Monday, October 31, 2016

Bakken 2.0: Fourteen Permits Renewed; No DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 31, 2016

Active rigs:


10/31/201610/31/201510/31/201410/31/201310/31/2012
Active Rigs3570193180186

Two wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:
  • 29638, 1,673, WPX, Owl Comes Out 8-9HC, Van Hook, t10/16; cum --
  • 30301, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9, Robinson Lake, no production data,
Two new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis, North Range Resources
  • Fields: Todd (Williams), Rough Rider (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • WPX (5): five Etstatis permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG (7): one Van Hook permit in Mountrail County; three Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County; three Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County
  • MRO (2): two DCFH USA permits in McKenzie County

Update On Nationwide DUCs -- October 31, 2016

From PRWeb:
Energent Group Research shows operator focus on 3,730 drilled-but-uncompleted (DUCs) wells. While US land rigs increase for 5th straight week Permian Basin leads all shale plays with 212 rigs and 1,644 DUCs.
In comparison, North Dakota has about 34 active rigs and about 900 DUCs. 

Trick Or Treat: And You Thought $600 EpiPens Were Expensive: Folks In Arizona Haven't Seen The End Yet -- But It's On Their Radar Scope -- October 31, 2016

The ObamaCare TrainWreck, aka The Affordable (LOL) Care Act was recognized from the beginning the debacle it would become. Its chief advocate even admitted later it was a "trainwreck," coined the word, and retired from the Senate.

Over the years, the right-wing as defined by the left-wing led the charge in warning Americans of the debacle, aka trainwreck. I've linked many of those stories, and was one of the first ad-free blogs to explain how the three-legged stool called ObamaCare was configured. I now have a separate page to track the ObamaCare tipping point -- when I remember to update it. For the most part, the whole story now bores me. As does wind energy.

For the past few months or so, I've pretty much quit linking ObamaCare stories from "marginal" sources; the story has been told and only those living under the Geico Rock remain unaware of it.

But then even I am surprised when really, really quality business magazines and newspapers come up with a full-page story on how really bad ObamaCare is.

Today I was surprised again. It was a link at the Drudge Report. I assumed it was a link to an alt-right or a right-wing marginal news outlet. Nope. The Wall Street Journal:
Inside the Affordable Care Act’s Arizona Meltdown.
Nearly every county in the state now has only one insurer selling plans through the health-care law’s exchange, and premiums are soaring.
The Obama administration has said those Americans with a "modest" annual salary of $25,000 will be offered health insurance at subsidized (not free) rates (with high deductibles and high co-pays. 

I'll read the story later. Halloween trick-or-treating is about to begin.

Be careful out there. And now clown costumes. 

US Oil Exprts Setting Records -- October 31, 2016

NOTE: I will be off the net in a few minutes, bicycling. If I made a mistake in the note(s) below I will not be aware of it for several hours. I will take another look at these notes later this evening. Until then, even my disclaimer needs a disclaimer. 

It sure seemed to take forever, but finally, the Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia has finally been updated. I've been looking for this update for weeks; here it is:


There was a slight, almost imperceptible bump-up in May, 2016, but after that, the downward trend continued. The drop from August to September was quite remarkable given the events and the movement in the price of oil these past few weeks.

The decline month-over-month ranges from 3.35% to 0.0.24%. But one cannot simply suggest that a 1% decline month-over-month can be used to forecast future drops. Saudi Arabia is using cash reserves to pay for a number of items, not least of which is internal security; a war with Yemen; and, to its civil servants. There is a fixed overhead cost the Saudis have to contend with. That fixed overhead cost is not a percent of their reserves; it is a "raw number."

A spreadsheet analysis:
  • the y-axis is in "millions of SAR"
  • the y-axis ranges from 2,050,000 million SAR to 2,450,000 million SAR (assuming I've counted all the zeroes)
  • the raw delta month-over-month in this graph ranges from a low of 5,000 million SAR to 80,000 million SAR (excluding the one outlier, May, 2016). The average for the entire range in this graphic (including the outlier, May, 2016): 32,000 million SAR. 
  • the exchange rate: a SAR is about a quarter (27 cents) in US currency
  • so, conservatively, let's say Saudi Arabia is moving about 27,000 million SAR out of its cash reserves month-over month
  • if one sets up a spreadsheet, with October, 2015, as "month #1" one can see that using this reasoning, which might be completely fallacious and meaningless, but fun nonetheless, one finds that in the 90th month, things not looking so good for Saudi Arabia. The 90th month is January, 2023. 
  • it should be noted that OPEC cannot agree on a cut, and WTI is down almost $2.00 today, now below $47; Brent is probably showing the same trend. 
Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I often make factual and typographical errors. The above is done for my own amusement. But if I don't place it here, I will place it somewhere else and then I will forget when I placed it. This is simply idle chatter. Don't make any financial, investment, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. If this important to you, go to the source.

********************************************
US Oil Exports

From Javier Blas over at Twitter: US oil exports rose in August to 657,000 bopd (2nd highest ever, below the 662,000 bopd of May). Exports reached twelve countries.

***********************************************

The book I'm starting this week:

Solving the Mystery of the Lost Colony Roanoke
Lee Miller
c. 2000
DDS: 975.617 MIL

My notes will be elsewhere

Update On GE-BHI; The Permian: And, OPEC -- October 31, 2016

Update on Russia's Northern Fleet headed to Syria: five minutes ago -- yes, five minutes ago -- the fleet's transponder shows its location to be entering the west channel of the strait between Malta and Sicily. Five minutes ago would have been approximately 10:45 a.m. Central Time. Current local time in Malta is just about 5:00 p.m. Monday. Speed 11.1 knots. 

GE-BHI update: from The Wall Street Journal. From Forbes From Zeits. From Bloomberg. From CNBC. And Rigzone (GE, BHI "shrewd move" cold avert anti-trust issues). Slide presentation at SeekingAlpha. These are the words in the headlines and stories of the linked articles that regulators do not like to see:
  • energy
  • oil 
  • deals
  • mega-deal
  • energy powerhouse
  • BHI-HAL
Fortunately, "pipeline" was not seen in any of the articles. Other than that, this proposed merger will sail right through a Hillary presidency. Assuming, of course, the Clinton Charitable Foundation gets a cut of this oil mega-deal that will result in an energy powerhouse that is a story so big that it's a headline in every media outlet today, completely burying any news in the bid for presidency, and the election just a week away. Reporting in the Los Angeles Times today suggests that Ms Clinton already has an insurmountable lead based on exits polls of fourteen early voters.

