Saturday, December 31, 2016

Gasoline To Increase In Price In Mexico; Then Based On Market -- December 31, 2016

Updates

January 2, 2016: as usual, the MDW blog is foreshadowing what the New York Times will be reporting. The credit goes to the readers who send me the links.

The New York Times is reporting that Mexicans are protesting the increase in the price of gasoline:
Small groups of protesters blockaded some roads and gasoline stations in Mexico on Monday to protest a government price deregulation that sent the price of fuel up by as much as 20 percent over the weekend.
One group blockaded a privately owned gasoline station on Mexico City's main boulevard, shouting: "The people, united, will never be defeated!"
"This will increase the cost of living for all Mexicans. It will make more expensive transportation, basic food stuffs, food, and it will ultimately hit Mexican families," said Rafael Sotocruz, a nurse who was protesting at the station.
On a busy highway leading into the capital from the west, another group blocked traffic and held up a banner reading "Enough already!"
Original Post
 
There have been several stories about gasoline consumption in Mexico in the past few days. Now this:
Mexicans are bracing to kickstart the New Year on a sour note, with protests planned against the government's huge hike in gasoline prices.

President Enrique Pena Nieto has promised that fuel prices will fall thanks to his landmark 2014 energy reform, which ended a seven-decade-old monopoly held by the state-run firm Pemex.

The government plans to end subsidies and let the market dictate prices in March, but Mexicans will feel the pinch at the pump before they start falling.

The finance ministry announced Tuesday that the price of gasoline would increase by as much as 20.1 percent to 0.88 dollars per liter on January 1, while diesel would rise by 16.5 percent to 0.83 dollars.

The price ceiling will be adjusted daily from February 18, before letting supply and demand determine them in March.
  • A gallon = 3.78541 gallons. More or less. 
  • $0.81 x 3.78541 = $3.33 / gallon.
Really? In Mexico?

We're paying about $2.20/gallon here in the DFW, Texas, area.

Interesting Things Happening On The Easternmost Fringe Of The Bakken; Random Look At Three EOG Wells -- December 31, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. 

Some interesting things appear to be happening on the eastern fringe of the Bakken (see this post also). When I look at the "heat map of the Bakken," I could make a case for these three wells being just to the east of core region #6 as designated by Wood Mackenzie at the link. These wells are very close to Ward County (Minot). But it's close. Regardless, we are certainly at the eastern fringe of the Bakken based on drilling activity.

We're going to take a look at an EOG well, #17222. Look how far to the east it is, on the eastern fringe of the Bakken. There are very few wells to the east of these wells:


Now, drilling down, let's take a closer look at 17222, a short lateral, and then two long laterals that were drilled and completed later. Two wells that came very, very close to #17222 were fracked at a later date. #17222 was taken off-line while neighboring wells were taken off-line. Note the production profile of #17222 after it came back on line. The three wells are all middle Bakken wells; also note the names of these wells, paying attention to their chronologic designation (#18, #421, and #422):




The index well: #17222, a short lateral --

Pay attention to water production before and after this well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked. This is most likely due to produced water being injected into #17222 when neighboring wells are being fracked -- see reason why this is done, below in bold.

And, then even more importantly, note the amount of natural gas produced before and after the well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.

From the sundry report dated February 22, 2016, prior to fracking neighboring wells:
EOG is currently executing a downspacing and infill drilling program. During this process the new infill wells are being hydraulically fractured offset to existing/producing wells. The existing wells in close proximity to the new infill wells are shut in during the drilling and completion process. Pressure pulses have been noted in the existing shut in wells during this process. Due to the pressure pulses, sand from the completions in the original wells can become dislodged and enter the wellbore. When sand enters the existing wellbore it can damage pumping equipment and/or plug the wellbore. When this occurs wellbore intervention is required to replace the damaged pumping equipment and may also require the wellbore to be cleaned out, both operations are costly and slow the process of returning offset wells to production.

As a mitigation measure, EOG is requesting approval to fill the existing wellbore with produced water from nearby producing wells. The fluid would increase the hydrostatic pressure in the existing well and assist in counter-acting the pressure pulses and sand influxes impacting the well from the drilling and completion process of the infill wells.

The fluid will be pumped at a very low surface pressure with a fluid pump. Pumping pressures are planned below 500 psi. At or before reaching 500 psi, pumping would cease keeping the pressure below fracture pressure.
Produced water will be transported by truck or pipeline for the process.

17222, 1,769, EOG, Austin 18-21H, Parshall, short lateral, open hole, 2 million lbs, t9/08; cum 897K 11/16: production profile before and after neighboring wells were fracked:


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20163053505354105924651576705
BAKKEN10-20163054345435122224378231436
BAKKEN9-20163054235422144822471605458
BAKKEN8-20163151655225202819711425356
BAKKEN7-20163150124947277820221281551
BAKKEN6-201614176416851849860626152
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-201600370000
BAKKEN1-201620169017131042263204795
BAKKEN12-201531270427069233372370777
BAKKEN11-201530235723486927415132050
BAKKEN10-2015312129213666254811671197

Two neighboring wells that were fracked/tested June, 2016, both long laterals:
  • 32417, 257 (no typo), EOG, Austin 421-2821H, 44 stages, 17.2 million lbs:
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016302249422469794722494171144896
BAKKEN10-20163127818278111046524826849515831
BAKKEN9-20163028356283791222620680149615237
BAKKEN8-20163129096291051647017789138823407
BAKKEN7-20163131236312122585019024786010671
BAKKEN6-201614875686341858218821164513

  • 32418, 681, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall, 42 stages, 16.3 million lbs;, t6/16; cum 170K 11/16:
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016251991519929331419175146434175
BAKKEN10-2016313281832820576928769988118389
BAKKEN9-2016303622936264761627315198766957
BAKKEN8-20163138248382331147624480192544726
BAKKEN7-20163135299352452019620977869011797
BAKKEN6-20161479857874984918331244386

