Friday, October 7, 2016

DUCs -- Emergent Group / Rigzone; Liberty Oilfield Services Is Now The Top Pressure Pumper In The Bakken -- October 7, 2016

From Emergent Group/Rigzone:
From the perspective of the pressure pumper who is vying to complete the inventory of DUC wells, there will be impacts to pricing. As noted by the ND Industrial Commission (March 2016), there are about 20 frac crews in the state.
Based on Energent Group data and conversations with Bakken operators, the active number of frac crews is likely around eight currently. The equipment in some cases is still available; however, the crews have been laid off.
Trican, for example, sold the U.S. pressure pumping business to Keane.
Sanjel, once a top pressure pumper in the Bakken, is now bankrupt and sold off their assets to Liberty Oilfield Services. Liberty, like other pressure pumpers, is advancing technology during this downturn to frac wells with reduced budgets and halted drilling programs. Liberty Oilfield Services, the top pressure pumper in the Bakken in 2016, introduced a new “Quiet Fleet” that reduces noise by three times compared to other frac fleets.
With fewer frac crews available, pressure pumpers will likely continue to consolidate and find new ways to pump more stages in less time.
Much, much more at the link, including some great graphics.

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May's Turn To Cook Tonight

One of my favorite dinners: broccoli, asparagus, artichoke, and salmon (with a bit of Lawry Teriyaki coating), house Chardonnay:

Wow! ATT May Suspend All Samsung Galaxy Note 7 Sales -- October 7, 2016

Earlier it was reported that a "safe" replacement for the "unsafe" Samsung Galaxy Note 7 had caught fire on a commercial aircraft.

From Macrumors:
AT&T is considering stopping all sales and replacements of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 due to ongoing safety issues, reports Bloomberg. Citing a person "familiar with the situation," Bloomberg says AT&T may halt sales as soon as today.

AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint have all started allowing customers to exchange their Galaxy Note 7 devices for different smartphones such as the iPhone 7, but AT&T's full sales ban would go one step further, seeing the company cease offering "safe" replacement devices altogether.
Yeah, I know: two consecutive non-Bakken posts on "the Bakken blog." Sorry. My bad.

If you came here for the Bakken keep strolling down, or go to the sidebar at the right. 

Idle Chatter -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 7, 2016

Friday night. Listening to Jerry Jeff Walker and Todd Snider. Reading about brisket in the WSJ. It's nice. Not as nice as it would be in my dad's house in Williston, North Dakota, in the Bakken. But nice.

For the first time in months, May and I have the weekend completely free. Neither of the two older granddaughters have any sports activities this weekend. Soccer was canceled due to the heavy rain today and the water polo folks had their tournament in Houston last weekend, so they have this weekend free.

And then on top of that, I learn that Monday is a holiday for the granddaughters, so I have a 3-day weekend.

There's a coin show in McKinney, TX, tomorrow. I try to go to a coin show once every month to buy ten silver dollars. The coin shows in the area alternate among Grapevine, McKinney, and Plano. Years ago I bought "collectible" US silver dollars ("walking Liberty dollars" and "Morgan silver dollars") but lost interest long ago. Now I buy shiny new silver dollars from Canada, or South Africa, or Australia or China. As someone said, we live in a magpie culture.

I had an epiphany earlier today. I assume others have had the same epiphany but a brief google search wasn't helpful.

I'm reading a great book, Helen of Troy: The Story Behind The Most Beautiful Woman in the World by Bettany Hughes, c. 2005.

I probably know as much about the Iliad and the Odyssey as the next guy at the bar, but I never really gave this much thought, until today. This truly made my day. In her book, on page 220:
The Trojan Horse is mentioned only once in the Odyssey and does not feature at all in the Iliad; the fullest account of it is given by Virgil in the Aeneid. The earlier poem  (the Iliad) terminates with the death of Hector before Troy is sacked; however, with the help of Greek vase paintings, plays, and the snatches of the lost epics that resurface in later works of antiquity, we can see the drama to its conclusion.
And then on page 222:
“And what of Paris? Neither the Iliad nor the Odyssey graces his death with a single line. We hear from the Little Iliad that he is killed by an arrow ….”
Wow. The Iliad is very, very long, and very, very important, setting the stage for the climax, the sacking of Troy, but Homer does not tell that story. We have the Odyssey, which is important, but it’s a “comic book” story whereas the Iliad was a serious drama. Why would Homer not “do” the sacking of Troy? This would be like Quentin Tarantino writing the first half of Kill Bill 2, filming it, and releasing it, but never completing the second half.

The last big scene in the Iliad was the killing of Hector, the big brother of Paris -- Paris was the guy who "kidnapped" Helen which led to the Trojan War. Killing Hector in the Iliad was the cliff-hanger. The analogy is "who shot J.R.?" -- the huge cliff-hanger in Dallas.