Rumor, unsubstantiated, and likely to be untrue: Standing Rock Reservation protesters are being encouraged to boycott Sears outlet stores that sell GE microwave ovens, and asking FBI Director Comey to look into why this deal was announced one week before the election. BHI is being given a pass due to its "peculiar" three-letter ticker.

OPEC: never mind. No cut. WTI this morning on that really, really surprising news: down $1.20 to less than $48.

The Permian: skyrocketing West Texas land prices have oilmen uneasy.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/31/201610/31/201510/31/201410/31/201310/31/2012
Active Rigs3570193180186

RBN Energy: supplying Mexico's growing natural gas demand, part 3.

*****************************
The Market

Mid-day trading: after opening a bit negative, now a bit positive; up about 20 points. NYSE:
new highs - 45: BHI (a big whoop);
new lows - 69: again, not good when the number of "new lows" outpace the number of "new highs"

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Update On GE - BHI -- October 30, 2016

Link here to The Wall Street Journal. New entity would be publicly traded, GE controlled. $30 billion deal. Could create a company with $25 billion in revenue.

Look What They've Done To My ... Why I Love To Blog -- October 30, 2016

World Series Vs Sunday Night Football

Cleveland could close it out tonight and then on NBC it's NDSU's Carson Wentz for the Philadelphia Eagles vs the Dallas Cowboys.

So which game do I watch (both, lots of "back and forth" on the remote)? Who do I root for in the football game, Carson Wentz or Dallas Cowboys?

**** 
For the World Series, I'm neutral. Although I would like to see it go another game. 1 - 0, top of the 4th. Wow, wow, wow. Chicago has come alive. Bases loaded, bottom of the 4th with one out; and Cubs lead 2 - 1. How can I go ever switch back to see Dallas? Chicago still hanging on, 3 - 2, top of the 7th. Without question, this is what makes America great -- the 7th Inning Stretch -- and the singing -- wow -- did "they" do it right tonight. Tears in my eyes. I'm thinking of the guys in Afghanistan / Iraq who are watching this game tonight/their morning -- and really knowing the important things in life. Regardless how it goes, Chicago folks can be proud of their team tonight -- and their city. And the crowd goes wild. Chicago wins. On to game 6. Wow. Fans going wild.

****

With regard to the NFL, it's a no-brainer: the Dallas Cowboys. Cowboys started strong, but now looking sluggish, behind 13 - 10, and Eagles look ready to score again. In that fake punt, in which Dallas Cowboys punter ran about 40 years, Jerry Jones (owner of the Cowboys) looked genuinely happy. Good for  him. Cowboys now playing like they don't to lose; late in the third, Dallas behind 20 - 10.  Somehow got to a tie game. In overtime. Wow, wow, wow: Witten wide open; defenders collided into each other; Witten runs to far side of end zone -- on the TV screen, these is absolutely no one in the area. Dallas QB himself needed to scramble; the result was that the "delay" gave Witten extra seconds to go to the far left, and at same time, defenders run into each other, taking them out of the play. I was sure the Cowboys were going to lose this game early in the third quarter and thought this was going to be quite a feather in Carson's hat to have taken on and defeated the Cowboys. Tony Romo must be getting really, really eager to jump back in.

**************************
Update On GE - BHI

Link here to The Wall Street Journal. New entity would be publicly traded, GE controlled. $30 billion deal. Could create a company with $25 billion in revenue.

**************************
The Sweet Spot

For several months now I have opined a number of times on the blog that for the US, the sweet spot for the price of oil is $46 to $52 or something like that, maybe $48 to $56, somewhere in there.

So, now, this evening over at CNBC, "why an analyst thinks we've just entered the 'sweet spot' for oil prices."

I haven't read the article. So, now I can read it. And not much there, except this:
"There's probably a sweet spot between $50 and $55, but I think we're setting ourselves up for some sort of a disappointment at the OPEC meeting," explained Tom Kloza on CNBC. "I think the language is probably going to be thoroughly bullish. They'll pay lip service to some sort of a freeze."
$50 to $55 is certainly not going to help Saudi Arabia much. So, we'll see.

Look What They've Done To My Song, Melanie Safka

************************** 
A Note to the Granddaughters

I've never understood the "importance" or the "significance" of the title of one of Shakespeare's comedies, A Midsummer's Night's Dream, until tonight, while reading Gerhard Herm's The Celts. There are many definitions of the seasons.

At the time of the Celts, May 1 -- the first day of May -- was the day they took the cattle up to the mountain meadows -- it was the first day of summer. The midsummer was the solstice -- June 22, or thereabouts. From wiki:
The Christian Church designated June 24 as the feast day of the early Christian martyr St John the Baptist, and the observance of St John's Day begins the evening before, known as St John's Eve. These are commemorated by many Christian denominations. 
In Sweden the Midsummer is such an important festivity that there have been serious discussions to make the Midsummer's Eve into the National Day of Sweden, instead of June 6. It may also be referred to as St. Hans Day.
Apparently in the 16th century, in England, midsummer was an incredibly important day, important enough that Shakespeare titled a play after the date. 

While stationed overseas, I remember well the days we went up in to the Alps, saw the little "chalets" and the importance of taking the cattle up to the mountain meadows for the summer.

"Alp" is a Celtic word: it gave the mountain range its name, but it also refers to the mountain meadows to which the cattle were taken.

A Bio -- November 22, 2016

The following was sent to me by a reader. I do not the origin of this. FWIT.  [I used an "old" post to place this "bio" -- that's why it shows up at being posted October 30, 2016. In fact it was posted at 5:46 a.m. Central Time, November 22, 2016.

Donald John Trump, was born June 14, 1946.

He will be 70 years old on election day.

From the Internet, he is 6'2" or 6'3' and weighs between 195 and 200 lbs. He has a full head of blond/brown hair (which is long and elaborately combed) and blue eyes. The Internet tells us he wears a size 12 shoe.

Donald Trump was born the fourth of five children who were born over eleven years. The oldest, Mary Ann, was born in 1937 and is currently a Federal Judge. His older brother, Fred Jr, died in early adulthood as a result of complications from alcoholism. He has another older sister, Elizabeth and a younger brother, Robert.

Donald Trump has been married three times. Trump's first wife, Ivana, was an immigrant from Czechoslovakia and a divorcee who has been married 4 times in her life. She is a lifelong avid skier and worked in design at the Trump Organization. Marla Maples, Trump's second wife is an actress and model Trump's third wife, Melania is an immigrant from Slovenia (born in Yugoslavia) and has been a super model.

Two of Trump's children, Donald Jr. And Ivanka, have gone to Penn. Son Eric, went to Georgetown.

Donald Trump tells us that he is Presbyterian. Donald Trump does not appear to have had any interest in occults, mysticism or exotic mythologies. Donald Trump's oldest daughter, Ivanka, and her three children are Jewish.

