Friday, August 26, 2016

US 2Q16 GDP At 1.1% -- First Revision (Second Estimate) -- August 26, 2016

Link here at Reuters:
U.S. economic growth was a bit more sluggish than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses aggressively ran down stocks of unsold goods, offsetting a spurt in consumer spending.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its second estimate of GDP. That was slightly down from the 1.2 percent rate reported last month.
The revision also reflected more imports than previously estimated as well as weak spending by state and local governments. The economy grew at a 0.8 percent pace in the first quarter. It grew 1.0 percent in the first half of 2016.
The revision to second-quarter GDP growth was in line with economists' expectations.
The economy has struggled to regain momentum since output started slowing in the last six months of 2015, which puts it in danger of stalling.
And then the article devolves into how well the economy looks going forward.

I assume Janet Yellen had these figures earlier this week. After all, "the revision to second-quarter GDP growth was in line with economists' expectations" and I would assume she considers herself an economist. 

That last phrase: "puts [the economy] in danger of stalling." And the Fed will raise rates when?

The Market

This is pretty cool. Overnight and just before the opening bell, Dow futures had been negative or flat, maybe slightly positive.

Just before the opening bell, we get the bombshell:
  • 2Q16 GDP revised downward, down to 1.1%
  • the economy is in danger of stalling
And the Fed will raise rates when?

I wrote that about an hour ago, then left to go biking. Now, an hour later, I check the market, and it's up 100 points.

Gee. I wonder what can explain the market today? As my dad used to say: you get three guesses and the first two don't count.

Closing: for all the hysteria, the market closed down a whopping 0.3% or about 53 points for the Dow 30. Meaningless. NYSE:
  • new highs: 196
  • new lows: 11
Mid-day trading: the Dow is down about 100 points. NYSE:
  • new highs: 182
  • new lows: 9
Mid-day trading: the Dow is down about 100 points ("after Yellen's speech"). Well, that's a pretty superficial soundbite. I think there's much more to this.
  • the market is looking to correct
  • investors are looking for any excuse to take profits
  • with other news released today (2Q16 GDP revised downward; "serious challenge for the economy"), Yellen's speech is already "old news." If it's not "old news" and she made that statement with the knowledge of the "serious challenge for the economy" and 2Q16 GDP revised downward, and she still talks about raising rates, she is seriously out of touch with reality; 
  • if we close less than 100 points down, that's only "background noise"
Opening. Dow up almost 100 points. NYSE:
  • new highs: 163; XLNX (Nasdaq);
    new lows: 5
The Apple Page

Tim Cook is on the cover of Fast Company this month, with this banner: "Apple's Moment of Truth."


Apple's $53 billion in net income last year was greater than the combined earnings of technology behemoths 
  • Facebook Inc.;
  • Google’s parent Alphabet Inc.;
  • Inc.; and, 
  • Microsoft Corp.
I don't know what others think, but that is simply astounding. Apple's net income is great than the four of those combined. 

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