Random Update Of An Old Fidelity (MDU) Well Restored To Production By Kaiser-Francis Oil; EOG Reports Fracking With Almost 23 Million Lbs Sand -- December 31, 2016

Kaiser-Francis:
  • 17641, 448, Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Fladeland 44-31H, Sanish field, t7/09; cum 113K 11/16; this well was taken off-line December, 2014 (though there is record of 3 bbls of production 5/15); in 11/16, this well was "cleaned out" and brought back into production by Kaiser-Francis. 
Mega-Fracks / High Intensity Fracks: Note. I don't have time to check completions on all wells. When I do check completions, I update them, and if the completions are noteworthy, I might post a stand-alone post on them. This is just one random example. Note this EOG well,  22.72 million lbs of sand; 58 stages:
  • 30442, 1,135, EOG, Shell 17-2819H, 58 stages, 22.72 million lbs, t10/16; cum 30K 11/16;
The sister well on this pad also used a lot of sand:
  • 30444, 407, EOG, Shell 15-2819H, 49 stages, 19.84 million lbs, t10/16; cum 20K 11/16;
Two EOG wells in the same section, on a 2-well pad, just to the east:
  • 30469, 1,203, EOG, Shell 22-2819H, 54 stages, 22.03 million lbs, t10/16; cum 43K 10/16;
  • 30781, 1,211, EOG, Shell 23-2820H, 49 stages, 19.84 million lbs, t10/16; cum 36K 11/16;
In addition to how much sand EOG used on these wells, note how far east these wells are, on the fringe of the Bakken (see this post also):



I can never remember this stuff so I'm posting it again, from an earlier post, October 15, 2016:
Start with this: each hopper car carries 100 tons of fracking sand.

Some data points for newbies:
  • the shale revolution began with fracking sand, maybe 500,000 pounds per well in one stage. BEXP broke new ground when they began routinely using 4 million lbs to frack a well. Since then, EOG has taken the lead. 
  • EOG is using upwards of 30 million lbs of sand to frack a well in the Permian, others using similar amounts in the STACK.
  • operators in the Bakken appear to be using about 8 million lbs as the standard, though there are outliers, mostly at 10 million lbs, but there are some Bakken wells fracked with as much as 20 million lbs (rare).
  • there appears to be a movement away from ceramic (incredibly expensive)
  • one rail hopper car can carry 100 tons of fracking sand.
  • a unit train is generally 115 cars. Some are as long as 130 cars.
  • it takes 4 - 5 18-wheelers to empty a single hopper car.
  • 30 million lbs of sand (one Permian well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 150 hopper cars = 750 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car). 
  • 4 million lbs of sand (one Bakken well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 20 hopper cars = 100 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car).
 I often make simple arithmetic errors. Let me know if I've made an error here.
So how many trucks of fracking sand for a well fracked with 20 million lbs?
  • 4 million lbs = 100 18-wheelers
  • 20 million lbs = 500 18-wheelers 
And that's why Job Service North Dakota is seeing an increase in job openings for those requiring a commercial driver's license (CDL). 

Random Update Of Statoil Brown Wells In Alger Field -- December 31, 2016

I follow the Statoil Brown wells at this post.

These four Brown wells (#27003, #27004, #27005, #27006) all have a production profile similar to #27005. In addition, another older Brown well (#20790) has the same production profile. Those five Statoil Brown wells are all on the same pad. Obviously they must have been doing some pad work in September. Note the production in 9/16; there is nothing in the file report to explain what was going on. The company says the wells were on-line for the full month, but note the production:


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201630395636944250000
BAKKEN10-20162426412596308920091239770
BAKKEN9-201630162171381554331521
BAKKEN8-20161513491336120117031851518
BAKKEN7-2016312927296431903693690
BAKKEN6-2016292945297731211541540
BAKKEN5-201631342934023521112211220

Huge Miss And Other Stuff -- December 31, 2016

I cannot believe I forgot to post this link. I thought it was the biggest story of the week when a reader sent it to me. I was saving it to post at the right spot, right time, and then I completely forgot about it. Scrolling through the top stories over the past year reminded me that I had forgotten to post the story.

This is huge.

It is now being reported "everywhere," and I assume the stories are almost the same. I will link the story as posted by The Grand Forks Herald:
A group of researchers in Grand Forks can now fly unmanned aircraft to new lengths—beyond what their eyes can see.
The Federal Aviation Administration has granted permission to the Northern Plains UAS Test Site to conduct beyond-visual-line-of-sight operations at Grand Sky technology park on Grand Forks Air Force Base.
The permission, known as a certificate of authorization, allows test site staff to fly unmanned aircraft systems, also called drones, without the use of a chase plane. Chase planes are piloted aircraft that follow drones during flight to maintain a sightline between the drone and a human in order to avoid midair conflicts.

"Every time that we go up on a flight, we're sending up two aircraft," said Nicholas Flom, executive director at the Northern Plains UAS Test Site. "It doesn't make any sense. That kind of defeats the entire purpose of an unmanned aircraft if I have to send up a second aircraft to go along with that."
Test site personnel won't be able to retire the chase planes just yet. It will be about three to four months before they can take to skies without one because Grand Sky needs to complete technology upgrades so it can link to the base's digital radar system.
This is a big, big story, and again, another first for North Dakota, as far as I know.

**********************
Apologist For Putin

Dr Chris Miller has an excellent essay in today's Wall Street Journal, "The Survival of Putin's Economy." Dr Miller is associate director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale University and the author of The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy: Mikhail Gorbachev and the Collapse of the USSR, University of North Carolina Press.

