Monday, February 16, 2015

The Permian Keeps On Giving; Price Rally Seen As Hopeful; Kuwait Hopeful -- February 16, 2015

Rigzone is reporting:
Over the past few years, two of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are Midland and Odessa, a pair of communities separated by a mere 20 miles of interstate roadway deep in the heart of Texas.
These metropolises have not only seen their populations swell to previously unforeseen numbers, but Midland and Odessa also rank first and second, respectively, in terms of economic growth nationwide. The fact that these two areas have seen this type of expansion is no accident. Growing a city is like growing a business, and growing a business is all about location, location, location. Midland and Odessa have this advantage, as both sit atop the Permian Basin, one of the largest oil reserves in the world.
“The Permian Basin is arguably one of the most, if not the most, important regions when it comes to energy production,” says Bradley T. Ewing, a Rawls Professor of Energy Economics at Texas Tech University. “It has the greatest rig count of any basin or region in the world.” 
The activity that both areas have seen in energy production – and the subsequent population boom each city has undergone as result – is proof that safe and responsible oil and gas production not only lowers energy and fuel costs for consumers, but that it also harvests economic stability, strengthens national security, increases median household incomes, and improves American competitiveness worldwide.
According to a report published by Texas Tech University, the total cumulative production for just the Texas portion of the Permian Basin exceeds 29 billion barrels of oil and approximately 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Much of this production comes courtesy of enormous improvements in technology such as fracturing and horizontal drilling. 
More at the link.

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Price Rally Provides Some Relief -- Kemp

At Reuters:
U.S. shale producers have responded even more quickly to lower oil prices than analysts expected, which should ensure shale production hits a plateau by May or June and is sustained rather than falling in the second half of the year.
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States declined by another 84 last week, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes. The oil-directed rig count has now fallen by a total of 553, or 34 percent, since early October, the fastest decline since 1986.
Some analysts have questioned whether the decline in rig counts will really result in a slowdown in oil output. The most basic lower rigs, those with the lowest horsepower and depth ratings, capable only of drilling vertically, are likely to be idled first, leaving more powerful units with horizontal capability still working.
And drilling will pull back from speculative frontier areas to concentrate on the most productive parts of well-established plays to maximise new output per well drilled. But however the data is analysed a broad-based slowdown in drilling is now occurring across the entire U.S. shale sector. 
Much, much more at the link. 

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Kuwait Hopeful
Also at Rigzone:
Kuwait's oil minister said on Monday he expected the current oil price rally to continue into the second half of 2015 as the global supply surplus shrinks.
"I think it will last," Ali al-Omair said of the recent rise in oil prices, speaking on the sidelines of an energy event.
"It will start holding gains now and hopefully in the second half of 2015 we will see better prices," he told reporters. Omair also said the current oil surplus was "definitely lower" than 1.8 million barrels per day.
"The surplus is now reducing and some of the production is getting out of the market," he said without elaborating. Oil prices steadied on Monday with benchmark Brent trading up 3 cents to $61.55 per barrel by 0620 GMT. 
More at the link.

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As Predicted

As I predicted right here on this blog a couple of days ago, the opportunity to enroll in ObamaCare has been extended by one week. The extension was due to "technical issues" with the federal website.

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Undefeated Champions

Photo of this year's indoor soccer championship team -- for their age group. Undefeated. 

Olivia, back row, standing, middle player.

Denbury Cancels Four (4) Red Rivers B Permits; Halcon With a Huge Well

Active rigs:


