Saturday, December 17, 2016

Cold Front Swept Into North Texas About One Hour Ago -- December 17, 2016

It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas,



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It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas, Bing Crosby

Random Update On A Petro Harvester Madison Well Along The North Dakota-Canadian Border -- December 17, 2016

Updates

December 30, 2016: see first comment regarding natural gas production. I have updated the production data to include the most recent data available (through 11/2016).

December 29, 2016: a reader provided an incredible update on these Petro Harvester wells along the Canadian border. 
 
Original Post
 
Besides the Bakken, anything else going on in the Williston Basin? Glad you asked.

Here is an update of a relatively recent Madison well:
  • 31720, 274, Petro Harvester, Busch Trust 31-30 164-92 B, Portal oil field, Burke County, a Madison well, 13 stages, 1.4 million lbs, TVD landing at 6,372 feet (shallow compared to middle Bakken); connection gases as high as 5,300units; target window 6-feet thick Midale; sAugust 25, 2015; TD, 12,380 feet, September 17, 2015; lateral about 6,580 feet; t12/15; cum 105K 11/17;
Scout ticket and production profile:

NDIC File No: 31720     API No: 33-013-01819-00-00     CTB No: 131720
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 11/30/2015     Wellbore type: Horizontal (company calls it directional)
Location: SESW 31-164-92     Footages: 283 FSL 2089 FWL    
Current Operator: PETRO HARVESTER OPERATING COMPANY, LLC
Current Well Name: BUSCH TRUST 31-30 164-92 B 
Total Depth: 12380     Field: PORTAL
Spud Date(s):  8/25/2015
Completion Data
   Pool: MADISON     Perfs: 6615-12265     Comp: 11/30/2015     Status: AL     Date: 12/13/2015     Spacing: ICO (Permit request: 400 acres)
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: MADISON     Cum Oil: 71639     Cum MCF Gas: 196703     Cum Water: 174160
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 12/13/2015     Pool: MADISON     IP Oil: 274     IP MCF: 289     IP Water: 536

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON11-201630481043821883334107341070
MADISON10-201631601560382102542761401932568
MADISON9-201630491243861650524687235191168
MADISON8-20163153765356147802075320288465
MADISON7-201631728971611570226622246491973
MADISON6-201630873792371579427182252121970
MADISON5-201628757069081273913420116201800
MADISON4-2016305089501913793740230674335
MADISON3-2016315728544017001762307623
MADISON2-2016296220656613104923509235
MADISON1-2016317716747313345847608476
MADISON12-2015316910664015886829208292
MADISON11-2015677044862500250

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CAVE Dwellers -- December 17, 2016

I had no plans to link this story over at PennEnergy. These stories are a "dime-a-dozen," and frankly, getting a bit tiresome and trivial. This is the headline: Northeast Ohio gas pipeline opponents vow to delay project.
Northeast Ohio residents who have tried to get a natural gas pipeline moved away from their communities are vowing to engage in delay tactics after a federal agency dismissed their suggested alternate routes.
Opponents say they will not allow surveys or sell easements for the $2 billion NEXUS Gas Transmission project unless ordered to do so by a court.
"I will stand my ground, as everyone else is standing, until all of our resources and options are exhausted," said Medina County resident Jon Strong, who has helped lead the effort to reroute the pipeline the last 2 ½ years.
The 255-mile-long line would carry gas from Appalachia across northern Ohio and into Michigan and Canada. Most of the high-pressured line would be in Ohio. Construction is slated to begin by March.
But then I received this note from a reader:
New England spot price approached $300/ MWh this morning, coincident with oil fueled generation kicking in at about 9:00 a.m. 
Absolutely hard to believe they are a short car ride away from the biggest natgas source on the planet.
New England spot price can be followed at ISO Express. $30 / MWh is the "right price" when one is just hours away from the Marcellus / Utica.

For the archives, the US is in experiencing one of the coldest winter storms on record, winter storm Decima. Boston recorded its coldest December 16 in 133 years. Algore is updating his PowerPoint presentation.


