Sunday, January 11, 2015

Random Update Of Honor, Grace, Courage, And Pride (Enerplus) In Spotted Horn -- January 11, 2015

Original Post: Honor, Grace, Courage, and Pride
  • 23541, 1,545, Enerplus, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, Three Forks, 59 stages; 14 million lbs sand, 1280 acres, t6/14; cum 591K 10/18;
NDIC File No: 23541    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/7/2014     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT3 6-150-94     Latitude: 47.846805     Longitude: -102.760842
Current Operator: ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATION
Current Well Name: HONOR 150-94-06B-18H TF
Total Depth: 25465     Field: SPOTTED HORN
Spud Date(s):  10/8/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 113650-25465     Comp: 6/7/2014     Status: AL     Date: 6/15/2015    Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 165,895     Cum MCF Gas: 197341     Cum Water: 93937
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/20/2014     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1,545     IP MCF: 2268     IP Water: 1130
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20143029043288111085233034263776656
BAKKEN10-20143130846313761255836357363570
BAKKEN9-20149888283803450888788870
BAKKEN8-20142727549281751239529831298310
BAKKEN7-20143138361378911853742065420650
BAKKEN6-20142431214306493614547167471670

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23542, 1,007, Enerplus, Grace 150-94-06B-07H, Spotted Horn, t2/13; cum 327K 10/18;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201430733670702347355416551899
BAKKEN10-201431841983843025439943990
BAKKEN9-201492750294099872720
BAKKEN8-201427729171163782225722570
BAKKEN7-201426474145014286241324130
BAKKEN6-2014242675288890884294290
BAKKEN5-201453534738512892890
BAKKEN4-2014312291197187237230
BAKKEN3-201425761176492023673967390
BAKKEN2-2014311659272566056050
BAKKEN1-2014828013066668201120110
BAKKEN12-201323606259541791829282920
BAKKEN11-20132986278456301117795177950
BAKKEN10-2013251072810738388516559165590
BAKKEN9-201318462249121610630963090
BAKKEN8-20131996799414368612893128930
BAKKEN7-2013241081610866290915783157830
BAKKEN6-2013301094911023283113164131640
BAKKEN5-2013311294412875347815585155850
BAKKEN4-2013301333513486475117897178970
BAKKEN3-2013312240522494861313443013443
BAKKEN2-201317133081267413324798507985

*******************************************

26608, 1,601, Enerplus, Courage 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 554K 10/18;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2014302438524202813527254228924362
BAKKEN10-20143130672307341212536316363160
BAKKEN9-20149677364936301690469040
BAKKEN8-20142728626288671004631727317270
BAKKEN7-20143138494384311662842388423880
BAKKEN6-20142341464409203477335671356710

 **********************************

26609, 1,703, Enerplus Resources, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, t10/14; cum 480K 10/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20142927827725
10-20144457553816
9-201479738893

MIA -- January 11, 2015

The Daily Mail

This is the list of 50 people who thought it important enough to attend.

In case the link breaks at a future date:

Here is a list of the world leaders participating at the Paris rally:

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker
European Parliament president Martin Schulz
European Union president Donald Tusk
Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg
Polish Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz
Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt
Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny
Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho
Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico
Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma
Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borissov
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic
Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel
Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat
Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven
Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga
Kosovo President Atifete Jahjaga
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibachvili
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Austrian foreign minister Sebastian Kurz
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
King Abdallah of Jordan
Queen Rania of Jordan
German chancellor Angela Merkel
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman
Israeli Economy Minister Naftali Bennett
MK Eli Yishai from Israeli Knesset
Abu Mazen of Palestinian Fatah party
US Attorney General Eric Holder (Not seen at march/rally)* - in Paris, but did not attend rally
Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita
Gabonese President Ali Bongo
Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou
Benin President Thomas Boni Yayi
Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa
Algerian foreign minister Ramtane Lamamra


*The linked source put this name in bold. In fact, Eric Holder was in Paris at the time, but did not attend the rally; he was being interviewed on an American Sunday morning talk show.

