Wednesday, August 31, 2016

EIA Must Have Read The Blog -- Will Report "Some Stuff" In Near-Real Time; Price Of WTI Falls 3%; Back Below $45 -- August 31, 2016

See energy data below: price of oil falls 3%; now below $45 again. 

From the EIA today:
Starting with today's release of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, EIA is now publishing weekly petroleum export and consumption estimates based on near-real-time export data provided by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Customs).
EIA previously relied on weekly export estimates based on monthly official export data published by the U.S. Census Bureau roughly six weeks following the end of each reporting month.
This new methodology is expected to improve weekly estimates of petroleum consumption (measured as product supplied) by improving estimates of weekly exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and biofuels, which increased from 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2004 to nearly 5 million b/d in 2015. --- EIA
I've been talking about the issue of delayed reporting for quite some time.

For the record: I lost a huge bet some years ago when I said the US would never allow oil to be exported. That may be one of the biggest energy stories in my lifetime. I never thought I would see that in my lifetime, again.

Data points from today's EIA report (some numbers rounded):
  • crude oil refinery inputs: not much change from previous week
  • crude oil imports: 9 million bopd; up slightly from previous week
  • crude oil imports, average over past four weeks: 8.5 million bopd; more than 10% greater than last year, same period
  • Motor gasoline supplied (includes blended): 9.7 million bbls; up slightly
John Kemp's energy tweets today:
  • US commercial crude oil stocks rose 2.3 million bbls; still well above historical peaks
  • although not much change from previous week, the almost 9 million bopd imported crude oil is the fastest rate since September, 2012
  • US gasoline stock surplus versus 2015 and 10-year average continues to narrow (slowly)
  • John Kemp also noted the historic move by EIA to report in "near-real" time

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