwhile, WTI reversed direction, began trending down, and came close to trading under $48, finally settling at just over $49 for the week. Saudi Arabia is "talking their book" in preparation for its IPO arguing that the demand for oil will grow for decades. Whatever.

Top story of the month?
First shipment of Bakken oil heads for Asia

Operations
Operator considers expanding capacity on natural gas pipeline out of Tioga/Prairie Rose 
Tracing recent history of active rigs in North Dakota
Random update of a CLR Antelope well in Elm Tree oil field
Random update of an incredible SHD well in Deep Water Creek Bay
Random update of CLR's Anna wells
Report of seven producing wells (DUCs) completed
Filloon's update of Whiting in the Bakken

Bakken economy
Managers for new Williston airport selected
Watford City latest to join craft brewery business
North Dakota wheat being loaded unto Incheon Bay
Bank of North Dakota, human interest

Eleven New Permits; No Completed DUCs; Pretty Meager -- April 28, 2017

Active rigs:


4/28/201704/28/201604/28/201504/28/201404/28/2013
Active Rigs492986185187

Three new permits:
  • Operators: Triangle (2), Hess
  • Fields: Squires (Williams); Ellsworth (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Eleven (11) permits renewed:
  • Whiting (4): three Two Shields permits in Dunn County; one Kessel permit in Stark County
  • HRC (3): three Fort Berthold permits in Dunn County
  • WPX (2): two Grizzly permits in McKenzie County
  • Oasis: one Spratley permit in Mountrail County
  • Fram Operating: one Danny Funke permit in Renville County

Pretty Good, Huh! -- April 28, 2017 -- Can't Wait To See The Second 100 Days


Saudi Cutting Production? What A Bunch Of Crap -- April 28, 2017

Updates

May 29, 2017: see update here. Peak Saudi exports in April, 2017.

Original Post 

The most recent numbers have just been posted for Saudi Arabia US crude oil imports:


Look at the amount imported in February, 2017: 1.338 million bbls. That is the second highest amount since April, 2014. The only higher amount was last month by 6,000 bbls.

Most recent February: imports exceeded the average for February for the past 17 years: 1.282 million bbls.

Since production cuts were announced in Oct/Nov, 2016, Saudi Arabian crude oil has increased 33%, from 1,000,000 bbls in November to 1,338,000 bbls in February, 2017.

If you look across the chart in general, the amount imported in February, 2017, was at the high end of all the monthly import data .

And then folks wonder why WTI is trending below $50.

Managers For New Williston Airport Selected -- April 28, 2017

Link here.
City commissioners unanimously approved a recommendation by City Administrator David Tuan to work with Fargo-based Ulteig and AE2S, which is headquartered in Grand Forks, during the board’s regular meeting this week. 
The two companies, both of which have offices in Williston, submitted a joint proposal outlining a plan to take on the role of project manager, which will include oversight and cooperation with engineers, tribal representatives, contractors and utility companies, among others, Tuan said. 
A committee that included Tuan, newly-appointed airport director Anthony Dudas and other city officials received four proposals from companies around the country, including one from KLJ Engineering, which had previously been serving as project manager.
*****************************
The Apple Page

Apple component manufacturer Foxconn and Apple say the manufacturer will be making a multibillion dollar investment in the US, as much as $7 billion. Great PR move. The manufacturer must like the lifestyle and cheap, dependable electricity. Tim Cook must have gotten tired of all that trans-Pacific flying.

It's Not How You Start The Race, It's How You Finish The Race, T+97 -- April 28, 2017

With all this focus on his first 100 days, one needs to compare:
  • how much President Trump has accomplished (whether you agree with him or not) in his first 98 days; and, 
  • how much President Obama accomplished in his eight years (only one I can think of and that one is dying on the vine)
With a stretch, one can think of a number of things President Obama accomplished in his eight years but most of those "things" have been undone in the first 100 days of the new administration, to wit President Trump's newest executive order "opening up the Arctic and offshore oceans" to scientific study and exploration.

The real questions today:
  • how much did previous administrations accomplish in four years (Carter) or eight years (Obama)?
  • how much did President Trump accomplish in 100 days?
  • what would President Hillary and VP Bill have accomplished in their first 100 days (I shudder to think)?
  • is President Trump keeping his campaign promises? 
  • is President Trump's focus on making America great or making other countries great at America's expense?
  • is America getting back on track or not?
Those are rhetorical questions; please don't respond. We all have our political differences.

