Friday, March 31, 2017

WPX's Peterson Wells, Van Hook Oil Field, Now Completed -- March 31, 2017

The wells:
  • 31174, 1,027, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HZL, Van Hook, Three Forks, 61 stages, 25,570 feet TD; 14-foot seam; , lateral began on December 25, 2015; and TD reached January 3, 2016; low gas, with a peak of 569 units; t8/16; cum 120K 2/17
  • 31173, 829, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HD, Van Hook, middle Bakken, 59 stages, , t8/16; cum 93K 2/17;
  • 31172, 1,763, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HQ, Van Hook, Three Forks, 61 stages, t10/16; cum 97K 2/17; 
  • 31171, 1,657, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4- HC, Van Hook, middle Bakken, 61 stages, t8/16; cum 96K 2/17;

Whiting: Comparing Redtail Niobara With The Bakken -- Seeking Alpha -- March 31, 2017

Link here.

Archived.

A reader sent me the link (a huge "thank you"). A quick e-mail reply after quickly reading the article:
These analysts really do a great job trying to sort this stuff out. Even with all the time I've spent on the Bakken, I've never been able to figure out the investment side.

I'll have to read this article several times -- it seems to be one of the better ones -- to really understand it.

I'm always "humbled" when I see an article like this -- there is just so much to cover, so much to learn.

It's interesting how big an effect the DAPL might have on these companies.

If the DAPL really does make that big a difference in the Bakken (profitability and production), everyone in ND should be even more upset how long it took to get this "relatively" simple project completed.

Week 13: March 26, 2017 -- April 1, 2017

It was a fairly quiet week in the big scheme of things. The price of oil trended down early in the week but by Friday was back up to $50.

Now that oil is "under the river" in the DAPL pipeline (whether it is flowing is another story), the company is no longer required to provide weekly updates to the court. If everything goes smoothly we won't hear much about the daily flow, but hopefully we will get updates in the NDIC Director's monthly "Director's Cut."

There were a lot of posts about Slawson and the number of wells it will drill in 640-acre and 1280-acre spacing units. Every year, in my annual top stories of the year, I name the Bakken operator that I found "most interesting" for the year. Right now, Slawson is easily winning in that category.

At the national level, economically, things look quite exciting, but that is not yet reflected in objective data, like project GDP growth.

National, miscellaneous
Consumer confidence, strongest level measured in decades
US energy production falls for first time since 2009

Operations
Whiting reports another great Rolla Federal well
Oasis: 90 wells in small area in northeast McKenzie County
Oasis to drill as many as 30 wells in one 640-acre unit 
Oasis: another 18 wells in a drilling unit with seven long laterals
EOR pilot, Madison pool, Samson Oil and Gas
Hess transfers nine (9) wells in Divide County to Crescent Point
Random update of an area of interest in Charbonneau oil field
Skarston wells off-line again; no explanation

Pipelines
Oil in DAPL pipeline segment that is under the lake/river
ND active rig count jumps 40% after President Trump approves DAPL 

Fracking
Production jumps 13-fold in an old BR well in North Fork oil field 
Two Haystack Butte wells with interesting production profiles 
Is the Elidah oil field telling us something?
Two Petro-Hunt Charlson oil field wells finally completely; 50 stages but only 5 million lbs each

DUCs
EOG reports eight (8) completed DUCs -- all unremarkable 

Bakken economy
Contractor named for new Williston airport

Commentary
Connecting the dots: Keystone, Canadian oil sands, heavy oil, light oil 
Why Midwest refiners chose to pass up local Bakken bounty

 

Seventeen Permits Renewed -- March 31, 2017

Active rigs:


3/31/201703/31/201603/31/201503/31/201403/31/2013
Active Rigs503099194188

Four (4) new permits:
  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Seventeen (17) permits renewed:
  • CLR (13): thirteen Jersey and Jersey Federal permits in Mountrail County
  • BR (3): two Gudmunson and one Gudcadia permit, in McKenzie County
  • Petro-Hunt: one Clark Griswold Federal permit in McKenzie County
Three (3) permits canceled:
One well recompleted:
  • 19947, Trendwell Energy, Matter State 3-17H, 

North Dakota 2016 Taxable Sales And Purchases

North Dakota 2016 Taxable Sales and Purchases.

Update On Oasis Case #25524 -- 90 Wells In Small Area In Northeast McKenzie County -- March 31, 2017

NDIC hearing dockets, case #25524, from the January, 2017, hearing dockets.
  • Field: Dimmick Lake, Siverston, and/or Johnson Corner-Bakken
  • County: McKenzie
  • Oasis, i) 3 wells on each of six overlapping 2560-acre units (see graphic): A, B, C, D, E, F; note that (A) has been withdrawn (a request for 3 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit)
  • Oasis, ii) 18 wells on each of four 1280-acre units (see graphic (G, H, I, J)
The graphic (the text is placed in the center of the drilling units):
  • A (withdrawn), B, C, D, E, F: overlapping 2560-acre units (4 sections, all units are 2x2)
  • G, H, I, J:  1280-acre units (all stand-up units)


Worth 10,000 Words -- Note The 18-Well Pad In The Background -- March 31, 2017

A big "thank you" to the reader for alerting me to this link at Reuters.


All in one screenshot:
  • 18-well pad
  • pipeline
  • Trump
  • controversial
  • $540 million saved annually in shipping costs
The photo is not as good as a Vern Whitten photograph but it will do for now.

So, we now have these memes:
  • highly explosive Bakken oil
  • highly inflammable Bakken oil
  • DAPL - controversial pipeline
And, no doubt, more to come. 

Consumer Confidence -- March 31, 2017

From Yahoo!News, data points, regarding US consumer confidence,
  • booming
  • final reading for March, 2017: 96.9
  • better than February's reading of 96.3
  • near the strongest level measured in decades
  • validates The Conference Board (three days ago) had consumer confidence at best level since 2000
Comments:
  • seems to be at odds of mainstream polling showing Trump approval at 36%;
  • underscores just how far off-the-rails Joe Biden's administration had taken us; and, 
  • suggests the 2009 - 2016 administration was an anomaly in modern US history

Worth Repeating: The Katie Ledecky Page -- Previously Posted -- March 31, 2017

The Katie Ledecky Page

Katie Ledecky named PAC-12 newcomer of the year

Stanford wins its first national swimming and diving title in 19 years.
One year after the heartbreaking loss Stanford suffered to Georgia, The Cardinal have made it back to the top for the ninth time in their school history in their first NCAA Swimming and Diving Championship since 1998.
It was a dominate victory by Stanford who pretty much had it wrapped up by the end of day 3.
It was a special final race to end the night in the 400 free relay as Stanford’s Lia Neal, also an Olympian, would swim the anchor leg in her last race as a Cardinal.
Before the race, head coach Greg Meehan told the other swimmers on the relay, Simone Manuel, Katie Ledecky and Janet Hu, to go out and win this for Lia. They stood on the blocks, went out fast and never looked back. By the time Lia’s final lap came, all she had to do was bring them home.
Stanford ended up setting a new American and NCAA record with a time of 3:07.61, breaking the previous record they had set back at Pac-12s by 0.9 seconds. It was a storybook ending for Lia Neal and the Stanford Cardinal’s unforgettable season.
There's a nice video at the link -- the 400 Free Relay -- Ledecky had the third leg, and had a slight, very slight lead as she dived (dove?) in; she lengthened the Stanford lead by about a full body length, ensuring that Stanford would win. Stanford, 1st; then Georgia, and then USC.

