Monday, December 26, 2016

Mexico Is Now A Net Importer Of Crude Oil From The US -- December 26, 2016

Updates

December 22, 2016: US refiners cash in on Mexico's record fuel imports. Data points: 
  • let's start with this: the world's fourth-largest consumer of gasoline
  • car sales? September, 2016: car sales increased 18% year-on-year, to a record 1.2 million units for the month 
  • US shipping record volumes of fuel to Mexico; transportation costs practically "nil"
  • Mexico failed to expand its refining network to meet fast-growing economy
  • fuel trade could top one million bopd at times in 2017
  • Mexico becoming increasingly dependent on the US for energy
  • refiners cashing in: Valero, MRO, Citgo 
  • Mexico's economy: has expanded for 27 quarters in a row but unable to increase its refining output to meet demand
  • in 2016: crude exporter Mexico will be a net importer from the US for the first time as shipments of refined fuel heading south outnumbers shipments of crude heading north
  • just ten years ago, the US saw net oil imports from Mexico at 1.45 million bopd
  • and, for Mexico it's only going to get worse as the govt cuts funding for Pemex 
Original Post
Completely off my radar scope:
  • Mexico's gasoline demand growing faster than that in the US;
  • Mexico's automobile sales surging;
  • global glut of crude oil;
  • excess gasoline to the country north of them; and,
  • Mexico is suffering gasoline shortages and long lines at gas stations.
The story is here.

But bad editing ...

Reminds me of my blog. 😒

Psycho Killer; Nothing About The Bakken Yet -- December 26, 2016

Disclaimer: this is not a dance site. Do not make any jazzercise, zumba, Arthur Murray, or aerobic dance decisions based on anything you see here or think you may have seen here. Likewise, this is not an investment site. Do not make investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. This is an education and entertainment site. But that's not why it was created. Have we gone off the rails yet?
 
Psycho Killer, Talking Heads

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Natural Gas and All That Jazz

For natural gas addicts: we're still not in a bubble -- SeekingAlpha contributor. This is the reason I'm linking the article. Some definitions:
The four categories of commodity traders discussed in the article above are:
  • Money Managers. A "money manager" is a trader engaged in managing and conducting organized futures trading on behalf of clients. This category includes registered commodity trading advisors (CTA), registered commodity pool operators (CPO), or unregistered funds ("hedge funds").
  • Producers/Merchants/Processors/Users. A "producer/merchant/processor/user" is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities.
  • Swap Dealers. A "swap dealer" is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer's counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity.
  • Other Reportables. Every other reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories is placed into the "Other Reportables" category.
For zumba addicts, put on your wireless Beats or AirPods and turn the volume up high:

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

I am seriously considering "taking" zumba lessons -- though I don't really think you "take" zumba lessons. You just show up and start dancing. My wife's instructor is Colombian and I've had one evening with her zumba. If I do this: no video. 😎

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Politics

Trump: consumer confidence at an 11-year high; market up 10%; and Christmas spending to exceed $1 trillion. Via Twitter.  His tweet left out the part about consumer confidence at an 11-year high. Fact-check that $1 trillion. The rest has been previously posted, fact-checked. No "I's" in Trump's tweet.

Obama: "I would have won against Trump."  Whatever. Get back on the golf course.

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Football

The odds tonight for the Dallas - Lions game:
  • OddsShark: Cowboys by six; over-under at 45 points.
  • Computer: 30.1 - 13.7 = 16.4; over-under 43.8
  • Actual: 42 - 21 with four minutes to play; Dallas recovers a fumble and has the ball
A six-point spread?

Whiting, Oasis To Report Some Nice Bakken Wells -- December 26, 2016

Tuesday, December 27, 2016
  • 29557, drl, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6-4H, Sakakawea, no production data,
  • 31331, 648, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 8T2,  Three Forks second bench, 36 stages, 4 million lbs; Siverston, t6/16; cum 85K 10/16;
Monday, December 26, 2016
  • 29694, 2,413, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-2H, Epping, 30 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t7/16; cum 83K 10/16;
  • 32713, drl, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 5H, no production data,
Sunday, December 25, 2016
  • 28239, 1,124, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 145-97-20C-17-5H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 32714, SI/NC, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 XE 1H, no production data,
Saturday, December 24, 2016
  • 31330, 527, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 7B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 118K 10/16;  
  • 32137, SI/NC, EOG, Ross 106-0915H, Alger, no production data,
***********************************