Trump's oldest daughter, Ivanka, is married to Jared Kushner who is, among other things, a newspaper publisher. The Kushner family is very successful in New York City area real estate.

Donald's grandmother, mother, first wife, and third wife are all immigrants. Donald Trump was born and raised in Queens, NY.

Though his family was very wealthy, Trump's boyhood home in the Jamaica Estates section of Queens was not a grand mansion. The Trump home was a larger version of the homes Fred Trump built for his tenants. There are no indications that the Trump family lived among the wealthy elites on vacations or country clubs. Queens is the largest of New York's five boroughs and the most ethnically diverse. Trump attended a local private day school, the Kew Forrest School, in Queens until about 8th grade. His secondary schooling was at New York Military Academy which is about 60 miles north of NYC in Cornwall On the Hudson.

He was in class of 1964. Trump was never a Preppie." Trump never embraced any aspect of the "Hippie" movement of the time. Trump was a very good high school athlete - football, soccer, and especially baseball. He had potential to become a professional baseball player. Even in high school - Trump liked women and women liked him. Trump was generally popular in high school. Trump's boarding school room mate liked him.

He attended Fordham University in NYC for two years and transferred to the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business. At that time, the Wharton School offered a rare program for Real Estate Business.

Though he was of age, Donald Trump did not serve in Vietnam. He was not drafted due to bone spurs in his heels (4F) and also student deferments. Ultimately, in the draft lottery, he drew a high number.

By all we know, Donald Trump does not smoke, drink or use recreational drugs. He'll be the first president in more than 25 years who hasn't smoked weed.

BTW: Trump's children do not smoke or drink. Trump makes it well known that he enjoys sexual interaction with women. I am unaware that Donald Trump is a recreational gambler. His doctor publicly announced Donald to be in excellent health. I think that to really know Donald Trump, you must know his family background. The Trump family story is a very American story. Trump family history - concise version. Donald Trump's grandparents immigrated to the U.S. From Alsace (Kallstadt, Germany) which throughout history has been alternately French and German. The Trumps are German, originally speaking the same German dialect as the Amish of Lancaster County, PA.

His maternal grandparents lived in Scotland.

Freiderich (Drumph) Trump made a small but respectable fortune in the late 19th Century in the mining boom towns of the American Northwest. He returned to Germany to marry his childhood neighbor, Elizabeth Christ. The newly married Trumps resettled in the Borough of Queens NY. Freiderich was establishing a real estate business in Queens when he died suddenly at age 49 (1918).

In 1920, at the age of 15, Fred Trump (Freiderich's son and Donald's father), started a business partnership with his widowed mother called Elizabeth Trump & Son. This business was built upon the real estate holdings that his father, Frederich, had amassed (worth about $500,000.00 in today's dollars). This is the original "seed money" of the current Trump Organization.

Elizabeth & Fred remained close business partners her entire life (she died in 1966). In 1936 Fred Trump (age 31) married Mary Ann MacLeod (age 24) of Stoneaway Scotland. During the depression, Fred Trump built and successfully operated a supermarket (a new concept at the time) which was sold to King Kullen Co. which operates to this day. Fred Trump made a lot of money building housing for the military during WWII.

Fred Trump was investigated by the Justice Department for making "excessive profits" from government contracts. All (or nearly all) of the building of Elizabeth Trump & Son's non-government building was residential property in Queens.

Fred Trump died in 1999 (age 94) - beloved and worth between $250 million and $300 million. His wife died a year later.

"The Donald's" career Donald Trump is the greatest career achiever of the "baby boomer" generation. Donald Trump has reached the zenith in his careers as book author, TV entertainer, sports entertainer, real estate developer, Donald Trump has authored more than 18 books. At least one of them, The Art of the Deal, was a top seller. Donald says that the Holy Bible is his favorite book. The Art of the Deal is his 2nd favorite book. And The Power of Positive Thinking by Norman Vincent Peale is his third favorite book. He likes golf.  [I believe he has said his favorite book is the Bible.]

Donald Trump has developed more than 11 golf courses which bear his name.

Donald Trump has twice been nominated for an Emmy Award. Donald Trump has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. Donald Trump has been inducted to the Professional Wrestling Hall of Fame. Donald Trump has appeared in more than a dozen movies such as Home Alone 2, Zoolander, and Little Rascals. Donald Trump has been a guest actor in more than 6 TV shows such as Fresh Prince of Bel Air, Days of Our Lives, Sex and the City, and others. Trump has been the executive producer of 7 TV shows. Trump has been the guest host of 5 TV shows such as Extra, Larry King Live, and Saturday Night Live and more. Donald Trump has been co-producer of the longest running reality TV show.

Donald Trump performed in several WWE wrestling shows. Donald performed in Wrestlemania 23 which set attendance records and revenue records up til that time. In his first candidacy for public office, Donald Trump received the most popular votes for the President of the United States out of a field of experienced and successful politicians. And in most cases, he achieved this with less money than any of his opponents.

Keeping in mind that 90% of start-up businesses fail, Trump's record of enterprise is nothing short of amazing. Donald Trump has enjoyed success in at least 11 very different enterprises: professional football, ice skating rinks, fragrance, ice, steaks, wines, model management, airline, blenders, men's wear, bicycle races, world class beauty contests, and many others. In some of these, such as model management, his firm has risen to the top of that particular industry. There are 31 buildings that bear his name. The largest private real estate development in New York is Trump Riverside.

Drive down the Henry Hudson Blvd. - you can't miss them. There are at least 12 Trump Towers. There are at least 6 Trump Plazas. There are at least 11 Trump Golf Course developments And much, much, more in real estate. Trump Entertainment, casinos and resorts was recently sold to Carl Ichan. Donald Trump's personal managing of the Wollman Ice Skating Rink project in the early 1980's is the quintessential case study for MBA students in Wharton, Harvard, and other business schools. His performance there was phenomenal. Donald Trump's privately held businesses have employed more than 200,000 people.

In the casino business in Atlantic City, Trump had to do business with known mobsters and he stayed "clean" and alive. Aside from his personal investments, Donald Trump has never been a Wall Street "player".

The Political Trump:
  • about 1967 - 1987 - Democrat (he was a supporter of Ronald Reagan) 
  • 1987 - 1999 - Republican 
  • 1999 - 2001 - Reform Party (he supported Ross Perot) 
  • 2001 - 2009 - Democrat 
  • 2009 - 2011 - Republican 
  • 2011 - 2012 - Independent 
  • 2012 - Present - Republican Donald Trump was openly supportive of Mitt Romney's candidacy
Donald Trump does not seem to hold political party organizations in high Regard. For the most part, his political involvement has been for practical reasons. Donald Trump does not appear to be held to political ideology.