And somewhat older news (previously reported): Ledeckky wins the 1650 free with second fastest time in history. Again, a nice video but it's almost 20 minutes long. The question was whether she could be the first woman to come in under 15 minutes. Not this time. A little over 15 minutes, 3 second.

But the big story was how much Stanford dominated this year (remember, they had not won the national championship in almost 20 years):
  • Stanford: 526.5 points
  • California: 366 points
  • Texas A&M: 292.5 points
  • Georgia: 252.5 points
  • Texas: 252 points

US Energy Production Falls For First Time Since 2009 -- The Market And Energy Page, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

US energy production falls year-over-year for first time since 2009.
U.S. primary energy production totaled 84.1 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2016, falling 4% from the 2015 level, the first annual decline in U.S. energy production since 2009. The decline in production coincided with an increase in both total energy imports and exports. --- EIA  
Fracking 2.0. That's what The Wall Street Journal is calling it. Today a nice article on EOG.

Memo to self: send note to Jane Nielson. Previously posted, and posted often:
This still remains one of my favorite posts. Jane Nielson says:
Frequent Internet users are getting emails about the Bakken Formation in North Dakota and Montana, supposedly a great oil bonanza just waiting to be tapped if only nasty enviros would let it happen. The emails and websites say that Bakken would solve all our petroleum “needs.” (What, me worry about  global warming?)
Don’t believe it. There’s some oil to be gotten out of Bakken, and it’s going to be exploited. But the “bonanza” is nothing but hype.
Then cite these two posts following the NDIC April, 2017, hearing dockets:
Apple: another record high? I think so. 

The Jobs Report, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:18 a.m. Central Time: the wages and spending report was not particularly noteworthy, but first reading suggests it was all good news. And yet, the press continued the theme that was noted earlier this morning with the jobs report: "if the financial news is good, report it as not as good as predicted."
Original Post
 
This is a day late. I got sidetracked with the NDIC hearing dockets yesterday.

This will be a stand-alone on the jobs report today.

Three links::
    • unrevised level of 261,000
    • the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, edged down to 4.7% 
The jobs reports for the past couple of weeks have not been particularly good.

Having said that, the opening line for at Econoday seemed a bit unusual:
Initial jobless claims did fall 3,000 in the March 25 week but the level of 258,000 is higher than expected and, next to the prior week's 261,000, is the highest so far this year. 
And Business Insider kept up that theme, with this opening line:
Initial jobless claims fell less than expected.
I don't ever recall that being the narrative during the Obama administration but I do have selective memory.

It appears that under Trump, even if we have good news, even business reporters will find a way to paint it in a negative fashion.

But, I do have to agree: the jobless reports for the past couple of weeks have been a) horrendous -- last week; and, b) not much better -- this week.

Kiplinger, of course, got it wrong when they said the previous week's number was "unrevised." In fact, it was revised upward from 258,000 to 261,000. Had last week's number not been revised, this week's number would have been the same: 258,000. Whatever.

Finally, Kiplinger says the unemployment rate edged to 4.7% (not saying what it was previously -- it was 4.8%) and not noting that was very old news. That is February's unemployment rate and the number was released back on March 10.

The Political Page, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

Updates

April 4, 2017: Knoxville could be first US city where ObamaCare fails. CNN reports that Humana, the only insurer left on the Affordable Care exchange in the Knoxville area, is set to exit the market in 2018.

Original Post
 
Penal shock! Maybe it's just me but I find it amazing/striking/depressing/surprising (all of the above) that more than 20% of federal prisoners are non-citizens.  Link here.

Health Shock! ObamaCare stalwart Anthem seen likely to retreat for 2018. Data points from Bloombergsupports Trump's narrative -- Bloomberg:
  • Anthem likely to "pull back"
  • Anthem is "leaning toward exiting a high percentage of the 144 rating regions in which it currently participates"
  • Anthem was one of the few big insurers that stuck with ACA
  • UnitedHealth Group and Aetna Inc. have already exited most states
  • Humana planning to stop offering individual ACA plans entirely for 2018
Surrendering! Fox Business News hypes fight between Trump and the GOP faction that killed the Ryan-TrumpCare bill. Spokesman for the latter appears to have gotten the message. Says new bill will be passed before Easter. If that happens, speaks volumes about presidential tweets.

ND Budget. UND may cut women's hockey, and both men's and women's swimming programs in response to "state's bleak financial picture." I think Rob Port over at SayAnythingBlog will discuss this at length. It's only a matter of time before the state legislature taps the untappable Legacy Fund.

Legacy Fund. Through March, 2017, total deposits to the Legacy Fund were $3,833,534,676. Deposits to the fund do not equal value of assets in the Legacy Fund. According to the state's annual budget report released June 30, 2016, data points for the Legacy Fund (and this is why the fund's investment strategy is not talked about much):
  • fair value: $3,809,485,184
  • rates of return (for fiscal year ending 6/30):
    • 2016: 1.06%
    • 2015: 3.31%
    • 2014: 6.64%
    • 2013: 1.15%
    • 2012: --

Natural Gas Supply / Demand Scenarios For Injection Season -- RBN Energy -- March 31, 2017

Active rigs:


3/31/201703/31/201603/31/201503/31/201403/31/2013
Active Rigs493099194188

RBN Energy: the series continues -- US natural gas supply / demand scenarios for injection season.

Scott Adams: when to invest in climate change.