In a required course in religion in my first year of college, I first heard the word "existentialism." I had trouble understanding it throughout that course. Now, almost 50 years later I understand it very, very well, and I find it an incredibly useful word to use when discussing geo-politics. I don't hear this word used much by television talking heads (in fact, I don't recall hearing that word ever on MSNBC "Morning Joe." (There's a reason for that which is somewhat counterintuitive.)

Reminiscing: my declared major when entering college required a huge amount of biology and chemistry and one year of calculus (which college bound students can now take in their senior year of high school). The college required one course in religion in the first year. It was my most difficult subject; and, at the time, I don't think I understood "any" of it. I do not remember whether I enjoyed that course or not. I do remember the professor as a most unusual individual but incredibly personal and understanding; I assume he had a doctorate in divinity but at the time I would not have known, given my lack of curiosity in such matters. I remember him only vaguely -- his physical attributes -- short, glasses, tinny voice -- but I remember vividly the first time he handed out "blue books (?)" -- those 10-page narrow-lined pamphlets that were/are (?) the mainstay for essays. We were instructed to write an essay interpreting a piece of music (Simon and Garfunkel's "I Am A Rock") based on the lectures he had given the past semester. Wow. Up until then I had only listened to country music for the most part and had never heard this song.

In the USAF, one of the most impressive/important/memorable courses I ever took was Stephen Covey's Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Habit #5 (seek first to understand, then to be understood) was the most difficult for me to figure out what Covey was saying. It is perhaps the most important of his seven habits.

Putting this altogether helps me understand the perspective of my doppelganger 65-year-old white Russian walking the streets of Moscow today.

*********************************
Quantum Theory
A Note for the Granddaughters

This past week I've been spending a lot of time reading and re-reading books on quantum theory -- just mainstream stuff, nothing of an "academic level," if that makes sense: books you see at Barnes and Nobel, for example, or articles one sees in The Wall Street Journal.

That's what led me to post this earlier:
9. Biggest disappointment of 2016; physicists were no closer to understanding quantum theory  in 2016 than they were in 2015. Or 2014. Or 2013. Or 2012. Or 2011. This one we can't blame on George W. Bush although the fact that he was not intellectually curious did not help.
Today, of all things, there is a half-page book review in today's "Review" section of The Wall Street Journal: "A Perfect Fit" by Gino Negre reviewing A Fortunate Universe, by Geraint F. Lewis and Luke A. Barnes. I will order the book from Amazon later today.

My hunch is that it is very similar to The Privileged Planet: How Our Place in the Cosmos is Designed for Discovery, Guillermo Gonzalez and Jay Richards, c. 2004. 

The review notes: a tiny tweak to the mass of quarks would yield a universe with nothing but hydrogen and helium.

By the way, in the same "Review" section, a short essay: quantum theory can help us teach tolerance. The writer begins: "Complementarity is the idea that there can be several different ways of describing a single system, each useful and internally consistent, but mutually incompatible. It first emerged as a surprising feature of quantum theory, but, following Niels Bohr, I believe that its wisdom is much more widely applicable."

By the way, for someone with a fairly good background in this subject, the book I would recommend: The Age Of Entanglement: When Quantum Physics Was Reborn, Louisa Gilder, c. 2008.  

****************************
Lunch

Comments On 2016; Comments And Predictions On 2017 -- December 30, 2016

This is going to be a rambling note for the archives, looking back on 2016 and thoughts on 2017.

I don't know if it's going to be a long note, or a really, really long note. I don't even know if it's still in progress. Just some idle rambling on a Saturday morning; some predictions; some observations; some comments.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. It's also not a dance site.

1. The US stock market. Prediction: the overall market (Dow 30 / S&P 500) will be higher in October, 2017, than it is now. What it does between now and then is anybody's guess. I'm sticking with my 30-plus-year investment strategy.

2. The coming trade with China. Comments: this is all about plastic toys for US holidays (mostly religious holidays); clothes; and, iPhones. The coming trade war with China is not an existential issue for either country. China needs the US more than the US needs China when it comes to trade.

3. Spy vs spy. Comments: when the market doesn't react to a US president expelling 35 Russian spies diplomats and closing two Russian "compounds," that tells me everything I need to know. Congress loves these kinds of issues. 

4. Coming arms race with Russia. Comments: it's a given that the US military needs to be re-built after eight-plus years of neglect. Even Russia knows that. This, too, is a non-story, except for investors canny enough to know where to invest.

5. Chinese build-up in the South China Sea. Comments: the US had the Monroe Doctrine, 1823. The Chinese have their doctrine, 2016. It's a regional thing. Hopefully the new President will figure that out.

6. The Bakken. Observations: a couple of years of relative quiet, 2015, 2016; more and more infrastructure was put in place in the past two years. Prediction for 2017: slow and steady. Just not as slow as 2016, but just as steady. A no-brainer: operators will get their DUCs lined up.

7. Energy: it might take a year, but if it's not obvious by the end of 2017 that America is the new center of energy -- overtaking the entire Mideast without the fighting -- it will never be obvious to some folks. Crude oil, LNG, and coal exports will  increase -- that genie is out of the bottle.

8. Pipelines. Whatever.

9. Biggest disappointment of 2016; physicists were no closer to understanding quantum theory  in 2016 than they were in 2015. Or 2014. Or 2013. Or 2012. Or 2011. This one we can't blame on George W. Bush although the fact that he was not intellectually curious did not help.

10. Biggest surprise in 2016. Goes without saying.

11. EU: irrelevant. Brexit: kick this can down the road for another year.

12. UN: even more irrelevant. Watch for the "shoe dropping on the UN" once Trump is sworn in. It's not gonna be a pretty picture.Well, maybe it is.

13. The Mideast: as much as PEOTUS Trump wants to minimize US involvement in the Mideast, the US will reverse Obama's Mideast strategy. Oh, that's right. Obama had no Mideast strategy. Trump will punt this one to his generals.

