Thursday, December 8, 2016

The Road To New England In Real Time In Five-Minute Intervals -- December 8, 2016

A reader brought this site to my attention. Or google "ISO Express" -- it should be the second hit -- go to "ISO New England: real-time maps and charts."

If you want to see "spot prices" for electricity in the Northeast, go to that site.

It seems the hourly LMP graph might be most interesting (you can set it for any date) but the "five-minute real-time LMP graph just below it to the left is even more interesting. The "average" cost is about $30/MWh but overnight -- looking at the 5-minute graph -- the cost spiked to over $200/MWH just before 6:00 am.

As the reader mentioned to me, it will be interesting to watch the spike next week when the next Arctic spell hits the northeast.

Since we didn't see any Drudge Report linked to this site, apparently folks don't get excited until the spikes are well above $250/MWh.

A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this. It should provide hours of fun on cold, dark nights this winter. In fact, I can this turning into a real drinking game, betting how high the spikes will be during the next cold snap.

Many, many graphs at the site; don't forget to check out the "fuel mix" site.

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Curious How The Jill Stein Scam Works?

Time magazine tells you.

One should have noted it was a scam as soon as she started increasing the money-goal she said she needed. Initially she said she needed $2.5 million, but as the money rolled in, she raised the amount she said she needed -- in fact, there seemed to be a linear relationship between how fast money was rolling in and how fast she would raise her goal.

When internal algorithms suggested she was nearing the top of the scam, she begged poverty, saying she could not continue with the recalls because she did not have enough money -- though the released figures suggested otherwise. The amount of money not spent will probably pay expenses for her and her staff, as lawyerly billing hour-fees, let's say a conservative $200/hour, plus great per diem expenses. Just saying.

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Curious About Oil Shale Vs Shale Oil?

Outrun Change will help you out. What peak oil?

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The Weather Page

I don't recall the Polar Vortex of January, 2014, but it must have been a big, big deal -- it has its own wiki page. Some meteorologists are talking about a similar event as early as next week. Based on what we've had so far, this wouldn't surprise me.

Whiting's Carscallen Wells In Truax Oil Field -- December 8, 2016

Whiting's Carscallen wells in Truax oil field:
  • 32368, 1,764, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-2H, 4 sections, 45 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t7/16; cum 371K 9/19;
  • 32340, 2,010, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-4H, Truax, 4 sections, 45 stages, 13.6 million lbs, t7/16; cum 377K 9/19;
  • 32339, IA/1,556, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-3H, 4 sections, 45 stages, 8.2 million lbs, , t7/16; cum 68K 7/18; off-line since 12/17; remains off line 5/19;
  • 32338, 1,734, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14H, Truax, 4 sections, s1/30/16; TD, 2/10/16; API: 33-105-04227; t7/16; cum 321K 9/19;
  • 31239, loc, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-4TFH, last checked 9/19;
  • 31238, 2,744, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-3TFH, s7/30/15; TD, 8/12/15; 2,600 units gas, t10/15; cum 287K 9/19; only 11 days, 8/19 - 9/19;
  • 31237, loc, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-2TFH, last checked 9/19;
  • 31236, 1,172, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-1TFH, s8/15/15; TD, 829/15; very high gas pressure, 5,562 units; with a 3 - 15' flare; API: 33-105-04045; fracked 9/23 - 10/5/2015; 7.5 million gallons water, t10/15; cum 140K 9/19;
***********************************

32338:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20161979863255
9-20162619363703
8-20163410268728
7-20164076355884
6-20161450013905

32339:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2016723920672
9-201638138127
8-2016826222092
7-20161871637854
6-201626772502

32340:


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20162850866649
9-20163478048101
8-20163830648529
7-20163348632270
6-201642499009


32368:


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20162299758071
9-20162786052005
8-20163658853657
7-20164091660777
6-20161141115802

Whiting Reports A Huge Well In Truax Oil Field Friday -- December 8, 2016

Active rigs:


12/8/201612/08/201512/08/201412/08/201312/08/2012
Active Rigs4065191193181

One well coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 32338, 1,734, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14H, Truax, 4 sections, s1/30/16; TD, 2/10/16; API: 33-105-04227; t7/16; cum 136K 10/16;
Fifteen permits renewed:
  • XTO (5): five Hartel permits in McKenzie County
  • Hess (4): four BB-Federal A permits in McKenzie County
  • BR (4): two Elizabeth Stroh and two Cecilia Stroh permits in Dunn County
  • Petro-Shale (2): two Sabrosky permits in Dunn County 
**********************************

