Friday, November 25, 2016

US Army Corps Of Engineers Closes Standing Rock Protest Camp -- November 25, 2016

Updates

November 27, 2016: in the original post I mentioned that the reservation did not want the camp on reservation property due to "liability" issues. I believe that was correct at one time. Apparently, the reservation is now building a camp on 50 acres south of the Cannonball River on reservation land. A reservation spokesman says the camp will not be ready for at least one month.

November 26, 2016: despite the announcement that the protest camp has been closed, "residents" have said they will not leave. Senators and the governor are demanding that the federal government move in and evict the residents. Obviously there is only one road in, one road out. Preventing fuel, food, etc., from going into the camp and preventing people from returning will eventually close the camp. This is not rocket science. This is rough country; supplies are not going to be brought in over back roads.
 
Original Post
Link here.
The Army Corps of Engineers announced Friday it will be closing a portion of its property north of the Cannonball River, near where the Dakota Access Pipeline protesting camp is located, and establishing a free speech zone south of the river.
In a letter to the leader of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, the USACE announced it will close the portion of corps-managed federal property north of the Cannonball River on Dec. 5, to: "protect the general public from the violent confrontations between protesters and law enforcement officials that have occurred in this area, and to prevent death, illness, or serious injury to inhabitants of encampments due to the harsh North Dakota winter conditions."
It's my understanding the "reservation" does not want the "Protest Camp" on the reservation for "liability" reasons.

Seattle Times article here.

Map of the area prior to the eviction notice. The protest camp is in yellow, "Seven Councils Camp Area."

For the reader who sent me the link:

Goodnight, Irene, Leon Russell

Week 47: November 20, 2016 -- November 26, 2016

Some say the breakeven cost for drilling in the Bakken has dropped to less than $20 / bbl. 

Operations
XTO with two high-IP DUCs
Bakken 2.0: nine DUCs completed; most are high-IP wells; twenty-two permits renewed
Random photos of activity on a Bakken oil pad
Another EOG high-IP well in the Bakken

Natural Gas
Whiting sells two natural gas processing plants in North Dakota

Fracking
An update on a BR well that was re-entered, re-fracked; production jumped from 800 to 20,000 bbls of oil per month

Pipelines
US Army Corps of Engineers closes DAPL protest camp
North Dakota state attorney rules in favor of DAPL 
Sunoco Logistics to acquire DAPL operator
DAPL effect on east coast refineries -- Platts

Bakken economy
CLR's breakeven drops below $40
Williston Wire
Best US states for business: North Dakota drops to #8 from #4 one year earlier 

Miscellaneous
Prince Salman's plan ($72 billion) is a joke
Saudi Arabia needs $74-oil to balance its current reserves
Permian acreage sells for $25,000/acre
North Dakota is home to first mosque in US
US gasoline exports surging

Peak Oil -- Again -- November 25, 2016

This article seemed to "hold water" until I saw that the US was listed as #4 (right between Mexico and Norway) among the top ten countries that would "soon" face "peak oil." This was the comment regarding the United States and oil:
The United States oil reserves are a somewhat controversial topic.
The proven reserves of some 36 billion barrels are the highest in United States history. However, in their Statistical Review of World Energy published in June 2016, BP claims that the figure is actually 55 billion.
To complicate things further, there are large reserves of oil and natural gas in Outer Continental Shelf, estimated between 66.6 and 115.1 billion barrels, which are currently off limits to oil companies due to US legislation.
When all of this is put together, United States have the largest oil reserves in the world, easily surpassing those of Saudi Arabia and Russia and have no business being among the top 10 countries that are running out of oil.
However, we decided to go with the OPEC and US Energy Information Administration numbers, since they represent the only proven amount.
Which, of course, ... 

The article states that the US has ten (10) years of oil left at current production.

This article will be re-posted April 1, 2017, and annually after that for the next 100 years.  Tagged: humor.

Proven, probably, possible -- whatever you want to call it, at $100-oil, North Dakota has at least 55 billion bbls of recoverable crude oil.

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A Note For The Granddaughters
A Little Norwegian Heritage

Don sent me this link: the alter of Viking saint-king, the patron saint of Norway, discovered in Trondheim, Norway.
Experts working for the Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research uncovered the stone foundations of a wooden stave church where Haraldsson was likely enshrined after he was declared a saint in the 11th century.
Olaf Haraldsson, or Olaf II of Norway, is the country’s patron saint.
My father -- your great-grandfather was named after Olaf Haraldsson -- his middle name is "Harald."

My grandfather -- your great-great- grandfather was born in Inderoy, Norway, near Trondheim, and when your great-great-grandfather emigrated from Norway to the US he sailed from Trondheim.