14. Back to investing: investing in oil service companies (HAL, SLB, BHI, GE, frackers, etc) will be a better strategy than investing in oil companies. Re-read the disclaimer.

15. Biggest decision for Putin: whether to test Trump on Crimean, Ukraine, Kaliningrad.

16. Sanctuary cities. I've discussed this before. For me, it's a non-issue. I think Texans would love it if New Mexico declared itself a sanctuary state.

Top Stories By Month For 2016 Have Been Compiled -- December 31, 2016

Top stories by month for 2016 have been compiled. If you go to the link, one can quickly scroll through the links by month.

From this list, the top stories for 2016 will be selected. I plan to post that list Sunday, January 1, 2017, but with a lot of family commitments, it could slip to Monday, January 2, 2017.

Starting January 1, 2017, and running through January 20, 2017, I hope to post one YouTube video on a daily basis to ring in the new US president and his administration.

More Data On Mexico's Gasoline Imports -- December 31, 2016

The original story was at this post.

Now, additional data is provided, from Platts. Data points:
  • Mexico's record-low refiner production and growing consumer demand: pushed US gasoline exports there to a new high in October
  • gasoline exports to Mexico climbed 1.86 million bbls to 12.08 million bbls in October
  • the previous peak was 11.42 million bbls in December, 2010
  • Mexico is by far the largest importer of US gasoline; take 46% of the 177 million bbls of finished gasoline exported by the US in October, 2016
  • exports push the price of gasoline higher
  • outright price of Gulf Coast pipeline-delivered conventional gasoline, $1.71, highest price since August 18, 2015
  • prime reason for increased exports to Mexico: chronic underinvestment in downstream investments over the years
  • Mexico's refined product production is at its lowest point since Pemex started tracking data in 1995
  • this, despite domestic sales climbing to a record high
  • Mexico is expanding its main import terminal, the port of Tuxpan on Mexico's east coast
This won't be the top energy story of 2016, and it may not even make the top ten list, but it's a huge story and it's going to get much bigger. 

New Wells -- 1Q17

New data, for a new quarter (and a new year), will begin on January 2, 2017.

Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10


Friday, March 31, 2017: 81 for the month; 140 for the quarter
None.

Thursday, March 30, 2017: 81 for the month; 140 for the quarter
None. 
Wednesday, March 29, 2017: 81 for the month; 140 for the quarter
None.
Tuesday, March 28, 2017: 81 for the month; 140 for the quarter
None.

Monday, March 27, 2017: 81 for the month; 140 for the quarter
31962, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19E2, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31963, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19AXB, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32479, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, Bear Creek, no production data,

Sunday, March 26, 2017: 78 for the month; 137 for the quarter
31705, 2,079, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7 million lbs, t10/16; cum 125K 1/17;
31961, SI/NC, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32480, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34E, Bear Creek, no production data,

Saturday, March 25, 2017: 75 for the month; 134 for the quarter
32423, 320, Petro Harvester, FLX1 22-15 163-91B, Flaxton, a Madison well, 19 stages (18 successful), 1.9 million lbs, t1/17; cum 9K 1/17;
32481, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34A, Bear Creek, no production data,
32985, 1,025, Enerplus, Desert Rose 149-92-35A-04H TF, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum --

Friday, March 24, 2017: 72 for the month; 131 for the quarter
None.

Thursday, March 23, 2017: 72 for the month; 131 for the quarter
None.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017: 72 for the month; 131 for the quarter
32328, 2,053, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, 35 stages 7.1 million lbs, t10/16; cum 112K 1/17;
32499, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34EXH2-N, Bear Creek, no production data,

Tuesday, March 21, 2017: 70 for the month; 129 for the quarter
19947, conf, Trendwell Energy Corporation, Matter State 3-17H, Woburn; see this post for more information;
32500, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, no production data,


Monday, March 20, 2017: 68 for the month; 127 for the quarter
29601, 250, Lime Rock Resources, Kenneth Stroh 3-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet, middle Bakken, 16 stages, 2.4 million lbss, t9/16; cum 35K 1/17;
31706, 3,771, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages; 6.7 million lbs; s8/16; cum 129K 1/17 after four months)
32501, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, no production data,


Sunday, March 19, 2017: 65 for the month; 124 for the quarter
32331, 2,204, BR, CCU Red River 1-2-16 MBH, Corral Creek, 29 stages; 5.6 million lbs, t/17; cum 232K 2/18;
32502, SI/NC, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-S, Bear Creek, no production data,
32883, SI/NC, North Range Resources, LLC, Placid 28-1V, Rough Rider, target: Duperow, Mission Canyon, Souris River; spacing 160 acres; a "vertical well" but the target bottom hole will be 1301 feet north of well and 1058 feet east of well; no production data, 

Saturday, March 18, 2017: 62 for the month; 121 for the quarter
31715, 3,465, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-3TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7.13 million lbs, t10/16; cum 127K 1/17;

Friday, March 17, 2017: 61 for the month; 120 for the quarter
31711, 3,810, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, 35 stages, 7.1 million lbs, t10/16; cum 150K 1/17;
32753, 2,556, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3H, Bear Creek, t10/17; cum --

Thursday, March 16, 2017: 59 for the month; 118 for the quarter
32754, conf, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3FXG, Bear Creek, no production data,

Wednesday, March 15, 2017: 58 for the month; 117 for the quarter
32087, 2,133, QEP, KDM 6-7-6BHD, Grail, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t9/16; cum 88K 1/17;
32105, 1,763, QEP, KDM 5-7-6BHD, Grail, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 84K 1/17;
32107, 1,541, QEP, KDM 1-7-6T2HD, Grail, Three Forks second bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t1/17; cum 83K 1/17;
32343, 1,119, QED, KDM 1-7-6T3HD, Grail, Three Forks third bench, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 70K 1/17;
32344, 2,251, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T2HD, Grail, Three Forks second bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/16; cum 90K 1/17;
32345, 618, QEP, KDM 3-7-6T3HD, Grail, Three Forks third bench, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t10/16; cum 67K 1/17;