2/16/201502/16/201402/16/201302/16/201202/16/2011
Active Rigs136185181200169


Four (4) new permits --
  • Operators: Slawson (4)
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
  • 26704, 1,317, QEP, MHA 7-27-34H-148-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 27159, 715, EOG, Parshall 49-2226H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 99K 12/14;
  • 27516, drl, XTO, Guy Federal  24X-35F, Grinnell, no production data,
  • 27563, IA, CLR, Holstein Federal 1-25H, Elm Tree, no production data,
  • 28336, 2,565, BR, Siverston Rush 1-7-8MBH ULW, 4 sections, Elidah, t12/14; cum 14K 12/14;
  • 28723, 393, Hess, TI-Arlene-Stone-157-95-2419H-2, Tioga, t12/14; cum 3K 12/14;
Wells coming off the confidential list this long weekend:
Saturday, February 14, 205 -- Monday, February 16, 2015
  • 21539, drl, Enerplus, Arikara 150-94-32D-29H TF, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 24150, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-27C-22-3H, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
  • 26306, 291, Mountain Divide, BJNJ 30-31-1H, Big Dipper, t10/14 cum 32K 12/14;
  • 26595, drl, QEP, Fed 3-34-35H-152-92, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 26596, drl, QEP, Fed 7-34-35H-152-92, Van Hook, no production data,
  • 26705, 1,777, QEP, MHA 5-27-34H-148-92, Heart Butte, t1/15; cum --
  • 27160, 1,299, EOG, Parshall 48-2226H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 100K 12/14;
  • 27278, 3,715, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-30B-31-4H, Eagle Nest, t8/14 cum 158K 12/14;
  • 27393, 339, Fidelity, Barnhart2 20-17H, Heart River, t9/14; cum 26K 12/14;
  • 27517, drl, XTO, Guy Federal 24X-35B, Grinnell, no production data,
  • 27655, 1,644, Petro-Hunt Jonsrud 152-96-34C-27-2HS, 4 sections, Clear Creek, t12/14; cum 8K 12/14;
  • 28003, drl, Slawson, Cruiser 4-16-9TFH, Big Bend, producing,
  • 28165, 1,444, QEP, State 1-16-21BH, Grail, t10/14; cum 34K 12/14;
  • 28166, 2,204, QEP, State 2-16-21BH, Grail, t10/14; cum 79K 12/14;
  • 28167, 2,761, QEP, State 2-16-21TH, Grail, t10/14; cum 108K 12/14;
  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail, t12/14; cum 5K 12/14;
  • 28347, drl, BR, Lillibridge 41-27MBH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
  • 28370, drl, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-5, Antelope, a Sanish well, no production data,
  • 28448, 55, Corinthian, Corinthian Lochner 8-4 2-H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t10/14; cum 10K 12/14;
  • 28476, 1,620, Newfield, Rolfsrud State 152-96-29-32-3HX, Westberg, t11/14; cum 30K 12/14;
  • 28477, 823, Newfield, Rolfsrud State 152-96-29-32-12H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 25K 12/14;
  • 28613, drl, CLR, Debrecen 3-3H1, Bell, no production data,
  • 28835, drl, SM Energy, Waters 3-28HN, Ambrose, no production data,
  • 28836, drl, SM Energy, Waters 3-28HS, Ambrose, no production data,
  • 28872, drl, Hess, GN-Halseth-158-97-3130H-1, New Home, no production data,
  • 28938, 871, CLR, Bud 2-30H, Crazy Man Creek, t1/15; cum 4K 12/14;
  • 29010, drl, XTO, Nelson 24X-11F, Garden, no production data,
  • 30073, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 31-36SH 15, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well,
  • 30123, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 41-36NH15, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well,
  • 30124, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 41-26SH 15, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well,
  • 30473, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 31-36NH 15, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well,

Doesn't Want Explosive Derailments "On Her Head" -- North Dakota State Senator Connie Triplett

Update

Later, 8:51 p.m. CT: 100% of the readers who weighed in on this subject said I was completely wrong on suggesting "promoting the oil industry" should come under the purview of the Commerce Department of North Dakota. Apparently the Commerce Department is no friend of the oil and gas industry in North Dakota -- it explains why not one Democrat supported Senator Triplett's bill to move "crude oil promotion" to the commerce department.

It appears I have never been so wrong in any post on this blog. LOL. It turns out that EagleFordTexas is also wrong, thinking Dems wanted to keep this a "talking point." In fact, even the Dems knew how crazy this idea was from the very beginning. They did not want this "on their heads" either.

 
Original Note

Saying she doesn't want any more explosive derailments "on her head" suggests ....  well, I'm not sure what it suggests....

... whatever ...

Not one Democrat in the North Dakota legislature supported Ms Triplett's attempt to separate "promotion" from "regulation" of the North Dakota oil industry. EagleFordTexas is suggesting that the Dems in North Dakota would rather keep this a talking point than doing anything about it.

All her bill would have done was move "promotion of North Dakota oil industry" to the Commerce Department in North Dakota (where I have to agree -- makes sense) and out of the hands of the NDIC.

Whatever.

Tobacco Garden

Updates
 

Permits

2015
30723, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32B, no production data,
30722, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32F, no production data,
30721, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32AXB, no production data,
30720, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32E, no production data,

2014 (list is complete)
30257, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 11X-17B, no production data,
30256, conf, XTO, Tobacco Garden 11X-17E, no production data,
30255, conf, XTO, Rita 11X-17A, no production data,
29494, conf, XTO, Rita 44X-34H, no production data,
29493, conf, XTO, Rita 44X-34XC, no production data,
29492, conf, XTO, Rita 44X-34G, no production data,
29491, conf, XTO, Rita 44X-34C, no production data,
28776, drl, XTO, Ranger 21X-18G, no production data,
28775, drl, XTO, Ranger 21X-18C, no production data,
28774, conf, XTO, Ranger 21X-18F, no production data,
28773, conf, XTO, Ranger 21X-18B, no production data,
28772, conf, XTO, Ranger 21X-18A, no production data,
28771, conf, XTO, Ranger 21X-18E, no production data,
28378, 1,011, Newfield, Loomer 150-99-2-11-4H, t8/14; cum 59K 12/14;
28377, 1,154, Newfield, Loomer 150-99-2-11-5H, t8/14; cum 66K 12/14;
27845, 1,111, Newfield, Blue Angel 150-99-5-8-5HLW, 4 sections, t7/14; cum 73K 12/14;
27844, 1,284, Newfield, Blue Angel 150-99-5-8-4H, t7/14; cum 69K 12/14;

