Friday, November 13, 2015

Overwhelmed, Nothing About The Bakken; Skip This Post; Scroll Down; Simply For The Archives -- November 13, 2015; President Obama Reassures The French That ISIS Is Not Gaining Strength; Comments On "Clock-Boy"

For updates on the Bakken, skip this post, and scroll down to next post. 

Updates

November 18, 2015: Russian plane brought down by ISIS bomb on plane; seven coordinated simultaneous attacks in Paris with 129 killed; scores injured, and President Obama calls it a "set-back" and SecState Kerry says ISIS has a "rationale" for what they are doing.

The White House was on the defense Wednesday morning for statements made by President Obama -- who labeled Friday's Paris massacre that left 129 dead a "setback" -- and Secretary of State John Kerry's claim that the terrorists who in January attacked Charlie Hebdo had a "rationale."
White House spokesman says we are paying too much attention to officials' words.

November 17, 2015: I opined several years ago that there was a very good chance that President Obama would implode. His comments following the Paris attacks suggest that he is "losing it," much like President Nixon did several decades ago. Even his most ardent supporters seem to have had enough:
“I read the intelligence faithfully. ISIL is not contained, ISIL is expanding,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, on Monday, using an alternate acronym for the group.
I doubt President Obama has read any intel briefings on ISIS. He quit going to intel briefings years ago, taking written briefs instead. If he is attending intel briefings now, it is "for show."

November 16, 2015: ISIS threatens DC. Michelle is not concerned; she is never in town. 

November 15, 2015: five more potential ISIS tourists released from GITMO. I can't make this stuff up. 

November 15, 2015: President Obama's response to the Paris-ISIS attack:
"The killing of innocent people based on a twisted ideology is an attack not just on France, not just on Turkey, it is an attack on the civilized world," Obama said during a meeting. 
I didn't read the story, but again, it appears President Obama still can't bring himself to use the word "terrorist" or "terrorism." It's simply the killing of innocent people -- sort of like what we see in Baltimore every day. Nothing more, nothing less, apparently in the president's mind. What a great guy. But it is a fact that President Obama et al won't use the phrase "radical Islam."

November 15, 2015: rumor has it that Bill Maher will fly to Syria to personally congratulate ISIS on an incredible execution of terrorist planning, rivaling 9/11 for precision execution.

November 15, 2015: rumor has it that community organizers at University of Missouri and Yale University will fly to Paris to share stories of their own experiences of hatred in the US, and to see  how a $15 / hour minimum wage will work in the US. Some of the students at the University of Missouri say they have been called bad names, like "dummy" and "stupid." 

November 15, 2015: headlines over at Drudge Report -- remember, these are taken from all US media, including NY Times and LA Times:
  • Paris attack puts dagger through heart of liberal Europe
  • Police questioned, released suspect after attack
  • Anti-Islam protest break out across France
  • Goodwin (NY Post): time for Obama to make a choice, lead or resign
  • Hollande wants 3-month state of emergency
  • Flashback: ISI claims thousands of jihadis smuggles in as refugees
  • resettlement resistance in USA
  • Michigan govern suspends efforts to accept refugees
  • manhunt for 8th Paris suspect
  •  "attacker was woman"
November 15, 2015: will President Obama continue to push his agenda to close GITMO in light of the Paris attacks? Remember, the House and the Senate overwhelmingly have said "no" to closing GITMO. White House spokesman says closing GITMO by executive order is still "on the table." 

November 14, 2015:
The terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday the thirteenth raise a number of questions or observations.
Supposedly seven sites were hit simultaneously.
The first question: were there more sites targeted or were the terrorists 100% successful in hitting all sites. If they were 100% successful it speaks volumes. It tells me that no one in Paris is paying attention. And of the many cities on the continent, Paris was probably the most likely to get hit like this based on demographics.
The second observation brings us closer to home. It puts “Clock-Boy” into perspective.
Does it bother anyone in the mainstream media — or have they even connected the dots — that we have a very naive president who blew off “Clock-Boy” as some kind of racial incident, when in fact the community was doing exactly what New Yorkers have been taught to do: see something, say something?
Somehow I can’t get too excited about “Clock-Boy” being taken downtown by law enforcement personnel. That’s a whole lot better than picking up body parts of 100 elementary kids blown up by a home-grown American terrorist.
What we have now is the opportunity for “Clock-Boy-II” to walk into any school in the nation and let him set the timer because no one wants to be accused of being racist. I can’t wait to see the rest of the questions and observations that come out of this.
By the way, as of Saturday, the day after the blasts, The Los Angeles Times has hardly covered the story. In The New York Times it’s in a sidebar at the left. Everywhere else it’s the entire front page. This is a big story. It again speaks volumes that the Los Angeles Times hardly covers the story. Maybe if we ignore it, it won’t happen here.