************************
Hillary Vs Tillerson When Cutting Department Staff

Tillerson says he will cut the State Department by 9%. I haven't read the stories. I assume it will mostly be by attrition through retirement which seems a lot more humane than the Hillary method: attrition through the Benghazi method. 

Sort Of Looks Like The Keystone XL Route, Doesn't It? -- April 28, 2017 -- President Obama -- What Were You Thinking?

By the way, I see that Time, Inc, shares this morning are down almost 20%. Wow.

But back to the graphic featuring Tioga and Prairie Rose, North Dakota:


For more on this pipeline, see this post from September 17, 2013. From that post:
Related headlines:
More takeaway capacity for North Dakota natural gas identified.

The Prairie Rose Pipeline, owned by Aux Sable, Calgary, with origins in Burke and Mountrail County, will feed natural gas from these two counties into the Alliance Pipeline, owned by Summit Midstream Partners; this pipeline is 2,300 miles long and runs from western Canada to the Chicago hub.

Capacity:
  • Current agreement: 17 million cubic feet/day
  • New agreement: 25 million cubic feet/day
 That's almost a 50% increase in one pipeline system.

Texas In Hyperdrive -- Focus On Corpus Christi -- April 28, 2017

A pdf will download: http://www.morningstarcommodity.com/Research/corpus-christi-new-permian-window-on-the-world-FINAL.pdf

Two More US-LNG-Export Stories -- April 28, 2017; Look At the Number Of Jobs One LNG Export Facility Will Generate -- President Obama, What Were You Thinking?

This past week has been an incredible week for LNG and the US and exports. Here are two more stories sent to me by a reader:

Cheniere ships LNG to Poland as Europe seeks less reliance on Russian gas. From FuelFix. Data points:
  • will be first shale gas to a member of the former Soviet bloc
  • Europe seeks to cut its dependence on fuel from Russia
  • this is the first such contract for Central and Eastern Europe
  • no LNG has been shipped to northern Europe since Sabine Pass started exports more than a year ago
  • Poland may offer a new outlet for Cheniere
For those with a long memory, Poland put too many obstacles in the way for E&P operators to explore for shale gas in their own country (I believe it was ExxonMobil that inally gave up trying; this was not that many years ago; within the lifetime of the blog).

By the way, where is Sabine Pass shipping US LNG? Glad you asked. From that link from Bloomberg:


Second story: Golden Pass LNG cleared to export, also at FuelFix. Data points:
  • DOE approved
  • up to 2.21 billion cubic feet of gas per day
  • located outside Sabine Pass, was originally built to import LNG from abroad in 2009
  • following the Bakken boom (memo to Jane Nielson), a joint venture between Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips shifted gears
  • the number of export facilities continues to grow; now there are seven under construction; another four that have been approved but not yet begun
  • US SecEnergy Rick Perry gives the credit to President Trump
  • Golden Pass not yet completed
  • will provide 45,000 direct and indirect jobs over five years; another 3,800 direct and indirect jobs over the next 25 years  
Meanwhile, no new jobs under President Obama, but now he's giving speeches that fetch him $400,000. To date: one. Another one scheduled. Even Pocahontas expressed concern.

Idle Chatter -- April 28, 2017

It's funny the things that bug me. Yesterday a reader sent me this story which I posted: Saudi Aramco CEO says peak oil demand is a misleading theory. Bloomberg gave a lot of space to this story. The nut of the story: the IEA says oil demand will peak in 2030; the Saudi Aramco CEO says oil demand will continue to grow through 2050. Sometimes it seems I have to be hit over the head with a "2 x 4" to figure this out.

This is not rocket science.

Think about it. The Saudi Aramco CEO is getting ready to go public with his company. Would he launch his IPO telling potential investors that the company will stop growing by 2030 according to IEA as demand for our product goes away? LOL. He is simply "talking his book" when he tells us that demand for his product will continue to grow through 2050.

In hindsight, it's amazing Bloomberg posted such a long article on such a simple story. No one knows how long the demand for crude oil will last, but should it be surprising that Saudi Arabia says demand will continue to grow for decades?

By the way, I think Saudi Arabia is a voice in the wilderness, suggesting that oil demand will continue to grow for decades.

**********************************
US Exports Of LNG and Crude Oil

This past week has been incredible: all the stories coming out about US exports of LNG and crude oil. If I get a chance, I will bring these posts together in one spot.