32338, see above, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14H, Truax:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20161979863255
9-20162619363703
8-20163410268728
7-20164076355884
6-20161450013905

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A Note To The Granddaughters
Two Apartments Full of Reminders

This was kind of fun. My wife noticed this photograph in the Friday, December 9, 2016, issue of The Wall Street Journal, a 1,000-foot apartment in Paris. She immediately noted the resemblance to our own apartment here in the Dallas-Ft Worth area. The small piano next to / under the bookshelves was the commonality. The apartment in Paris:

Our apartment north of Ft Worth:


1.Yamaha digital piano, acquired for "a song" at a used music instrument store
2. Photographs of the "ranch" in North Dakota
3. New bike; Grapevine Bike Center
4. Clay sculpture by middle granddaughter, when she was five years old
5. Art work by third granddaughter, age 2

Secretary Of Labor Named -- December 8, 2016

December 8, 2016: fast-food executive Andy Puzder for Secretary of Labor. Puzder, chief executive of CKE Restaurants Inc, which operates the Carl's Jr. and Hardee's fast-food chains, has been a vociferous critic of government regulation of the workplace. I've posted comments from Puzder on several occasions.
I track the Trump cabinet here.

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UAS-Focused Data Center Locating At Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota

Data points from The Grand Forks Herald:
  • Grand Forks AFB-based Grand Sky drone business park
  • located on Grand Forks AFB, west of Grand Forks
  • EdgeData
  • 16,000-square-foot data center 
  • will be operational within a year after construction costs
  • ND legislation offering computer software, IT equipment tax breaks was critical to get EdgeData to make this commitment, according to CEO
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Dallas Police And Fire Pension Board Stops Withdrawals
Most Incredible Pension Plan Ever Seen
Retire As Millionaires "On Paper" -- Keep Working 
Defer Additional Pension Deposits Into New Account

Link here.  Data points:
  • lump sum withdrawals stopped
  • weekly requests would have left them without liquid reserves to sustain $2.1 billion fund
  • by time action taken, more than $500 million has been withdrawn
  • the DROP plan made hundreds of officers, firefighters, and retirees into millionaires: DROP allowed them to retire on paper, but continue working and meanwhile defer their pension benefit checks into a separate account; once they actually retired, they could remain in DROP
  • for years, DROP guaranteed at least 8% interest on accruals
  • fund has about $729 million in liquid assets; it needs to keep about $600 million on hand
Diga Diga Doo, Odeur de Swing

New Acronym In The Bakken: NCW -- December 8, 2016

This is so incredibly cool and why I love to blog.

A reader over at the discussion group asked a very interesting question about something I had not seen before.

Look at these two scout tickets (edited), and pay attention to "Well Status" and "Status."

Scout ticket #1:
NDIC File No: 23793     API No: 33-053-04392-00-00
Well Type: OG     Well Status: NCW     Status Date: 11/30/2016     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Current Operator: CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: MONROE 3-2HTotal Depth: 24786     Field: BANKS
Spud Date(s):  4/19/2015
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: SI     Date: 7/25/2015

Scout ticket #2:
NDIC File No: 31308     API No: 33-061-03713-00-00     CTB No: 218808
Well Type: OG     Well Status: NC     Status Date: 8/26/2015     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: WAYZETTA 96-3019HTotal Depth: 17852     Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  7/27/2015 
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: SI     Date: 8/26/2015

The "well status": NCW in scout ticket #1 and NC scout ticket #2.
"Status": SI

I had never noticed that before but a sharp-eyed reader did. I just always saw "SI/NC."

It took a bit of looking and it appears others have had the same question. This is the best answer I've found, from peakoilbarrel.com:
I compared last months well types with this as below, based on the info in the GIS map on the ND DMR web site – I don’t know exactly when these are down loaded but I think it is more up to date than the monthly report numbers. The interesting thing to me was that the drilling and completions are entirely separate. Drilled wells become NC, and NC wells become A (active) or for a few TA (temporary abandoned) or NCW (Non completed waiver if they have gone over the two year limit I think this means). This makes sense so the drilling and completions crew can optimise their own work without interfering with each other. But also it means there has to be a large inventory of DUCs – each company needs at least a months worth of inventory, and maybe as much as 6 months, just to be able to plan ahead. So talk of a sudden draw down on DUCs to provide a big production boost is probably not correct.
In addition, in the very old literature, back to the 1920's I can find a lot of references to NCW but not what it stands for. It would make sense that in the "old" days when all wells were completed as expeditiously as possible it would take a waiver for an exception.

