Thursday, January 1, 2015

Several EOG Wells With Very Interesting Production Profiles Coming Off Confidential List That Will Be Reported Friday -- January 2, 2015

Friday, January 2, 2015
  • 22820, 1,240, CLR, Antelope 1-23H2, Elm Tree, t12/14; cum 11/3K 11/14;
  • 24917, 1,173, Petro-Hunt, State of North Dakota 154-99-16B-4H, Stockyard Creek, t10/14; cum 25K 11/14;
  • 28179, drl, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-3, Westberg, no production data,
  • 28181, drl, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-5, Westberg, no production data,
  • 28432, drl, Zavanna, Tomahawk 10-3 3H, East Fork, no production data,
Thursday, January 1, 2015
  • 26640, 347, EOG, Austin 48-3130H, Parshall, Bakken NOS, t6/14; cum 79K 11/14;
  • 26645, 445, EOG, Austin 66-3130H, Stanley, Bakken NOS, 43 stages; 13 million lbs, t4/14; cum 92K 11/14;
  • 26646, 737, EOG, Burke 46-3130H, Stanley, Bakken NOS, 38 stages; 11.3 million lbs, t4/14; cum 81K 11/14;
  • 26647, 636, EOG, Burke 45-3130H, Stanley, Bakken NOS, 2 sections; 32 stages; 9.8 million lbs; t4/14; cum 112K 11/14;
  • 27094, 918, EOG, Wayzetta 47-35H, Parshall, t4/14; Bakken NOS, 1 section, 25 stages; 7.5 million lbs; cum 121K 11/14;
  • 27095, 525, EOG, Wayzetta 48-35H, Parshall, Bakken NOS, 1 section; 20 stages; 6 million lbs, t5/14; cum 69K 11/14;
27194, 504, EOG, Austin 86-36H, Parshall, Bakken NOS, 1 section, 20 stages, 6.3 million lbs, t6/14; cum 53K 11/14;


26640, see above, EOG, Austin 48-3130H, Parshall, a nice well, an interesting production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

26645, see above, EOG, Austin 66-3130H, Stanley, a nice well, interesting production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

26646, see above, EOG, Burke 46-3130H, Stanley, a nice well, interesting production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

26647, see above, EOG, Burke 45-3130H, Stanley, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27094, see above, EOG, Wayzetta 47-35H, Parshall, a huge well, interesting profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27095, above, EOG, Wayzetta 48-35H, Parshall, a nice well, interesting profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27194, see above, EOG, Austin 86-36H, Parshall, a nice well, an interesting production profile:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Interesting Scout Ticket

This well has an interesting scout ticket. This is a short lateral; the horizontal was 6,450 feet of which 6,450 feet was drilled in the middle Bakken (100%). Note: the spacing was 1280-acres (two sections) but the horizontal was a short lateral. The file report did not shed light on why there are two "lines" for production form the Bakken.

NDIC File No: 26647     API No: 33-061-02762-00-00     CTB No: 226645
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/15/2014     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SESE 31-155-90     Latitude: 48.198022     Longitude: -102.292540
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: BURKE 45-3130H
Total Depth: 16340     Field: STANLEY
Spud Date(s):  10/29/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: AL     Date: 5/15/2014     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 97525     Cum MCF Gas: 56873     Cum Water: 116717
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 14276     Cum MCF Gas: 13321     Cum Water: 26807
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 4/19/2014     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 636     IP MCF: 840     IP Water: 1333

It also has an interesting production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

College Football Play-Offs

We watched the Oregon Ducks - Florida State game over at my brother-in-law's house; they have cable, we don't. The college football play-off games are on ESPN. What a great game for Oregon fans.

We watched the first half of the Ohio - Alabama game; then headed home. Saw the results on the internet. Fascinating. #4 Ohio beats #1 Alabama. Amazing.

Rose Bowl Parade, Pasadena, Southern California, 2015 -- Ties Record For Coldest Day This Date

32 degrees when the parade started. Ties the record for coldest January First in recorded history for Pasadena, first set back in 1952.

On ABC I note that the camera view is of the parade route turning to the right, or turning to the east, unto Colorado Boulevard.

The Little Old Lady From Pasadena, Jan and Dean

I lived in South Pasadena, just a mile or so south of Colorado Boulevard for three years many years ago; the first of four years in southern California was in Highland Park.

CNBC 2014 -- Yeah, Not So Good

As mentioned many times, I don't watch television as a rule (exception: sports). We don't get cable so I see CNBC only when I'm traveling.

I see the 2014 ratings are in. Don sent me the link. ZeroHedge is reporting:
The bottom line: according to Nielsen, is that despite the S&P recording a whopping 53 all time highs, and the Dow rising over 18,000, the channel that was once must watch financial TV for mom and pop, and has since devolved into endless cheerleading of failed policies and rigged markets, namely CNBC, just suffered its worst year in, well, ever
CNBC's Total Business Day segment (M-F 9:30a-5p), just delivered its lowest rated year since 1995 with P2+ and delivered its lowest rated year ever since 1992 with the 25-54 demographic.
Much more at the link.
I think a lot of this has to do with personalities: get the right personalities and folks will tune in. Losing Erin Burnett was a big loss -- some years ago. In my mind that's when things began going downhill.