******************************
The Katie Ledecky Page

Katie Ledecky named PAC-12 newcomer of the year

Stanford wins its first national swimming and diving title in 19 years.
One year after the heartbreaking loss Stanford suffered to Georgia, The Cardinal have made it back to the top for the ninth time in their school history in their first NCAA Swimming and Diving Championship since 1998.
It was a dominate victory by Stanford who pretty much had it wrapped up by the end of day 3.
It was a special final race to end the night in the 400 free relay as Stanford’s Lia Neal, also an Olympian, would swim the anchor leg in her last race as a Cardinal.
Before the race, head coach Greg Meehan told the other swimmers on the relay, Simone Manuel, Katie Ledecky and Janet Hu, to go out and win this for Lia. They stood on the blocks, went out fast and never looked back. By the time Lia’s final lap came, all she had to do was bring them home.
Stanford ended up setting a new American and NCAA record with a time of 3:07.61, breaking the previous record they had set back at Pac-12s by 0.9 seconds. It was a storybook ending for Lia Neal and the Stanford Cardinal’s unforgettable season.
There's a nice video at the link -- the 400 Free Relay -- Ledecky had the third leg, and had a slight, very slight lead as she dived (dove?) in; she lengthened the Stanford lead by about a full body length, ensuring that Stanford would win. Stanford, 1st; then Georgia, and then USC.

And somewhat older news (previously reported): Ledeckky wins the 1650 free with second fastest time in history. Again, a nice video but it's almost 20 minutes long. The question was whether she could be the first woman to come in under 15 minutes. Not this time. A little over 15 minutes, 3 second.

But the big story was how much Stanford dominated this year (remember, they have not won the national championship in 19 years):
  • Stanford: 526.5 points
  • California: 366 points
  • Texas A&M: 292.5 points
  • Georgia: 252.5 points
  • Texas: 252 points

Thursday, March 30, 2017

"Fake News" -- Sort Of -- Drones, Connecticut, North Dakota -- March 30, 2017

The banner story over at the Drudge Report suggests that Connecticut could become the first US state to use drones outfitted with deadly weapons. I guess it's accurate, but a couple of points. First, Connecticut is only considering this proposal (and it will fail); and, second, North Dakota was the first state to allow law enforcement to "weaponize" drones. But being the sensitive Scandinavians they are, North Dakota only allows "less than lethal" weapons. From September 11, 2015:
Armed drones could be used by police in the US state of North Dakota after local lawmakers legalised their use.
While they will be limited to “less than lethal” weapons, tear gas, tasers, rubber bullets and pepper spray could all be used in theory by the remote controlled flying machines.
In a classic case of unintended consequences, the original sponsor, Republican state representative Rick Becker said he was unhappy with the way legislation turned out.
***************************

Slawson Proposes Another 18 Wells In A Drilling Unit With Seven Long Laterals -- March 30, 2017

Link here.

The hearing dockets are tracked here.

From the April, 2017, NDIC hearing dockets:
  • 25792, Slawson, Elm Tree-Bakken, 18 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 30/31-153-93
The graphic:


Making America Great Again -- Walmart To Build $135 Million Import Distribution Center At Mobile, AL -- March 30, 2017

From Benchmarkmonitor,
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. has confirmed plans to build an $135 million import distribution center at Mobile, Alabama, that’s expected to help US Gulf ports expand their foothold in containerized shipments from Asia. Gulf ports’ share of full container imports from Asia grew to 2.85 percent in 2016.
From earlier posts:
My favorite, of course, is The New York Times article in which the reporters were not convinced the expansion will succeed. Sort of like the Times article on natural gas revolution (Marcellus and Utica) being a hoax/scam. Wow.

So much for slow-downs and strikes at the Los Angeles - Long Beach ports.

I know I'm making too much of this, but of all the business stories this week, I think this Walmart announcement to build a $135 million import distribution center at Mobile, AL, may be the biggest story of the week. Seriously.

****************************
4Q16 GDP 

Most recent estimate edged up from 1.9% to 2.1%. Break out the champagne. LOL.

************************
Too Little Too Late

From Wendy's via Twitter: "So you'll still use frozen beef in MOST of your burgers in ALL of your restaurants? Asking for a friend?" LOL.

But seriously, is that the reason you will decide to visit / not visit McDonald's? LOL. The hamburgers I get from Omaha Steaks are all frozen and they are incredibly good. Fresh vs frozen is obviously over-rated.

EOR Pilot -- Madison Pool -- Samson Oil -- North Dakota -- March 30, 2017

Link here.

The hearing dockets are tracked here.

From the NDIC, April, 2017, hearing dockets:
  • 25762, Samson Oil and Gas, injection well, #15666, an EOR pilot operation in the Foreman Butte-Madison pool, McKenzie
Right now:
  • 15666, 67/AB, Samson Oil And Gas, Jackson 1-29H, Foreman Butte a Madison well, t3/05; cum 39K 3/14;  
************************************

I'd Really Love To See You Tonight, England Dan and John Ford Coley

NDIC April, 2017, Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted -- March 30, 2017

Link here.

The hearing dockets are tracked here.

Highlights of the April, 2017, hearing dockets are here.


***********************************
Comments And Disclaimer
To the best of my knowledge this was the first ad-free, password-free blog that told mineral owners that if they had one well in the Bakken, they would eventually have four wells, probably 8 wells, and possibly many more than that before this was all over. That was posted back in 2009.

Now why would I bring that up? Take a look at case #25789 below -- Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 24 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 12-151-95, McKenzie County. There are already six (6) horizontal wells in that 640-acre drilling unit. Graphics at the bottom of this post.

Disclaimer: as usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

******************************
Full Summary

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

25709, White Rock, new field, file #14876, 28-148-104, McKenzie
25710, MRO, Four Bears-Bakken, i) establish a 2560-acre unit; 2 wells; ii) 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; iii) ten wells on a 1600-acre unit; Mountrail, McKenzie
25711, Whiting, Heart Butte and/or South Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Dunn County
25712, Whiting, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Dunn
25713, Hess, Wheelock-Bakken establish a 2560-acre unit; 20 wells; Williams County
25714, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Williams
25715, Hess, Capa and/or Beaver Lodge-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well, Williams
25716, Hess, Capa and/or West Capa-Bakken, to establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, Williams
25717, Petro Harvester, i) establish two standup 640-acre units; ii) establish four standup 400-acre drilling units; iii; authorize a Madison well on each unit; Burke County
25718, Petro Harvester, Flaxton, Portal, and/or Lignite-Madison pools, establish four 640-acre units; 2 wells on each; Burke County
25719, HRC, Pembroke and/or Haystack Butte-Bakken, to establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; McKenzie County
25720, Petro-Hunt, flaring
25721, NP Resources, North Elkhorn Ranch-Bakken, establish three 1280-acre units; four wells on each; Billings County
25722, NP Resources, Rough Rider-Bakken; establish two 1280-acre units; 4 wells on each; McKenzie County
25723, NDIC, treating plant, Dunn County
25725, Hess, pooling
25726, Hess, pooling
25727, Hess, pooling
25728, Lime Rock, pooling
25729, Lime Rock, pooling
25730, Lime Rock, pooling
25731, Lime Rock, pooling
25732, Lime Rock, pooling
25733, MRO, pooling
25734, MRO, pooling
25735, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
25736, MRO, Van Hook-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
25737, MRO, commingling
25738, Whiting, pooling
25739, Whiting, pooling
25740, Whiting, pooling
25741, Whiting, pooling
25742, Whiting, pooling
25743, Petro-Harvester, SWD
25724, Whiting, SWD