This simply does not make sense, that Homer would compose an epic poem, the Iliad, leading up to the sacking of Troy, and the cliff-hanger, the killing of Hector. And then no "sacking of Troy." The next thing we get is the Greeks sailing home, having successfully sacked Troy.

We know the Trojan horse and the sacking of Troy, as Bettany Hughes says, through other sources, but that misses the point. Homer recites two long epic poems, but doesn't recite the biggest story of all, the "Sacking of Troy." Give me a break.

I am absolutely convinced, Homer wrote a trilogy. Poets and authors don't write duologies; they write trilogies. Even the Star Wars epic was a series of three trilogies (nine parts altogether). Even Lord of the Rings was artificially made into a trilogy.

I am absolutely convinced we are missing Homer's second book of the trilogy: Iliad, Equus (Hippos), Odyssey.

So, I'm in a great mood.

I don’t get it. I think Homer “wrote” a trilogy and we’re missing the second volume.

Again, this simply does not make sense, the Iliad and the Odyssey without Equus (Hippos).

Mr Lonely, Bobby Vinton
For all the heroes serving overseas tonight.

Week 40: October 2, 2016 -- October 8, 2016

Operations
Several families of wells were updated, including:
"High-intensity completions" triples EURs for Fort Berthold wells in the Bakken -- Enerplus
Observation: a number of "great" Whiting wells were taken off-line for the month of August, 2016

Fracking
A random look at a high-proppant Oasis well, 20 million lbs of sand
Fracking in the Bakken: signs of life?

DUCs
RBN Energy takes a look at DUCs in all the major US plays 
Can all DUCs be completed before the two-year deadline?

Natural Gas
Three more natural gas processing plants coming on line in North Dakota before end of year

Bakken Economy
Dead Man's Hand Poker Tournament in Williston
Construction in Watford City (I believe I also posted this last week as a top story)
Update on North Dakota's Legacy Fund
Killdeer bypass completed

Miscellaneous
WTI pushes over $50 for first time in a long time
The Utica and Marcellus continue to defy skeptics (and confound experts)
$50 oil is not enough to "save" Saudi Arabia; it simply slows the pace of deterioration
Small oil company discovers elephant oil field in the Arctic, off Alaska's North Slope
US propane exports now the 2nd largest US petroleum product export
Williston's Wal-Mart may lead company in annual nationwide fundraising campaign
Update on wind farm projects in western North Dakota
Western North Dakota honey
MRO sells assets in west Texas, New Mexico, but not in North Dakota
Filloon opines on the Saudi announcement it is agreeable to a "cut"

North-Central Montana Province

Geologic description.

News

October 7, 2016; Obama administration unilaterally pulls lease that oil company has had for 33 years; federal judge to rule on legality of Obama's action -- AP
  • lease-holder Solenex LLC has held the lease for 33 years but has not drilled because of numerous bureaucratic delays with the US departments of Interior and Agriculture
  • lease was blocked; lease-holder wants the lease re-instated; 6,200 acre energy lease; canceled by the Obama administration in March
  • Obama administration wants federal judge to uphold its decision to cancel the lease
  • the lease is near Glacier National Park and the Blackfeet Indian Reservation
  • Obama says the 1982 lease was improperly issued by the government because the environmental impact study (AIS) did not consider effects of drilling on the tribes
  • the lease is within a 165,000-acre deemed by the government to be a traditional cultural district of the Blackfoot tribes
  • it is the site of the creation story for the Blackfoot tribes of southern Canada and the Blackfeet Nation of Montana
  • it appears the "cultural district" was established after the lease was obtained, and was simply a pretext to prevent drilling

Statoil's Skarston Wells Have Been Updated -- It Appears All Skarston Wells Back On Line -- October 7, 2016

Link here to the Skarston wells.

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Friday's Daily Activity Report

It appears that the Friday NDIC daily activity report was not posted.

Latest Forecast, 3Q16: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016

Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016, dynamic link:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5, 2016.
The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.28 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to –0.1 percent following this morning's employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The Trainwreck
The Chicago Tribune's View

Critics warned people not to hop aboard, that disaster was inevitable. But the president, his allies in Congress and lots of big insurance companies assured everyone that, even though they couldn't see the blueprints, they had, in fact, designed an unsinkable ship of government-run health care.

Now, billions of dollars and 17 failed co-ops later (actually 18, now, from an original 23), the captain and crew of USS Obamacare are demanding that everyone stay below-deck and continue bailing out their sinking ship and the insurance companies taking on more and more red ink in Obamacare exchanges.
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New Jersey To Increase State Tax On Gasoline

Update

Later, 6:14 p.m. Central Time: there's a lot more to this bill than simply an increase in oil prices. What little I know of it suggests this is a very, very good bill. It will raise $32 billion for highway infrastructure for the state of New Jersey over the course of 8 years, and half of that will come from the US government on a 1-for-1 matching grant. That is huge.