Original Post

There is way too much happening right now to keep up with everything. In the old days, I tried to keep going but found it too exhausting. So, for now, a DVD movie (some classic), some book reading, some dinner, and we'll see what happens next. Meanwhile, for the Parisians, Algore and company will tell them their greatest "risk" is melting Arctic ice sheets. And that's the way it is on Friday night, Friday the thirteenth.

Earlier today, President Obama stated categorically ISIS is not gaining strength:

ISIS is not gaining strength -- President Obama -- hours before major simultaneous terrorist hits in Paris

Two words: fathomless ignorance.

By the numbers, in Paris:
  • atmospheric CO2: slightly less than 400 ppm
  • Muslims: slightly more than 150,000 ppm
These are the headlines over at Drudge:
  • Muslim outrage: 150+ dead
  • Apocalyptic scene
  • Military deployed (I honestly did now the French still had a "military")
  • First curfew since 1944
  • French president closes borders
  • Gunmen shout "Allah Akbar" 
  • It's For Syria
  • ISIS celebrates: Paris in flames
  • Algore hosting 24-hour live climate webcast from Eiffel Tower
  • Attacks in at least seven different locations (mainstream media asks whether attacks might be linked)
  • Witness relates bloodbath at packed concert venue
  • Earlier today: President Obama declares ISIS contained
  • FBI: 1,000 active ISIS probes inside USA
  • Muslims on track to exceed Jewish population in USA
  • Obama moves to increase and accelerate admission of Syrian refugees
Meanwhile US college students demanding tuition-free education; school loans "forgiven"; and, $15/hour minimum wage -- I'm glad they're paying attention.

Later, November 14, 2015, 9:30 p.m.: just after the Paris bombings, I wrote Don to tell him that Trump surged by 20 points in the polls. I wasn't too far off; poll numbers that came out after my note shows Trump's lead surged to 42% -- a Drudge Report headline. 

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Algore Kerry: Global Warming Is Parisians' Greatest Threat

Weekend weather: 22′ Waves, 50mph Winds, & Up To 110″ of Snow Forecast for Washington Next 2 Days

I can't make this stuff up. Algore at the Eiffel Tower

Two words: fathomless ignorance.

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T********

Tweeting now: even if the White House is, the French are not afraid to use the word "terrorists" or "terrorism" --
Photo: French President Fran├žois Hollande, after visiting wounded victims of the Paris attacks, says France will be 'ruthless' with terrorists
It will be interesting to see if the White House spokesman on the Sunday television morning talks shows call this an act of terrorism. For some, maybe it's just a crime. 

Five (5) More Permits -- November 13, 2015

Active rigs:


11/13/201511/13/201411/13/201311/13/201211/13/2011
Active Rigs64188182190201

Five (5) new permits --
  • Operators: CLR (2), SM Energy (2), Statoil
  • Fields: Brooklyn (Williams), Colgan (Divide), Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: that Brooklyn field has been a huge surprise; some time ago I described the Brooklyn field as: a small, non-descript field NW of Williston; "owned" by CLR; excellent example of how an operator systematically drilled one entire field with one rig; holding the entire field by production within a year or so; has received the most comments of any field.

Director's Cut For September, 2015, Data Is Out -- November 13, 2015; The Red Queen Has Not Fallen Off The Treadmill

The Director's Cut is out, November 13, 2015, with September, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of September decreased by a little over 2%, a little over 25,000 bopd, compared to the previous month, August, 2015. The EIA estimated the entire US crude oil production would decrease by about 45,000 bopd in October, compared to September. [Be careful: the EIA estimate is for October crude oil production; the Director's Cut released today is September data.]

