Friday, December 16, 2016

Idle Chatter, Nothing About The Bakken-- December 16, 2016

Bloomberg has a most interesting story on Shell and the company's new finance officer.

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Idle Chatter

I absolutely love to blog; I learn a lot. I started the blog simply to try to understand the Bakken. I've written about that elsewhere and won't go through it again.

Two things about blogging. A lot of "stuff" I've read in mainstream media over the years (New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, etc) is nothing more than blogging. It seems that articles in the mainstream media have become more like blogs than "news" over the years.

The second thing about blogging is that I find myself reading other blogs much more often than I otherwise might. Tonight I ran across a very interesting blog. I won't link it or provide enough information for others to find. I can guarantee that no one would be interested and I don't want folks to wonder how I ever found this particular blog. I stumbled upon it through a book review over at Amazon.com. It was a most entertaining review and written in a style I had not seen before. Fortunately, the reviewer left a link to his own blog, something that I didn't think Amazon.com "allowed." But in this case, the link was there.

I went over to that blog and was absolutely fascinated. The writer's interests seem to be atheism / Christianity; the German language (I think his first language is English, but he took up German in school and has an advanced degree in the language); and politics. At least politics now because of the Trump/Hillary campaign. He is very much a Hillary supporter and would hate my politics, but I get the feeling we could easily discuss the candidates in a friendly matter and he would call me an idiot and I would call him by his first name.

It turns out that he has been told he has Asperger's syndrome. He knows that some folks consider Asperger's syndrome on the autism continuum and he has no problem with either diagnosis. He calls it a "condition."

Some years ago, after I retired out of / from the US Air Force, I was a substitute middle school and high school teacher for several years. I absolutely loved it. I taught in a district that had an exceptionally large number of students with special needs. They were a challenge, but they really taught me a lot. One high school student I remember particularly well was diagnosed with Asperger's syndrome. He was incredibly smart in math but he had difficulty with interpersonal skills only to the extent that if those around him "bothered" him, he did not have boundaries or filters to moderate his behavior. If those around him treated him with respect and/or deference he was just fine. But if "teased" it was going to be a bad scene. It was then I wanted to make sure he did not have any sharp objects. Whatever. I digress.

The point is, he taught me a lot about his "condition" and human relationships in general. What I learned from him made reading the blog I alluded to that much more enjoyable.

He started blogging the same year I started blogging, 2009. I see that he has a "Support My Blog -- Donate Now" gofundme account. His gofundme goal is $250 million.

He has received $130 to date. 

Whiting's Rolla Federal Wells -- Update Status -- December 16, 2016 -- IN PROGRESS

The usual disclaimer applies. In a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. There may be errors on the maps. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

January 9, 2017: highlighted in Whiting's December, 2016, presentation

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Background

Whiting Tarpon Federal and Flatland Federal wells are some very big wells. I was curious what the wells looked like in the immediate area. It turns out Whiting has drilled to depth thirteen (13) wells one mile to the east, the Whiting Rolla Federal Wells. The wells are still on confidential status but  based on production numbers have probably been fracked. I assume I could verify that at FracFocus, and I may do that later.

If I counted correctly:
  • middle Bakken wells: 3
  • Three Forks, first bench (B1): 4
  • Three Forks, second bench (B2): 6
I will come back and sort this out later, but I think there is enough here to give folks an idea of the size of these Whiting Rolla Federal wells and where they are located.

Note: I labeled the Whiting Tarpon Federal wells below but failed to label the Whiting Flatland Federal wells in the screenshots below, but at the link above you can find graphics that show the relationship of the Tarpon wells to the Flatland wells.


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The Whiting Rolla Federal Wells

32326, 2,420, Rolla Federal 11-3-1H, API 33-053-07417; bottom hole: section 9, t10/16; cum 240K 9/18; MB
 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201645231103925
9-201654698646

32327, 3,149, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFH, API 33-053-07418; bottom hole: section 9, t9/16; cum 281K 9/18; TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163414077507
9-2016947216636

32328, 2,053, Rolla Federal 11-3-2TFH, API 33-053-07419; bottom hole: section 9, t10/16; cum 272K 9/18; TF B1

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163571091885
9-201610761590

32329, 2,861 (scout ticket has a typo; it's been corrected), Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, API 33-053-07420; bottom hole: section 10; t10/16; cum 482K 9/18;  TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163942491968
9-201663569250