So, my hunch is that the reader is correct, NCW = non-completed well with a waiver.

Prior to 2014, the NDIC rule was that wells had to be completed within a year of being spudded.

In 2014, the NDIC rule changed: without a waiver, operators were given an extra year, but they still needed to be completed within two years.

I assume, that operators can apply for a waiver if for some reason they cannot complete a well within the new rule.

Eyes Wide Shut -- The Longevity Question -- December 8, 2016

This is one of those "aha" moments.

Read through this NPR article about the "decrease" in US longevity. Read it slowly, maybe re-read it again.

Think about it. Try to think why "the overall US death rate has increased for the first time in a decade."

Analysts say they are a loss to explain this. My understanding is that this "study" is accomplished on an annual basis.

This is what caught my attention, these two paragraphs:
Still, he believes the data from 2015 are worth paying attention to. Over that year, the overall death rate increased from 724.6 per 100,000 people to 733.1 per 100,000.
While that's not a lot, it was enough to cause the overall life expectancy to fall slightly.
That's only happened a few times in the past 50 years. The dip in 1993, for example, was due to high death rates from AIDS, flu, homicide and accidental deaths that year.
Then this:
Most notably, the overall death rate for Americans increased because mortality from heart disease and stroke increased after declining for years. Deaths were also up from Alzheimer's disease, respiratory disease, kidney disease and diabetes. More Americans also died from unintentional injuries and suicide. In all, the decline was driven by increases in deaths from eight of the top 10 leading causes of death in the U.S.
Other than unintentional injuries and suicide, almost every cause of death listed -- Alzheimers, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, etc. -- is directly related to:
  • regular check-ups at the clinic with a health care provider
  • filling prescriptions for prescribed medications
  • taking prescribed medications
  • follow-up with health care provider
In the past year, there has been no major break-through in any major category of illness to have affected the outcome of any of these chronic diseases.

The "obesity finally catching up with us" is a politically correct answer; if that was accurate, the researchers would have sorted that out. At least I would hope they would. The obesity issue has been studied for a decade or longer now.

Longevity is directly related to managing one's chronic conditions and regular monitoring by a health care provider.

In 1993, the dip in longevity was due to AIDS, flu, homicide, and accidental deaths.

If the researchers are unable to find a cause, one would assume homicides and accidental deaths were not the cause. We know that AIDS and flu were not implicated in 2015.

So, you have to ask yourself: what was the one thing that was different in 2015 than in previous years?

The answer is fairly simple. Anne Case and Irma Elo came the closest without suggesting outright the reason.

I'll come back to this later with my two cents worth.

***************************
HINT

This may be a "bridge too far" when trying to explain "longevity issue." If I had more time and was more articulate I might be better able to explain what I'm thinking.

Some years ago I ran across an interesting book that discussed where businesses have their most difficulties or challenges. It's at the seams or at the boundaries where tasks end/start.

Within a "stovepipe" things tend to go pretty well. It's when one "stovepipe" has to interact with another "stovepipe" that problems develop.

See this link: https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:26299/FULLTEXT01.pdf.

In physics, scientists understand and can define the three phases of water very well: the ice phase, the liquid phase, and the gas phase. What is difficult is to explain or define what is going on when water moves from one phase to the next.

What is difficult to explain or define is what happens as matter transitions from one phase to another.

***********************************
ANSWER

To get to the answer -- why the dip in US longevity in this report?

One must first ask the right question: what was different about 2015 than 2014, or 2013, 0r 2012, or  2011?

Again, the "aha" moment from the article:
In 2015, the overall death rate increased from 724.6 per 100,000 people to 733.1 per 100,000.
While that's not a lot, it was enough to cause the overall life expectancy to fall slightly.
That's only happened a few times in the past 50 years. The dip in 1993, for example, was due to high death rates from AIDS, flu, homicide and accidental deaths that year.
So, what was it in 2015 that caused the overall death rate to increase? I'm going to leave out homicide and accidental deaths because, to me, they seem like a bit of red herring; the article did not focus on those two (homicides, accidents); and, there were six other diseases on the list that all had something in common.

