Tuesday, March 7, 2017

EIA's Short Term Outlook Posted; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? King Coal Is Not Dead -- March 7, 2017

Oil Markets:

U.S. crude oil production is now expected to reach an all-time high in 2018, reflecting an increased forecast of domestic oil production growth.

Domestic oil output is expected increase to an average of 9.7 million barrels per day next year led by increased drilling in the Permian shale region of Texas and New Mexico and from rising production in the Gulf of Mexico, breaking the U.S. total annual production record set back in 1970.

Rising crude oil production from non-OPEC countries, especially from the United States, is expected to curb upward pressure on oil prices for much of 2017.

Crude oil prices are expected to remain stable over the coming months as the global oil market is forecast to be largely in balance during 2017. [Comment: if accurate, this is really, really bad news for Saudi Arabia. They won't even see $60 oil based on this, unless, of course, the EIA is suggesting that prices "melting" up to $75 in an orderly fashion is evidence of "stability. If we are already in balance globally -- or soon to be -- it sure didn't take much; there are reports out there today that there is/was only about a 60% compliance vs the nearly 100% compliance Saudi Arabia is suggesting.]

Gasoline/Refined Products:

High gasoline inventories put downward pressure on fuel prices at the pump during February, but the average gasoline price is expected to slowly climb and reach a monthly average of $2.51 a gallon in July as the summer driving season increases demand for gasoline and more-expensive summer-grade fuel blends are required. [Comment: will the US set an all-time gasoline demand record this summer despite the stricter CAFE standards and the EVs?]

Natural Gas:

This winter’s warm weather is cutting into U.S. natural gas demand, with natural gas consumption during February expected to be the lowest for the month in eight years.

Lower natural gas demand and above-average gas inventories are putting downward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices, as the average spot price for natural gas is now revised down 12% for 2017.


While U.S. total electricity generation is expected to decline almost 1% this year, the share of coal-fired generation is forecast to increase. [Comment: not just the amount, but the actual share will increase; and I thought it was all about solar / wind energy.]


After declining for two years in a row, U.S. coal production is set to increase 4% during 2017 due in part to growth in coal-fired electricity generation.


Solar power is expected to be the largest growing renewable energy source, with total U.S. electricity generation capacity from solar more than doubling from the end of 2015 to the end of next year. [Comment: doubling 0% is still 0%.]

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