Tuesday, March 14, 2017: 52 for the month; 111 for the quarter
30828, 597, WPX, BEHR 30-31HU, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 6.1 million lbs; t1/17; cum 20K over 23 days;
31707, 2,546, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-4TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t9/16; cum 115K 1/17;
31710, 2,426, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7.1 million lbs, t10/16; cum 139K 1/17;
32329, 2,861 (NDIC has a typo), Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/16; cum 156K 1/17;
32755, SI/NC, XTO, Bear Creek 31X-3BXC, Bear Creek, no production data,

Monday, March 13, 2017: 47 for the month; 106 for the quarter
30825, 401, WPX, Behr 30-31HTL, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t1/17; cum 22K after 23 days;
30826, 571, WPX, Behr 30-31H1, Reunion Bay, 40 stages, 6 million lbs, t1/17; cum 30K after 23 days;
32326, 2,420, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1H, Twin Valley, 35 stages, 7.1 million lbs, t10/16; cum 116K after 4 months;

Sunday, March 12, 2017: 44 for the month; 103 for the quarter
None.

Saturday, March 11, 2017: 44 for the month; 103 for the quarter
32450, SI/NC, SM Energy, Gracious God 15B-20HS,  Ambrose, no production data,
32460, 1,380, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-11, Blue Buttes, t3/17; cum 206K 2/18;

Friday, March 10, 2017: 42 for the month; 101 for the quarter
31399, 795, EOG, Van Hook 36-35H, Parshall, t4/17; cum 136K 2/18;
32459, 990, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-10, Blue Buttes, t3/17; cum 176K 2/18;

Thursday, March 9, 2017: 40 for the month; 99 for the quarter

25410, 1,416, QEP, MHA 1-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, t4/17; cum 106K 2/18;
32449, SI/NC, SM Energy, Donna Buddy 15B-20HN, Amrose, no production data,
32458, 1,084, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-9, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum 88K 2/18;

Wednesday, March 8, 2017: 37 for the month; 96 for the quarter
25409, 588, QEP, MHA 3-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, t4/17; cum 93K 2/18;
27596, 509, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-31D-30-2H, Little Knife, 50 stages, 4.8 million lbs, t12/16; cum 30K 1/17;
31708, 3,101, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-31H, Twin Valley, 35 stages, 6.9 million lbs, t9/16; cum 116K 1/17;
32119, 477, EOG, Van Hook 39-3526H, Parshall, t4/17; cum 107K 2/18;
32457, 1,438, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-9, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum 170K 2/18;
32462, SI/NC, SM Energy, Hank Katie 15-20HN, Ambrose, no production data,

Tuesday, March 7, 2017: 31 for the month; 90 for the quarter
25408, 1,174, QEP, MHA 2-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 161K 2/18;
31704, 3,271, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-1TFH, Twin Valley, t9/16; cum 120K in four months;
32456, 1,361, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-8, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum 251K 2/18;

Monday, March 6, 2017: 28 for the month; 97 for the quarter
25407, 606, QEP, MHA 4-10-14H-149-91, Heart Butte, t4/17; cum 94K 2/18;
29790, SI/NC, Enerplus, Saguaro 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, no production data,
31712, 2,274, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1H, Twin Valley, t9/16; cum 135K 1/17;
31948, 1,103, Whiting, Frank 44-7PHU, Bell, t9/16; cum 68K 1/17;
32327, 3,149, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFH, Twin Valley, t9/16; cum 121K 1/17;
32463, SI/NC, SM Energy, Milt Sandra 15-20HS, Ambrose, no production data,

Sunday, March 5, 2017: 22 for the month; 91 for the quarter
31187, SI/NC, Enerplus, Wooly Torch 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, no production data,
31570, 644, Whiting, Hecker 11-18-2PH, Bell, t10/16; cum 49K 1/17;

Saturday, March 4, 2017: 19 for the month; 89 for the quarter
31161, 1,560, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-22A-27-11H, McGregory Buttes, t9/16; cum 115K 1/17;
32874, 1,511, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-27-22-13H, Sand Creek, t12/16; cum 1/17;

Friday, March 3, 2017: 17 for the month; 86 for the quarter
31288, 903, Enerplus, Ocotillo 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 178K 2/18;
31571, 1,293, Whiting, Frank 24-7PH, Bell, t9/16; cum 99K 1/17;
31947, 871, Whiting, Frank 34-7-2PH, Bell, t9/16; cum 68K 1/17;
32875, 1,328, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-27-22-12H, Sand Creek, t12/16; cum 39K 1/17;
32937, GI, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-92-24V-1, Ross, a Birdbear well, Birdbear well dry, PGI for the Bakken well; 

Thursday, March 2, 2017: 12 for the month; 81 for the quarter
31697, 1,326, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-22A-27-12H, McGregory Buttes, t9/16; cum 85K 1/17;
32739, 375, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lowe 7-18-19-158N-99W TFH, Ellisville, t12/16; cum 22K 1/17;
32876, 2,813, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-27-22-4H, Sand Creek, t12/16; cum 55K 1/17;
32938, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-92-24V-2, Ross, a Birdbear well; no production data,