2013
27008, PNC, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H, PNC in 1/15;
27007, PNC, Newfield, Eide 150-99-7-6-2H, PNC in 2/15;
26252, 734, Newfield, Eide 150-99-7-6-2H, t1/14; cum 89K 12/14;
26251, 1,167, Newfield, Eide 150-99-7-6-3H, t1/14; cum 94K 12/14;
26248, 986, Newfield, Eide 150-99-7-6-4h, t1/14; cum 92K 12/14;
26127, 1,809, XTO, rita 24X-34A, 30 stages; 3.7 million lbs, t7/14; cum 75K 12/14;
26126, 1,590, XTO, Rita 24X-34E, t7/14; cum 57K 12/14;
26125, 822, XTO, Loomer 24X-34E, t8/14; cum 34K 12/14;
26093, 2,170, XTO, Loomer 24X-34A, t7/14; cum 72K 12/14;
25595, 1,967, XTO, Loomer 41X-4G, t414; cum 59K 12/14;
25594, 2,285, XTO, Loomer 41x-4C, t3/14; cum 86K 12/14;
25593, 1,342, XTO, Loomer 41X-4H, t3/14; cum 47K 12/14;
25592, 2,348, XTO, Loomer 41X-4D, t3/12; cum 108K 12/14;
25381, 1,872, XTO, Loomer 41X-3D, t7/14; cum 91K 12/14;
25380, 973, XTO, Loomer 41X-3G, t6/14; cum 45K 12/14;
25379, 1,471, XTO, Loomer 41X-3C, t7/14; cum 94K 12/14;
25378, 380, XTO, Loomer 41X-3F, t7/14; cum 48K 12/14;
25067, PNC, XTO, Loomer 21X-4F, PNC in 5/13;
25066, 2,356, XTO, Loomer 21X-4E, t10/13; cum 53K 12/14;
25065, 1,515, XTO, Loomer 21X-4A, t10/13; cum 140K 12/14;

2012
24528, 1,558, Newfield, Loomer State 150-99-5-8-3H, t6/13; cum 153K 12/14;
24527, PNC, Newfield, Loomer State 150-99-5-8-10H, PNC in 4/13;
24526, 1,729, Newfield, Loomer State 150-99-5-8-2H, t6/13; cum 160K 12/14;

2011
22151, 1,538, XTO, Tobacco Garden 41-18Sh, t6/12; cum 158K 12/14;
21943, 1,654, Newfield, Inga 150-99-11-2-3H, t6/12; cum 205K 12/14;
21942, 1,023, Newfield, Inga 150-99-11-2-10H, t6/12; cum 82K 12/14;
21941, 1,876, Newfield, Inga 150-99-11-2-2H, t6/12; cum 127K 12/14;
21909, 869, Slawson, Thor 1-31-30H, t2/12; cum 155K 12/14;
21648, 1,535, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31-29NEY, t8/12; cum 134K 12/14;
21647, 654, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31-29SEH, t8/12; cum 76K 12/14;
21394, 2,065, Newfield, Wehrung 150-99-11-2-1H, t2/12 cum 143K 12/14;
20936, 1,481, XTO, Loomer 24-34SEH, t10/11; cum 164K 12/14;
20935, 165, XTO, Loomer 24-34NEH, t10/11; cum 132K 12/14;
20903, 1,294, XTO, Loomer 21-4SWH, t11/11; cum 200K 12/14;
20719, 890, XTO, Bergem 44-28NWH, t11/11; cum 83K 12/14;

***********************************
Tobacco Garden

Tobacco Garden is a relatively small field near the sweet spots in the Bakken, located just a few miles to the northwest of Watford City. It appears XTO "owns" the field, although Newfield does have some operated wells in field. At the time of the original post, it is the ten sections in the south part of hte field that are incredibly active; the rest of the field is pretty quiet except for a little area in the far northwest area of the field. With the slump in oil prices in late 2014 / early 2015, it was of note that XTO was interested in new permits in Tobacco Garden.