In 2015, unlike 1993, there was no one-time "event" to explain the increased death rate. There was no flu epidemic; there was no "new AIDS." One knows that because if there had been, the researchers would have figured that out, pointed that out. But no smoking gun was found.

Six top causes of death all have something in common. They are all chronic. They are all well understood. They are all behavioral-related. They can all be managed well. These are not mysterious diseases: heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, respiratory disease, or kidney disease.

Alzheimer's is the only exception to the others, but it is like the others in that good medical/nursing care will prolong the life of those who suffer from is.

So what changed in 2015 for folks with the common, chronic diseases?

Behavior changed.

It was not ObamaCare per se, but it was related to ObamaCare.

The last leg of the three-legged stool called ObamaCare was the employer mandate. That mandate was delayed until 2015/2016. At the same time, insurance companies were dropping out of the insurance pool. Large groups of people were waking up each day in 2015 finding that their health insurance had been dropped, and they had to look for a new health insurance program. I think folks will remember the stories about folks saying they would pay the IRS penalty rather than buying expensive health care insurance.

That takes us to answer. People with chronic diseases that are well understood, behavioral-related and which can be managed well need to:
  • keep routine visits with their health care providers
  • fill their prescriptions
  • take their medication
  • check into assisted living facilities if necessary
But in 2015, the safety net dropped out from under those with chronic diseases not because of ObamaCare but because of the transition to a new way of providing medical care in this country. 

This takes me back to the "stovepipe" discussion or the "three different phases of matter" discussion.

 During the move from one "stovepipe" of medical care (pre-ObamaCare) to another "stovepipe" of medical care, bad things happened. Losing healthcare insurance for a year or two, and folks quit seeing their doctor, quit filling their prescriptions, quit taking their medications, and failed to get the nursing and medical care that in general they needed and prolonged their lives.

Talking to an internal medicine physician friend who has a very, very successful clinic in southern Los Angeles and Las Vegas, NV, he tells me his biggest challenge is to get patients with chronic disease to take their medication. Period. Dot.

This is not rocket science.

It is very likely the "longevity" issue will remain an issue until US healthcare policy is back to an even keel. With GOP ready to scuttle Obamacare look for continued stores on US longevity dropping.

Job Watch -- December 8, 2016

BR's King Canyon and Teton wells have been updated.

**************************
Job Watch

First time unemployment claims:
  • 258,000, a decrease of 10,000 from previous week
  • four-week moving average: 252,500, up from 251,500 previously
The report is quite bullish at the link.

**********************
The Market

Set to re-structure? Sears 3Q16  loss wider than expected. Link here. Probably not hiring.

Costco profit tops estimates. 

After a huge run-up yesterday, the market is (barely) holding on to its gains, up about 20 points.

NYSE:
  • new highs: 339 -- again, a huge number, including BK, BRK-B, Caterpillar, MDU, Newfield, UNP, 
  • new lows: 6 -- wow. What can I say. Only 6. 
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 Tuna Salad Spread

Random Note On DUCs In The Bakken -- December 8, 2016

Updates

Later, 12:36 p.m.: A question from a reader --  I noticed 4 wells are on your oldest DUC list today.  They are now listed as "NCW."  What exactly does the "W" mean? See this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/12/new-acronym-in-bakken-ncw-december-8.html.


Original Post

DUCs: According to the November, 2016, Director's Cut: estimated wells waiting on completion is 861, down 27 from the end of August to the end of September. 

Updating DUCs:

2Q16: the "oldest" ten DUCs in 2Q16 have not been completed. After not finding one DUC completed among the ten oldest, I quit looking at DUCs in 2Q16.