Wednesday, March 1, 2017: 9 for the month; 77 for the quarter
31980, 2,137, Statoil, Lougheed 2-11 XE 1TFH, Todd, t6/17; cum 48K 12/17;
32080, 1,213, QEP, KDM 5-7-6THD, Grail, t9/16; cum 63K 12/16 (less than four months);
32083, 722, QEP, KDM 2-7-6T3HD, Grail, t9/16; cum 54K 12/16 (less than four months);
32085, 1,459, QEP, KDM 7-7-6BHD, Grail, t9/16; cum 70K 12/16 (less than four months);
32086, 2,153, QEP, KDM 4-7-6T2HD, Grail, t9/16; cum 78K 12/16 (less than four months);
32424, 302, Petro Harvester Operating, FLX1 22-15-163-91 D, Flaxton, a Madison well, t1/17; cum --
32737, 167, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lowe 6-18-19-158N-99W TFH, Ellisville, t12/16; cum 7K over 18 days;
32738, 206, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Amerlia Grace 5-7-6-158N-99W TFH, Ellisville, t12/16; cum 5K over 20 days;
32877, 1,487, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-27-22-11H, Sand Creek, t12/16; cum 36K 1/17 (40 days)

Tuesday, February 28, 2017: 27 for the month; 69 for the quarter
None.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday, February 25 - 27, 2017: 27 for the month; 69 for the quarter
None.

Friday, February 24, 2017: 27 for the month; 69 for the quarter
None.

Thursday, February 23, 2017: 27 for the month; 69 for the quarter
32605, 1,995, CLR, Charolais North Federal 1-3H1, first bench of Three Forks , Elm Tree; 46 stages, 10 million lbs; bottom hole location 204' FSL & 1320' FEL, SWSE 10-153-94; 1280-acres; sections 3/10-153-94; t9/15/16; as of 12/16: cum 101K oil and 122 MCF natural gas = 121,474 boe as of 12/16; oil / natural gas split: 83% / 17%.
32606, 2,305, CLR, Brangus North 1-2H2, Elm Tree, second bench of the Three Forks, 46 stages, 10 million lbs; 19 days of total drilling; within the target zone 94% of the total 9,852' of lateral section; this well is easily exceeding a 900,000 EUR type curve; link here; additional information here; and here; cattle names here; bottom hole location 236' FSL & 2014' FWL, SESW 11-153-94; March, 2016, a name change from Brangus Federal 1-2H1 to Brangus North 1-2H2; 1280-acre unit, sections 2/11-153-94; t9/2/16; as of 12/16: cum 152K oil and 192 MCF natural gas = 184,550 boe; oil/natural gas split: 83% / 17%.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017: 25 for the month; 67 for the quarter
None.

Three-day weekend, Tuesday, February 21, 2017: 25 for the month; 67 for the quarter
31480, 1,703, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 12-17 5T, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t8/16; cum 121K 12/16;
31481, 1,480, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston. 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 113K 12/16;
31482, 25 (no typo), Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 12-17 7t, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t8/16; cum 91K 12/16;
31483, 958, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 13-17 8T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 81K 12/16;
31484, 1,660, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 14-17 9B, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 160K 12/16;
31485, 1,379, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 14-17 10T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 117K 12/16;
31486, 1,752, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 14-17 11BX, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t9/16; cum 137K 12/16;

Friday, February 16, 2017: 18 for the month; 60 for the quarter
None

Thursday, February 16, 2017: 18 for the month; 60 for the quarter
31607, 1,289, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 3T, Siverston, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t8/16; cum 124K 12/16;
31608, 1,799, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 4B, Siverston, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t9/16; cum 219K 10/17;
31670, 2,063, CLR, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages, 14 million lbs, t8/16; cum 166K 10/17;

Wednesday, February 15, 2017: 15 for the month; 57 for the quarter
None.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017: 15 for the month; 57 for the quarter
31606, 1,722, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 2B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t8/16; cum 145K 12/17;   

Monday, February 13, 2017: 14 for the month; 56 for the quarter
32905, 1,984, Statoil, Charlie Sorenson 17-8 XE 1H-R, Alger, 7K over the first month; t12/16; cum 109K 12/17;


Sunday, February 12, 2017: 13 for the month; 55 for the quarter
None.

Saturday, February 11, 2017: 13 for the month; 55 for the quarter
None.

Friday, February 10, 2017: 13 for the month; 55 for the quarter
30509, 2,216, Hess, BB-Eide-LE-151-95-3328H-1, Blue Buttes, t1/17; cum 225K 10/17;

Thursday, February 9, 2017: 12 for the month; 54 for the quarter
32765, 111, SM Energy, Thompson Bros. Federal 2B-17HN, Burg, t11/17; cum --

Wednesday, February 8, 2017: 11 for the month; 53 for the quarter
30507, 1,093, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-6, Blue Buttes, t12/16; cum --

Tuesday, February 7, 2017: 10 for the month; 52 for the quarter
None.

Monday, February 6, 2017: 10 for the month; 52 for the quarter
30505, 1,052, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-4, Blue Buttes, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t1/17; cum 188K 10/17;
30506, 893, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-5, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, Blue Buttes, t1/17; cum 7K over 5 days;
31964, SI/NC, XTO, George Federal 21X19E, Lost Bridge, no production data,

Sunday, February 5, 2017: 7 for the month; 49 for the quarter
30504, 1,136, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-3, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t12/16; cum 201K 10/17;
31965, SI/NC, XTO, George Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, no production data,

Saturday, February 4, 2017: 5 for the month; 47 for the quarter
None.

Friday, February 3, 2017: 5 for the month; 47 for the quarter
27595, 920, Petro-Hunt, Marinenko 145-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, 50 stages; 4.9 million lbs, t11/16; cum 88K 10/17;
31515, 150, CLR, Topeak 9-12H1, Brooklyn, 30 stages; 8.9 million lbs, t8/16; cum 23K 12/16;
31966, SI/NC, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, no production data,

Thursday, February 2, 2017: 2 for the month; 44 for the quarter
31514, 256, CLR, Topeka 10-12H, Brooklyn, 30 stages, 8.5 million lbs, t8/16; cum 33K 11/16;
Wednesday, February 1, 2017: 1 for the month; 43 for the quarter
32766, 138, SM Energy, Thompson Bros Federal 2B-17HN, Burg, t11/17; cum --

Tuesday, January 31, 2017: 42 for the month; 42 for the quarter
None.