31330, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 7B, Siverston:


Oil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163111163092
9-20162606922199
8-20162602437470
7-20163131245287
6-201630541244

29694, see above, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-2H, Epping:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2016899412981
9-20161985425579
8-20162557533087
7-20162723628664
6-201613032099

31331, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 8T2,  Siverston, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20161999133026
9-20161517617120
8-20162313934067
7-20162496442177
6-20161391324

Snow In The Bakken -- Why The New Williston Airport Is Needed -- December 26, 2016

Updates

December 27, 2016: 37 photos of the 2016 North Dakota blizzard

December 27, 2016: the most snow in North Dakota in my lifetime. Predicted by global warmists. This is most recent storm, not totals for the winter. Bismarck, at 12.5 inches, is well down the list. Williston, at 12.0 inches, almost matches Bismarck. My sister Jan and nephew Connor Amtrak to Williston this week; due in today or tomorrow, I believe. It will be interesting to hear what they have to say. The only rumor I've heard is that Rudolph, the red-nosed reindeer, is enjoying another fifteen minutes of fame this holiday season.




December 27, 2016: the global warmists predicted this back in 1994:


December 27, 2016: two more inches of snow and a record stretching back to 1883 will be broken

Later, 2:23 p.m. Central Time: my wife, a huge Hillary supporter, and global warmist, asked me where in the world would they put all that ND snow? My reply:
I think they are going to put all the snow in railroad coal cars.
As you know, due to global warming, the country is no longer mining nor shipping coal (coal used to be a big deal for railroads) and now the coal hoppers are completely empty and sitting on rail sidings between Seattle to Boston.
They can put the snow from North Dakota (Williston, Minot, Bismarck, Grand Forks, and Fargo) into all those coal hoppers owned by Warren Buffett (Burlington Northern Railroad) and ship it to the Kennedy clan in Boston.
As you know, some years ago, Patrick Kennedy famously said he was sad that his kids would grow up never seeing snow (because of global warming).
Shipping the snow back to Boston will: a) get the snow out of ND; b) provide a lot of great paying jobs for BNSF employees; c) make Warren Buffett rich(er), which is good great for our portfolio; and, d) will put a smile on the faces of all those Kennedy kids.  
I will pay dearly for that blasphemous reply, but it was worth it. 😅

Later, 2:10 p.m.: I do not recall ever seeing this much snow in Williston while growing up, nor have I seen this much snow in Williston in any photograph of Williston since 1951.

From The Williston Herald (great photo at the link):
Almost exactly 1 foot of snow fell between Christmas and Monday in Williston, according to the National Weather Service in Bismarck.
That left the town looking like a winter wonderland — as long as people didn’t have to go anywhere. High winds, including gusts of nearly 50 mph Sunday night, caused massive drifts to pile up, making travel difficult and, in some places, practically impossible.
Original Post
 
When I was five or six or seven years of age, I remember vividly the huge piles of snow we had in Williston. I remember the huge snow forts we built right out on the street at the intersection of 8th Avenue West and 17th Street North, about as far to the edge of Williston at the time. It's now in the center of "new" Williston.

Then in my high school years, not much snow. Snowmobilers had a tough time finding time finding any snow; it was even tough for me to find much snow to test my 1947 Willys jeep, my first "car."

It appears things have changed remarkably. It appears North Dakota is getting more snow than ever. It's being reported that Bismarck (think DAPL) just received 12 inches of snow in the most recent storm (Decima?).


Don tells me this is the third or fourth such snowstorm since November of this year. For newbies, New Town and Ray are in the heart of the Bakken.

And this is why the new airport in Williston is critical. It will be needed for the Kennedy clan to fly in once they discover yet another location where they can show their grandkids the last bit of snow before global warming does us all in.

More likely, it's very possible, we could see Air Force 1 with President Trump aboard landing at Williston's new airport for a photo op.

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The Literature Page

I hurriedly read Henry Beston's The Outermost House, so I could read the biography of Henry Beston which was just published in November, 2016.