Some of the take-aways (from those who know him): Trump has an extraordinarily energetic central nervous system much like Teddy Roosevelt, but more targeted to industry and enterprise. Trump's presidency will be very energetic, transparent, and communicative.

Trump will be a very hard working President. His interaction with his older brother (who everybody loved) tells me that he thinks that everybody is His relationship with his older brother was a hard lesson in tolerance for him. Trump is the Babe Ruth of career achievements. He is dumb like a fox.

When you think he just said something stupid - he didn't. It's just that you were not his target audience. Trump knows the people - the folk. His son, Donald Jr. is right. Trump is a "Blue Collar Billionaire".

More than anything, his TV show, The Apprentice, was his passion. He wants all Americans to have confidence (like he does) to venture. Donald Trump is attracted to and marries smart, high achieving women.

The highest levels of a Trump Administration is certain to have many women - and they will be bright and assertive. Donald Trump's children are very important to him. And it shows.

PS - Now you know a heck of a lot more about Donald Trump than you know of our current president with 2 terms in office.

Siemens Gaining Ground In Germany -- October 30, 2016

Just a few days I asked whatever happened to Siemens. I had not heard from them recently. Today Penn Energy reports:
Direct-drive wind turbines from Siemens are gaining ground on the German market: Siemens has now received five orders for 23 of these state-of-the-art wind turbines. Two of the wind power farms are situated in Germany's northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein, while the other three are to be erected in Lower Saxony. Installation of all five projects, comprising anywhere from one to eight of these gearless units each, is to be completed by the spring of 2017.
The first Siemens model SWT-3.3-130 wind turbine to be installed in Germany is to be erected in Schleswig-Holstein by the end of this year in the municipality of Südermarsch near the town of Husum. This unit that Siemens is installing for Südermarsch Wind GmbH & Co. has an 85-meter hub height on a steel tower and a rotor diameter of 130 meters designed to operate in moderate wind speeds and deliver a rated electrical generating capacity of 3.3 megawatts (MW). Six other wind turbines of this model make up the Damme Wind Farm project being erected near the city of the same name in Lower Saxony. Owing to the wind conditions at this site, however, Siemens will install the units on steel tube towers with a hub height of 135 meters. Both projects are scheduled to go on line by the end of this year.

CLR To Report A Nice Well Near Williston On Monday -- October 30, 2016

Saturday, October 29, 2016:
  • 31999, SI/NC, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-34 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
  • 32619, SI/NC, XTO, Johnson 31X-6FXG, Siverston, no production data,
Sunday, October 30, 2016:
  • 30315, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 94K in less than four months;
Monday, October 31, 2016:
  • Boo-hoo! None.
*****************************************

31357, see above, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, producing:


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20162535027615
7-20162733330365
6-20162718728747
5-20161291812572
4-20165860


****************************
Note to the Granddaughters 

Wow, talk about another great Sunday. Many, many moving parts.

Grammy May and Kiri and Sophia are watching Arianna at the second day of the two-day north Texas water polo tournament up at Denton, TX. Arianna's team won the first game by a lopsided margin, lost the second game. Arianna's dad, Josh, is at work.

I drove Olivia to her Olympic Program Development soccer practice up in Carrollton. Wow -- they said it was a "hole-in-the-wall" venue. Maybe. If you consider multiplex movie theater complexes "holes-in-the-wall." This was a huge venue where Olivia will be practicing her soccer skills. It is incredibly impressive.

Meanwhile, I returned home because I have two crock-pots going -- brisket and vegetables. Getting prepared for tomorrow's night "Boos and Brews" in the neighborhood. More on that later.

Then the final seconds of the Seattle - New Orleans game in which Seattle might actually pull this off. (Nope -- not to be: NO held on. Incredible game.)

And, then, of course, the highlight of the day: NASCAR at Martinsville.

The aroma of the brisket is incredible.

And I'm reading The Celts b Gerhard Herm, c. 1975. This is the third time I've read this book. It makes even more sense now that I've read Helen of Troy and the story of the Frisians -- the Edge of the World. Lots of stuff to talk about with Arianna.

Thank goodness for the remote control.

Do the Dallas Cowboys play today? Yup, tonight. Wow.

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Everthing's Bigger In Texas

There are large eggs. There are extra large eggs. And then there are Texas large eggs.

These are Texas egg cartons stacked up alongside I-35E north of Dallas waiting to pick up Texas medium-size eggs for Waffle Houses Monday morning.



You should see the free-range chickens that lay the eggs.

Nice Overview / Update Of The Bakken -- Grand Forks Herald -- October 30, 2016

New e-mail disclosure and the fact that the FBI is re-opening its investigation is having no effect on the polls, at least the USC-Los Angeles Times poll. It's now been long enough for that story to have impacted the polls if it was going to, but it hasn't. In addition, Drudge says this new e-mail revelation is not trending. Pundits say this will be difficult for Huma to be part of the next administration. Whom are they kidding. That which does not kill us makes us stronger. If Hillary is elected, Huma will be by her side.



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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/30/201610/30/201510/30/201410/30/201310/30/2012
Active Rigs3470190182185


Bakken economy
Lunnen Estate Real Services an industrial real estate development and brokerage company along with their partners have acquired 83 acres adjoining the Dakota Access (Energy Transfer Partner's) crude oil gathering Trenton Terminal West of Williston in Williams County to add to their 1804 Industrial Park. This acquisition will expand the park to over 200 acres of heavy industrial land intended for crude oil storage and ancillary oil companies around the terminal.
"Next week" begins today. Will we see news of a newly formed energy company made up of bits and pieces of GE and BHI today? From a couple of days ago, this story for those who missed it. From MSN/FT just a couple of hours ago (October 30, 2016, 2:50 p.m. Central Time), this story, data points:
  • GE has these core competencies: oil & gas; power generation; renewables; aviation; and, healthcare
  • those core competencies are called the "GE Store"
  • GE shares have fallen by "a tenth" due to prolonged agony of GE's oil and gas equipment business
  • GE looking to its "oil and gas business" with BHI, and then later spin out the larger unit
  • so there you have it: GE and BHI would not merge; rather GE "spins off" its oil and gas business and let that business merge with BHI -- is that right? is that the sequence? this will be fun to watch
*******************************
Bakken Primer / Update