Thursday, April 27, 2017

25744, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Williams
25745, Resource Energy Can-Am, Blooming Prairie-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; 1 well; Divide County
25746, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Covered Bridge and/or Pierre Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 960-acre unit; 4 wells; McKenzie
25747, Statoil, Cow Creek and/or Stony Creek-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units;1 well each; Williams County
25748, Statoil, Williston-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Williams County
25749, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 2240-acre unit; iii) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; McKenzie
25750, EOG, Ross-Bakken; establish five overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail
25751, EOG, Alger-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail
25752, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail
25753, EOG, Squires-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre units; multiple wells, Williams
25754, EOG, Round Prairie-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells; Williams County
25755, Liberty Resources, Northwest McGregor, Sauk and/or McGregor-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Williams
25756, Liberty Resources, East Tioga and/or Enget Lake-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; 1 well; Mountrail
25757, SHD, Heart Butte and/or DeepWater Creek Bay-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; 1 well; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; 1 well; Dunn, McLean counties
25758, SHD, Van Hook-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Mountrail, McLean counties
25759, Sierra Resources, Antelope-Sanish, create two 640-acre units; 6 wells; McKenzie
25760, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, i) establish a 1920-acre unit; 9 wells; ii) establish a 3840-acre unit; 18 wells; Dunn, McLean
25761, WPX, flaring in several fields in Dunn, McKenzie, and Mountrail counties
25762, Samson Oil and Gas, injection well, #15666, an EOR pilot operation in the Foreman Butte-Madison pool, McKenzie
25763, NDIC, treating plant, Dunn County
25764, Samson Oil and Gas, temporary injection of fluids, #15666
25765, Statoil, pooling
25766, Statoil, commingling
25767, Statoil, commingling
25768, Statoil, commingling
25769, Statoil, commingling
25770, Resource Energy Can-Am, pooling
25771, XTO, pooling
25772, Trendwell Energy, pooling
25773, Liberty Resources, pooling
25774, Liberty Resources, pooling
25775, Liberty Resources, pooling
25776, Sedalia Energy, pooling
25777, Sedalia Energy, pooling
25778, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
25779, Triangle USA, Squires-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Williams
25780, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Williams
25781, Zavanna, SWD
25782, EOG, Alger-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail
25783, EOG, Painted Woods-Bakken, i) multiple wells on a 1280-acre unit; ii) 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams
25784, EOG, commingling of tank vapors
25785, EOG, commingling of tank vapors
25786, EOG, commingling of tank vapors
25787, EOG, commingling of tank vapors
25788, EOG, commingling of tank vapors
25789, Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 24 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; McKenzie; 12-151-95
25790, Slawon, North Fork-Bakken 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 18/19-149-96
25791, Slawson, Sand Creek-Bakken, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 1/12-153-97
25792, Slawson, Elm Tree-Bakken, 18 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie; 30/31-153-93
25793, Enerplus, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, 11 wells on each of six 1280-acre units; Dunn
25794, Enerplus, Squaw Creek-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie
25795, CLR, Elidah-Bakken, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
25796, Henry Hill, SWD

Nine New Permits; Hess II Transfers Nine (9) Wells To Crescent Point -- March 30, 2017

Active rigs:


3/30/201703/30/201603/30/201503/30/201403/30/2013
Active Rigs493196194188

Nine (9) new permits:
  • Operators: Statoil (6), Whiting (3)
  • Fields: Painted Woods (Williams), Truax (Williams)
  • Comments:
One permit renewed: Sinclair Oil, a Nelson permit in Mountrail County

Operator transfer:
  • from: Hess
  • to: Crescent Point Energy
  • nine (9) wells; from the early Bakken
  • oldest permit: #19041
  • most recent permit: #26350
  • all in Williams County, up in Marmon and Lone Tree oil fields; 
  • area where Crescent Point active

Slawson To Drill As Many As 30 Wells On One 640-Acre Drilling Unit -- March 30, 2017

Disclaimer: this was done very, very quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. I have not had a chance to proofread this. I may not get back to this until later this evening. Don't quote me on any of this for now. 

Remember: each well stands on its own. Generally speaking, operators will not drill a Bakken well (middle Bakken, four benches of the Three Forks) without expecting a EUR of at least 750,000 bbls. 
Back-of-the-envelope: 24 x 750K = 18,000K = 18 million bbls from one section x $40/bbl = $720 million at the wellhead. There are already 6 wells projected for this section, thus another 4.5 million bbls. 
In fact, in this area, one should expect EURs of 1.5 million bbls/well. Maybe not all the wells at all the target formations, but certainly for the "better" formations (at least two, maybe three, of the five).
Back on  April 5, 2013, this was posted:
If one moves the needle to 6%, 600,000-bbl EURs, and four wells per section, one gets in the neighborhood of 40 million bbls/section/OOIP in the Bakken on the North Dakota side of the border. 
But don't take my word for it. This is from Legacy Oil talking about the Spearfish:
"In terms of resource potential, the regional extent of the Spearfish is still being delineated, however, in areas already shown to be prospective, reservoir parameters can suggest potential OOIP to be in the realm of 9.0 to 15.0 million barrels per section, which could represent 2-3 times what the southeastern Saskatchewan Bakken offers on average."
That's the Spearfish, and the Bakken is known to be a whole lot better.
My hunch is, based on what some operators said some years ago, some operators are getting more than 6% of the OOIP on primary production.
 *************************************

From the April, 2017, NDIC hearing dockets (link here):
  • 25789, Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 24 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 12-151-95, McKenzie County
The graphics:

A) overview of 640-acre units in the area of this drilling unit:


B) The 640-acre drilling unit:



C) Closer view of the multi-well pads in the immediate area:

NDIC April, 2017, Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted -- March 30, 2017

Link here.