The Outermost House is a beach book; it was a pleasant memoir of the author's twelve months in a small house he built on the eastern bank of Cape Cod, near Eastham, just north of the elbow. His house on the cape was proclaimed a National Literary Landmark in 1964. The cover of the softcover that I read said it was the 75th Anniversary Edition. Its first copyright was 1928. I doubt many will enjoy the book; I'm certainly not recommending it. But I loved it.

I'm sure the reason this book has lasted this long is because all the Cape Codders needed something to read to while their days away on the beach. This would be the book (among many others, I assume). I assume this book is a bestseller at the Yellow Umbrella bookstore in Chatham.

Now that I've read it once, I will read it again. It's as much a birder's book as anything else.

I know I won't do it, but I have a romantic notion to spend more time on Cape Cod. Arianna and Olivia hardly need me now; in five years they won't need me at all. Sophia and I need each other and are joined at the hips, but this, too, will last only four or five more years. In ten years she will be Arianna's age and we will both go our separate ways.

2022, I will be older than I am now. If my health holds out I will still be young enough to live on my own in a little pied-a-terre for a year. If the economy is such in 2022 that I could afford, who knows?

I wish Beston had included an index of the birds he mentioned in The Outermost House. That will be a project for me over the next few weeks. It will be interesting if he mentions the piping plover. The piping plover is to Cape Cod what the sage grouse is to Wyoming. Despite a gazillion dollars and decades of effort to save these two species, it seems it may just not be in the cards. But elk and buffalo are doing incredibly well on the Great Plains.

Random Update On Whiting's Flatland Wells In Banks Oil Field -- December 26, 2016

The wells:
  • 32559, 1,416, Whiting, Flatland 43-9HU, Banks, 4 sections, 35 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 170K 1/18;
  • 32562, 1,385, Whiting, Flatland 43-9-1XH, was a DUC, now confidential; producing 11K in 10/16; API 33-053-07531; FracFocus: wells fracked 9/3-16/16 -- 14.6 gallons of water; 7.5% silica by weight; 35 stages, 9.8 million lbs; t10/16; cum 236K 1/18;
  • 32561, 2,370, Whiting, Flatland 43-9-1H, was a DUC, now confidential; producing 11K in 10/16; , t10/16; cum 167K 1/18; (25802 -- big jump in production)
  • 32560, 1,385, Whiting, Flatland 43-9-2H, was a DUC, now confidential; producing 9K in 10/16; 35 stages, 7.5 million lbs, t10/16; cum 163K 1/18;
  • 20068, PA/929, Whiting, Flatland 9-9H, t9/11; cum 100K 4/17; 
  • 32822, 2,342, Whiting, Flatland 24-9-1XH, Banks, t10/17; cum 125K 1/18;
  • 32823, SI/NC, Whiting, Flatland 24-9-2XH, Banks, producing as of 10/17; will be a big well;
The graphic:







Random Update On The Monroe-Pasadena Wells -- December 26, 2016

Updates

July 22, 2018: #33095, Monroe 13-2H1 will report this week --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20183340355119
4-2018384612117


May 2, 2018: a CLR Monroe well updated here.

April 10, 2018: Bakken 2.5.

December 31, 2017: the CLR Monroe wells in Banks oil field have been updated; a couple of them are in the "50K club." An updated graphic:






Original Post
A reader asked about these wells:
  • 23790, TA/TD, CLR, Pasadena 2-2H, no production data,
  • 23791, TA/TD, CLR, Pasadena 3-2H1, no production data,
  • 23792, TA/TD, CLR, Monroe 2-2H1, no production data,
  • 23793, TA/TD, CLR, Monroe 3-2H, no production data,
From a July 25, 2016, sundry form for one of the wells (#23792) from CLR: "The well will be completed once commodity prices improve to a point where it is economic to do so."