31710, 2,426, Rolla Federal 21-2-1TFH, API 33-053-07153; bottom hole: section 10; t10/16; cum 296K 9/18; TF B1

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163680577907
9-201644819441

31711, 3,810, Rolla Federal 21-3 2TFH, API 33-053-07154; bottom hole: section 10; t10/16; cum 272K 9/18; TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201651858110686
9-201611143887

31712, 2,274, Rolla Federal 21-3-1H, API 33-053-07155; bottom hole: section 10; t9/16; cum257K 9/18; MB

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20163857890326
9-20161055316170

31715,  3,465, Rolla Federal 21-3-3TFH, API 33-053-07158; bottom hole: section 10; t10/17; cum 272K 9/18;  TF B1

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201644905106061
9-201623873043

31704, 3,271, Rolla Federal 31-3-1TFH, API 33-053-07148; bottom hole: section 10; t9/16; cum 256K 9/18; TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201646538102339
9-2016879312121

31705, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, API 33-053-07149; bottom hole: section 10, t10/16; cum 276K 9/18;, TB B1

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20162633056199
9-201641357989

31706, 3,771, Rolla Federal 31-3-3TFH, API 33-053-07150; bottom hole: section 10; tn/d; cum 252K 9/18; TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20164307594334
9-2016818415954

31707, 2,546, Rolla Federal 31-3-4TFH, API 33-053-07151; bottom hole: section 10; t9/16; cum 250K 9/18; TF B2

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20161788238616
9-2016732815115

31708, 3,101, Rolla Federal 31-3-1H, API 33-053-07152; bottom hole: section 10; t9/16; cum 234K 9/18; MB

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20162080848118
9-20161072122636

Week 50: December 11, 2016 -- December 17, 2016

Internationally the big story has to be "US shale LNG to Japan -- another first."

Operations
Surge in oil production in two North Dakota oil fields
Crude oil production, October, 2016, by oil field 

Fracking
Halo effect of a Johnsrud well
High-intensity Oasis well
Whiting report high-intensity well

CBR
Increase crude oil by rail, October, 2016

Miscellaneous
Enerplus to sell non-operated assets in the Bakken
EOG, CLR not hedged

Bakken Economy
Another refinery in the Bakken (Canadian)
New Town, ND, with school enrollment record; Dickinson "baby boom"

No New Permits -- December 16, 2016

Active rigs:


12/16/201612/16/201512/16/201412/16/201312/16/2012
Active Rigs4064184191181

No new permits.

Two permits renewed:
  • Whiting (2): two Froehlich permits in Stark County.
There appears to be a typographical error on the daily activity report regarding operator transfer.
  • Five wells are being transferred from Denbury Onshore to Scout Energy Management, LLC; all older wells in Stark County.
That was all there was of significance.

ISO Express -- Down -- Too Many Hits - December 16, 2016

Just asking: if Russians hacked the election, favored Trump, hurt Hillary, how did Hillary win the popular vote?

Breaking NewsLink here, although at the moment the site is down -- brought to my attention by a reader. This will be an interesting site to follow over the next several days. [It's up now. At 6:00 a.m. electricity rates were around $115/MWh. LMP: locational market pricing or location marketing price.]

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The Literature Page

I first wrote about Nancy Marie Brown's Ivory Vikings back on June 27, 2016

These notes are only from the introduction of this book. 

The book is about "modern chess" based on the Lewis chessmen. "Modern chess" arose somewhere among the Norse in the mid-12th century. The argument is who carved the Lewis chessman and/or where were they carved. The Lewis chessman were found in the early 1800s on a beach on the Isle of Lewis (hence the name of the chessmen) which is among the Hebrides, west Scotland. The argument seems to be whether the chessmen were carved in Iceland or in Trondheim, Norway; and, whether Margret the Adroit was the sculptor of most of the pieces.

The author ends the introduction stating that without a reopening of the dig at Skalholt we will never know the answer: carved in Skalholt, Iceland; or, carved in Trondheim, Norway. 

There are enough chessmen to almost comprise four full chess sets -- I believe the number of pieces lacking for four full chess sets is four.

The chessmen are made from walrus tusk from Greenland (99.999% agreed).

The book explains why the very famous match between Bobby Fischer and Boris Spassky in 1972 was held in Reykjavik, Iceland (page 16).