Monday, January 30, 2017: 42 for the month; 42 for the quarter
31904, 900, BR, CCU Golden Creek 3-1-26TFH, Corral Creek, t1/17; cum 152K 10/17;

Sunday, January 29, 2017: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter
31905, 1.065, BR, CCU Golden Creek 2-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum 217K 10/17;

Saturday, January 28, 2017
: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter
32679, 2,385, WPX, Caribou 33-34HG, Reunion Bay, t3/17; cum 152K 10/17;
32728, 165, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Suitor, Little Muddy, t11/16; cum 2K over 52 days;

Friday, January 27, 2017: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter
None.

Thursday, January 26, 2017: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter
31687, 2,002, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H,  Epping, t8/16; cum 96K 11/16; spud, April 30, 2016; TD, May 10, 2016;
32750, 573, Enerplus, Everest 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum 128K 10/17;
32767, 2,759, Petroshale, Petroshale US 8H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t2,759; cum 182K 10/17;

Wednesday, January 25, 2017: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter
31686, 1,957, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H, Stockyard Creek, 40 stages, 10.6 million lbs, Whiting's P Bibler wells are tracked here, t8/16; cum 212K 10/17;
32727, PNC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Suitor 3-13-24-158N-101W, Little Muddy, no production data, 

Tuesday, January 24, 2017: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter
32678, 2,123, WPX, Caribou 33-34HG, Reunion Bay, t3/17; cum 160K 10/17;
32751, 417, Enerplus, Denali 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum 71K 12/17;

Monday, January 23, 2017: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter
31688, 1,418, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H3, Epping Three Forks first bench permit, 33 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t8/16; cum 85K 11/16; spud, May 12, 2016; TD, May 23, 2016;
31752, dry, Armstrong Operating, Johnson 1-23, wildcat, NESW 23-161-86;
32733, 2,008, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-3H, Lost Bridge, t5/17; cum 120K 10/17;

Sunday, January 22, 2017: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter
32677, 2,520, WPX, Caribou 33-34HDL, Mandaree, t3/17; cum 238K 10/17;
32734, 2,654, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-3H, Lost Bridge, t3/17; cum 219K 10/17; 

Saturday, January 21, 2017: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter
31685, 1,714, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H3, Stockyard Creek, Three Forks first bench permit, t8/16; cum 81K 11/16; spud, April 17, 2017; TD, 27, 2017;
32527, 343, Enerplus, Robin 148-92-23B-24H, Heart Butte, t5/17; cum 43K 10/17;
32695, 295, SM Energy, Owan 14B-22HN, Burg, t10/16; cum 10K 11/16;
32735, 2,600, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-13H, Lost Bridge, t3/17; cum 220K 10/17;

Friday, January 20, 2017: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter
None.  

Thursday, January 19, 2017: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter
32528, 1,065, Enerplus, Finch 148-92-22A-21H, Heart Butte, t5/17; cum 79K 10/17;
32736, 3,031, Newfield, Lost Bridge Federal 148-96-9-4-4HLW, Lost Bridge, t2/17; cum 208K 10/17;

Wednesday, January 18, 2017: 20 for the month; 20 for the quarter
28998, 1,880, CLR, Radermecher 4-22H2, Camel Butte, 39 stages; 11 million lbs, t2/17; cum 244K 10/17;

Tuesday, January 17, 2017: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter
28991, 2,120, CLR, Radermecher 2-22H1, Camel Butte, 39 stages; 17 million lbs, t2/17; cum 270K 10/17;

Monday, January 16, 2017: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter
31906, 1,670, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum 179K 10/17;

Sunday, January 15, 2017: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter
28990, 1,572, CLR, Radermecher 3-22H, Camel Butte, t2/17; cum 58K 10/17;
32042, 1,212, Whiting, Gullikson 14-35H, Glass Bluff, t7/16; cum 111K 10/17;
32043, 1,286, Whiting, Gullikson 44-34HU, Glass Bluff, 35 stages, 9.9 million lbs, t7/16; cum 142K 10/17;

Saturday, January 14, 2017: 14 for the month; 14 for the quarter
26364, 1,645, QEP, MHA 2-28-29H-148-92, Heart Butte, t7/16; cum 107K 10/17;
31334, 895, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 15TX, Siverston, 4 sections, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t7/16; cum 225K 10/17;

Friday, January 13, 2017: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter
None.

Thursday, January 12, 2017: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter
31338, 1,260, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 15TX Three Forks, 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, Siverston, t7/16; cum 160K 10/17;

Wednesday, January 11, 2017: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter
None.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter
31335, 1,719, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 14B, Siverston, 36 stages; 4 million lbs, t7/16; cum 225K 10/17;

Monday, January 9, 2017: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter
31336, 747, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 13T, Siverston, Three Forks first bench; 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t7/16 cum 144K 10/17;

Sunday, January 8, 2017: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter
None

Saturday, January 7, 2017: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter
31337, 1,179, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 12B, Siverston, t7/16; cum 195K 10/17;
29556, SI/NC, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea,

Friday, January 6, 2017: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter
32381, conf, BR, Hawktail 11-11MBH-ULW, -- off confidential list according to NDIC, but data not reported by this date

Thursday, January 5, 2017: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter
32680, 1,205, Hess, HA-Link-152-95-3526H-6, Hawkeye, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs;  t11/16; cum 128K 10/17;
32712, SI/NC, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 5H, Patent Gate, no production data,