There are two huge stories that will be interesting to watch:
one, Asia, it appears, seems to prefer light oil; US still prefers heavy oil
second, US LNG exports to Europe has to be scaring Russia
This all takes me back to "The Big Story" -- linked at the sidebar at the right -- a post that was first posted about the time the Bakken boom began. At that link, several big stories:
  • US energy revolution
  • US energy centers of gravity
  • natural gas and coal in the post-nuclear world
  • Russia: losing dominance in Europe -- wow, that was first posted a year ago, February 26, 2016

The Marcellus / Utica -- Now, It's All About REX -- April 28, 2017

Active rigs:


4/28/201704/28/201604/28/201504/28/201404/28/2013
Active Rigs482986185187

RBN Energy: is the northeast natural gas market no longer pipeline capacity constrained?
The difference this year is this:  while the regional balance is more bearish than last year, there also is more pipeline capacity available—such as REX’s incremental 0.8 Bcf/d added in December 2016—to send gas away, which has helped relieve constraint-driven pricing at some hubs.
Additionally, when REX’s 0.8 Bcf/d began service, it didn’t have the effect on production that previous expansions had. Instead of garnering new production, flow data indicated that it primarily “stole” existing production from other pipes, presumably leaving capacity open elsewhere.
This may signal the beginning of the next phase of the Northeast’s transformation into a U.S. supplier of gas—the unconstrained phase. There is more takeaway capacity due later this year and more capacity to serve regional demand as well, with Williams’s Dalton Expansion online and the Cove Point LNG export facility due to begin operations later this year. That said, rig counts are on the rise again as well after bottoming out last fall. Baker Hughes rig count data show the rig count in the Marcellus is 45 rigs, up from a low of 21 in mid-August 2016, while rigs in the Utica have more than doubled from 10 a year ago to 23 now.
While we have yet to see an uptick in Northeast production this year, it seems only a matter of time before production follows.
Scott Adams: how to know whether you are a real person or a simulation.

The Energy And Market Page, T+97 -- April 28, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This helps me put the Bakken into perspective.

Wow, wow, wow: GDP at 0.7%. Expectations as low as 0.5% so this is not as bad as it could have been. We're okay. Market with no reaction. Dow 30 futures suggest an opening of up about 15 points. Folks are already looking at 3% GDP for the second quarter. The "Street" doesn't care about the 1Q GDP -- it's always low.

OMG: Atheanhealth is down almost 20% in pre-market trading.

Boom. From FuelFix, shale investments in the US have surged $100 billion. No signs that things will slow down. Three plays in the US are getting the bulk of this $100 billion: the Permian; the Bakken (four counties in North Dakota); and, the Eagle Ford.

Boom. GM knocks it out of the park. Easily beats estimates. Shares up 1.5% in pre-market trading. EPS $1.70 vs $1.48 forecast. Also beat on revenues. Tops estimates for 8th straight quarter.

Surprise: ExxonMobil EPS 95 cents vs 86 cents forecast; missed on revenues and took loss on upstream. But the bean counters managed to surprise analysts at the end of the day: earnings per share. The guys working in the back room deserve a huge raise in pay. Good for them.

No repeat of the DAPL (link at FuelFix): Trans-Pecos Pipeline ready; protest camp to close. See more of this story at this post

Apple wins: Qualcomm says it will no longer get any royalty payments from Apple for iPhone technology. Complicated story. But Qualcomm's announcement seems pretty straightforward.

Headlines from Rigzone today:
  • OPEC wants further drop in oil stocks; is working for consensus
  • OPEC ministers to meet Russia amid push to extend cuts
  • France's Total approves first major project since 2014 as profits surge
  • OPEC wants US to join production cut deal; dream on, OPEC -- the US will never act like a cartel
  • France's Total will invest $500  million to produce shale gas in Argentina
  • world's two biggest shipbuilders signal more orders as earnings improve

****************************
PJM And Wind

Link here at Bloomberg: story developing. We will know more next month after PJM's capacity auction.

When the story comes out next week, the story will be 23 paragraphs long with a huge headline that "wind wins again."

One will have to get to the 21st paragraph to read the following:
Payments from capacity auctions are sought after by owners of nuclear and natural-gas fired plants and other resources in an era of lower power prices. Bidders have to ensure they can supply energy at any time of the year or risk paying hefty penalties under a rule designed to head off a repeat of the 2014 polar vortex, when a cold snap led to fuel shortages, forcing some plants to shut.  
In last year’s auction, the amount of wind resources selected rose to 969 megawatts from 857 megawatts, according to PJM. That represents just 13 percent of the total wind capacity available on the grid, and 0.6 percent of the total purchased at the auction.
While its role in the capacity market has been limited, wind has been playing a bigger one in the spot market. Its capacity on the grid jumped to 7,655 megawatts last year and has more than doubled in the past seven years, data from the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based grid operator show.
0.6 percent the total energy purchased at the auction. Wow.