But I agree with ZeroHedge: it seems the majority of talking heads spun stories that favored one political party more than the other, which is not good when a) business, generally, should have the facade of neutrality; and, b) the viewers are probably not aligned the same politically.

It seemed there was always a lot of "inside" stories: Ackman and Herbalife; Greenberg and Starbucks or whatever the pairings were; I've forgotten.

I've talked about this before. The producers need to schedule interviews two or three days ahead of time, which means producers need to decide on the story lines for the day two or three days in advance. The early morning show, Squawk Box, did the best with breaking news -- mostly the market opening, but then the rest of the day, the agenda that had been decided two or three days earlier played itself out even if there were more important news stories breaking.

When I last watched CNBC, it appeared the big story was the impending implosion of Greece. Didn't happen. But it looks like CNBC is being given another opportunity with the election of a most leftist politician in a most leftist county. Is Venezuela the new world's Greece, or is Greece the old world's Venezuela? Inquiring minds want to know.

Idle Rambling For Entertainment Purposes Only -- January 1, 2015

I grew up in oil country and never paid much attention to it until 2007.

Oil was discovered in North Dakota the year I was born. I was always impressed with the photographs taken by Bill Shemorry. I was the editor of the high school newspaper in my senior year and met Bill Shemorry on more than one occasion when down at The Williston Herald overseeing the weekly newspaper getting printed. A weekly or a monthly. It must have been a monthly; there's no way I could have gotten a weekly out, but I honestly forget. I will look it up later. It's funny what the mind remembers; what the mind forgets. I do remember The WHS Coyote was the best newspaper in the world. LOL. Not because of me but because of our adult "mentor" who volunteered her life to the publication for several years and to the wonderful staff I had.

I pretty much took the oil industry for granted. I saw an occasional pumper in the area, and the refinery east of Williston, whose last owner was Flying J, I think, before it was decommissioned many decades ago.

I have photos of the Williston Basin boom back in the 80's I think it was, and I have photos of the Alaska pipeline coming out of Prudhoe Bay, but after college, oil was the last thing on my mind until the oil embargo.

It was then that I realized "we" were riding on borrowed time. It was just a matter of time before the world ran out of oil, and life would be over as I knew it.

You know, this is what concerned me most -- God's honest truth, as they say -- this is the only thing that worried me about running out of oil: my grandchildren would never experience the enjoy of cruising in a muscle car up and down Main Street. Think American Graffiti. I was truly depressed thinking about what my grandchildren would miss, and what I had growing up. I didn't have a car until I graduated from college (except for a 1948 Willys jeep my dad got me in my senior year of high school but I didn't take to college; I gave it to me brother, or rather left it and he took possession, including rebuilding the engine in the garage).

I personally no longer care whether we have cars or not, or whether I can cruise up and down Main Street; my time has passed. But I would be devastated if my granddaughters could not experience the thrill of cruising. It's too bad the "bench seats" were replaced by individual front seats. 

I believed the Peak Oil theorists.

Wow, how times have changed. I asked this question last week: is this slump in the price of oil, this tsunami of oil a short-time phenomenon or are we at the very beginning of a new era in energy, easily lasting the rest of my investing life, perhaps the rest of my human life, perhaps to the end of my daughters' lives?

I don't know, but it's a question I never thought I would ask.

Disclaimer: my numbers may be way off. If the numbers are important to you, go to the source. I'm simply rambling here.

Earlier I posted a presentation that suggested the total North American oil production would increase from about 10 million bopd to 16 million bopd between 2010 and 2020. Mexico's production would actually decrease slightly through 2020; Canadian production would go up slightly (perhaps matching Mexico's decrease); the bulk of the 6 million bopd increase would be from the United States, and much of that would be unconventional oil.

Wow, there are so many story lines here. Remember how we all thought shale oil was too expensive? Now they're finding enough $35-oil in the Bakken to surprise even me. It almost seems shale oil production could be the new pricing barometer: at $35-oil only a few areas remain in play; as the price of oil moves toward $100, more areas return to active development; above $150-oil, new plays are developed. (That story line was touched upon by another writer about two weeks ago and one I had hoped to get back to.)

The technology keeps getting better. Our knowledge of the geology keeps improving. The infrastructure keeps building. I'm reminded of all this by a story that Don sent me, over at SeekingAlpha by Richard Zeits.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on anything you are about to read. In fact, if you are someone with impulse control problems, it would be best for you to avoid reading the story at the link. Fortunately the stock market is closed today.