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President Obama was not the only one MIA: I haven't heard a peep / read a tweet from Neil deGrasse Tyson who tweeted earlier this year:
"Some claim the USA is a Christian nation, compelling me to wonder which assault rifle Jesus would choose: the AR-15 or AK-47."
As I said then: Jesus would choose neither.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday -- Janaury 11, 2015

On January 8, 2015, just a few days ago, I had a long note on Barnes and Noble. It turns out I had a similar note on Barnes and Noble almost exactly one year ago; I had forgotten about that one. I suggested that for Barnes and Noble to "survive," it needed to look at the Costco model. It was then quite surprising to see the cover story on this week's issue of BloombergBusinessweek features a new start-up that will do just that -- use the Costco model for it's on-line retail store. Very interesting.

******************************

Oil continues to fall. Bloomberg is reporting:
The oil industry was listening as OPEC talked down crude prices to a more than five-year low.
Drillers, refiners and other merchants increased bets on lower prices to the most in three years in the week ended January 6, 2015, government data show. Producers idled the most rigs since 1991, with some paying to break leases on drilling equipment.
Producers are hedging more and drilling less on concern that the biggest plunge in prices since 2008 will continue. Oil fell for a seventh week after officials from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait reiterated they won’t curb output to halt the decline.
“Producers are desperately hedging their production in a drastically falling market,” Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by phone Jan. 9. “They are trying to lock in prices because they are convinced that the market will stay down for a while.”
WTI fell $6.19, or 11 percent, to $47.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Jan. 6, settling below $50 for the first time since April 2009. Prices ended at $48.36 Jan. 9.
********************************
Tomorrow

Oh, well, time to look at the wells coming off the confidential list tomorrow and the weekend:

Monday, January 12, 2015
  • 26413, 669, Whiting, Kubas 44-7PH, North Creek, t7/14; cum 21K 11/14;
  • 28021, conf, QEP, Moberg 3-20-21BH, Grail, producing,
  • 28043, dry, BR, Bullrush 21-10PH, Elidah, a Birdbear well,
Sunday, January 11, 2015 
  • 27068, 502, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HD, Spotted Horn, t11/14; cum 8K 11/14;
  • 27657, drl, QEP, Johnson 3-9-4BH, Grail, no production data,
  • 27828, conf, CLR, Jersey 25-6H, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, s7/14; no production data,
  • 27978, 637, Emerald, Billy Ray Vlentine 2-8-5H, Boxcar Butte, t7/14; cum 21K 11/14;
  • 28349, 75, Enduro, MMU 31-31-H1, Mohall, a Madison well, t9/14; cum 6K 11/14;
  • 28626, drl, CLR, Rennerfeldt 4-30H, Brooklyn, no production data,
Saturday, January 10, 2015
  • 23697, 211, Petro-Hunt, Maruskie 159-94-3B-10-1H, North Tioga, t11/14; cum 6K 11/14;
  • 27441, 446, EOG, Parshall 65-14H, Parshall, short lateral, gas up to 3,000 units, 25 stages; 7.6 million lbs; t7/14; cum 64K 11/14;
  • 27482, 735, Newfield, Gariety 150-99-36-25-4H,  Siverston, t10/14; cum 28K 11/14;
  • 28020, 2,325, QEP, Moberg 3-20-21TH, Grail, t11/14; cum 21K 11/14;
  • 28151, 642, Hess, BW-Sorenson-149-99-1324H-5, Cherry Creek, t12/14; cum --
  • 28322, drl, Abraxas, Stenehjem 27-34-3H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 28665, conf, QEP, Johnson 3-9-4TH, Grail, no production data,
  • 28746, drl, EOG, Wayzetta 53-3334HX, Parshall, no production data,
  • 28747, 2,592, Slawson, Jore federal 2-12H, Clarks Creek, t9/14, cum 63K 11/14;
  • 29008, conf, XTO, David Federal 21X-20F, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Active rigs:


1/11/201501/11/201401/11/201301/11/201201/11/2011
Active Rigs167192182197167

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Surging Job Growth

When I read this headline -- "Why US inflation Stays Ultra-Low While Job Growth Is Surging" -- I couldn't wait to read the story. Not about inflation, but about the "surging" job growth. The AP is reporting:
This isn't explained in Econ 101.
Month after month, U.S. hiring keeps rising, and unemployment keeps falling.
Eventually, pay and inflation are supposed to start surging in response.
They're not happening.
Last month, employers added a healthy 252,000 jobs — ending the best year of hiring since 1999 — and the unemployment rate sank to 5.6 percent from 5.8 percent. Yet inflation isn't managing to reach even the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target rate. And paychecks are barely budging. In December, average hourly pay actually fell.
Okay, now let's see if the writer explains why.
"I can't find a plausible empirical or theoretical explanation for why hourly wages would drop when for nine months we've been adding jobs at a robust pace," said Patrick O'Keefe, chief economist at consulting firm CohnReznick.
First of all, the premise of the article is wrong, all wrong. There has not been a surge in hiring. Using the unemployment rate to argue that there has been a surge in hiring is disingenuous: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that a record number of folks have dropped out of the labor market, artificially dropping the unemployment rate. 

But let's say, just for argument's sake, that hiring has improved. Why are wages not following?

One word: ObamaCare.

Second word: uncertainty.

With regard to ObamaCare, it is a fact that:
  • the 29-hour work week is the new normal
  • employers see each new employee as an additional ObamaCare expense
Other reasons wages are being held down:
  • the safety net is much bigger (employment benefits, food stamps) (it's a counter-intuitive dot to connect)
  • with groceries so cheap (except in California), employers don't have to pay as much
  • with gasoline so cheap, employers don't have to pay as much
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Food Stamps

This is an interesting spreadsheet. Year-over-year, October, 2013, to October, 2014, the percentage of folks on fold stamps decreased in almost every state .... with two huge exceptions. Not only did the number of folks on food stamps decrease year-over-year in California and Nevada, the increase approached 10%. That is not trivial. We are, what? eight years into the recovery?
After decreasing last year, the number of folks on food stamps is again increasing:



We Will Never See $100-Oil Again - Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal -- USA Today -- January 11, 2015

USA Today is reporting:
Saudi billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal told me we will not see $100-a-barrel oil again.
The plunge in oil prices has been one of the biggest stories of the year. And while cheap gasoline is good for consumers, the negative impact of a 50% decline in oil has been wide and deep, especially for major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Even oil-producing Texas has felt a hit. The astute investor and prince of the Saudi royal family spoke to me exclusively last week as prices spiraled below $50 a barrel.
He also predicted the move would dampen what has been one of the big U.S. growth stories: the shale revolution. In fact, in the last two weeks, several major rig operators said they had received early cancellation notices for rig contracts. Companies apparently would rather pay to cancel rig agreements than keep drilling at these prices.
His royal highness, who has been critical of Saudi Arabia's policies that have allowed prices to fall, called the theory of a plan to hurt Russian President Putin with cheap oil "baloney" and said the sharp sell-off has put the Saudis "in bed" with the Russians. The interview has been edited for clarity and length.
At the end of the day, if consumers are paying less for gasoline; we finally see the end of all that "Peak Oil" talk; and the Saudis keep giving their only resource away, what's not to like?

There is one interesting thing that comes out of this: if Saudi has the resources to keep giving oil away at $50/bbl, their fields are much bigger than many have suspected.

Having said that, it will be interesting to see this play out with regard to shale:
  • unless we go to $20-oil, North American shale is not going to go away
  • as long as there is shale oil production, the technology will improve, the sweet spots will grow
  • the shale oil industry may modulate the boom and bust cycle that is common to the oil industry
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A Note to the Granddaughters

It's been quite a day.

For North Texas water polo, it was game day today, all day. Our older granddaughter's team had two games. We lost the first game to the undefeated team in the area by a score of 6  to 5. It was 6 to 6 for a moment, but the tying goal was "reversed" -- a foul was committed that negated the score. Our team won by a score of about 16 to 6 -- I didn't see the final score; I was just enjoying the game. It was interesting after the game to hear from our granddaughter the difference in the scoring -- she was very analytical about it.

Then the replay of the controversial play/call that cost the Dallas Cowboys the playoff game.

Then the Golden Globes.

And then at 10:03, apparently a 6-alarm fire "called in" from our apartment complex. I saw red strobe lights outside the blinds, went out to look: no less than six water and ladder trucks; one ambulance; and, one command and control vehicle. One truck's ladder was over the building across the way, but no flames, no definite smell of smoke/fire. And then after about 30 minutes, the firemen started packing up. A prank phone call bringing six or seven or eight vehicles. Maybe we will learn more tomorrow.