The hearing dockets are tracked here.

The dockets will be covered over the next few hours; blogging is interrupted during the afternoon and evening due to family commitments. By tomorrow all of this should be completed. 


***********************************
Comments And Disclaimer
To the best of my knowledge this was the first ad-free, password-free blog that told mineral owners that if they had one well in the Bakken, they would eventually have four wells, probably 8 wells, and possibly many more than that before this was all over. That was posted back in 2009.

Now why would I bring that up? Take a look at case #25789 below -- Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 24 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 12-151-95, McKenzie County. There are already six (6) horizontal wells in that 640-acre drilling unit. Graphics at the bottom of this post.

Disclaimer: as usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

******************************
Highlights

Wednesday, April 26, 2017
  • 25710, MRO, Four Bears-Bakken, i) establish a 2560-acre unit; 2 wells; ii) 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; iii) ten wells on a 1600-acre unit; Mountrail, McKenzie
  • 25713, Hess, Wheelock-Bakken establish a 2560-acre unit; 20 wells; Williams County
  • 25721, NP Resources, North Elkhorn Ranch-Bakken, establish three 1280-acre units; four wells on each; Billings County 
  • 25722, NP Resources, Rough Rider-Bakken; establish two 1280-acre units; 4 wells on each; McKenzie County
  • 25721, NP Resources, LLC, 4 wells on each of three 1280-acre units
  • 25722, NP Resources, LLC, 4 wells on each of two 1280-acre units
  • 25735, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
  • 25736, MRO, Van Hook-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
Thursday, April 27, 2017
  • 25746, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Covered Bridge and/or Pierre Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 960-acre unit; 4 wells; McKenzie
  • 25749, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 2240-acre unit; iii) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; McKenzie 
  • 25750, EOG, Ross-Bakken; establish five overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail 
  • 25751, EOG, Alger-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail  
  • 25752, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells; Mountrail 
  • 25753, EOG, Squires-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre units; multiple wells, Williams 
  • 25754, EOG, Round Prairie-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells; Williams County
  • 25749, EOG, multiple wells
  • 25750, EOG, multiple wells
  • 25751, EOG, multiple wells
  • 25752, EOG, multiple wells
  • 25753, EOG, multiple wells
  • 25754, EOG, multiple wells 
  • 25759, Sierra Resources, Antelope-Sanish, create two 640-acre units; 6 wells; McKenzie 
  • 25760, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, i) establish a 1920-acre unit; 9 wells; ii) establish a 3840-acre unit; 18 wells; Dunn, McLean
  • 25759, Sierra Resources, 6 wells on a 640-acre unit
  • 25760, WPX, 18 wells on a 3840-acre unit  
  • 25762, Samson Oil and Gas, injection well, #15666, an EOR pilot operation in the Foreman Butte-Madison pool, McKenzie
  • 25779, Triangle USA, Squires-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Williams 
  • 25780, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Williams
  • 25782, EOG, Alger-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail 
  • 25783, EOG, Painted Woods-Bakken, i) multiple wells on a 1280-acre unit; ii) 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams
  • 25789, Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 24 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; McKenzie 
  • 25790, Slawon, North Fork-Bakken 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie 
  • 25791, Slawson, Sand Creek-Bakken, 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie 
  • 25792, Slawson, Elm Tree-Bakken, 18 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie 
  • 25793, Enerplus, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, 11 wells on each of six 1280-acre units; Dunn 
  • 25794, Enerplus, Squaw Creek-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie

Random Update Of An Area Of Interest In Charbonneau Oil Field -- March 30, 2017


It was noted on January 27, 2017, that Emerald Oil, Inc., had transferred 130 wells to Petro-Hunt, LLC.

Gasoline Demand; Another Under-Reported Story -- March 30, 2017


Commentary. On January 7, 2016, I posted the following:
If I was (were?) allowed only one data point to track the health of the US economy, I would select "gasoline demand." (I've said that at least once before on the blog.)

In the most general of terms, in the US (and probably around the world), there is "mandatory gasoline demand" and "discretionary gasoline demand." I assume economists have different and more precise terms.

Mandatory gasoline demand is the "minimum" amount of gasoline required by homo sapiens to do their daily business: commute to work, work, commute to school, errands (grocery shopping, for example).

Discretionary gasoline demand includes vacation travel, unnecessary errands, cruising, holiday lights viewing, Christmas shopping, teenage date nights.

Through August of last year (2015) the increase in gasoline demand year-over-over (2015-over-2014) was quite remarkable. But then, on September 17, 2015, I noted that gasoline demand plummeted.  That was a warning sign.

Gasoline demand "recovered" in October/November 2015 (compared to the previous year) but then the gap narrowed again in mid-November, 2015. Again, another red flag, perhaps.

By late November, 2015, there was a real surprise: gasoline demand in November, 2015, fell below that of November, 2014.
Now, back to the present. I can't remember if I posted this or not. I sent this as an e-mail to a reader. Our son-in-law works for a major truck manufacturer in the northwest. Late last summer/early autumn, before the November, 2016, election, our son-in-law told me that the manufacturer was struggling; truck orders were way, way down. The facility had cut from two shifts to one shift and laid off a lot of folks. The remaining employees were told specifically that the prospect of new orders would depend directly on who was elected president.

As of last week, the company has more truck orders -- a backlog -- more truck orders than it can fulfill. The truck orders came in immediately after the election. The company is now instituting mandatory overtime, the first step before re-hiring folks and starting a second shift.

The trucks are "specialty" trucks: military (small percent), heavy industry (large percent), oil sector. I often see these particular trucks carrying wind turbine towers, blades.

Production Jumps 13-Fold In Old BR Well In North Fork -- March 30, 2017

Details here.

The California LPG Story -- The Energy And Market Page, T+68 -- March 30, 2017

Disclaimer this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

*****************************
Enbridge

Enbridge. Enbridge buys Spectra, strengthens hold in North America. From Zacks.
The $126 billion merger brings together Enbridge’s liquid-weighted midstream assets from Western Canada and the U.S Midwest and Spectra's network of primarily gas-related midstream assets.
The assets include Spectra’s holdings in the U.S. North, Midwest and Gulf Coast and the British Columbia’s Canadian province. We note that a total of 1,000 jobs were cut by the merged company.
The merged company has $74 billion in secure projects and inventory. By 2019, the company is expected to start up $26 billion worth projects. Enbridge believes that the company will yield a 3–5% compound annual growth rate with the inclusion of Spectra’s projects.
The company is also expanding its platform for renewable power generation.
Comment: this has become a personal favorite of mine. Enbridge was one of the first companies that caught my interest when I started following the Bakken. I noticed early on (July 23, 2010) that this company was involved in intermittent energy in Canada; it was one of the first links at the sidebar at the right. That told me the company was able to ace an open-book test. And there it is again, the last sentence in the segment above -- "expanding its platform for renewable power generation."

