Thursday, November 17, 2016

Bakken 2.0: Twelve Permits Renewed; Six New NP Resources Permits -- November 17, 2016

Track high-intensity fracks here

Active rigs:


11/17/201611/17/201511/17/201411/17/201311/17/2012
Active Rigs3864184183187

Two wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 27434, 2,738, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-9H, Eagle Nest, Three Forks, 34 stages, 5.1 million lbs; t5/16; cum 5K over3 days;
  • 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 132K 9/16;
Six new permits:
  • Operators: NP Resources (4), Enerplus (2)
  • Fields: Ash Coulee (Billings), Eagle Nest (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Twelve permits renewed:
  • Slawson (5): five Submariner Federal permits in Mountrail County
  • Enerplus (4): a Round House, a Log House, a Huffy, and a Schwinn permit, all in Dunn County
  • Oasis (2): two Harbour permits in Williams County
  • Whiting: a Kostelecky permit in Stark County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31309, 281, Wayzetta 9803019H, Parshall, t11/16; cum --
  • 31322, 1,432, EOG, Wayzetta 400-3019H, t11/16; cum -- ; TD, 16,412 feet; TVD, 9,713 feet; s7/4/15; cease drilling, 7/23/15; a fairly short 1280-acre lateral;
************************************

31403, see above, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 132K 9/16:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20162826233266793757575879713504134
BAKKEN8-20162121395212432917148541407627450
BAKKEN7-20163133296333864868874521652108811
BAKKEN6-20163032510322695849872921706281809
BAKKEN5-20161418278178573908136703339692528

31403, see above, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20162667971350
8-20162124340762
7-20163338665210
6-20163226970628
5-20161785733969

2 comments:

  1. I’ve been reading the impressive USGS numbers for expected production from the Wolfcamp, Permian Basin.
    I do question some reporters comments that 20 billion barrels of oil in the Permian is makes it 3 times larger
    than the Bakken. (I know you have commented this statement, too.)

    I recently updated my Bakken EUR estimate which is based on sworn testimony before the ND Oil and Gas Division,
    NDIC. The basis includes expected EURs and well density for various areas and zones of the Bakken/Three Forks as provided
    by the major operators in the Williston Basin.

    This testimony clearly indicates that a majority of the total oil and gas production will come from wells in the core area
    which includes approximately 120 townships in eastern McKenzie, northern Dunn, western Mountrail and southern
    Williams Counties. These core townships are likely to have a ultimate average of 14 wells per 1280 acre unit. These
    14 wells will primarily produce from the Middle Bakken and Bench one and two of the Three Forks. The “core of core”
    has already shown Bench three has good potential. Some of these central core wells might have 18 wells per unit when
    drilling is finally completed.

    Let’s do the math: 18-1280 acre units in 120 townships (2160 units) with an average of 14 wells per unit= 30,240 wells. If these
    wells have an average Ultimate Recovery of 500,000 barrels per well, the core area alone will produce some over 15 Billion
    barrels of oil. (The 500 K EUR is fairly modest with several operators now testifying to 700 K, 900 K EURs with new fracking
    techniques. Oasis’ latest presentation shows Bakken EUR’s of 1.55 million BOE and 1.2 million BOE for Three Forks one. These
    are based on results of the high intensity slickwater fracks in Siverston field north of Watford City. Keep in mind, Oasis estimates
    are barrels of oil equivalent. Since these well have very high Gas-Oil-Ratios, the crude oil EUR will likely be closer to 1.1 million
    and 900 barrels.)

    In addition to the core area of the Bakken/TF, there are at least 150 townships that provide additional production. Again, I used
    18 drilling units per township, resulting in 2700 units. If an average of 6 wells are developed in each of these non-core units,
    there would be 16,200 wells. Using an Ultimate Recovery of 250,000 barrels for each of these wells would provide another
    4 Billion barrels of oil. 15 plus 4 puts the Bakken/Three Forks at 19 Billion barrels of oil from about 48,000 wells. Lynn Helms,
    Director of the ND Oil and Gas Division, has used 50,000 plus wells in his ultimate projections.

    Keep in mind, the non-core area will range of 10 to 12 wells per unit in areas joining the core to 1 or 2 wells per unit in the
    outer reaches. No matter how you figure this, the Bakken and Three Forks contain a lot of oil and gas. It will likely be 45 to
    60 years before anyone knows the answer to the “how much” question.


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    Replies
    1. I'll move that up as a stand-alone post; that is really, really good. Supports what I've suggested. Thank you.

      What really blows me away: the Permian covers half the state of Texas and is a mile thick. The Bakken, a bit of western North Dakota and sixty feet thick.

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