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Director's Cut
September, 2015, Data
September, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source


Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The September data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-11-13.pdf

Important data points:
  • Today, pricing: $31.25
  • Bakken price in October: $34.37
  • Fracklog: 1,019 (98 more than at end of August, previous reporting period)
  • Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
  • Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month) 
Delta, crude oil production
  • 1,162,253 - 1,187,631 = - 25,378
  • 25,378 / 1,187,631 = 2.14% decrease month-over-month
Oil:  
  • September, 2015:  1,162,253 (preliminary)
  • August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
  • July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
  • June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
  • May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
  • April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
  • March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
  • February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
  • January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
  • December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
Producing wells:
  • September, 2015: 13,025 (preliminary, all time high was August, 2015)
  • August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
  • December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
  • August, 2014: 11,565
Permitting
  • October, 2015: 152
  • September, 2015: 154
  • August, 2015: 153
  • July, 2015: 233
  • June, 2015: 192
  • May, 2015: 150
  • April, 2015: 168
  • March, 2015: 190
  • February, 2015: 197
  • January, 2015: 246
  • December, 2014: 251
  • November, 2014: 235
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
Pricing
  • Today, 2015: $31.25
  • October, 2015: $34.37
  • September, 2015: $31.17
  • August, 2015: $29.52
  • July, 2015: $39.41
  • June, 2015: 47.73
  • May, 2015: $44.70
  • April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
  • March, 2015: $31.47
  • February, 2015: $34.11
  • January, 2015: $31.41
  • December, 2014: $40.74
  • November, 2014: $60.61
  • October, 2014: $68.94
  • Sept, 2014: $74.85
  • August, 2014: $78.46
Rig count:
  • Today:  64 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
  • October 68
  • September: 71
  • August: 74
  • July: 73
  • June: 78
  • May: 83
  • April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
  • March: 108
  • February: 133
  • January: 160
  • December, 2014: 181
  • November, 2014: 188
  • October, 2014: 191
  • Sept, 2014: 193
  • August, 2014: 193
  • July, 2014:  192
Director's comments[see source]
The number of well completions rose slightly from 115 (final) in August to 123 (preliminary) in September.
Drilling rig count
  • rig count decreased 3 from August to September, decreased 3 from September to October, and dropped 4 more so far this month 
  • dropped 5 from June to July
  • dropped 5 from May to June
  • dropped 8 from April to May
  • dropped 17 from March to April 8
  • dropped 25 February to March
  • dropped 27 from January to February
  • dropped 7 from November to December
  • dropped 21 from December to January
  • dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut
Well completions
  • September 123 (preliminary)
  • August: 115 (final)
  • July: 119 (final)
  • June: 149 (final)
  • May: 116 (final)
  • April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
  • March: an astounding 194 (final)
  • February: 42
  • January: 63
  • December: 173 (preliminary)
  • November: 48
Weather
  • one significant precipitation event in the Williston area and one in the Minot area
  • 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
  • no days with temperatures below -10F
Wells waiting to be completed:  
  • At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August
  • At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
  • At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
  • At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
  • At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
  • At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
  • At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
  • At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
  • March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
  • Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
  • Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd
Flaring
  • capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
  • capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
  • capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
  • capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
  • capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
  • flaring today: 19%, down from 20% the previous month
  • finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 90% capacity (down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
  • the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.
Gas capture statistics:  
  • statewide: 81% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
  • FBIR Bakken: 83% (was 77% last month)
Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)

GDPNow -- Latest Forecast -- November 13, 2015

GDPNow (dynamic link)
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 13, unchanged from November 4. The forecast of real growth increased to 2.9 percent last Friday after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It has since retreated to 2.3 percent as the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter GDP growth fell from -0.3 to -0.8 percent after Tuesday's wholesale inventories release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's retail inventories release (also from the Census).
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JV Or Not JV

Updates

June 30, 2016: after the ISIS attack on the Istanbul airport, this comment:
Bob Baer, a former CIA intelligence officer who specializes in Middle East security issues, said there is no foolproof way to preventing a similar airport attack. 
"You cannot protect these airports 100% ... especially in a place like Turkey, where ISIS has cells everywhere," he said.
And this is the organization that Obama called the "JV." Fathomless ignorance."

Original Post
 
I hope these two links are never broken: fathomless ignorance --
That JV team in the Mideast? ISIS? ISIL? It looks like they were misunderestimated.
The President says a minimum of three years and a gazillion dollars and another war will be needed to (maybe) defeat the JV team, despite A-team from Jordan finally joining the fight.
Are any links needed? We'll see. This one will do. The only phrase Chuck Todd did not use in that interview: "fathomless ignorance."
And then today, read the first paragraph below which was the second to last paragraph at this link:
Asked about Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson’s suggestion that eliminating ISIS would be easy, the president said Carson “doesn’t know much about it.”
“Over the last several years I've had access to all the best military minds in the country and all the best foreign policy minds in the country, and I'm not running for office. And so my only interest is in success,” the president said.
Fathomless ignorance. I wish I had thought of that one. 