In addition, it eliminates New Jersey's "death tax." Right now, New Jersey has an estate tax that kicks in at a measly $625,000. That "death tax" is eliminated in this bill.

Finally, let's see what this costs an average commuter in New Jersey:
  • annual mileage: 20,000 miles
  • average mpg: 30 mpg
  • gallons of gasoline/year: 750 gallons (rounded up generously)
  • additional cost in gasoline tax: $0.23 x 750 = $175/year or $3.50/week -- about the cost of a Starbucks coffee one day each week on the commute 
I don't have a dog in this fight, but it seems any whining over this increased gasoline tax is ill-placed, considering that it simply brings New Jersey in line with other states' gasoline tax. 

Original Post
 
"Hikes it 23 cents." 

From Tax Foundation, July, 2015, state gasoline tax rates among the Central Atlantic States, New Jersey was the lowest:
  • Massachusetts: 26.5 cents
  • Rhode Island: 34 cents
  • Connecticut: 40.86 cents
  • New Jersey: 14.5 cents
  • Delaware: 23 cents
  • Maryland: 32.1 cents
  • DC: 23.5 cents
New Jersey had the 49th lowest gasoline tax nationwide.
  • Alaska, at 12.25 cents had the lowest state tax among all US states.
  • Pennsylvania, at 51.6 cents was the highest. 

The Oasis Hysted Wells In Camp Oil Field -- October 7, 2016

Updates

May 11, 2019: production numbers updated; it seems these wells should have done better; wait for re-work; re-fracks.

Original Post

Done quickly; not proofread; there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The Hysted wells:
  • 31134, 1,359, Oasis, Hysted 5200 11-30 6B, Camp, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t3/16; cum 191K 3/19;
  • 31133, 1,547, Oasis, Hysted 5200 11-30 7T, Camp, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t3/16; cum 182K 3/19;
  • 31132, 2,157, Oasis, Hysted 5200 11-30 8B, Camp, 36 stages, 3.2 million lbs, t3/16; cum 241K 3/19;
  • 31131, 1,206, Oasis, Hysted 5200 11-30 9T, Camp, 36 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t3/16; cum 141K 3/19;
  • 31122, 811, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12030 11T, Camp, t4/16; cum 109K 3/19;
  • 31121, 1,374, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 10B, Camp 36 stages, 3.0 million lbs, t4/16; cum 222K 3/19;
  • 30881, 629, Oasis, Hysted 5201 14-25TX, Camp, 36 stages, 4 .1 million lbs, 4 sections, t3/16; cum 154K 3/19;
  • 26833, 1,613, Oasis, Hysted 5200 14-30 3T2, Camp, 2nd Bench Three Forks; API 33-053-05419; t41/4; cum 99K 3/19;
  • 26130, 3,396, Oasis, Hysted 5200 14-30 2B, Camp, t3/14; cum 304K 3/19;
  • 19844, 1,760, Oasis, Hysted 5200 44-19H, Camp cased hole, 4.1 million lbs, t7/11; cum 276K 3/19;
Map of the general area:



From the file report for #26833:
  • the Three Forks Formation (Devonian) was reached at 10,982 feet
  • the Three Forks first claystone unit was reached at 11,038 feet
  • the Three Forks second bench (Devonian) was reached at 11,080 feet
  • the target zone of the Three Forks was to be drilled in a predominately dolomite thirteen foot zone beginning 13 feet into the Three Forks second bench
  • low gas pressures in the target zone, with background ranging from 100 to 150 units; connection peaks of 170 to 330 units
From the file report for #26130:
  • the Upper Bakken Shale member (Mississippian-Bakken Formation) was drilled at 10,952 feet; hydrocarbon in this interval reached a maximum of 572 units with a down time gas of 5,931 units
  • the Bakken Middle Member (Mississippian-Devonian) was reached at 11,006 feet; 
  • the target zone of the middle Bakken was to be drilled in a predominately silty sandstone eleven foot zone beginning 14 feet into the middle Bakken
  • gas shows were very high, with trip gases of 5,268; 6,046; 4,666; and 4,621 units respectively
  • opened 10,131' of potentially productive reservoir rock
From the file report of #19844:
  • the third well in a series of wells by Oasis targeting the Three Forks in this area
  • the Bakken Formation was penetrated at 10,827 feet
  • the Middle Bakken at 10,855 feet; 
  • the Lower Bakken Shale was penetrated at 10,922 feet, geology similar to Upper Bakken Shale
  • true thicknesses for the Bakken members are as follows: Upper Bakken, 19 feet; middle Bakken, 40 feet; and, the Lower Bakken Shale, 12 feet
  • the Three Forks Formation was drilled at 10,945 feet
  • background gas generally low, peaking at 739 units; trip gas as high as 774 units
  • well bore maintained with the 25-foot thick target interval for 79% of the total exposed well bore