******************************
Other

DUCs. Huge 300,000 bopd fracklog could derail oil policy recovery. From Oilprice.com. Old story. I don't buy it. Many reasons. Previously discussed.

Mexico. From Reuters, data points:
  • Italy's Eni
  • major gas finds in Mozambique and Egypt; holds one of the best discovery track records in the industry
  • Eni's gas discovery off Egypt was the biggest gas field every found in the Mediterranean
  • organic reserve replacement ration:
    • industry average: 35%
    • ENI: 193%
  • first international company to drill off coast of Mexico after 2013 reform opening up Mexico to foreign investors
  • recent oil discovery in Mexican GOF: original estimate -- more than 800 million bbls of light oil
  • now says the field will hold more than original estimate -- number not given
  • Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil all interested in returning to Mexico's deep waters
Permian. Swaps. From Bloomberg, data points:
  • drillers drilling longer horizontals -- 2-mile horizontals
  • slivers of land owned by another operator create issues; solution: swaps
  • acreage can run as high as $60,000 / acre in the Permian; swaps -- almost no cost
  • the slivers of land would probably not be wide enough for second company to drill
  • swaps: win-win for both companies
  • reminder: Double Eagle selling 71,000 Permian acres to Parsley for $2.8 billion (previously reported; $40,000 / acre)
  • SM Energy: "doubling the lateral length, combined with other techniques, can make a well about four and a half times more valuable 
  • SM Energy: last year bought 35,700 acres in the Permian from QStar LLC
California. California's production of propane and butane continues to decrease; the decrease in production is offset by an increase in rail shipments. This is an interesting story for the archives with regard to many, many story lines. EIA data points:
  • many, many story lines including CBR; the state's fossil fuel regulatory environment
  • total US production of propane and butanes (liquified petroleum gases - LPG) increases to over 2 million bopd
  • increased in all regions of the country except for the West Coast
  • unlike other regions, West Coast LPG production has been decreasing since 2010, driven by declining refinery production
  • production in the region totaled 80,000 bopd in 2016, 10,000 less than in 2010
  • as a result, rail shipments have become a growing means of transporting LPG to the region
  • the amount of LPG production in the US has surged (except along the West Coast)
  • West Coast import/export data: the increased ability to transport LPG by rail has allowed Western Canadian producers, who can no longer ship LPG by pipeline to the Midwest following the repurposing and reversal of a key pipeline, to ship more LPG to the West Coast, where it can then be exported to overseas markets
  • the West Coast has only one major LPG export terminal; it accounts for nearly all overseas LPG exports
  • as LPG exports continue to increase, two other terminals on the West Coast have been proposed, but the permitting phase of development is not finished yet

The Political Page, T+68 -- March 30, 2017

Judge Napolitano is back on Fox Business News, I see. No links, but it's being reported "everywhere."

March 30, 2017

Active rigs:


3/30/201703/30/201603/30/201503/30/201403/30/2013
Active Rigs493196194188

RBN Energy: Anadarko "piranha-izes" its portfolio to fund intense oil-weighted output growth.
Predictions of industry doom from the oil price collapse that started in mid-2014 turned out to be largely wrong. Most of the upstream industry has weathered the crisis remarkably well, primarily through the “high-grading” of portfolios, impressive capital discipline, and an intense focus on operational efficiencies.
And, in vivid contrast to mega-deals, this cycle has been characterized instead by hundreds—if not thousands—of small transactions. E&Ps are concentrating their assets, and building out significant contiguous acreage positions in their core operating areas while generating funds for operations and acquisitions through equity offerings, debt refinancings, and sales of non-core assets. The strongest and most aggressive of the U.S. E&Ps have been behaving like schools of piranha, eating away at small pieces of other companies and simultaneously fragmenting and reconstituting the E&P sector, with most successful companies focusing their resources, operations and investments on a few attractive plays where an advantageous combination of geology, geography and economics provide attractive investment returns.
Scottt Adams: the systems president.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Two Haystack Butte Wells That Have Interesting Production Profiles -- March 29, 2017

Folks may enjoy looking the production profiles for #19072 and #19073

California Governor Seeks To Raise State Gasoline Excise Tax

Taxes. California. Governor Brown wants the state to add 12 cents/gallon to the state gasoline tax. Good luck. The good news: California has some wiggle room. Pennsylvania leads the country in state excise tax on gasoline at 58.2 cents/gallon. California's gasoline excise tax is only 38.13 cents. At the new rate, California's excise tax would be 38.13 + 12 = 50.13 cents, still well under that of Pennsylvania. Others:
  • North Dakota: 23 cents
  • Minnesota: 28.60 cents
  • Oklahoma: 17 cents
  • Texas: 20 cents
  • New Mexico: 18.88 cents
  • New York: 43.88 cents
  • Massachusetts: 26.54 cents
I'm sure it's just me but after years of driving around the US, I have seldom seen any correlation between the quality of the state highways and the state gasoline tax. Texas seems to have some incredibly good state highways, and it's a huge state with probably more miles of state highways than any other state. Extreme weather variation (winter - summer, e.g., North Dakota) is near the top of the list of reasons for bad roads; single season extremes (hot summers, e.g., Texas, or very cold winters, e.g., Minnesota) would also be near the top of the list (I assume very hot weather is harder on asphalt than very cold winters). Precipitation would be another factor, as would be truck traffic, of course.  California doesn't seem to fit in among any of the "extreme" weather states or heavier truck traffic compared to several other states. Maybe it's all those EVs in California that are not participating the excise gasoline tax program.