Today, while re-reading the book, I was struck (again) by the number of interesting words used by the author, some I was familiar with, some that were new to me. The words include:
  • Norse netsuke
  • berserk
  • underground cist (ancient burial chamber or coffin; stone or hollowed-out tree)
  • miter, chasuble, crozier
  • fey monarch
  • open fleurs-de-lis-topped crown (a personal connection)
The amount of trivia in this book is incredible. For example, this: "More medieval literature exists in Icelandic than in any other European language except Latin." -- p. 11

Chess
  • tafl: translated as "chess"
  • hnefatafl: considered a precursor to "modern" chess; translates as "fist-table" chess
  • skaktafl: Icelandic word for "chess" (modern chess)
Snorri Sturluson (wrote, 1220 - 1241): foster brother of Bishop Pall. Snorri was to Norse mythology that Homer / Hesiod were to Greek mythology.
  • Pall was born in 1155;  great-grandson of King Magnus Bare-Legs of Norway -- who conquered Scotland, the Hebrides, and the Orkney and Shetland Islands; took his nickname from his fondness for wearing kilts
  • elected Icelandic bishop; in 1194
  • Pall was Margret the Adroit's patron
  • Skalholt Cathedral: largest wooden church in all of Scandinavia at the time; southern Iceland; burned to the ground in 1309
Norway and the King Magnus family rules Scotland until 1266 (for about 150 years)
Bottom line: tight relations between Iceland and Scotland; tight relations between Scotland and Norway.

Icelandic timeline:
  • 870: first settlements in Iceland
  • 1000: conversion to Christianity in Iceland
  • 1053: first Icelandic bishop elected
Viking Age: late 8th century to mid-11th century; Vikings regularly associated with Byzantium
  • official begins 793 with the sacking of Lindisfarne Abbey, 793 (late 8th century)
Byzantium (from this post);
The Early Centuries [ -- to 802]
  • from Constantine the Great through Justinian to the Iconoclasm
Part II: The Apogee [802 - 1081] (corresponds with Viking Age)
  • from images restored to Manzikert
Part III: The Decline and Fall [1081 - 1453] (corresponds with Viking Age)
  • from Alexius Comnenus the the Angevin threat to the fall 
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Fried Rice

Over the years we've had several woks but for unknown reasons I haven't seen a wok in our small apartment here in north Texas. I finally got around to buying a new wok this past week -- on sale at local Albertson's - and did fried rice for the first time in a long time.

Aleppo: The Obama Doctrine -- How He Has Shaped The World -- Atlantic Monthly; Thank You Tour -- December 15, 2016

December 15, 2016, 6:30 p.m. Central Time. First time I've ever watched a Trump speech -- "thank you" tour in Hershey, PA. Absolutely incredible. The "stadium" is packed and he says 8,000 people waiting outside in freezing weather.

He tells the Texas, Georgia, Utah, Iowa story. Wins Iowa by over ten (10) points. Then Florida. The story of all the buses lined up in Florida. It turns out "all" the Trump people rode the buses. Funny, funny story. Wins Florida "by a lot." Great, great orator.

He gave seven speeches in seven different venues on election eve. Hillary had one event on election eve: a concert. His last speech was at midnight, election day morning. Hillary never went to Wisconsin once. 


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Spain In Our Hearts

I'm re-reading Adam Hochschild's Spain in our Hearts, a memoir of the Spanish Civil War, 1936 - 1939. Re-reading the battle for Madrid, relatively early in the book, suggests that talking heads on television, talking about Aleppo, have never read or possibly never even heard of the Spanish Civil War. I've heard some talking heads suggest there is nothing in human history that compares to Aleppo.  Well, we have the Turkish-Armenian genocide; Stalinist genocide; the Holocaust; Pol Pot; Mao Tse-Tung; Saddam Hussein; the Spanish Civil War; and, the list goes on.

On page 95 of the book, the author introduces Jason "Pat" Gurney, a 26 y/o London sculptor and activist, who joins the International Brigades to fight on the side of the Republic. The International Brigades had been organized by the Communist Party but that did not bother him, despite him writing/saying:
They [the Soviet Communists] were always right. There were never two ways about anything. They had studied the works of Marx, Engels and Lenin, which held the correct answer to any subject under the sun, and that was the end of the matter. Since they believed this as implicitly as any of the most bigoted sects believed in their own scripture, the Party was not for me. Moreover, the members he knew had no sense of humor. Any hint of levity was treated like farting in church.
Sound familiar?
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Obama's "Red Line"

From March 26, 2016:
Breaking news:  Russia says its warplanes have made 40 sorties around the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra in past 24 hours, with 158 Islamic State targets hit, more than 100 militants killed. ISIS takes notice. [By the way, six days ago it was reported that ISIS has re-entered Palmyra -- December 16, 2016.]