High-Intensity Fracks; Look At These Fracks; High-Proppant Fracks -- October 7, 2016

By pad:
List not all inclusive (generally: either 50+ stages, and/or 10+ million lbs proppant)
  • 33489, 839, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 3H, Squires, 50 stages; 15 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 25 days;  
  • 33490, 839, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 4H, Squires, 50 stages, 15 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 25 days; 
  • 33488, 845, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 2H, Squires, 50 stages, 15.4 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 23 days; producing, 
  • 32599, 2,386, WPX, Ruby Parshall, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 61 stages, 20 million lbs, t9/17; cum 22K over 21 days; 
  • 33517, 828, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-7H, Squires, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/17; cum --  
  • 33518, 3,472, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-8H, Squires, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/17; cum --
  • 27391, 998, EOG, Parshall 68-1820H, Parshall, 52 stages; 14.6 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 73K 5/17; 
  • 28402, 428, EOG, Parshall 30-1820H, Parshall, 40 stages; 10.4 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 86K 5/17; 
  • 28404, 1,399, EOG, Parshall 31-1820H, Parshall, 39 stages; 10.3 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 74K 5/17;
  • 28800, 1,386, CLR, Florida Federal 4-11H1, Camp, 45 stages, 22 million lbs, t3/17; cum 63K 4/17; 
  • 31754, 762, CLR, Maryland 3-16H, Catwalk, 38 stages, 17.3 million lbs, t12/16; cum 74K 4/17; 
  • 31755, 213, CLR, Maryland 4-16H1, Catwalk, Three Forks 1, 38 stages, 11.4 million lbs, t12/16; cum 25K 4/17; 
  • 26430, 1,002, WPX, Beaks 36-35HX, Mandaree, Three Forks, 61 stages, 6.1 million lbs; t4/17; cum 17K 4/17; 
  • 32017, 901, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 12B, Siverston, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 144K 4/17;32016, 1,554, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 11T, Sivertson, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 144K 4/17; 
  •  26432, 1,388, WPX, Beaks 36-35HA, Mandaree, 61 stages, 9.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 23K 4/17 (27 days), (#19289) 
  • 32438, 1,027, Nine Point Energy (formerly Triangle Petroleum), Little Muddy 17H, Williston, 31 stages, 10 million lbs; TD, 20,940 feet; spud date, July 20, 2016; TD, August 3, 2016, t1/17; cum 55K 4/17;  
  • 32820, 602, WPX, Beaks 36-35HW, Mandaree, Three Forks, 61 stages, 6.9 million lbs, t4/17 cum -- , (#19289 -- significant jump, 4/17)
  • 32209, 1,774, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 9B, Sivertson, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t12/16; cum 153K 4/17;
  • 31756, 1,163, CLR, Maryland 5-16H, Catwalk, 38 stages, 17 million lbs; TD, 23,027 feet, t12/16; cum 80K 4/17;
  • 32512, 1,505, EOG, Mandaree 30-0706H, Squaw Creek, 37 stages, 17 million lbs sand; TD, 20,495 feet, t12/16; cum 157K 4/17; (19004)
  • 32513, 1,910, EOG, Mandaree 24-0706H, Squaw Creek, 44 stages, 28 million lbs sand; TD, 20,483 feet, t12/16; cum 228K 4/17; 19004)
  • 28435, 871, EOG, Fertile 55-0333H, Parshall, Fertile 55-0333H, frack data not yet available, t12/16; cum 60K 4/17;
  • 32514, 1,355, EOG, Mandaree 31-0706H, Squaw Creek, 46 stages, 29 million lbs; TD, 20,914 feet, t12/16; cum 247K 4/16; (19004)
  • 32401, 1,260, QEP, Tipi V 3-13-12BH, Spotted Horn, t11/16; cum 114K 2/17;
  • 32402, 1,140, QEP, Tipi V 2-13-12TH, Spotted Horn, Three Forks, 54 stages, 9.7 million lbs, t11/16; cum 55K 2/17;
  • 32403, 1,988, QEP, Tipi V 4-13-12BH, Spotted Horn, t12/16; cum 135K 2/17;
  • 32404, 1,189, QEP, Tipi V 3-13-12T2H, Spotted Horn, Three Forks second bench, 51 stages, 9.6 stages, t11/16; cum 54K 2/17;
  • 32405, 707, QEP, Tipi V 5-13-12BH, Spotted Horn, middle Bakken, 51 stages, 10 million lbs, t11/16; cum 61K 2/17;
  • 32406, see below, QEP, Tipi V 5-13-12TF, Spotted Horn, producing
  •  30280, 3,327, BR, Merton 21-15TFH, North Fork, 4 sections, 26 stages; 11.7 million lbs, t9/16; cum 93K 2/17;
  • 31112, 2,401, Whiting, Chameleon State 31-16-1H, Banks, 50 stages; 15.3 million lbs; t10/16; cum 101K 2/17; (19859, 22621); see also this link; and this link;
  •  32560, 1,385, Whiting, Flatland 43-9-2H, Banks, 35 stages, 7.5 million lbs, t10/16; cum 100K 2/17; 
  • 31983, 708, EOG, Austin 440-2326H, Parshall, 34 stages, 13.31 million lbs; t5/16; cum 101K 2/17;
  • 31982, 689, EOG, Austin 441-2326H, Parshall, 35 stages, 13.55 million lbs, t5/16; cum 161K 2/17;
  • the QEP KDM wells reported in March, 2017
  • 32329, 2,861 (NDIC has a typo), Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/16; cum 156K 1/17;
  • Helsingborg pad;
  • 31670, 2,063, CLR, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages, 14 million lbs, t8/16; cum 120K 12/16; 
  • 30505, 1,052, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-4, Blue Buttes, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t1/17; cum 14K over 10 days;
  • 30506, 893, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-5, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, Blue Buttes, t1/17; cum 7K over 5 days;  
