Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Tuesday, April 12, 2016; The Chinese Love Ford SUVs; GM? Not So Much

Bloomberg: China is no longer the epicenter of global market activity. So which country is? Article doesn't say. Let's see if comments help: nope. Worthless article. Don't waste your time.

AP: demand for SUVs boosts China auto sales by 10 percent in March. Let's see which auto manufacturers stood out. Only three companies mentioned:
  • GM: deliveries slipped 0.6%
  • Ford: deliveries rose 5%, with SUV sales surging 29%
  • BMW: delivers rose nearly 11%
I guess even the Chinese don't like Government Motors

Tea leaves suggest this is going to be a stellar year for investors. But note, this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. I think the market hinges on the outcome of Doha, April 17, 2016 and the outcome in the rigged election scheduled in the US on/about November 7, 2016.

Oh, by the way, all those stories over the past year about lack of crude oil storage at Cushing, OK, and elsewhere? Never mind or is it, "nevermind?" The free market capitalistic economy that Bernie Sanders disparages has solved the storage problem, also.

Let's go back to that article to post these data points. The storage at St James, LA, which is crucial for North Dakota crude oil:
  • two midstream operators have added at least 13 million bbls of crude storage to the St James ub during the past 8 years
  • there are 12 refineries supplied by the St James hub
  • total crude oil storage at St James is currently just under 32 million bbls with an additional 3 million in maintenance (compare with 80 million bbls at Cushing)
  • NuStar is using 76% of its 9 million-bbl storage capacity
  • Plains is using exactly the same percentage, 76% of their 11 million-bbl storage capacity
  • NuStar is in the process of adding almost another 3/4 million bbls of storage capacity
  • most of NuStar St James terminal is designed for light crude oil (WTI, Bakken)
  • the first rail terminal (70,000 bopd) is mostly contracted to one shipper: EOG; EOG has exclusive use of 50,000 bopd; its rail-loading terminal is at Stanley, ND; EOG's use of CBR has declined; EOG hardly used this terminal in 2015 -- delivering 19 trainloads in 2015 
  • Plains will add another 1.5 million bbls of storage capacity in 2016
  • remember: Texas/Bakken condensate can be sent to western Canada as a diluent; however, Canada might be using natural gas as a diluent rather than Texas condensate
  • EOE's SPR, 2.8 million bbls storage; used by Shell/Saudi Aramco at a cost of $2 million/year to lease
  •  (70 cents/bbl/year)
  • Ergon Terminal: 2 million bbls storage capacity; can handle Aframax size vessels (up to 750,000 bbls)
  • MRO: has a huge 539,000 bopd refinery 20 miles away in Garyville, LA; linked by a company-owned 630,000 bopd pipeline
  • XOM: 400,000 bbls of storage capacity; utilizing only 43% right nw
  • LOCAP: 2.6 million bbls of operational storage; only 32% utilized
  • Capline: 3.5 million bbls of operational storage; 61% being utilized
  • Petroplex: construction of a proposed 10 million bbl storage terminal tied up in court over alleged lack of progress developing the terminal

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