Is the US even involved any more? President Obama made the decision to "sit this one out." That was reported in the cover story of this month's issue of The Atlantic: "The Obama Doctrine: How he has shaped the world." From that story, these two sidebars highlighted his un-Trumanesque doctrine:
  • The moment Obama decided not to enforce the red line and bomb Syria, he broke with what he calls, derisively, "the Washington playbook." This was his liberation day.
  • Leon Panetta, one of several SecDefs for President Obama, has criticized the president's failure to enforce the Syrian red line.
From September 11, 2014:
This is the opening paragraph from the most recent issue of The New Yorker, "The Talk of the Town," p. 27:
Even the most forgiving judge of Barack Obama, one willing to overlook his preference for chipping onto the sunlit greens of Martha's Vineyard rather than brooding in the fluorescent glare of the Situation Room, must admit that the President has sometimes been a thick-tongued steward of his own foreign policy. How did the author of "A More Perfect Union" become the author of "The worlld has always been messy"? Obama, who prides himself on late-night preparation, unshakable rationality, and a writerly ear, is compiling an anthology of botched pronouncements that have, at best, muddied his intentions.
August, 2012: "We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized." [Which, by the way, almost sounds inner-city-gangsta.]
September, 2013: "I didn't set a red line. The world set a red line." -- President Obama.
August, 2014: "I don't want to put the cart before the horse. We don't have a strategy yet."

Baby Boom In Dickinson; New Town, ND, Hits School Enrollment Record; Great News For Shut-Ins, Elderly, Folks Without Cars, Others -- McDonald's To Test UberEATS Delivery -- December 16, 2016

Link here. Test will be three sites in Florida -- lots of older, senior citizens: Miami, Orlando, Tampa -- 200 McDonald's restaurants; hopes to roll out system-wide in 2018. Story also notes fast food restaurants impressed with sales generated from "apps." Folks order food on-line, then pick-up at fast food restaurant. I've already seen that phenomenon here in north Texas. It's really quite remarkable.

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Bakken Economy

From The Williston Wire:
Stanley, ND needs larger post office:
With the growth of the Stanley community, the US Postal Service is considering relocation of their facility in Stanley. They have outgrown their current space  which is 1,872 square feet. A public meeting was held at Stanley City Hall on Dec. 5 to discuss the options and reasons for the move. USPS Real Estate Specialist Greg Shelton  said they have identified five different potential locations, four of which would involve building of a new facility. The fifth would see them moving into the former Food Pride store just off of Main Street.
New Town school enrollment hits record:
The New Town School Board took another step to cope with an influx of students that continues to grow in spite of a drop in oilfield activity. Edwin Loe Elementary School Principal Rick Lindblad told the board that elementary enrollment in grades K through 5 exceeded 500 students for the first time this month. Superintendent Marc Bluestone asked the board to consider transferring $1 million from the district's oil revenue to the building fund. The board agreed to the request. "We are at an all time high with enrollment," Bluestone said.
Dickinson baby boom -- from myndnow 
Since [oil] prices and production of oil dropped, many people left Dickinson, but young families decided to stay.

That caused a baby boom. Since 2008, CHI St. Alexius hospital have seen an increase in births every year.

This year, they're on pace to deliver more than 700 babies. That's the most since the last oil boom in the 80s.

CHI St. Alexius Dr. William Lowe has been at the hospital for three years, but has been a doctor for more than four decades. It's safe to say, he's been pretty busy.

"We've been doing about 40-50 deliveries a month. We've had 19 so far this month. We are on scale to have 40-50 this month.  Myself and Doctor Arnold have 160 due between now and June. We have 30 due in February and 25 due in March.  "  

Halo Effect Noted With Oasis Johnsrud Well -- December 16, 2016

I track the Johnsrud wells here

Production profile for this well:
  • 22202, 2,104, Oasis Johnsrud 19-18H, Siverston, 28 stages, 3.3 million lbs, t5/12; cum 215K 10/16; off-line most of 7/15
[Note; added after original note was posted: with regard to "halo effect" see this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/12/possible-halo-effect-of-eog-well.html.] 