And, finally, most important, I completed Brenda James' Henry Neville and the Shakespeare Code. I will move on to something else now but will come back to this book at a later date. James mentions what she is working on next but it is not clear whether it will be an article for a journal or whether it will be a new book. I think the subject will be too esoteric for a new book.

Carroll Independent School District Aquatics Center
Venue For Game Day, Water Polo

Truly Inexplicable -- January 11, 2015

I agree with the writer. Investor's Business Daily is reporting:
It's shocking that Republicans, who won the last election by promising limited government and lower taxes, would in their first week back in power make noises about joining tax-and-spend liberal Democrats to raise the 18-cents-a-gallon gas tax. But that's exactly what they're doing.
Suddenly, a number of Republicans — who should all know better — are saying they'll "consider" a gasoline tax hike, especially if paired with something they want badly. A hike in the gas tax, they say, could "finance" other things — like a big-spending transportation bill, or even corporate tax cuts.

A headline in The Hill captures it perfectly: "Momentum builds in Congress for raising the federal gas tax."
Well, if the GOP is serious about being a party of limited government and low taxes, it shouldn't raise gasoline taxes; it should cut spending.
And don't tell voters you can't cut.
If they refuse, they shouldn't expect to be re-elected in 2016. The GOP's 2016 "wave" will crash. We're pretty sure of this since our own IBD/TIPP Poll, just finished on Thursday, asked 867 adults if they support or oppose a gas-tax hike. Fully 59% oppose it, while just 34% support it. Among Republicans, 70% are opposed and just 24% in support. Are you listening, GOP?
Fix the transportation funding bill; don't increase taxes.

Heavy Oil / Light Oil Exchange Between US / Mexico? -- January 11, 2015

Bloomberg is reporting:
The 40-year old ban on most U.S. crude exports is set to be loosened after Mexico’s state-owned oil company asked for an exception.
Petroleos Mexicanos is in talks with the U.S. Commerce Department to import 100,000 barrels a day of light crude to increase Mexico’s gasoline production and improve refining. Pemex, as the world’s ninth-largest oil producer is known, would send its heavy oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries in exchange.
Oil producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Continental Resources Inc. have called for the U.S. to end the restrictions, saying booming domestic output reduces the need to keep supplies at home. U.S. oil supply has increased by 66 percent in the past five years, and a majority of that growth is in light oil from shale rock.
“The announcement suggests that this was done pursuant to some pre-arranged understanding between the two countries.”  
Pemex’s request comes a week after President Barack Obama’s administration opened the door for expanded exports of an ultra-light type of crude oil known as condensate that has gone through minimal processing.
The Commerce Department published guidelines on its website for such exports December 30, 2014, the first public explanation of the rules involved.

Record Births In The Bakken Oil Patch -- January 11, 2015

Reporting by The Dickinson Press:
Williston:
  • 2014: 804 (record)
  • 2013: 750 (record)
Minot: 1,713
  • 2014: 1,713 (record)
  • 2013:  1,630 (record)
Dickinson:
  • 2014: 611 (record)
  • 2013: (540 (record)

Something For The Granddaughters: Projected Cost Of Solar-Plus-Battery Generated Electricity -- January 11, 2015

Cost of electricity:
From Forbes:
“To support grid defection, we believe the size of the battery needs to be very large, something akin to two-months’ worth of consumption,” Moody’s concluded. “The cost of electricity using that much storage would cost around 552¢ per kilowatt hour (kWh) on a levelized cost of energy basis.”
More specifically, the batteries would contribute about 535¢ per kWh to the total costs and the solar PV system would contribute the remaining 17¢ per kWh. To put this in perspective, the average retail rate of electricity for residential customers in Hawaii is about 36¢ per kWh. 
The capital cost of the batteries included in a residential off-grid solar plus batteries system currently cost about $500 per kWh, according to Moody’s. To achieve cost parity with the grid, the capital cost of batteries would need to decline to about $20 per kWh, based on Moody’s calculations.
Absent a major technological breakthrough, battery costs are likely to remain above $20 per kWh for several decades. In 2012, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that battery costs would fall as low as $135 per kWh by 2035 in the best case scenario.