EOG Reports Eight (8) Completed DUCs; All Unremarkable -- March 29, 2017

Active rigs:


3/29/201703/29/201603/29/201503/29/201403/29/2013
Active Rigs493197194188

Three (3) new permits:
  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Ross (Mountrail)
  • Comments: three Clearwater permits
Four permits renewed:
  • Thunderbird (3): three Fleck permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG: one Hardscrabble permit in Williams County
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29821, 894, EOG, Fertile 74-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29823, 931, EOG, Fertile 76-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29837, 468, EOG, Fertile 70-0509H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29838, 973, EOG, Fertile 69-0509H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30126, 444, EOG, Fertile 65-1004H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30127, 580, EOG, Fertile 64-1004H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30184, 1,078, EOG, Fertile 77-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30296, 701, EOG, Fertile 63-1004H, Parshall, t2/17; cum --

Williston Airport -- Contractor Named -- March 29, 2017

 Williston High School: see this post
See this link for several artist renditions of the new Williston High School. Updates also at this site. The JE Dunn announcement of a new Williston office is here. IMS Masonry here.
Williston airport: city picks JE Dunn to build new airport terminal. Data points:
  • website for new airport, includes master plan
  • construction to begin this summer
  • vote was unanimous
  • Kansas-based company has an office in Williston
  • beat out Q&D Construction of Nevada
  • terminal building cost: estimated to be between $40 and $45 million
  • relocation of snow removal and fire-fighting equipment: $6 - $7 million
  • total project: about $250 million
  • compare with WHS and Rec Center (both in $60 - $70 million range, if I recall correctly)
  • 59th Street NW to be rerouted
  • 1,500 acres bought for the project
  • federal funds yet to be released
**********************************
Carthage Must Be Destroyed: The Rise and Fall of An Ancient Civilization
Richard Miles
c. 2010
DDS 939.73 MIL

What a great book. I have never understood the Punic Wars. Sort of like I never understood WWI.

I'm about halfway through the book. The First Punic War is about to start, c. 260, Chapter 7, page 177 of 373 pages of narrative, and then the notes begin.

So far, the story can be summarized:
  • Tyre
  • Carthage, Melqart, Herakles
  • Carthage in Sardinia
  • Carthage vs Syracus (Sicility)
  • Carthage vs Rome (up to this point, Carthage a naval power; Rome, a land power)
  • First Punic War, 264 BC: preceded by Romans taking all of Sicily
Herakles plays a huge role in this book, a huge role.

I haven't truly gotten to the war(s) yet, but one might be able to say that the Punic Wars have an analogy in the Pacific theater in WII. In the Punic Wars, the conflict began with control for the Mediterranean Sea, control of an island, Sardinia. In WWII, it began with control of the Pacific Ocean, beginning with an attack on a Hawaiian island. 

One of my favorite "museums" is  J. Paul Getty Museum's "Getty Villa" in Malibu, California.The museum is built "around" Herakles. I did not understand the "importance" of Herakles until I read the Richard Miles book. The book is worth its weight in gold. I'm reading it for free, through the auspices of the Grapevine (TX) public library.

Making America Great Again -- Nevada Tops The List; Texas #19; The Market And Energy Page, T+67, Part 2 -- March 29, 2017

Exiting Canadian oil sands: Cenovus Energy will acquire COP's 50% interest in Foster Creek Christina Lake partnership, the companies' jointly owned oil sand opererated by CVE, and the majority of COP's Deep Basin conventional assets in Alberta and British Columbia, for $14.1 billion in cash and stock.

********************************
The American Dream

From Axios:
First look ... Forbes launches The American Dream Index, using seven indicators of economic health "to track on a state-by-state monthly basis whether President Trump is Making America Great." The debut rankings:
Best off: Nevada, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas and Georgia.
Worst off: Alaska, Hawaii, Connecticut, Illinois and Kansas.
The big states: Washington ranks 15th, Pennsylvania 16th, Texas 19th, California 26th, Michigan 27th, Wisconsin 29th, Virginia 30th, Maryland 31st, Ohio 32nd, New York 41st and New Jersey 45th.
Montana made the top ten, coming in at #9. North Dakota did not make the top ten.

The Forbes link here.

*******************************
This Should Move South Dakota Up The "American Dream Index" 
Later: A reader provided the rest of the story.

From Engineering News Record: Otter Tail Power to build 250-MW natural gas power plant in SD. Data points:
  • to be built in eastern South Dakota (near where the DAPL crosses SD); near Astoria, SD
  • along the SD/MN border, about 75 miles north of Sioux Falls, SD -- where the Big Stone "North Dakota lignite-fired" power plant should have been built 10 years ago but Minnesota enviro's killed it.
  • near the intersection of the Northern Border natural gas pipeline and the Big Stone South-to-Brookings 345 KV electric transmission line which I suppose has excess capacity probably pre-built to accomodate the cancelled Big Stone coal fired  plant....maybe to transport canadian hydro the REAL replacement for Hoot Lake?
  • $165 million / 250 MW ($660,000 / MW -- about what we have come to expect)
  • Otter Tail will retire its Hoot Lake coal-fired plant (Minnesota, same area) by 2021
  • Hoot Lake will also be replaced by 150 MW wind farm in southeast North Dakota actually 30 MW net capacity factor  which is just political posturing not a reliable power source....worth-less-than-nothing -- except the tax credits and the political PR
  • the wind farm: $250 million ($1.7 million /MW -- also about what we have come to expect) but the dispatchable power is 20% so the cost is really $8.5 million/MW
  • the wind project will be near the small town of Merricourt, approximately 15 miles south of Edgeley, North Dakota, in McIntosh and Dickey Counties because Minnesota doesn't want this ugly junk that will be left to rot onsite in about 15 years.

1Q17 Earnings

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.
 

Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earnings season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 

Maybe a few.

Apple:

CAT
:
  • slams earnings. Earns $1.28 vs $0.62.
CLR:
  • will announce May 3, 2017

Dupont
:
  • slams earnings.
EOG:
  • webcast on earning, May 9, 2017
EW:
  • EW up 10% on strong earnings, strong guidance. Up 1% during the day; up 10% after-hours trading. 
Fiat Chrysler profit jumps 34%. 

 GE:
McDonald:

  • slams earnings. Earns $1.47 vs $1.33. Comps up 1.7%. Even beat on revenues.
NFLX (Netflix):
  • Netflix shares jump on news of deal for distribution in China; shares up 6% 
SRE:
3M:
  • slams earnings 
US Steel:
  • US Steel with a huge loss both on the top line and the bottom line. All that excitement over Trump initiatives to make America great again apparently did not happen fast enough.

Connecting The Dots -- Keystone, Canadian Oil Sands, Heavy Oil, Light Oil -- March 28, 2017

I track the Keystone XL milestones here.

I'm not going to look for it now, but some time ago I posted a rather nice commentary about the rise and fall of the Keystone XL pipeline. Once the final chapter / epilogue is written, it will be obvious how and why this all unfolded.

I don't have the energy to go through it again, but when piecing the pieces together, these are themes to keep in mind, in chronological order:
  • heavy oil, light oil
  • US refining 
  • US dependence on the Mideast
  • what the Saudis realized when the Canadian oil sands were becoming front page news
  • how the Bakken revolution interrupted the Keystone XL story, but was always a peripheral player
  • how the Bakken sustained collateral damage due to the Keystone XL
  • why the Keystone is "bad" for the Bakken
I had started putting this post in draft a few days ago. It was purely coincidental that RBN Energy also had back-to-back blogs on the same issue over the past couple of days.