  • 30504, 1,136, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-3, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t12/16; cum 23K over 16 days;  
  • 27595, 920, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, 50 stages; 4.9 million lbs, t11/16; cum 16K 12/16;
  • 31515, 150, CLR, Topeak 9-12H1, Brooklyn, 30 stages; 8.9 million lbs, t8/16; cum 23K 12/16; 
  • the BR Gudmunson wells in Elidah oil field; also note the number of stages from one well to another;
  • 31686, 1,957, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H, Stockyard Creek, 40 stages, 10.6 million lbs, Whiting's P Bibler wells are tracked here, t8/16; cum 99K 11/16;   
  • 31892, 1,717, Hess, BB-Sivertson-151-95-2019H-6, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t11/16; cum --
  • 31893, 1,523, Hess, BB-Siverston-151-95-2019H-7, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t12/16; cum --
  • 29693, 2,471, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H, Epping, 39 stages, 10 million lbs, t7/16; cum 131K 10/16;
  • 31891, 1,506, Hess, BB-Siverston-LS-151-95-2019H-1, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t12/16; cum --
  • 31280, 1,612, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-5, Alkali Creek, Three Forks, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t10/16; cum 14K after 8 days; 
  • 31281, 746, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-6, Alkali Creek, middle Bakken, 57 stages, 4 million lbs, t11/16; cum 3K after 3 days; 
  • 31919, 1,413, Oasis, Johnsrud Federal 5198 11-18 3BX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, 50 stages, 20 million lbs, t6/16; cum 126K 10/16;
  •  32340, 2,010, Whiting, Carscallen31-14-4H, Truax, 45 stages, 13.6 million lbs, t7/16; cum 140K 10/16;
  •  32417, 257, EOG, Austin 421-2821H,  Parshall, 44 stages; 17 million lbs, t6/16; cum 125K 10/16; 32418, 681, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall, 42 stages, 16 million lbs, t6/16; cum 151K 10/16; 
  • 32419, 678, EOG, Austin 423-2821H, Parshall, 32 stages, 12 million lbs; t6/16; cum 115K 10/16; 
  • 24072, 342, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Holmes 8-5-158N-100W, Winner, TD = 19,842 feet, 70 stages, 8.5 million lbs, t3/15; cum 89K 9/16; [a pretty good considering its location]
  • 31247, 1,613, EOG, West Clark 103-0136H, Clarks Creek, 37 stages, 21.1 million lbs, s12/10/15; TD, 12/20/15; TVD, 10,552 feet; TD, 17,965 feet; again, only a 1.5 section lateral; 960-acre spacing; middle Bakken;  
  • 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 132K 9/16;
  •  31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 21 million lbs, t5/16; cum 86K 9/16; drilling unit: 960 acres; TVD around 10,600 feet; TD, 18,185 feet; total lateral, 7,338 feet; target total, 7,338 feet (100%); KOP December 4, 2015; cease drilling December 8, 2015; from surface, well was sited in southwest corner of section 1-151-95; proceeded northeast and then northnortheast under section 1-151-95, ending just short of the halfway mark in section 36-151-95W (according to diagram on page 29 -- but it obviously ended in section 36-152-95).
  • 31057, 3,490, MRO, Chamaine USA 14-35TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages, 12 million lbs, t6/16; cum 131K 8/16 after just three months;
  • 31058, 3,661, MRO, Clarks Creek USA 14-35H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages, 18 million lbs, t5/16; cum 143K 8/16; after just 3.5 months;
  • 31061, 2,942, MRO, Juanita USA 13-35H, Antelope, Sanish, 40 stages, 12 million lbs, t7/16; cum 115K after just 2.5 months;
  • 29443, 1,442, WPX, Olive Mae 7-8-9HW, Van Hook, 68 stages, 15 million lbs, t10/15; cum 81K 1/16; 
  • 27414, 2,712, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-6H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages, 6.7 million lbs/ t4/16; cum 22K after 15 days; distance between closest fracture initiation point and abandoned "5H" is 654 feet
  • 31119, 2,149, Oasis, Lefty 5200 12-30 7B, Camp, 50 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t4/16; cum 100K 8/16;
  •  27412, 3,745, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-7H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages; 6.7 million lbs, t4/16; cum 35K after 16 days;
  • 31313, 2,204, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-2, Antelope, Sanish, t9/16; cum -- 
  • 31120, 907, Oasis, Left 5200 12-30 8T, Camp. 50 stages, 8.9 million lbs, t4/16; cum 36K 8/16; 
  • 31188, 3,752, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-25B-36-8H, Eagle Nest, 56 stages, 6.7 million lbs, t4/16; cum 38K 8/16; no production since the first 18 days; last produced 5/16; 
  • 28330, 1,716, CLR, Salers Federal 3-27H, 50 stages; 19 million lbs; 14 days spud to TD, t10/14; cum 383K 8/16;
  • 31121, 1,374, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 10B, Camp, 36 stages, 20 million lbs, t4/16; cum 67K 8/16; 
  • 30286, 1,974, EOG, Riverview 102-32H, 23 stages, 13 million lbs, t6/15; cum 419K 8/16; 320-acre spacing; short lateral  
  • 31060, 3,473, MRO, Heather USA 13-35TFH, 44 stages, 12 million lbs, t5/16; cum 123K 8/16;
  • 31061, 2,942, MRO, Juanita USA 13-35H, 40 stages, 12 million lbs, t7/16; cum 115K 8/16; 