1Q16: eleven "oldest" DUCs:
  • 30612: Sinclair, still a DUC
  • 31322: EOG, completed; IP = 1,432
  • 31323: EOG, completed; IP = 1,758
  • 29767: Hess, completed; IP = 673 
  • 30988: EOG, still a DUC
  • 30989: EOG, still a DUC
  • 31218: XTO, completed; IP = 594; not a particularly good well yet;
  • 30751: XTO, completed; IP = 912; a nice well;
  • 31468: SM Energy, completed; IP = 140
  • 31308: EOG, still a DUC
  • 30750: XTO, completed; IP = 1,656; a great well
4Q15: ten "oldest" DUCs:
  • 30723: XTO, still a DUC
  • 30722: XTO, still a DUC
  • 30767: Statoil, completed; IP = 1,644
  • 30721: XTO, still a DUC
  • 23790: CLR, still a DUC
  • 30720: XTO: still a DUC
  • 23791: CLR, still a DUC
  • 31037: Statoil, still a DUC
  • 30880: EOG, completed; IP = 423
  • 23793: CLR, still a DUC
Note this well from 1Q16:
  • 31389, 131, Denbury Onshore, CHSU ML13-09SH 05, Cedar Hills, horizontal (but not fracked, of course), South Red River B, cum 42K 10/16

Back To 40 Rigs In North Dakota -- December 8, 2016

Eyes wide shut. MSNBC "Morning Joe" was a huge disappointment this morning -- at least the opening segment, even going so far as to try to link climate change with US life expectancy. No mention of Chicago homicides, overdose epidemic in Miami. The segment was mostly anti-Trump with regard to his cabinet selections and very, very pro-Obama and then concluded with their big story of the day: US life expectancy declines for first time since 1993. Yeah, that was the big headline story for "Morning Joe" and they wondered why Americans voted for Trump. Hellooooooo ..... who's been president for the past eight years? Also, there was no analysis of the reason life expectancy has gone down. According to the article: Rising fatalities from heart disease and stroke, diabetes, drug overdoses, accidents and other conditions. Homicides? Look at the graph. I just can't get too excited. And if one is excited about this, look at the underlying data.


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Worth watching: short segment by Trump-appointee for Homeland Security. When he made this speech to "gold star" families, the general did not mention that he had lost his own son -- a lieutenant -- in Afghanistan. Watch from about 7:00 minutes on. The MSNBC crew were very, very supportive of both generals Mattis and Kelly. 


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Russian Hacking -- US Election

Election fallout: MSNBC "Morning Joe" spent a lot of time on US government concern that Russian hacking may have affected outcome of the election. Maybe something will come of this, maybe not. But one has to ask the question, what is the "end-state" the politicians are looking for with regard to this issue?

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:


12/8/201612/08/201512/08/201412/08/201312/08/2012
Active Rigs4065191193181

RBN Energy: Westward natural gas flows into Texas on the rise.
Of the six interstate pipelines that account for most of the natural gas crossing the Texas/Louisiana state line, two have net flows that are westbound into Texas––something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. By the end of this decade—and maybe far sooner—Texas will be receiving more gas from Louisiana than vice versa, mostly due to planned pipeline reversals aimed at moving more Marcellus/Utica gas to Texas export markets. Today we continue our look at changing Texas gas flows, this time with a focus on the half-dozen most important pipelines at the Texas/Louisiana border.
The natural gas flow patterns that characterized the U.S. energy-delivery sector for the decades preceding the Shale Revolution are gradually being undone, and Texas is more affected than most. The state remains the nation’s largest natural gas producer, and while output from the Eagle Ford, the Barnett Shale and other production areas is down, Texas still produces nearly twice as much gas as it consumes within its borders. But traditional Northeast and Midwest markets for Texas gas are being ceded to Marcellus/Utica producers, and more and more Northeast gas is flowing south/southwest to the western Gulf Coast, drawn by power/industrial demand, new LNG export terminals and rising pipeline-gas exports to Mexico.
We identified the five traditional “exit points” for gas leaving Texas (two through Louisiana, one each through Oklahoma and New Mexico, and one to eastern Mexico), and described how the flows of Texas gas to most other parts of the U.S. (except for the Southwest) have been falling fast. For example, flows through the corridor we define as Exit Point A into southern Louisiana (and from there to the U.S. Southeast) have plummeted 62% (to only 0.5 Bcf/d) in 2016 year to date compared to 2015, and in the past few months flows have actually flipped, with net flows now running west into southeastern Texas, not out of it. Meanwhile, flows of Texas gas into northern Louisiana (and from there to the U.S. Northeast and Midwest) through our Exit Point B corridor have averaged only 3.6 Bcf/d so far in 2016, down 25% from where they stood in 2014 (4.8 Bcf/d).