Unit Train Carrying North Dakota Oil -- Derailment In West Virginia: Crude Oil Said To Be Leaking Into River; Fiery Explosions -- February 16, 2015; Leslie Gore Dead At 68

Active rigs:


2/16/201502/16/201402/16/201302/16/201202/16/2011
Active Rigs136185181200169

*************************************
Fiery Explosions
Update: the train was carrying oil from North Dakota. WSAZ is reporting:
The train consisted of two locomotives and 109 rail cars and was traveling from North Dakota to Yorktown, Va. One person was being treated for potential inhalation, but no other injuries were reported.
CBS Local is reporting:
Some West Virginia residents are being evacuated after train carrying oil derailed.
Photos show a fiery explosion where the train went off the tracks in Fayette County, WV.
Reportedly, some residents are being evacuated and oil is said to be leaking into the river. 
I assume CBR due to lack of pipelines which activists do not want.

********************************
Googling The West Virginia Derailment


***********************************
Leslie Gore Dead At 68

You Don't Own Me, Leslie Gore

Mt Kennedy: Highest Mountain In Boston (Seasonally Adjusted) -- February 16, 2015

Highest mountain in the world: Mt Everest
Highest mountain in US: Mt McKinley
Highest mountain in the contiguous US: Mt Whitney
Highest "natural point" in North Dakota: White Butte (3,506 feet)
Highest mountain in Boston (seasonally adjusted): Mt Kennedy:


Disclaimer: I am not a geographer. I have no formal training or education in geography (except for that received from Ms ----- in fifth grade, Wilkinson elementary school, Williston, North Dakota). The definition of "highest" mountain is somewhat contentious (based on how one measures "highest"). If this information is important to you, a) visit Boston (before spring); and, b) visit Wikipedia. 

By the way, if you look closely you can see the snow-covered St Bernard (the dog, not the saint) in the lower left hand corner of the photograph above -- the St Bernard is highlighted in twenty shades of grey. Also, if you look closely you can see Brian Williams on top of Mt Kennedy above -- he is second from the left, the only one with his hands on his hips. Considering that the others have their hands raised in a celebratory manner, it is possible Brian was photoshopped into the photograph.

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The Silence Is Deafening

ISIS beheads 21 Christians over the weekend. Every important western national leader condemned the beheadings. Of note: President Obama said NOT ONE THING.

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Global Warming

Tweeting right now:
  • Kentucky legislature cancels Tuesday session due to snow - @AP.
  • Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe asks everyone to stay off roads after 3 pm ET today when state of emergency begins - @NBC12.
  • Reports of freezing rain around Chattanooga, Tenn. - @StormTrack9Dave.
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West Coast Dockworkers Strike

[Update:  A huge "thank you" to a reader who explained why the US Secretary goes to San Francisco, not Los Angeles with regard to the dockworker job action (euphemism for "slowdown").  I thought it was due to Pelosi and Feinstein both being from San Francisco, but it turns out the Pacific Maritime Association and the ILWU are both headquartered in the city. Interesting.]

I've kind of lost the bubble on this but there's either a slowdown or a strike affecting, apparently, all of the ports on the US west coast. Of the ports, the Los Angeles Port and the Long Beach Port, collocated in the San Pedro Harbor south of Los Angeles, would be the most important.

Yesterday a reader noted that the White House was going to get involved. I replied in an e-mail that I truly doubt that President Obama was concerned about the US economy or the California economy vis-a-vis the west coast ports. My hunch is that senior state politicians are feeling the heat from their constituents (and possibly even from their millionaire/billionaire spouses whose companies are being threatened b the slowdown/strike) and for that reason have asked the White House to get involved.

With that in mind, I was intrigued by this tweet trending now:
Labor Secretary Tom Perez will meet with ship owners, longshoremen in San Francisco Tuesday to help resolve port dispute - @nbcbayarea.
Of course the San Francisco port is important but in the big scheme of things it is the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports that are important. But yet the White House sends the Labor Secretary to San Francisco.

Why?

From wiki:  A member of the Democratic Party, Pelosi represents California's 12th congressional district, which consists of four-fifths of the city and county of San Francisco.

In 2007, Nancy Pelosi was the ninth-richest person in the 435-member House. In 2001, it appears she moved up to #5.

Senator Diane Feinstein is even richer, sixth richest senator in the US Senate. Feinstein has deep ties to San Francisco, born ther, and a former mayor of the city.  

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Must Be A Lot Of Unused Flu Vaccine Going To Waste

Last night, Sunday, February 15, 2015, there was an item on late night news following the 40th Anniversary, Saturday Night Live suggesting this year's flu season was particularly worrisome -- that it was critical folks pay attention to advice regarding the flu and to get one's flu "shot." I was curious; last time I looked, the flu season was coming to an end; the numbers were waning.

I was correct, Google flu trends, US:


It appears the flu season is ending. The news story last night was most likely a "press release" from the flu vaccine manufacturers picked up by the local network and used as "cheap filler."

Tesoro Raises Quarterly Dividend 40% -- February 16, 2015

Tesoro Corp approves an increase in the regular quarterly dividend by 40 pct to $0.425 per share, payable on March 13 to all holders of record as of Feb. 27.

 See disclaimer.