  • Original Post
    Coming off today's confidential list, look at the amount of proppant Oasis used in this 36-stage frack:
    • 31121, 1,374, Oasis, Hysted 5200 12-30 10B, Camp, 36 stages, 20 million lbs, t4/16; cum 67K 8/16; 
    If the graphic is too small to read, click on it. It will come up in a new window and you can zoom in as much as you want.
     
    And then look at the number of stages EOG used in this frack:
    • 32320, 583, EOG, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-8, Alkali Creek, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t9/16; cum 4K over first 5 days;
    For newbies:

    The number of frack stages has increased several-fold over the past couple of years, and the "standard" frack in the Bakken now seems to be between 24 and 36 stages, but there is more talk of more 50-stage fracks (Filloon has several articles on this; see "Filloon" tag at bottom of blog.)

    When the boom began, most fracks were well below one million lbs proppant total (sand, ceramic, or some combination) but began to increase over time. BEXP (now Statoil) seemed to jump to much larger amounts of proppant early in the game, routinely going to 4 million pounds to frack a single well.

    Then EOG pushed the envelope with testing new fracks using between 10 million and 20 million lbs of sand. And remember: EOG wells were generally one mile long (short laterals, one section) vs the more common two-mile laterals (long laterals, two section horizontals) being drilled by most other operators.

    I think this is the first time I've seen Oasis using this much proppant. I check very few file reports so I assume there are several other examples.

    I have not tracked fracks based on proppant amount, but if I see some high-proppant fracks (greater than 8 million lbs) I will post them here. 

    Now for investors ... oh, the disclaimer ... this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here. This is not an investment site. Okay, back to what I was going to say. For investors:
    • Filloon has had two articles over at SeekingAlpha with this title: the use of fracking sand will go hyperbolic
    • there are upwards of 900 wells in the Bakken waiting to be fracked (similar numbers in Texas)
    • operators are increasing the amount of sand being used per frack
    This does not seem to require a degree in rocket science to consider the opportunities. But, then what do I know?

EVs Sales For September, 2016

BP To Challenge State Oil Stations In India

Reuters, data points:
  • India with rising demand for gasoil and gasoline in the world's fastest growing major economy
  • BP will open 3,500 fuel stations in India
  • BP will become the second overseas firm drawn to rising demand (the other: RoyalDutch Shell)
  • only foreign firms allowed in India: RoyalDutch Shell and BP  
  • India is replacing China as the driver of global oil demand growth
  • IEA: India will account for one-fourth of global energy by 2040
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EV Sales -- September

We sort of reported the September automobile sales earlier; generally not so good. EVs sales numbers come out about a week later. Here they are for September (dynamic link):
  • Tesla Model S had its best month ever, jumping from 3,125 in August, to 4,350 delivered in September
  • Tesla Model X deliveries jumped from 1,850 in August, to 3,200, in September, it's best report this year
  • Chevrolt Volt was flat at 2,031 vehicles sold; pretty strong considering the Bolt comes out this year with range well beyond what Tesla will offer
  • Ford Fusion Energi was up a bit to 1,652
  • Nissan Leaf was up a bit to 1,316
  • the BMW i3 must be phasing out, coming to the end of a cycle: it plummed from 1,013 to 391
  • nothing else was worth reporting, all other makes/models selling below 500 units with two exceptions: Ford C-Max Energi (689) and VW e-Golf (529)
Totals, all makes models, US only:
  • July: 13,464
  • August: 14,882
  • September: 16,974
It looks like it will be a race between Tesla and Chevrolet Bolt in the US.  I give the edge to the Bolt: range, price, dealers, marketing, GM Chevrolet brand name.