Bakken Update -- Filloon -- December 17, 2016

Over at SeekingAlpha:
  • Continental is well placed in 2017 with a large core footprint in the STACK/SCOOP
  • well design improvements have been significant as 2015 Bakken payback times are down to 18 months at $58/bbl using a 71 well sample
  • the DAPL is very important to CLR differentials, as it could decrease differentials by $4/bbl
Frack jobs have gotten bigger. This has occurred through a change from sliding sleeves to plug and perf (shown above). Sliding sleeves are much faster and cheaper, but have limited access points. More perforation clusters are used with plug and perf.
The closer these access points are, the greater number of fracks. Operators are finding that cheaper isn't always better. Going back to plug and perf is the continued theme. Most are doing this.
Recent North Dakota completions are better than its 900MBOE target. The four wells above provide a ceiling to results. We can assume these are some of its best Bakken wells. Although this is very good data, we are more interested in the average of all its results over a given timeframe. The focus has been on CLR's flagship play. The STACK/SCOOP produces well at low prices. The Bakken may be more important.
Determining the oil price needed for North Dakota to be economic, provides insight into its development. 860,000 net acres is a significant investment.
CLR completed 71 wells from April 1 st of 2015 to September 1 st of 2015 in North Dakota. During this time, it was moving from sliding sleeves to plug and perf.
And then this:
Most believe the Permian and STACK/SCOOP have the best economics. The Eagle Ford and Bakken have breakevens $5 to $10/bbl higher. OPEC has stated it wants to cap oil prices at $60/bbl. This seems to target marginal production unconventional acreage.
$60 oil doesn't do much for Saudi Arabia.

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Top UK Pop In 1965



A bit here.

On stage:
  • Moody Blues
  • Freddie & The Dreamers
  • Georgie Fame
  • The Seekers
  • Herman's Hermits
  • The Ivy League
  • Sounds Incorporated
  • Wayne Fontana
  • Rolling Stones
  • Cilla Black
  • Donovan
  • Them
  • Searchers
  • Dusty Springfield
  • The Animals
  • Beatles - had the longest set
  • Kinks

Bakken Oil Deals In 2016 -- December 17, 2016

This is just a bit of housekeeping. There is nothing new here; this has all been posted before. I am simply putting all the "2016 - Bakken Deals" in one place to "clean up" the sidebar at the right.

EOG to buy Yates Petroleum, September 6, 2016
Enbridge to buy Spectra; September 6, 2016 
Enerplus: 5,800 acres, December, 2016
SM Energy - Oasis 55,000 Acres, October, 2016
CLR sells 80,000 acres, August, 2016
SM Energy, undisclosed, August, 2016
Oasis transfer to Samson Oil & Gas, June, 2016
Fidelity NG transfer to Scout Energy, April, 2016
Emerald Oil files for bankruptcy, March, 2016
OXY USA 346 Wells To Lime Rock 
Whiting-NP Resources, January, 2016
Early 2016 deals
Kaiser-Francis - Fidelity - 65 wells
Samson Oil & Gas, $16 million, 51K acres

Saturday, December 17, 2016 -- Blogging Will Be Minimal

Active rigs:


12/17/201612/17/201512/17/201412/17/201312/17/2012
Active Rigs4064182186183

Quiet day. Not much to report.

Book trip. This is so wonderful. From The Williston Herald via Twittter, data points:
  • Stony Creek eighth graders, field trip
  • Books on Broadway
  • "star" readers -- six students -- earned their way to a field trip to the best bookstore in the US: Books on Broadway
  • each student got to pick out a book and enjoyed a cup of cocoa
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The History Page
Ivory Vikings: 
The Mystery of the Most Famous Chessmen in the World and the Woman Who Made Them 
Nancy Marie Brown
c. 2015

I've written about this book on a couple of occasions. Yesterday I made notes on the introduction of the book.  Today, I will skip ahead and take notes on chapter two, "The Bishops."

The chess bishops are most interesting. Chess originated in India. "Modern" chess came about among the Norse near the end of the Age of the Vikings. Modern chess bishops are "Christian"; obviously what preceded bishops in India were not Christian.

It will be interesting to see how bishops evolved.

Among the early Norse: secular king and chief religious cleric were one and the same. The question naturally arises, then, how "modern" chess retained the king/queen but added the bishop (or more correctly, replaced what came before with a Christian chessman).