Nice overview of the Bakken in The Grand Forks Herald. For newbies, Grand Forks is on the opposite side of the state of North Dakota, about 300 miles east. It's been my impression that once one gets east of Minot, many North Dakotans are unaware of the positive impact of the Bakken. This story provides some nice data points:
  • each oil well contributes about $300,000 in sales tax revenue alone (memo to self: compare with a wind tower)
  • more than 900 DUCs yet to be brought on line; they will add more than a quarter of a billion dollars in sales tax revenue to the state budget
  • the oil industry provides 15% of the state's jobs; raised per-capita personal income from $26K (2000) to almost $60K (2013)
  • in 2000, ND ranked in bottom ten of the US states in terms of GDP; by 2012, it ranked #2 
  • 11,200 Bakken wells; more will be added; as more wells added, the number of related jobs increase
The 30 active rigs will drill about 600 new wells each year -- enough to maintain one million bopd, in my opinion, but way down from the 2,000 wells/year we saw at the height of the boom -- but remember, they were drilling as fast as they could in the beginning of the boom -- just like a typical gold rush: folks were staking their claims. Oil companies needed to drill a well in every drilling unit to hold their lease by production. Economics mattered, but holding claims mattered more.
*************************************** 
The Kennel

The Williston Herald has a story on the growing Williams County jail. Perhaps they should have converted some of the man-camps to more jail cells. LOL. By the way, the new "cell blocks" remind me of the "original Halliburton man-camp east of town; the "cell blocks" are being manufactured in Georgia (US, not Russia).

***************************
Sunday Morning Coming Down

Preparing brisket and vegetables. They will be slow-cooked in separate slow cookers. I am comparing a 6-qt Crock-Pot, side-by-side with a 7-qt Black & Decker. Hands down, I prefer the Black & Decker.


The brisket will undergo several more trimmings to remove the fat. After it has cooked, I will remove the rest of the fat, which comes off easily once cooked. Some folks remove the fat during the cooking process to further decrease the amount of fat in the final incredibly delicious product. 


The potatoes and carrots will be cut down to size.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Sedalia Energy Drilling Two New Laterals In An Existing Madison Well 20 Miles Northeast Of Minot -- October 29, 2016

Updates

December 20, 2017: this well, and I assume many others in the area, were transferred to Murex Petroleum this data; 

April 23, 2017: update; water production, after dropping significantly, is now back up. 

February 4, 2017: update on the Madison horizontal, Pratt Madison Unit 1H (are these oil wells or "water wells"? Look at all the water).
  • 29854, 320, Murex/Sedalia Energy, Pratt Madison Unit 1H, Pratt oil field, t12/24/14; cum 50K 1/17; total depth, 8,041 feet; acres in drilling unit, 1,002; target objective Glenburn 1B; this well is in Pratt oil field, a few miles east-northeast of the Glenburn oil field, which in turn is northeast of Minot; well outside the Bakken.
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON2-2017283739383219151000
MADISON1-201731453944375447000
MADISON12-2016314444448720888000
MADISON11-20161210507909878000
MADISON10-20160000000
MADISON9-2016001250000
MADISON8-2016197388035077000
MADISON7-201631119711888672000
MADISON6-201630119211658660000
MADISON5-201631133513198868000
MADISON4-201630135614338572000
MADISON3-201631131712716767000
MADISON2-201629140513306437000
MADISON1-201631148014656147000
MADISON12-201531142014547828000
MADISON11-201530163316577604000
MADISON10-201530174817908191000
MADISON9-201530178017357641000
MADISON8-201531180619167763000
MADISON7-2015312253218410630000
MADISON6-2015242114214710105000
MADISON5-2015312447248410324000
MADISON4-201530261425229962000
MADISON3-2015312822284210036000
MADISON2-201528291329657135000
MADISON1-201531389641140000
MADISON12-2014102348190110831000

The graphic:
 




December 9, 2016: Production is reported from the first lateral. The well was taken off-line in mid-August, 2016. The NDIC map shows a rig on the pad for #29854.



It's Madison Time


Original Post

Sedalia Energy Drilling Two Additional Laterals In An Existing Madison Well

This is interesting. There is a rig on this pad according to the NDIC GIS map server:
  • 29854, 320, Sedalia Energy, Pratt Madison Unit 1H, Pratt Oil Field, t12/14; cum 40K 8/16; bottom hole location is in the southeast corner of section 32-159-80.
This is a fairly nondescript Madison well, that is well east of the Bakken, about 21 miles northeast of Minot, ND.

According to a sundry form received August 10, 2016:
Sedalia Energy plans to drill two new laterals in the PMU 1H.

Lateral #2 will be an open hole sidetrack of the original lateral...will follow the Glenburn pay zone to a measured depth of +/- 7,465 feet with an estimated TVD of 4,229 feet. The bottom hole location will be in section 5.

Lateral #3 will be an open hole sidetrack of the original lateral...will follow the Glenburn pay zone to a measured depth of +/- 8,384 feet' with an estimated TVD of 4,234 feet. The bottom hole location will be in section 32. 
*******************************
  World Series
Game 4
Cleveland Leads Series 3 -1 

Cleveland up 3 - 1 early in the game. At the top of the 4th, Cleveland adds another, now 4 - 1.Wow, the Indians "bust it open" in the top of the 7th inning -- 3-run homer, now 7 - 1, top of the seventh, no outs. Phenomenal. First time anyone has hit a 3-run homer in the World Series since Babe Ruth. Wow.

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College Football 

Wow, wow, wow .. Texas (unranked) just beat Baylor (ranked #8), 35 - 34.

Another Open-Book Test For Energy Investors -- 2020 Is Only Four Years From Now -- October 29, 2016

A couple of days ago I posted this little gem:
Watch the price of gasoline in November: indications suggest the price of gasoline could spike in Europe in November, 2016.
Now, yesterday this story over at Platts:
Global gasoline demand will rise as long as crude stays below $60/b, and a shortage of Asian gasoline refining capacity will drive US exports higher, [according to an analyst].
"Any way that we look at the future refineries under construction [in Asia], they cannot produce enough gasoline." Fesharaki expects US net exports of refined products to keep rising.
Cool, huh?

Other data points in the Platts article:
  • in one decade, the US has made a dramatic swing from 3.9 million b/d of net imports to 2.3 million b/d in net exports (July, 2016) -- insert "Bakken" or "shale revolution" here
  • this was the decade in which Obama famously said, "we can't just drill our way to lower prices" 
  • as time goes by, there is a gasoline shortage worldwide that only US refiners can supply -- analyst
  • expect huge amounts of exports of US gasoline to all over Asia, without which Asia cannot balance its system
  • in addition, ocean-going tankers must reduce sulfur-containing fuel
Now get this -- that last bullet, regarding ocean-going shippers (you will see this posted again):
  • currently, ocean-going tankers bunker 4 million b/d, which is using 3.5% to 4% sulfur fuel oil
  • "If God almighty comes from the heavens, He cannot make 0.5% fuel oil by 2020" -- analyst
  • thus: cheating, rampant noncompliance, use of US LNG for bunkering and blended diesel
  • the price of fuel oil will collapse and refinery economics will go through the roof


Is this an open book test for investors or what?