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Popovich Takes Up Where Phil Jackson Left Off

After living thirteen years in San Antonio, my heart is still with the Spurs.

Today, of all things, there is a full page article on the "NBA's most thoughtful team."
Gregg Popovich came to San Antonio Spurs training camp this year prepared with some questions for his players. Such as: Who were the explorers pushing west in early America? What is the fourth holy city of Islam? And where is one in danger of being attacked by wombats?
This is not what most NBA teams talk about. It’s not what employees in a typical office talk about. But their boss is the one who demands the Spurs broach these topics and more serious ones at their place of work.
Popovich has been quizzing the Spurs on current events and world history for years. Now he wants them to engage more than ever. So this season, for the first time, he also plans to track which players know the most about everything other than basketball.
“What’s cool is that everybody looks at that person, like: How do you know that?” Popovich said. “Then you walk away and you watch and two or three guys are talking over here and two or three are talking over there. Or if I say something about Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or the political system, they talk about it. It brings them together. There’s a purpose to it—and it’s fun for me.”

McDonald's Discovers Whataburger -- October 7, 2016

This is really cool. My wife spotted it. I completely missed it when posting the McDonald's story the other day. I see why I missed it. This part was not in the on-line edition. From the print edition of The WSJ article:
McDonald's is testing customizable burger menus in some markets, allowing dinners to select the type of meet, bun and toppings they want from a self-order kiosk and then sit down and wait for an employee to deliver the food to their table. Options include guacamole, grilled onion or bacon. 
That's exactly how Whataburger does things -- except no kiosk. One actually talks to a real person who speaks perfect English, often with a Texas drawl. One orders a hamburger to order, and then you take your drink and find your table. A few minutes later, a Whataburger employee brings you your order along with condiments, and sometimes a complimentary surprise.

Remember this from January 1, 2016?


Head-to-head, Whataburger beat In 'N'Out. (And, of course, after that, there is no competition, though Five Guys would be tough head-to-head.) [The race came down to Five Guys vs Whataburger. Wow. Wow. Wow.]

The Upper Devonian

Upper Devonian -- background. (If the link breaks, the article is archived here.)

Upper Devonian Burket / Geneseo Shale

NEWS

Marcellus and Utica continue to defy the skeptics

Another Dismal Jobs Report, Though Bloomberg Spins It Again -- Remember The Magic Numbers; Unemployment Ticks Up -- October 7, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: this was announced last week (October 6) but I missed it; it must have really been buried. 
The number of announced layoffs by U.S.-based companies rose in September to the highest level in two months.
Employers announced plans to cut 44,324 jobs last month, a 38 percent increase from August, when total job cuts of 32,2188 fell to lowest total since May.
September's was the highest monthly total since July, when 45,346 layoffs were announced.
Despite the monthly rise, September's total was 25 percent below the announced job cuts a year ago.
The biggest job cutter last month was the education sector, rising by 363 percent to 8,671.
Fueling the cuts was the collapse of for-profit college ITT Technical Institute, which sustained 8,000 job losses.
Cuts in the computer industry in September totaled 4,152 jobs. The sector's year-to-date layoffs were second only to the energy sector, which announced 98,733 cuts for the nine-month period.
October 8, 2016: disappointing 156,000 jobs added in September -- USA Today. Honest analysis unlike Bloomberg. To the best of my knowledge, USA Today is the only major news outlet that noted this is the consecutive month in which the jobs number was disappointing.
Payroll growth was disappointing for a second straight month in September as employers added 156,000 jobs, which raised questions about the health of an economy that was expected to perk up from a prolonged slump in the second half of the year.
Reported last month: the Goldilocks number. Jobs created in August much less than forecast; expectations had been for 180,000. In fact, only 151,000 jobs were added, well below the magic number of 200,000 necessary for economy growth. Unemployment unchanged from a revised upward revision one month earlier.