Connecting the dots:
This will also help, showed up on Twitter, March 30, 2017:

*************************************
A Map That Needs Updating

From Pipeline101.


The Market And Energy Page, T+67 -- March 29, 2017

Crude oil inventories: up 0.9 million bbls -- EIA. I don't know what the forecast was, but this is incredibly low considering the size of the increase in crude oil inventories over the past few weeks.

WTI: after the release of the weekly crude oil inventory data -- no change.

Home sales: 2nd highest level since 2006. 

Saudi: tax cuts boost Aramco value by $1 trillion. Rigzone.
The kingdom’s change, which will reduce the tax rate on the petroleum industry from 85 percent to 50 percent, means more cash will go to the potential owners of the company than to the government. The value of Aramco depends largely on the tax regime, and the tax regime funds much of Saudi’s treasury. Aramco is on track to launch the world’s largest IPO in 2019.
Nuclear power, bankruptcy: Westinghouse files for bankruptcy, blow to nuclear power. NY Times.

Pipe. Tenaris, world's largest maker of seamless-steel pipe for the energy industry, says creation of 600 jobs at $1.8 billion plant in Texas assures him that Trump won't stop US imports of certain types of pipes. Quite a story. A member of the Trump cabinet, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, championed Tenaris’ investment decision when he was governor of the Lone Star State. In addition, Tenaris is also investing $2.3 billion in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation to drill 150 wells in the  world’s second-biggest reserves of shale gas and fourth-biggest of shale oil. Bloomberg.

Apple. Many, many stories recently. Everyone's bullish it seems. Now, Apple expert Gene Munster weighs in -- "this is the golden opportunity to buy Apple."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here.

Back to Apple: from the CNBC story -- data points
  • yesterday, another record high, $143.80
  • UBS Steven Milunovich: $151 price target, but $200 in the next few years
  • because of poor performance in the prior year, year-over-year comparisons get so easy
  • year-over-year comparisons go from 3% to 12% growth from now until September
  • in addition: all the hyper around the phone; 171 days until next iPhone is release; just in time for the holidays
GE. For the archives. From Barrons:
The bull case now is that not only can earnings inflect but cash will also ramp to a range of $1.74-2.10, a mid-point that is 3x standing levels, 2x higher than the average of the past 15 years, 40% higher than the prior high in 2009.
To us, there is no such thing as “perspective” when it comes to cash—we believe the problem is that earnings have always been more of an opinion here, cash is a fact. We continue to believe that the sustainable base rate of 2018 GAAP FCF is around ~$1.10 and those recent bullish estimates are overstated, in our view.

***************************************
North Dallas, DFW, The I-35E Corridor North, Dallas North Tollway 

The "new golden triangle in North Texas": downtown Dallas north to Frisco, southwest to Rhome, and then southeast back to downtown Dallas.

This area, to me, has the feel of what it must have been like when Los Angeles was booming after WWII and into the 50's. I wasn't in Los Angeles at the time and I don't know the history well enough to make the comparison, but having spent a fair amount of time on the north side of Dallas and north of Dallas for the past few years I can say I am seeing a transformation that seems quite remarkable, to say the least.

Today, May and I spent the better part of a half day in the Harwood District of Dallas -- an 18-block area which seems to be the place to be for great restaurants and great evening entertainment. (We would have stayed much longer but we are "hemmed" in by taking the granddaughters to school at 7:00 a.m. and picking them up beginning at 3:00 p.m.)

We were told that the Harwood District is the fastest-growing district in the United States right now. 

We had lunch at the Saint Ann restaurant & Bar, at the south end of the district, and to some extent, the gateway to the district itself. I don't think folks would consider Dallas a "walking town" but it only takes about fifteen minutes to walk from the south end of the district, starting at Saint Ann's, to the north end, the Asel Art Supply store.

The highlight of our visit was The Samurai Museum, the largest collection of Samurai "art" in the world, outside of Japan.

The Dallas Morning News reported the museum's opening back in 2013. The museum is on the second floor of the historic Saint Ann school; the restaurant is on the first floor. From the website:
Located in the Dallas’ fast-growing district of HARWOOD, Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar is an urban oasis nestled between the American Airlines Center and Klyde Warren Park.
Originally built in 1927, the historic school has been transformed into a modern environment that boasts the largest garden patio in Dallas and is consistently voted as “Best Patio in Dallas” by D Magazine and “Best Outdoor Dining” by OpenTable. The restaurant’s refined yet casual atmosphere and extensive menu has made it a favorite among patrons.
It is open Monday through Friday for lunch, every day for dinner and drinks, and Saturday and Sunday Brunch. The first level of the two-story red brick building is Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar and the second level is The Ann and Gabriel Barbier-Mueller Museum: The Samurai Collection. Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar is located at Moody and Harwood at 2501 N. Harwood St., Dallas, Texas 75201. The venue was designed by Laura Lleal and developed by Harwood International.
I was amazed how inexpensive luncheon was considering its location and its history. 

It's possible the garden patio is no longer the largest garden patio in Dallas. I don't know, but I think the new Happiest Hour has a larger garden. Happiest Hour is located a short city block form Saint Ann, and is one of many restaurants owned by the same family in the Harwood District. It opened in 2015. Website is here; more at GuideLive.

The Political Page, T+67 -- March 29, 2017

Brexit. Begins.

Internet privacy. Bye-bye. But the best part of the article is the incredible hyperbole. The quote below was at the very end of an earlier version of this article; it has now moved to near the top of the story:
Advocates for tough privacy protections online called Tuesday’s vote “a tremendous setback for America.”
“Today’s vote means that Americans will never be safe online from having their most personal details stealthily scrutinized and sold to the highest bidder,” said Jeffrey Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy.
Other people's money. Sweden -- moving back toward a 70% tax bracket.  But this is what amazes me. The US struggles to hit 1% GDP growth, but Sweden:
The government recently flagged that solid finances will be an opportunity to boost welfare spending. It expects the economy to expand 2.6 percent this year, after growing more than 3 percent in 2016 and topping out above 4 percent in 2015 amid a record inflow of refugees.

At 49 Rigs -- March 29, 2017

Active rigs:


3/29/201703/29/201603/29/201503/29/201403/29/2013
Active Rigs493197194188

RBN Energy: market realities weight heavily on the Canadian oil sands.