Friday, November 13, 2015

Active rigs:


11/13/201511/13/201411/13/201311/13/201211/13/2011
Active Rigs64188182190201

RBN Energy: Boosting the Power Burn Within or Near the Marcellus and Utica Plays.
Within and near the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, power plant developers are building more than a dozen new natural gas-fired generating units, mostly combined-cycle plants that can operate essentially around-the-clock. This construction boom, spurred by a combination of abundant, low-cost gas and the regulation-driven retirement of scores of older coal plants, is boosting gas consumption close to gas production areas and reducing—at least a bit—the surplus gas volumes that Marcellus and Utica producers and marketers need to move to markets outside the region. Today, we examine the race to build new power plants near production areas in the Northeast, and consider what the resulting local gas consumption might mean for the region’s gas prices and pipeline needs.
Midstream companies the past few years have been scrambling to add gas takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, where gas production levels—now averaging about 20 Bcf/d--have been overwhelming the existing pipeline infrastructure and depressing Northeast gas prices. We’ve tracked this pipeline build-out in several blogs, including our 50 Ways To Leave The Marcellus series (also the subject of an RBN Drill Down report); we’ve also considered the effects of the Northeast’s still-constrained pipeline network in our recent Living In Forward Curves series.
Major oil companies have one-half trillion dollars to fund takeovers -- Bloomberg/Rigzone:
The world’s six largest publicly traded oil producers have more than a half-trillion dollars in stock and cash to snap up rival explorers. Exxon Mobil Corp. tops the list with a total of $320 billion for potential acquisitions. Chevron is next with $65 billion in cash and its own shares tucked away, followed by BP Plc with $53 billion, according to data from corporate filings compiled by Bloomberg.

Merger speculation was running high after Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said Wednesday it withdrew an offer to buy Apache Corp. for an undisclosed amount. Apache rebuffed the unsolicited offer and wouldn’t provide access to internal financial data, Anadarko said.
Both companies are now takeover targets, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund. Royal Dutch Shell Plc has $32.4 billion available, almost all of it in cash. That said, The Hague-based company is unlikely to go hunting for large prey given plans announced in April to take over BG Group Plc for $69 billion in cash and stock. At the bottom of the pack are ConocoPhillips with $31.5 billion and Total SA with $30.5 billion. More than 90 percent of ConocoPhillips’ stockpile is in the form of shares held in its treasury. Total’s arsenal is 85 percent cash.
Jack Kemp: US shale oil output will be less resilient than natural gas at Reuters/Rigzone.
U.S. natural gas production hit a new record in August, despite the deepening slump in gas prices and a fall in the number of rigs targeting gas formations. The failure of gas production to respond to lower prices and a falling rig count has left many analysts wondering if it heralds the same problem in the oil market - worsening oversupply.

The number of rigs drilling for oil has plunged almost two-thirds over the last 12 months, but crude production is unchanged since October 2014 and down by less than 5 percent compared with its peak in April.
Like shale gas producers, shale oil drillers have managed to raise output while cutting costs by concentrating on the best-known and most productive formations and areas. They have also standardised and accelerated the drilling process, drilled longer horizontal wells with more fracking stages, and employed more horsepower to fracture larger areas underground from the same hole.
But closer examination reveals important differences between the two markets that suggest oil output will be less resilient than gas to lower prices.
But the Marcellus/Utica play is exceptional and it is not obvious that there are any similar oil-rich shales which could keep oil production growing despite the sharp drop in prices.
Possible shale oil candidates would be the Bakken play in North Dakota, the Permian and Eagle Ford plays in Texas, and the Niobrara in Colorado and Wyoming. Producers in all four regions have cut drilling and completion costs, increased efficiency, and boosted output per well since the middle of 2014.
Even so, production has been slowly dropping in Eagle Ford since March, Niobrara since April and Bakken since May, according to the EIA. The only region to defy the slump in prices has been the Permian Basin, where output has continued to rise and is forecast to hit 2 million barrels per day this month. Permian production has grown by 250,000 barrels per day, more than 15 percent, over the last 12 months, according to estimates contained in the latest edition of the EIA's "Drilling Productivity Report".
Pioneer Resources, one of the most aggressive shale drillers during the slump, has called the Permian "the only place to grow oil long-term" and said it might quit Eagle Ford within the next five years to concentrate on Permian wells.
Much more at the link.