Wednesday, November 2, 2016

US Posts Largest Weekly Surge In Crude Oil Stocks In 34 Years -- You Can't Get Those Wells Turned On Overnight -- Tim Rezvan, Crude Oil Analyst, Mizuho Securities -- November 2, 2016


Later, 7:48 p.m. Central Time: from a reader --
I don't know about production, but I just checked imports and it looks like we went from the least imports in 16 months two weeks ago to the most in more than 4 years this week (Oct 28) can check me on that, my eyes are pretty tired and i may have missed something:
Here's what I think happened...all the oil tankers heading to the US in mid-October stayed offshore and out of the Gulf when hurricane Matthew was around, and it looks like they all finally arrived last week. 
The reader is probably correct. John Kemp, Reuters analyst, may weight in on this over on Twitter.

Original Post
Does anyone remember this post?
From the linked article below, the new nominee:  Tim Rezvan.
Tim Rezvan, managing director of Americas research at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., said that while the untapped wells represent a large resource, it will take time to begin pumping them.
“You can’t get those turned on overnight,” Mr. Rezvan said.
I don't know what he means by "overnight," but he's obviously not reading the MillionDollarWay blog. LOL. The production from any DUC completed in the Bakken will show up within 30 days, in the next Director's Cut. In the oil industry, production from a well within 30 days is pretty much "overnight." 
From spud to production in the Bakken, we are talking a couple of weeks if the price is right.
I posted that October 23, 2016 -- about ten days ago. This analyst said it would take "time" for operators to start "pumping DUCs."

So, how did that turn out? Today, over at SeekingAlpha: "Crude oil, energy stocks crushed after history inventory surge."
  • Oil prices and energy equities plunged sharply as the latest inventory data showed U.S. stockpiles posted the largest weekly surge in 34 years, after the consensus outlook had pointed to only a modest rise.
  • WTI crude oil -2.9% to settle at $45.34/bbl, its lowest since September 27, 2016; and, Brent crude -2.7% to $46.86, also its lowest since late September.
  • You could easily make the argument it’s the most bearish report of all time,” says Bob Yawger, director of the futures division of Mizuho Securities USA. “There’s nothing to support the market.”
  • WTI, which already was turning lower in recent days, has now fallen 12% in just two weeks since hitting a one-year high on October 19, 2016, and marks the third retreat from $50/bbl toward $40 within five months.
It looks like this time they interviewed Tim's colleague, Bob Yawger, over at Mizuho. LOL. [Note: in the earlier report Tim Rezvan was the "managing director" of Americas research; Bob Yawger is the "director of the futures division." A lot of directors.]

Drillers -- offshore, onshore, Bakken, Saudi, Iranian, Norwegian -- may not be able to "turn things on overnight" but they sure can do it quickly enough. LOL.

No comments:

Post a Comment