Quiet Day In Bismarck -- No New Permits; Nine New Permits; Five Canceled Permits -- November 25, 2016

Active rigs:


11/25/201611/25/201511/25/201411/25/201311/25/2012
Active Rigs3765185187183

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:
  • XTO (5): five Sonya permits in Williams County
  • EOG (3): three Austin permits, Mountrail County
  • Sinclair: one Highland permit in Mountrail County
Five permits canceled:
  • HRC (3): one King permit and one Pasternak Trust permit, both in Williams County; one Fort Berthold permit in Dunn County
  • Slawson (2): one Atlantis and one Slasher permit, both in Mountrail County
No producing wells (DUCs) reported at completed.

Miscellaneous Energy Notes -- November 25, 2016

Venezuela's oil company delaying $404 million in bond payments; the oil giant's financial woes are worsening. From PennEnergy via Twitter.

US stock market sets new all-time record, with the Dow 30 gaining another 70 points today. WTI down $1.90 to $46.06.

Czech company buys up coal-fired power plants across Europe in bet on recovery of gas prices and capacity payments. From John Kemp via Twitter.

In Line With Decreasing Gasoline Demand, First Time Unemployment Claims Surge 18,000; Not Widely Reported -- November 25, 2016

Earlier this week I posted this graphic, suggesting that "gasoline demand" data was not particularly comforting:

Now, look at the jobs data released this week:
  • first time unemployment claims surged 18,000 from the weeks previous revised level
So:
  • previous week: 233,000 claims
  • most recent week: 251,000 claims
  • 4-week moving average: 251,000; (previous week revised to 253,000)

The Sunoco - ETP Story "Explained" -- November 25, 2016

From FuelFix, the data points:
  • ETP is the principal owner of DAPL; 85% complete; mired in ObamaDelays
  • proposed Sunoco - ETP merger will not be impacted by the project
  • Warren will become the CEO of the merged pipeline business
  • ETP previously acquired Sunoco in 2020; $5 billion deal; but ETP/Sunoco kept as separate businesses -- now simply combined
  • Sunoco is ETP's fourth publicly traded business
  • Sunoco will remain EPT's gas station and convenience store wing
  • ETP president/COO Mackie McCrea will become CCO of the merged Sunoco Logistics entityunder Warren
As the reader who sent me this link, the Sunoco-ETP merger is simply re-arranging the pieces on the chess board. I guess combining one knight and one bishop into a queen.

I noted that Trump / Pence are working to keep Carrier in Indiana and not moving the workforce to Mexico. Okaying the DAPL pipeline once Trump / Pence are in office will be a cakewalk compared to getting Carrier to stay in Indiana.

The Standing Rock Reservation might want to start negotiating in good faith with DAPL to get best deal possible; after January 20, the game changes.

For the archives:

  • ETP
    • ETP: November 1, 2016 - $34.68
    • ETP: November 25, 2016 - $35.34
    • EPT: 52-week range: 18.62 - 43.50
    • ETP: dividend yield - 11.99%
  • SUN
    • SUN: November 1, 2016 - $28.46
    • SUN: November 25, 2016 - $21.80
    • SUN: 52-week range: 21.01 - 40.06
    • SUN: dividend yield - about 15% annualized November 1, 2016
  • ETE
    • ETE: November 1, 2016 - $14.68
    • ETE: November 25, 2016 - $17.30
    • ETE: 52-week range: 4.00 - 19.99- 
    • ETE: dividend yield - 6.49%
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Thanksgiving Leftovers
I think I mentioned the other day that I always keep pasta in the refrigerator -- perfect for one or two people when it is said that it difficult to cook for one. Not true.
So, today, when I saw the left-over ham our daughter gave us after yesterday's Thanksgiving dinner, I thought of the perfect place for a few pieces of the Honey-Baked Ham:

Friday, Day After Thanksgiving -- November 25, 2016

Trump rally continues, T+17: I count twelve (12) days of trading on Wall Street since Tuesday, November 8, 2016, election day. To the best of my knowledge, every day set a new record on the Dow 30, maybe the NASDAQ (I don't follow as closely) except for one day when there was a very, very minor pullback.The Dow 30 has already set new highs today; only a half-day of trading today.

Carrier: Now, today, a huge story continues: VP-elect Pence might be negotiating with Indiana-based Carrier to change its decision to move to Mexico. Some folks are upset with POTUS/VPOTUS getting involved with individual businesses on such matters. I guess they forget history, and they forget this is what Donald Trump campaigned for: keeping jobs in America. Somehow a VPOTUS negotiating deals which might keep jobs in America makes more sense than going to funerals of leaders of foreign countries. I'm looking forward to a visible, active vice president. I really don't recall what Joe Biden's responsibility was, or what he brought to the table, during the Obama transition back in 2008. Joe Biden, 68 years old when he became VP; Mike Pence, 57 years old. In the US House, the average age of Democrat representatives: social security eligible, 64 years of age; GOP representatives: not eligible for social security, 53 years of age.