Saudi Arabia has announced plans for new refineries; the only question is whether they will locate those refineries in Saudi Arabia (lack of skilled labor force); Europe (unlikely); Asia (possibly); along the Texas/Louisiana coast (very likely).

With regard to fuel oil, by the way, it will be interesting to read the tea leaves -- New England -- fuel oil or natural gas?

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A Note For The Granddaughters

This has been quite a day for the oldest granddaughter, Arianna, age 13.

Last year she was the only flutist in her symphonics band to audition for honors band, and she made it. She plays second chair in honors band.

Today, she auditioned for District Band, and she made it. A huge honor. This is really quite exciting for an eighth grader in her last year at middle school before moving to high school next year.

Now, she is playing water polo in Denton, TX, at a north Texas water polo tournament. Hoo-ahh!

About That Revised 3Q16 GDP -- October 29, 2016

USC-LA Times Poll -- October 29, 2016

FBI Director Comey announced Clinton e-mail investigation re-opened one day earlier.

Unlikely that this poll reflects most recent news about Clinton e-mail scandal.


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GDP

Yesterday, the Obama administration announced that the US economy grew 2.9% in 3Q16, the fastest rate in two years.

It's hard for me to believe that bureaucrats can't fudge the data to get any number they are told. Had they been told to come up with 3.2%, they would have. I have no doubt.

So the question is not how do they arrive at 2.9% but rather, "how did they arrive at the decision to make 2.9% the target?"

The administration wanted a 3.0% or better revision but the bureaucrats knew that a 3.0% would not be credible. The GDP can't be an "even-3.0." So, it's either some number below 3 or some number above 3.

Below 3, the president is not happy, but at least Wall Street will "trust" the number, as will gullible Americans, like me. Above 3%, the president will be ecstatic (but he's gone in 80 days anyway) and there's no way Wall Street will believe a number greater than 3.0%, although, again, most gullible Americans, including me, would believe anything up to and including 3.9%.

So, the "deciders" said, "We'll go with 2.9%. It's almost enough to make the president happy and Wall Street will believe that number." To wit:
“This is a good, solid number,” said Gus Faucher, deputy chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “The economy is growing at a decent clip. Consumer spending will continue to lead growth, and the fundamentals there remain positive.”
And:
While the pace of economic growth in the third quarter fell well short of previous achievements, the latest data represented a significant improvement from the first half of 2016 and the best quarterly advance in two years.
Economists also said the gains were probably strong enough to reassure Federal Reserve policy makers that it was safe to raise the benchmark interest rate when they meet in December.
Short history:
As recently as October 18, 2016, the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, GA, using real numbers and real formulas, calculated that the 3Q16 GDP would be 1.9%.  To get from 1.9% to 2.9% is quite an achievement -- in less than two weeks, using almost the same numbers.
The day before the Obama administration announced the 2.9% GDP revision, the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, GA, forecast 2.1%, in line with what they had been predicting:
Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — October 27, 2016.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 27, up from 2.0 percent on October 19.
The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.15 percentage points to 0.07 percentage points after yesterday's Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.23 percentage points to 0.03 percentage points after the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators release and its advance durable manufacturing report this morning.
In one day, the estimate jumps from 2.1% to 2.9%. In less than two weeks, it jumped from 2.0% to 2.9%.
  • 2.9 - 2.0 = 0.9
  • 0.9/2.0 = 0.45
So, in less than two weeks, using pretty much the same numbers, the Obama number jumps 45% from the Federal Reserve Bank's number in Atlanta, GA.

In one day, it jumped 38%. The bureaucrat who figured that out is due for a huge end-of-the-year bonus. 

Probably just one of those things.

*********************************
Comey

Updates

November 2, 2016: "intent to obstruct"? Huma had four e-mail accounts
Abedin was questioned by FBI agents and Justice Department officials, including those involved with counterintelligence matters, on April 5, 2016.
During those discussions, Abedin revealed that she used four different email accounts while she was deputy chief of staff for operations in Clinton’s seventh floor office at the State Department.
The email accounts included her official State Department account, 1) abedinh@state.gov; 2) the private server account, huma@clintonemail.com; and, 3) her private email, humamabedin@yahoo.com. Abedin’s fourth email account was associated with the campaign activities of her estranged husband, former Democratic congressman Anthony Weiner. 
Later, 2:53 p.m. Central Time: when one reads The New York Times story on the relationship among Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner, and Hillary (which was posted about 7 minutes ago) the writer comes incredibly close to using the French phrase ménage à trois. Early in the series, House of Cards, there was a ménage à trois among husband and wife (protagonists of the show) and a Secret Service agent. It is well know that the writers of this Netflix series got their inspiration from the Clintons (if that's the correct idiom). When asked about the content of the show, whether it was credible, sometimes seeming to have gone too far out on a limb, the writers have been known to answer that if they wrote what they really knew was going on in Washington, no one would "believe" the show.

Later, 2:37 p.m. Central Time: this is the headline over at The Los Angeles Times -- "FBI says e-mails found in Anthony Weiner's sexting scandal may have links to Clinton probe." Okay, for those who are under the Geico Rock, let's review: Hillary Clinton has been under suspicion, like, forever. She was the target of an FBI investigation, for, perhaps a year. Her closest aide, confidant, friend, and vice chairman of Clinton's presidential campaign was Huma Abedin. Huma is married to, now separated from, Mr Weiner. And now, two weeks before the election, the FBI tells us they found e-mails in Weiner's sexting scandal that may have links to the Clinton probe. What in the world was the FBI doing for a full year investigating Ms Clinton's e-mails and private servers? Apparently not looking at e-mail from her closest aide, confidant, and friend -- or not looking very closely.

Later, 1:03 p.m. Central Time: literally less than an hour after I wrote the original post below, I went to Drudge; he had posted a number of new banner headlines. Most surprising was a link to one of Clinton's press agents: The New Yorker. The last two paragraphs of the article by Jane Mayer, a New Yorker staff writer since 1995:
In a letter to F.B.I. employees sent soon after the letter to Congress, Comey tried to explain his unusual decisions. In the letter, which was obtained by the Washington Post, he acknowledged, “Of course, we don’t ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was completed. I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record. At the same time, however, given that we don’t know the significance of this newly discovered collection of emails, I don’t want to create a misleading impression. In trying to strike that balance, in a brief letter and in the middle of an election season,” he noted, “there is significant risk of being misunderstood.”
“I don’t really blame Comey,” another former Justice Department official said. “But it’s troubling.”
This official thought that Comey “didn’t want to look tainted. This new information comes to him, and he’s afraid if he doesn’t make it public until after the election he’ll be impeached. People will say he lied to Congress. But in the end he did the self-protective thing. Was it the right thing? Put it this way: it isn’t what previous Administrations have done.”
Many, many comments could be made on those two paragraphs. Most troubling is a journalist who feels that "cover-ups of past administrations" justify "cover-ups by the present administration." At least that's how I read her last three sentences.