Recent production profile:


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20163055665439603512165104411724
BAKKEN9-201620202924273385247022700
BAKKEN8-20163160896129132171201611235471
BAKKEN7-201629205415309034393036400
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-201619255033023
BAKKEN3-201631284629231270555952490
BAKKEN2-201619839509430127410840
BAKKEN1-2016301610209272541553500355
BAKKEN12-2015312088178271044874056121
BAKKEN11-20153020432383815438618222264
BAKKEN10-20153120742347900407221551607
BAKKEN9-20153021491691748541751170
BAKKEN8-20153122512095717550251920
BAKKEN7-20153121812294105046729363426
BAKKEN6-20152921372115969456404274

Oasis Reports Nice High-IP, High-Intensity Well -- December 16, 2016

The well in North Tobacco Garden fracked with 20 million lbs proppant, 50 stages:
  • 31919, 1,413, Oasis, Johnsrud Federal 5198 11-18 3BX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, 50 stages, 20 million lbs, t6/16; cum 126K 10/16;
I track the Johnsrud wells here

2016 Geico Rock Awards -- December 16, 2016

"I completely missed all those Trump signs in Pennsylvania. I completely missed all those standing-room-only-overflowing Trump rallies because the cameras never showed the size of the crowds. Hillary was going to win anyway. Why worry about Russian hacking?"
The Obama administration didn’t respond more forcefully to Russian hacking before the presidential election because they didn’t want to appear to be interfering in the election and they thought that Hillary Clinton was going to win and a potential cyber war with Russia wasn’t worth it, multiple high-level government officials told NBC News.
“They thought she was going to win, so they were willing to kick the can down the road,” said one U.S official familiar with the level of Russian hacking.
Deadline for submitting nominees for the 2016 Geico Rock awards is COB, Friday, December 16, 2016. Awards will be announced next week if I don't forget.

Gulport Energy Enters SCOOP -- December 16, 2016

20,000. Everyone on watch for this. Largest surge in market following any presidential election. Comes with highest consumer confidence in twelve years. Fed rate increase, two days ago, now "history." 

Active rigs:


12/16/201612/16/201512/16/201412/16/201312/16/2012
Active Rigs4064184191181

RBN Energy: moving more midwest motor fuels into the east.
Each winter, New York spot prices for gasoline and diesel spike higher than spot prices in Chicago, opening a seasonal arbitrage opportunity for Midwest refineries and motor fuel marketers—if only they could move more product east from Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 2 to the East Coast’s PADD 1.
Midstream companies have taken note, and have been adding eastbound refined product pipeline capacity in Ohio and Pennsylvania. So far the aim has been to move gasoline and diesel as far east as central Pennsylvania, but the longer-term goal seems to Philadelphia, which ironically is the center of East Coast refining. Today we look at the ongoing shift in market territories claimed and sought by gasoline and diesel refineries and marketers in PADDs 1 and 2.
Gulfport Energy enters SCOOP: from Bloomberg.
America’s shale gas drillers are back to looking for the next big play.
On Wednesday, Gulfport Energy Corp. struck a deal to buy acreage in an oil and natural gas field in Oklahoma known as Scoop for $1.85 billion, marking its first foray in a region that Newfield Exploration Co. has devoted most of its capital budget to and Devon Energy Corp. invested almost $2 billion in late last year. Gulfport Chief Executive Officer Michael Moore described the acreage as a “sizeable and scalable footprint in a new operating area.”
The deal underscores renewed interest among drillers in exploring emerging plays outside the heart of the U.S. shale gas boom -- the Marcellus formation of the Appalachian Basin. The number of rigs drilling outside major basins has rebounded to the highest levels since February as prices rallied and a shortage of pipelines carrying the heating fuel out of Appalachia limited drilling there.
Gulfport described the assets as being in a part of the Scoop play that’s rich with natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company said it will complement its existing assets in the Utica shale formation, an Appalachian play.
First gas at Cygnus, UK's largest producing gas field in 2017: from Rigzone. Data points:
  • located 90  miles off coast of Lincolnshire
  • will contribute 5% of the UK's total gas production
  • 2P reserves estimated to be 635 billion cubic feet of gas
    field discovered in 1988 
  • required a government tax allowance of $810 million for project to go ahead
  • work began in 2012
  • created 5,000 jobs across the country during construction phase alone