Later, 2:58 p.m. Central Time: stock market drops after jobs report -- New York Times. That was the headline. And then this lede:
Suppliers of basic materials are leading the stock market lower in afternoon trading Friday after a solid report on hiring in the U.S. last month. [I can't make this stuff up.]
Later, 11:48 a.m. Central Time: wow, who wrote this report "September jobs report close to "Goldilocks" number." Wow. Here it is -- the Fed's Fischer. Talk about spin. Worthless. I guess that's why the market is down 101 points -- the jobless number was so incredibly great. LOL. Folks give Matt Drudge a lot of grief, but it certainly seems he has not lost touch with middle class Americans.

Later, 10:14 a.m. Central Time: as predicted, the Bloomberg spin countered. "US created lower-than-expected 56,000 jobs in September." -- CNBC. Almost 100 million Americans not in workforce; unemployment ticks up to 5.0%. Obama spinmeisters thrilled with report -- within their "broad" range of expectations. Their phrase, not mine - at the video at the CNBC-linked story.

Later, 10:11 a.m. Central Time: I predicted this screenshot in the original post (see original post below). Screenshot from the most quoted internet news aggregator in the universe:

 
Original Post
 
The magic number: < 200,000 jobs = stagnant economy.

Analysts forecast / predicted: 172,000 increase.

The number: 167,000.

The number is well below what analysts forecast, and the forecast was way below what was needed to exceed 200,000. Anything below 200,000 = economic stagnation.

However Bloomberg spins it, it's not a good report. We'll see those stories later today. Meanwhile, buried in the second paragraph it was noted that US unemployment rate actually increased to 5%.

Bloomberg would suggest that the rate rose because more folks went back into the labor market, which, of course, was not true. Again, anything less than 200,000 = economic stagnation, and the forecast was below that, and the actual number was below the forecast.

Wow.

Okay, got that out of my system. Time to move on.

Oh, one more thing: slowest recovery since US records began: CNN.

For the archives: Jack Welch's debunked jobs conspiracy, four years later. The article failed to mention, that in fact, the US government did indeed falsify the numbers -- see below.

When you read that article on Jack Welch remember this post from January 22, 2015:
Over the two years that I had been posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.
In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington. 
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated. 
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/7/201610/07/201510/07/201410/07/201310/07/2012
Active Rigs3367192182190
 
RBN Energy: update on DUCs.
The inventory of drilled-and-uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. Lower 48 grew by nearly 1,900 between the months just before oil prices and rig counts collapsed and early 2016—a 50% increase in a roughly two-year period, according to new DUCs data in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) September Drilling Productivity Report (DPR—See the DPR DUC report here.).
Since January’s peak of nearly 5,600 DUCs, producers have been working down the national inventory of DUCs, with the DPR showing the overall count closer to 5,000 as of August (2016) ––but that is still up more than 1,300 from the December EIA’s 2013 baseline. This incremental growth in the number of “dormant” wells is key to understanding and predicting how long production can remain supported or grow in a low-rig count environment. Moreover, there are regional differences in the DUCs inventory counts and trends that provide critical insights on how various market factors are impacting drilling activity. Today, we walk through the EIA DUCs data for each of the producing regions.
Starting from the top left graph in Figure 1—the Bakken—the EIA DUCs spreadsheet estimates the Bakken carried 569 DUCs in December 2013. The inventory since then has been somewhat volatile but generally grew by nearly 300 (53%) to a peak of 866 DUCs in April 2016. Since then, DUCs in the Bakken have come down somewhat from that peak to near 800, but are still over 200 higher than in December 2013.
NDIC reported the number of DUCs in North Dakota in excess of 900, well above the peak the EIA reported.

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SandRidge Emerges From Bankruptcy

Data links:
  • Oklahoma-based company
  • $525 million in total liquidity
  • common stock once again listed on the NYSE
  • new board of directors
  • went into bankruptcy with more than $4 billion in debt
  • about $3.7 billion of that debt has been eliminated
  • CEO: James Bennett
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Fact-Checking The Fact-Checkers

Top story in Los Angeles Times today, the headline: "So, you think Obamacare is a disaster? Here's how California is proving you wrong."

I did not read the article, the headline was enough for me. Now let's check a few stories on ObamaCare in California -- from the Los Angeles Times and other sources -- fact-checking the fact-checkers.

California ObamaCare rates to rise 13% in 2017, more than three times the increase of last two years -- July 19, 2016

Rate shock: In California, Obamacare to increase individual health insurance premiums by 64 - 146% -- May 30, 2013.

Doctors boycotting California's Obacare exchanges -- December 6, 2013

So, when ObamaCare was first introduced in California, rates rose as much as 146% and physicians left the exchanges. [If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor -- not if your doctor leaves the exchange.]  And now, when the LA Times says California Obamacare is doing just fine, rates are rising three times the increase of last two years.

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The Market

Mid-day trading: the market must not have liked that dismal jobs report, nor the fact that it's being reported that President Obama increase US debt by $9 trillion during his short stay in the White House. The Dow 30 is down 101 points. NYSE:
  • new highs: 48  
  • new lows: 15