Auto: Just breaking now, over at SeekingAlpha: US auto sales forecast to set a record in November. The other day there was a poll out showing Americans at their most positive in a decade. What do folks do when they feel positive about the economy? At least one reader suggests the US auto sales is 60% due to Trump":
  • U.S. automobile sales are expected to increase 4.2% to a record 1.37M units in November, according to a forecast from Kelley Blue Book; the previous high for the month was 1.32M units
  • this November includes two extra selling days than last year which provides an obvious boost; a high level of promotions around the Black Friday weekend is also seen as a sales driver
  • KBB's forecast by automaker: General Motors, +8.6% to 249K, Toyota, +2.9% to 195K, Ford , +0.1% to 187K, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, -4.5% to 168K, Honda, +9.1% to 126K, Nissan, +8.3% to 116K, Hyundai-Kia, +7.0% to 113K, Subaru, +15.0% to 53K, Volkswagen, +5.5% to 47.5
  • Tesla Motors , isn't running up the volume quite yet to make the KBB list, but that is expected to change in 2017
US crude oil production, 2015, from EIA:
U.S. field production of crude oil increased in 2015 for the seventh consecutive year, reaching 9.42 million barrels per day (b/d). This was the highest crude oil production level since 1972, based on final production numbers in EIA’s Petroleum Supply Annual. In 2015, production gains were highest in Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and North Dakota, as these three regions accounted for 77% of the U.S. total increase. Although annual production for 2015 grew, monthly U.S. crude oil production has declined since April 2015. Lower oil prices led to slower development activity, and production fell to 8.74 million b/d in August 2016, the latest month for which survey data is available.

Update On OPEC November, 2016, Meeting -- Zeits -- November 25, 2016

From Zeits at SeekingAlpha:
  • Iraq’s statement of support for a 1-million-barrel production cut signals continued success at the negotiation table
  • The chances are high that progress is being made not only on the text of the resolution at the meeting, but also with the implementation mechanism
  • OPEC’s ability to put in place a successful price support policy should not be underestimated
Sauda Arabia pushed a 2% output cut

Keep this in perspective:
  • WTI at about $47 right now
  • breakevens below $25 in the Bakken right now (posted earlier)
  • OPEC has yet to meet; tea leaves suggest OPEC is getting its act together

Antarctic Has Not Shrunk In 100 Years -- November 24, 2016

Link here -- from The [London] Telegraph.
Antarctic sea ice had barely changed from where it was 100 years ago, scientists have discovered, after poring over the logbooks of great polar explorers such as Robert Falcon Scott and Ernest Shackleton.

Experts were concerned that ice at the South Pole had declined significantly since the 1950s, which they feared was driven by man-made climate change.

But new analysis suggests that conditions are now virtually identical to when the Terra Nova and Endurance sailed to the continent in the early 1900s, indicating that declines are part of a natural cycle and not the result of global warming.

The findings demonstrate that the climate of Antarctica fluctuated significantly throughout the 20th century and indicates that sea ice in the Antarctic is much less sensitive to the effects of climate change than that of the Arctic, which has experienced a dramatic decline during the 20th century.

In future the team plans to use data from naval and whaling ships as well as the logs from Amundsen’s expeditions to complete the picture.

Separate research by the British Antarctic Survey also showed that the present day loss of the Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been happening since the mid 20th century and was probably caused by El Nino activity rather than global warming.

Pine Island Glacier, which drains into the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, is retreating and thinning rapidly, but the initial triggering mechanism was unclear. The team looked a sediment cores in the area which showed that an ocean cavity under the ice shelf began to form around 1945, following a pulse of warmth associated with El NiƱo events in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Much, much more at the link. 

Another Good Day On Wall Street? -- November 25, 2016

From The Sidney Herald: Break-evens are lowest right now in Dunn County at $15 West Texas Intermediate, followed by McLean County at $16, McKenzie at $17 and Williams County at $24. Williams County’s break-even rose $1 and was the only county to post an increase.
“Industry efforts have moved to lower and lower break-even prices, so when we get into the third quarter of this year, we can break even on wells under $30 a barrel, meaning all counties in North Dakota are better than break-even for drilling,” Helms said. “Industry is looking at adding a dozen rigs.”
From an October 28, 2016: Whiting says it can make money on $25-oil.

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Obama's legacy: from The  [London] Fiscal Times.  Nothing new; I was just surprised to see it in The Fiscal Times. This is much more interesting: the US Navy using the new F-35B to fire a missile from an Aegis destroyer.

Portland: have protests died down in Portland? I haven't heard much; our daughter says she's not aware of much going on. The Soros money must have run out.

Pre-market futures: still up 44 points. WTI down 43 cents but still above $47.

Rigs:


11/25/201611/25/201511/25/201411/25/201311/25/2012
Active Rigs3765185187183

RBN Energy: understanding lease operating expenses (LOE) and how they drive production.

Bakken Update: adding to the oil glut, part 3, Midland Basin production  increases 262% per well in 2015.
  • We continue to see production increases per well in all major US basin
  • The Midland Basin has thrived using newer well designs, as production per well has increased 262% from 2014 to 2015
  • We expect further growth in the Permian as lower well costs and increasing production provides the possibility of a significant improvement in the coming years