Wednesday, January 4, 2017: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter
32681, 912, Hess, HA-Link-152-95-3526H-7, Hawkeye, t12/16; cum 95K 10/17;

Tuesday, January 3, 2017: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter
31333, 247 (no typo), Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 10T, Siverston, TF Bench 1, 36 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t7/16; cum 182K 10/17;
32470, 328, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Suitor 2-13-24-158N-101W, Little Muddy, t11/16; cum 89K 10/17;
32682, 1,143 Hess, HA-Link-152-95-3526H-7, Hawkeye, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t12/16; cum 170K 10/17;

Monday, January 2, 2017: 1 for the month; 1 for the quarter
None

Sunday, January 1, 2017: 1 for the month; 1 for the quarter
32391, 1,059, Liberty Resources, Anderson 156-97-4-9-2MBH, Ray, 33 stages; 5.9 million lbs, t7/16; cum 127K 10/17;

Week 52: December 25, 2016 -- December 31, 2016

Operations
Natural gas production from the Madison formation

Bakken economy
Worker shortage looming in the Bakken? Update

Miscellaneous
First very large ethane carrier (VLEC) launches from Houston
Mexico jumps to fourth place among world's largest consumers of gasoline
Mexico is now a net importer of crude oil from the US
Record snow in the Bakken
Putting the Bakken decline rate in perspective

Active Rigs In North Dakota Steady At 39 -- December 31, 2016

Active rigs:


12/31/201612/31/201512/31/201412/31/201312/31/2012
Active Rigs3961170187183

Fake News And The Washington Post -- December 31, 2016

Updates

January 3, 2017: Washington Post  completely changes story; in-line with Trump -- Russian government hackers do not appear to have targeted Vermont utility say people close to investigation. This is their mea culpa:
The Post initially reported incorrectly that the country’s electric grid had been penetrated through a Vermont utility. After Burlington Electric released its statement saying that the potentially compromised laptop had not been connected to the grid, The Post immediately corrected its article and later added an editor’s note explaining the change.
January, 2, 2017: Obama, Hillary, DNC, are being played the fools. Now, The Washington Post will report story Tuesday that Russians had nothing to do with hacking Vermont utility.

January 2, 2017: Washington Post said to retract story, but editor only notes a change in the lede. The headline and the rest of the story appear to be unchanged.
 
Original Post
 
Screenshot of the Washington Post story late Friday night, December 30, 2016:



This was the headline associated with that story:



In fact, the "Russian malware" was "off-the-shelf malware," widely and easily available, and was found on an isolated laptop "used" by a Vermont utility employee (without further attribution/explanation) and not connected to the grid.



By Saturday morning, December 31, 2016, less than 10 hours after original Washington Post story, the story was found to be "fake news." The Washington Post changed the headline once facts came to light. 

Why does this not surprise me.

Idle Meanderings -- December 30, 2016

Source: EIA.

Looking at the far right side of the graph, three lines, A, B, and C. Essentially those are the three possibilities for 2017:
A) price of oil creeps up, trending toward $75/bbl by the end of the year
B) price of oil remains at present level, $53 +/- $5 per bbl
C) price of oil trends down, toward $40 but not much lower
Likelihood, my opinion:
A) 20% chance
B) 75% likelihood
C) 5% chance
Implications:
A) if the price of oil trends toward but without going over $75: huge win for almost anyone involved in production of oil, including passive investors; consumers see more expensive gasoline but probably not enough to send economy into recession, but nonetheless, painful
B) win-win for everyone, US producers and global consumers; at $50 - $55 barely adequate for Russia, Saudi Arabia, but better than C)
C) not good for anyone, except consumers, but particularly ominous for Saudi Arabia, Russia
Saudi Arabia and Russia would almost be forced to do "anything" to prevent C). Because oil at less than $40 becomes an existential issue for Saudi Arabia, my hunch is that Saudi Arabia would probably do almost anything to keep the price of oil from trending down again.

**************************************
Opportunity

The run-up in price the price of oil between 2007 and 2009 (just before the "crash") was critical for the Bakken to boom. Had this run-up not occurred, one can argue the Bakken boom would not have occurred; it most likely would have been significantly delay. 
The second opportunity came during the sustained increase in the price of oil after the "crash", from 2009 to 2014. Again, had this price increase not occurred, it's unlikely the Bakken boom would have been sustained.

If folks remember: it was incredibly expensive to explore, drill, frack, obtain leases, put in the roads, put in the pads, obtain the sand, etc., etc., in the early days of the boom. At $50-oil this boom could not have occurred. 

Now, in 2016, going into 2017:
  • upfront leases -- incredibly expensive -- are a thing of the past
  • oilfield services are so much less expensive
  • sand is easily obtained, and much less expensive
  • operators using more sand (cheap) and less ceramic (expensive)
  • roads, pads, pipelines, rail -- the infrastructure is all in place (yes, more will be added, but hardly "needed"; and whatever infrastructure is added/"needed" pales in comparison to the story in 2007
  • wells were much less productive in the early days
  • wells costs have come way, way down (less then half?) and production has increased immensely in the first 90 days, and the first full year
  • EURs have gone from 350,000 boe to 1.5 million boe
  • pad drilling, DUCs, permits-in-hand, walking rigs, more effective rigs, better completion techniques now in place
  • work force incredibly experienced; based on accuracy of drilling; speed of drilling
  • geologists understand the Bakken; just before the 2014 crash, the middle Bakken was pretty much all mapped out but the Three Forks first bench hardly explored (by comparison); second, third, and fourth benches hardly explored at all -- handful of deeper wells in the Bakken pool
$100-oil was needed to light the Bakken boom.

**************************
 
Later, thoughts about the slump in the price of oil in 2008 - 2009; and in 2014 - 2016.