Notes with regard to the Lewis bishops:
  • only unarmed pieces on the board; only non-warriors on the board
  • crozier, the ceremonial shepherd's crook
  • curlicue, the top of the crozier
  • the dalmatic, the stole, and alb beneath the chasuble, or cope
  • all are bishops, no archbishops: all are missing the pallium (wool from sheep raised by Trappists)
  • an archbishop also carries a cross, not a crozier
  • none are bearded, though beards were the style in the 12th century
  • all wear the latest in ecclesiastical hats: before 1049, bishops covered their heads however they pleased; in 1049, Pope Leo IX introduced the Roan miter "to remind bishops they were disciples of the Roman see"
  • these miters date the Lewis chessmen between 1150 and 1200
  • discussion: horns (twisted hats) vs non-horns; the miter of Absalon, archbishop of Lund (then Denmark, now Sweden) from 1178 to1202 matches that of the Lewis chessmen
  • Archbishop Absalon consecrated Pall Jonsson as bishop fo Skalholt, Iceland, in 1195; either of these two men could have commissioned the Lewis chessmen
So, the "man" who put the bishop on the chessboard was .... a bishop. -- page 64 -65.

A third possibility: Eystein, archbishop of Trondheim from 1157 to 1188

A fourth, but very unlikely, name: Pall's predecessor, Thorlak, bishop of Skalholt from 1178 to 1193.

A fifth cannot be ruled out: Pall's friend Bishop Bjarni of Orkney (1188 - 1223).

Chess: 997 A.D.  -- "counts" were placed beside the king and queen

Predecessors to the bishops on the board:
  • al-fil: the elephant; early texts; a form of the Arabic name for the original piece on these squares; makes sense, Indian origin; elephant; al-fil became alphins
  • the Arabic elephant and the Christian bishop are not clearly linked until the mid 1200s
  • Pope Innocent III is often said to have given the Middle Ages sermon that stated clearly, "alphini sunt episopi; "the alphins are bishops; Pope Innocent III reigned, 1198 - 1216
  • but the sermon could not have been written by Innocent III -- the full sermon is harsh on bishops; likely writer: Franciscan friar John of Wales, writing between 1238 and 1262, had no sympathy for greedy bishops
  • other possibilities
  • bottom line: sometime between 1144 (when the French bishop twisted his miter) and the mid-1200's, bishops debuted on the chessboard
  • standard in Iceland and perhaps, Norway, by at least 1300; but not universally adopted
  • as late as 1562, English playwright noted that carvers made that position on the board anything they wanted: bishops, Alphins, Princes, Archers
  • the Oxford English Dictionary cites that 1562 quote as the first use of the chess term bishop which has remained the name in English
  • modern Norwegian, Swedish, Danish, German: use a word that means "runner" or "courier"
  • some suggest that use of that word suggests chess was carried north from England to the north (Norway, Iceland) and three possibilities: bishops Pall and Thorlak (previously mentioned) and a third: chieftain Hrafn Sveinbjornsson
Prime-signing: during years Norse were converting; a preliminary form of baptism; -- page 74

The chapter goes onto another 42 pages, but I have the basics of what I was looking for, so I will end here.

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Sophia Learning To Play Checkers

With her dad, and one of her older sisters, out in California:

Alaska's Budget Deficit; Flawed System Of Large Tax Credits For Oil And Gas Industry -- Politician -- December 17, 2016

For background, see this post.

At the full survey, page 17: among the "medium reserve holders," states ranked by policy perception:
1 - Oklahoma
2 - Wyoming
3 - North Dakota
4 - Norway -- North Sea
5 - Netherlands

11 - New Mexico

16 - Pennsylvania

21 -- Alaska

31 -- Brazil

36 (last) -- Bolivia
I was curious to see the rankings again (I had forgotten them) after reading this story over at PennEnergy:  Alaska challenged with budget deficit.
Gov. Bill Walker has proposed cutting hundreds more state jobs as part of a budget plan that includes the use of earnings from Alaska's oil-wealth nest egg and ultimately tripling state motor fuels taxes.

Walker's budget office said the governor's overall budget plan, if implemented, still would leave a budget deficit of nearly $900 million that would need to be closed with lawmakers' help.
In a statement Thursday, Walker said the state has already slashed its budget and will look for more ways to reduce costs. But he said Alaska can't cut its way to prosperity and a critical discussion is needed on raising new revenue.
The last paragraph of that article:
Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, R-Anchorage, said while Walker has gotten things started, House and Senate need to work on responsible ways to fill the deficit.
In a release, LeDoux, one of three Republicans who joined with Democrats and independents to form a new House majority for the coming Legislature, said she hopes fixing the state's "flawed system of subsidizing the oil and gas industry with large tax credits will be part of the fiscal solution."
If that becomes the prevailing attitude, one wonders if Alaska, currently #21 of 36 medium reserve holders, will drop farther down the list.

By the way, in the United States, Texas is the only state that is considered a "large reserve holder" along with UAE, Qatar, Alberta, and China.