Other wells sited in this section:
  • 22891, IA/947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, 35 stages,  3.3 million lbs, t8/12; cum 307K 2/17; off-line since about 2/17;
  • 30253, 3,225, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, 4 sections, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; from a November 4, 2016, sundry form -- "CLR .... requests a waiver to plug and reclaim an abandoned well ... the well will be completed once commodity prices improve ..." Spud August 15, 2015; reached KOP on August 18, 2015; KOP curve drilled in 36 hours; wellbore landed 18' into the middle Bakken; the rig was then skid over to the Monroe 7-2H; background gas averaged 600 units; a high formation gas of 1106 units was observed when traversing the upper Bakken shale; the 13,537' long lateral began drilling on October 17, 2015; reached TD on October 23, 2015; 78 stages; 11 million lbs; "... plug & perf completion; 15% 100-mesh & 85% (40/70) natural white sand; t10/17; cum 394K 5/18; huge well; 50K+ 1/18;
  • 30251, 2,313, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 78 stages; 16.6 million lbs, unspecified mix of mesh and 40/70, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months; t10/17; cum 237K 5/18;
  • 30254, 1,302, CLR, Monroe 8-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 53 stages; 10.7 million lbs, 28% mesh/72% 40/70; t1/18; cum 77K 5/18; going to be a huge well;
  • 30252, 1,823, CLR, Monroe 9-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 53 stages; 16.2 million lbs; 19% mesh & 81% 40/70; t1/18; cum 127K 5/18; another huge well;
  • 33098, 1,858, CLR, Monroe 10-2H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks B1, 82 stages; 10.6 million lbs; "plug and perf completion; pump 25% 100-mesh & 75% (40/70) natural white sand, started off slow, but 45K in fifth month; t10/17; cum 163K 5/18;
  • 33097, 1,594, CLR, Monroe 11-2H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks B1; 82 stages; 16.5 million lbs; "... 12 toe stages with ball & sleeve then 70 stages utilizing plug & perf with unspecified mix of mesh and 40/70 sand, t10/17; cum 147K 5/18;
  • 33096, 1,905, CLR, Monroe 12-2H1, Banks, t3/18; cum 30K 5/18; will be a huge well;
  • 33095, SI/NC, CLR, Monroe 13-2H1, Banks, producing as of 1/18;
Running into this section from the south:
  • 21148, 809, CLR, Pasadena 1-11H, 24 stages, 2.2 million lbs, t7/12; cum 217K 5/18; no jump in production;
The Banks oil field is (and is going to be) an incredible oil field. CLR, Oasis, Statoil, and Whiting all have a significant presence in this field. It will be interesting to compare their wells over time.

Quick comment: the Monroe wells look to be very good wells; with new completion techniques one assumes they will be even better. 😃

*****************************************************

Putting The Bakken Decline Rate In Perspective -- December 26, 2016

This is a link to an old article sent in by a reader. The story is from The [London] Telegraph four years ago, December 30, 2012. It has to do with wind farms, wind turbines, and economics. Data points:
  • the wind industry and most analysts base wind energy economics on 20- to 25-year lifespan of the turbines
  • the question is whether analysts factor in a decline rate 
  • onshore wind farms generate electricity effectively for just 12 to 15 years
  • offshore: the decline rate is even worse
  • blades and/or turbines will need to be replaced more quickly than the industry estimates
  • (yes, Virginia, the costs will be passed on to the consumer -- by regulation and by law)
  • the "load factor" for wind turbines:
    24% in the first 12 months of operation
  • 11% after 15 years
  • "load factor": an efficiency rating; percentage of electricity actually produced vs theoretical maximum
  • the subject has been discussed ad nauseum but the industry still gets away with it: promoters allowed to "sell" their product using theoretical maximums despite knowing that in actuality, the best one can expect is less than a fourth of that in the first, declining to a tenth just ten years later
  • larger wind farms have systematically worse performance than smaller wind farms
Much more at the link.

The SEC meanwhile is going after Exxon for the way it values its reserves.

**********************************************************
More Fake News

I thought "they" were going to quit printing "fake news." More click bait: "2016 was the year solar panels finally became cheaper than fossil fuel. Just wait for 2017."

Not holding my breath. 

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Not Fake News

China has announced it will start paying less for renewable energy in light of decreased costs to install renewable energy projects. Bloomberg is reporting that China will cut tariffs by nearly 20% in 2017 for solar energy, and 15% for wind energy.

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Is Gartman Losing It?

I was looking for something else on the blog when I ran across this old post, which reminded me of a more recent post:
  • crude is not going above $55 for years -- Gartman 
  • Uber is "top threat" to oil -- Gartman
It started out as a trickle, but more and more media outlets are re-posting the story: there is a small, but influential, group of investors (these articles call them "speculators" placing bets (making investments) based on possibility of $100-oil as early as 2018. When I get around to it, I will post a link but that's not on my list of things to do this morning.