"Didn't want to look tainted." "Didn't want to be indicted for conspiracy" is how I read it. Another way to read this: "Do I really want to be the first FBI Director to go to prison for conspiracy?"

My hunch: an in-house FBI lawyer went to Comey and said: "We either tell Congress ourselves that the Weiner investigation has led us back to Ms Clinton, or we wait for someone to leak that fact. Or it comes out after the election and we now find ourselves defending an obstruction of justice suit." At least that's my hunch. Which may change as more facts come out.

The Bernstein hunch: if what the FBI found among Weiner's and Huma's e-mail was simply "more of the same" with regard to Ms Clinton, Comey would not have sent the letter that he did to Congress. The investigation of Mr Weiner and Ms Abedin would have continued but no need to "go back" to Ms Clinton; that ground had already been plowed during a 3 1/2 hour interview. Bernstein: there must have been a "bombshell" in Mr Weiner's or Huma's e-mail exchanges. 

Original Post

My hunch: evidence of conspiracy to obstruct justice. That's pretty much a given. The "fun" is listening to the talk at the deli about who were involved in the conspiracy. The list of "usual suspects" is quite long.

Week 43: October 23, 2016 -- October 29, 2016

Another week of earnings reports and surprises. Of the majors, it looks like analysts are giving COP the benefit of the doubt, but wow, Exxon could be in a bit of trouble, as they get ready to write down their reserves. Chevron was the big surprise -- even increasing their dividend.

Whiting proved they were right that they could make money on $25 oil, or whatever price it was they said or what they were rumored to have said. I think I heard some rumors that down to $20 Whiting could make money. That was over a year ago, now.

On the international radar scope, it is clear that OPEC will be unable to make any meaningful cuts in production. The only OPEC country that could still announce some kind of cut is Saudi Arabia, but none of the others will. Maybe they will do it like the courts do it here in America: find someone guilty, sentence him to ten years in prison, allow for time already served, and then suspend the sentence. OPEC could do the same: announce a cut of "x" percent and then suspend the announced cut until the next meeting. Whatever. But at $49 oil, Saudi remains in a heap of trouble.

Speaking of "heap" of trouble, a note about Standing Rock Reservation. In general, and with very few exceptions, I won't blog about the DAPL and the protest in North Dakota, but I am following it to some extent -- a very limited extent. There's an article in today's Bismarck paper suggesting that the reservation is facing huge financial problems of their own (it looks like they are about ready to cave without more Hollywood financial support) and some of the folks are just now realizing winter is about to set in. I don't think folks who have never been to North Dakota in general, or to this part of North Dakota, in particular, can fathom how miserable next month is going to be for the protesters. And November is mild compared to February, three months later. Living in teepees or tipis off the reservation for the next six months -- wow, a great documentary for National Geographic or photo spread in Vanity Fair. This is an incredibly remote, desolate area of North Dakota -- even for North Dakota. There is nothing out there. I drove through the area earlier this year -- not even aware that DAPL was going to be an issue -- and even after growing up in North Dakota, I was surprised how remote this area was. It was absolutely beautiful; the scenery was incredible. But almost no sign of civilization. One gas station. Great location for a mega wind-farm. Whatever.

The most non-Bakken fun I've had on the blog, I suppose, is tracking the Northern Fleet on its way to Syria. The last signal/update was 22 hours ago. If the tug did not linger for some reason, the fleet should be north of Algiers by now.

Back to the Bakken. There are more and more signs that we are in the early stages of Bakken 2.0.

I started blogging about Bakken 2.0 about two weeks ago, and this past week Lynn Helms of the NDIC, without using that exact term, suggested the same thing. Even the Oil & Gas Journal picked up on it.

Bakken 2.0 -- Active Rigs
Up to 36
Number of active rigs rising slowly in North Dakota

Noticed by the Oil & Gas Journal

Bakken 2.0 -- Multi-Well Mega-Pad Development
CLR's proposed ten-well Bailey/Wiley pad in Pershing oil field
CLR's proposed thirteen-plus Sakakawea Federal pad in Elm Tree oil field

Bakken 2.0 -- Mega-Fracks
Random update on MRO's mega-fracks  

Bakken 2.0 -- Permits Renewed
Twelve permits renewed
Twenty-four permits renewed; thirteen new permits
Thirty-four permits renewed; fourteen new permits 

Bakken 2.0 -- New Operators
Petro-Sentinel (although probably not drilling Bakken wells) 
CLR transfers 67 wells to Kraken Operating 

Bakken 2.0 -- Increased Bakken Production
Hess set to increase producing in the Bakken in 2017
31% production increase, average EURs of almost 1 million boe; consistent production increase regardless of fracking intervals

Bakken 2.0 -- Increased EURs
Hess raises average EURs to one million boe for wells drilled in 4Q16

Bakken 2.0 -- DUCs Being Completed
Seven DUCs reported as being completed 

Bakken 2.0 -- Deals
Forbes talks about the SM Energy - Oasis deal in the Bakken

Bakken 2.0 -- Plans
Williston / Williams County begin open comment "season" on comprehensive plans for city and county  

Operations
Of all the operators in the Bakken, Halcon continues to report some of the best wells based on IPs; one example here
Number of potential Whiting drill sites probably under-estimated
Is the shale honeymoon over for PADD 1 (east coast) refineries?

Bakken Economy
Williston State College extends free college to several more counties in Montana, North Dakota
Western Area Water Supply Authority -- a huge success story -- celebrates its fifth anniversary

Friday, October 28, 2016

Making Money On $25 Oil -- October 28, 2016

Updates

November 26, 2016: it is being reported that the breakeven point in the Bakken is now well below $25/bbl.
 
Original Post
 
When Saudi announced it was going to open its spigot, Whiting was the only oil company that I am aware of that said it could make money on $25 oil. So, how did that work out?

From today's Motley Fool and Whiting's 3Q16 earnings report:
Whiting was able to deliver that strong production while only spending $85 million on capital expenditures (capex) during the third quarter, which was flat with the prior quarter. That's an important number because the company's cash flow during the quarter was $151 million as a result of its high-end production, lower operating costs, and improving oil prices. After subtracting capex, Whiting still had $66 million in cash flow to spare, which is a rare feat in the oil industry these days, especially in the Bakken.
Because of the Bakken's high costs and steep production decline rates, producers have struggled to maintain their output during the downturn, which has certainly been the case for Whiting up to this point. The capital-intensive nature of the play meant that generating any excess cash flow would be tough to do. That said, it has not been impossible.
"Steep decline rates" has become a Bakken meme.