And the writer fails to say how much that trivial amount is costing its customers.

Let's see if Bloomberg provides the percent that wind energy adds to overall energy purchased at next month's auction. My hunch: we won't see it.

The Politcal Page, T+97 -- April 29, 2017

What goes around, comes around: Bernie Sanders in cross hairs of FBI. Reason? Failed college. Sounds like the Trump story.

Texas pipeline protest leader (link at FuelFix):
Gutierrez, 56, has a long criminal history, according to the California Department of Corrections. In 1984, he was sentenced to nine years for forcible rape, seven years for forcible oral sex and three years for possession of a controlled substance with an intent to sell, the California Department of Corrections said. He served the sentences concurrently and got out of prison about six years later, released on parole.
Between 1990 and 1997, he was reimprisoned at least five times for parole violations, according to corrections records, and in 1998, was convicted of having sex with a minor under 18. He went back to jail, but gained parole again in April of 2002. The California Department of Corrections never heard from him again.
The Texas Rangers got him:


The Kennedy Klan is probably on its way out to Gillette, WY: 9 inches of snow over night.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Marathon Petroleum Crushes Earnings Forecast -- Zachs -- April 27, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This helps me put the Bakken into perspective.

Link here.

Zachs forecast a lost of one cent / share. In fact, Marathon Petroleum EPS came in at 6 cents per share. Wow.

Revenues: $16,393 million missing Zachs estimate of $19,030.9 million. However, revenues rose 28% on a year-over-year basis.

Makes me eager to see how XOM, CVX, and COP fared.

Nothing About The Bakken; Nothing About Energy -- April 27, 2017

The Amazon Page

Source: AEI
Amazon Prime 
Yahoo!Finance posted this story a few hours before Amazon announced quarterly earnings: why it doesn't matter that Amazon's most popular service costs it billions. Data points:
  • most popular service: Amazon Prime
  • 80 million users (apparently US users)
  • up 38% from a year ago
  • if accurate, that suggests that nearly two-thirds of American households have Prime subscriptions
  • (wow, wouldn't the political parties love to have those address lists; maybe they do)
  • Prime members spend an average of $1,300 annually; vs $700 for typical non-Prime member
  • much, much more than just fast delivery
More at the link.

Amazon Earnings

Amazon extends growth streak, unfazed by lavish spending -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • unbroken 20-year streak of double-digit revenue growth
  • no signs of slowing this year
  • topped profit and revenue estimates in 1Q17
  • projected sales that may beat projections in the current period
  • shares surged as much as 5% in extending trading
  • closed during the regular session at a record $918.76; has jumped 23% this year
Bezos is just $5 billion away from being the world's richest person -- Bloomberg.
would surpass Bill Gates, the world's #1 billionaire since May, 2013

Google Earnings

Smash estimates -- CNBC.
  • EPS: $7.73 vs $7.39 forecast
  • revenue: $24.75 billion vs $24.22 billion forecast
Microsoft Earnings

Missed.

Global Warming

Not just droughts, but all extreme weather is at declining, at, or near record lows. And it all happened within the first 100 days of President Trump's presidency.

US drought in the US fell to a record low this week -- USA Today. Happened on President Trump's watch -- in his first 100 days. Only 6.1% of the lower 48 states is currently experiencing dry enough conditions to be called a drought. This is the lowest percentage in the 17-year history of the weekly US Drought Monitor report. The previous record low occurred in July, 2010, when 7.7% of the continuous US was not in drought. Hmmm, that's funny. President Obama did not mention that (as far
as I recall).

*************************
Socialists' Math

From story regarding FBI investigation of failed college in New Hampshire:
Jane Sanders, wife of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., overstated donation amounts in a bank application for a $6.7 million loan the college used to purchase a prime 33-acre property on Lake Champlain in 2010.
She told People’s United Bank in 2010 that the college had $2.6 million in pledged donations to support the purchase of the former Roman Catholic Diocese of Burlington property.
The college, however, received only $676,000 in actual donations from 2010 through 2014, according to figures provided by Burlington College.
I could care less, but look how far down in that very, very long story for Bernie Sanders name to show up. Had this been a story on Flynn's wife, let's say, completely unrelated to the POTUS, one can bet Trump's name would have been in the first paragraph.

It will be interesting to see where the FBI investigation leads. Something tells me the US Attorney General wants no brick left unturned in this one.