Cleveland Takes 2 -1 Lead In Series; Whiting: Takeover Candidate (Again?); Amazon's Brick-And-Mortar Bookstores -- October 28, 2016

World Series: three possibilities right now, bottom of the 9th:
  • Indians win third game, 1 - 0
  • Chicago ties it 1 - 1, taking it to extra innings
  • Chicago wins, 2 - 0
Down to their final out. "Last" batter is 2 for 30 in post-season. Wow, redeemed himself. Gets to first on an error. Steal to third. All the batter at the plate needs is a single. Down to the final strike. Strike out. Cleveland wins, 1 - 0. Heart breaker.

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Back To The Bakken

Could Whiting Re-Emerge As A Takeover Candidate? -- Forbes
Led by 69-year-old CEO Jim Volker, the company has one of the biggest acreage positions and is one of the largest oil producers in the Bakken/Three Forks area within North Dakota’s and Montana’s Williston Basin, where it owns 444,000 net acres in the core oil zones with around 5,500 potential gross drilling locations,
Gheit points out. It also has 129,000 net acres in the oil window of Colorado’s DJ Basin with more than 6,200 potential gross drilling locations, where it is rapidly growing its production in the Niobrara and Codell zones. Whiting believes it can expand production by double-digits at $55 per barrel oil, Gheit says.
Whiting’s shares are already on a bit of an upswing, with its stock increasing by 8% at one point on Thursday to $8.94 per share after releasing third-quarter results. While the company’s loss widened to 47 cents per share vs. analyst consensus of 41 cents, Gheit said the company’s financial flexibility has improved on debt reduction through asset sales and equity exchanges and its operating results “significantly improved.”
For newbies: 444,000 net acres / 1280 acres = 350 drilling units. In the core, they will eventually drill at least 24 wells/1280-acre drilling units. 24 x 350 = 8,400 potential gross drilling locations. And 24 may be less than what we will eventually see.

Plus, they are now adding 2580-acre overlapping drilling units.

From The Motley Fool: three impressive numbers from Whiting's 3Q16 earnings report.
  • production for 3Q16 at high end of guidance;
  • free cash flow of $66 million -- any free cash flow is a rarity in the oil industry these days; especially the Bakken (remember, Whiting was the only company in the Bakken who said it could make money on $25 oil); and, 
  • Whiting has increased its production guidance to 47 million boe full year
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Amazon Brick-And-Mortar Stores

Updates

October 30, 2016: I am still overwhelmed by Amazon. I think most folks consider Amazon a company that sells books over the internet. It does. But, its web services is its most profitable business. Web Services is not online retail. This past quarter that division saw its biggest operating profit margin, even after the company reported a whopping 55% jump to $3.2 billion in quarterly revenue

Amazon has three core competencies:
  • online retail
  • Amazone web services (AWS)
  • Prime service
The article notes that
Amazon stepped up its investment this quarter in areas like warehouse build-outs, international expansion, and Prime video content. It's also spending more on shipping and hardware development, all areas of growth that could one day become the fourth largest business for Amazon (alongside online retail, AWS, and Prime service).
Original Post
 
In case you don't have time or the interest to read this post, at least take a look at this: brick-and-mortar Amazon stores

As we come to another end-of-the-week, I think the story that stands out most is the "hysteria" over Amazon missing "estimates" for their 3Q16.  It suggests to me that folks are not paying attention. Two things: Jeff Bezos has never seemed all that interested in profits. In that regard, he was a lot like Steve Jobs.

Second, he puts "all" his cash flow back into his company. 
From an earlier post, the numbers were incredible:
  • Amazon reported earnings that were up more than 200% from the same period last year.
  • Net income was $252 million. That's a "positive" (in the green) income. Not a loss. Not a billion-dollar loss. Not a two-billion-dollar loss. 
  • Revenue from Amazon Web Services soared (their word, not mine) 55%, the biggest year-on-year leap in sales, as prices came down and AWS rolled out new features. 
  • Operating margin at AWS increased to almost 32%.
But it gets better.
  • Amazon forecasts as much as a 27% increase in holiday sales this year, compared to last year, which I assume was a record then. 
  • Amazon expects operating income as high as $1.3 billion in 4Q16 compared with $1.1 billion in 4Q15. 
And it still gets better: Amazon's operating cash flow increased almost 50% for the 12 months ended September, and free cash increased to almost $10 billion. 

Now why did Amazon have such a bad quarter in which earnings were up 200% and its web services soared 55% and so on? Because it was spending record amounts on building the company to exceed customers' expectations:
  • Amazon opened 18 fulfilment centers during this quarter, the biggest growth in its network since 2012;
  • and, a whole bunch of other stuff; but,
  • you get the point. 
Earnings were up more than 200% in a quarter in which he added 18 fulfilment centers.

And then look at this for those who had forgotten: brick-and-mortar Amazon stores.

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NFL Ratings

On October 6, 2016, I wrote: Folks come to NFL games to be entertained, not to be reminded of Kaepernick. Today, CBS Boston posts poll showing that national anthem protests leading cause for NFL ratings drop.

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Along With Hunter S Thompson, One Of My Favorite Personalities

Over at The Spectator: ‘The woman is a disaster!’: Camille Paglia on Hillary Clinton.
Talking to Camille Paglia is like approaching a machine gun: madness to stick your head up and ask a question, unless you want your brain blown apart by the answer, but a visceral delight to watch as she obliterates every subject in sight. Most of the time she does this for kicks. It’s only on turning to Hillary Clinton that she perpetrates an actual murder: of Clinton II’s most cherished claim, that her becoming 45th president of the United States would represent a feminist triumph.
‘In order to run for president of the United States, you have to spend two or three years of your life out on the road constantly asking for money and most women find that life too harsh, too draining,’ Paglia argues. ‘That is why we haven’t had a woman president in the United States — not because we haven’t been ready for one, for heaven’s sakes, for a very long time…’
Hillary hasn’t suffered — Paglia continues — because she is a woman. She has shamelessly exploited the fact: ‘It’s an outrage how she’s played the gender card. She is a woman without accomplishment. “I sponsored or co-sponsored 400 bills.” Oh really? These were bills to rename bridges and so forth. And the things she has accomplished have been like the destabilisation of North Africa, causing refugees to flood into Italy… The woman is a disaster!’
A breath of fresh air.