The "takeaway" from Richard Zeits' article: the Utica is a monster. In Ohio. In Pennsylvania. (In New York State we will never know. LOL.)
To illustrate Utica's truly exciting productive potential, it may be instructive to look at the performance of Rice Energy's Bigfoot #9H dry gas Utica well in Belmont County, Ohio. The well tested in June of this year with an initial rate of ~42 MMcf/d from a ~7,000-foot lateral with 40 frac stages and was placed into sales during the second quarter.
The Bigfoot's performance is beating initial expectations. The well is producing on a restricted choke program at a flat rate of ~14 MMcfe/d. As of early November, in about five months, the Bigfoot had cumulatively produced approximately 2.0 Bcfe. Most importantly, the well's average pressure decline had been approximately 11 psi/d, which is better than the initial 12.5 psi/d "High Case" model and may indicate a higher production trajectory over time.
Rice's updated "High Case" for the well suggests cumulative production from the well over the first 18 months online of ~7.3 Bcf. This would put the well at par with some of the best wells drilled in the Marcellus dry gas sweet spot in Susquehanna County of Pennsylvania.
That was deep in the article, as background, or as a reference point. This was the "new stuff"
Notwithstanding the fact that the past decade was full of extraordinary shale gas discoveries, the era of shale exploration in North America is far from having run its course.
A week ago, Range Resources extended its peers' earlier success in the relatively new deep Utica/Point Pleasant dry gas play.
Range announced the result of its first test, the Sportsman's Club #11H well, located in Washington County, Pennsylvania.
The well achieved an average 24-hour rate of 59 MMcf per day flowing against simulated pipeline pressure and conditions (Range did not provide the choke data).
This is the strongest 24-hour rate reported so far in the entire Marcellus/Utica area and is one of the most prolific onshore gas wells (based on the 24-hour production test) ever drilled in North America.
To convert MMcf-ngl to boe I use the "6003" conversion factor.

There are any number of conversion factors; and these conversion factors are based on any number of parameters, or maybe just one parameter (BTU equivalency), so my conversion factor may not be your conversion factor. In fact, my conversion factor might be really, really wrong. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 
 Before I go on, note something about those production rates. They are choked back. LOL. Choked back. Think about that.

Then, think about this, from the article: " the updated high case [estimate] for the well suggests cumulative production from the well over the first 18 months online [could be] ~7.3 Bcf."

7.3 billion cf / 6003 = a really big number for boe over the first 18 months. Compare that number with boe-numbers of 500,000 boe over 18 months in the Bakken.

I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, I would go to the source; I have now moved into fantasy land on the blog.

The well's production to date: "As of early November, in about five months, the Bigfoot had cumulatively produced approximately 2.0 Bcfe."

2,000,000,000 / 6003 = another really big number. And that's just over the first five months.

My hunch: EOG is going to be reporting similar boe numbers in the Bakken before this is all over. Maybe not this year. Maybe not next year. But someday. (With apologies to Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca.)

Disclaimer: that was an opinion. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog or think you may have read at this blog. The blog is for entertainment purposes only. It used to be for education and entertainment purposes, but it's a new year, and I'm pretty much going to stick to entertainment.

The US is barely into this new energy revolution. The price of oil may go back up to $65 sometime in my investing lifetime but I am no longer worried about my granddaughters cruising down Main Street in a 2020 Honda muscle car (I assume GM muscle cars will all be in the dealers' service garages for recalls).   

By the way, I used to think about all those "0 to 60 mph" in 1.6 seconds or whatever it was when I was looking at muscle cars back in the day. Now that I'm older and driving on LA freeways, I am more interested in maximum number of feet to go from 60 to 0. LOL.   

It's A Holiday; Glad To See Government Motors Public Relations/Investor Relations At Work Today -- January 1, 2015; President Obama's Iraq Mission Expands As The JV Team Moves Closer

GM announced another huge recall today, allowing owners to stew for 24 hours, not even able to call their service dealer to schedule an appointment. The Detroit News is reporting another 83,000 vehicles recalled. [Update: in fact, the recall is really "three recalls."]

Other stories I never got around to as 2014 came to an end.

President Obama’s health care adviser Jonathan Gruber said that the Affordable Care Act would definitely not be affordable while he was writing the bill with the White House.
As Gruber continues to withhold documents while he awaits a call-back for more testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in the new year, more shocking information is coming to light detailing the deceptions that went into the writing of the health-care law.
Gruber: "And I think, once again, I’m amazed politically that we got this bill through.”
Super-size it:
Sea Ice Extent – Day 363 – Highest Global Sea Ice and Highest Antarctic Sea Ice For The Day.
Elementary, My Dear Watson:
Tropical forests are growing faster than scientists thought due to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A Nasa-led study has found that tropical forests are absorbing 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year as they photosynthesise and grow. And this is far more than is absorbed by the vast areas of boreal forest that encircle the Arctic.
By the way, that CO2 story? That validates the research I did on photosynthesis in the Arctic during my college days.

And now the stories that open 2015.

It's cold, really cold.
A storm that brought rare snow to Southern California and the Southwest at midweek will spread a swath of snow, ice, rain and travel problems from Chicago to Boston this weekend.
The storm will strengthen and take a track toward the lower Great Lakes this weekend.
What's shaking? California, Napa Valley, wine country -- fracking country is quiet:
A magnitude 5.1 earthquake struck in the Pacific Ocean off the Northern California coast on Thursday, about 70 miles (113 km) west of the town of Ferndale.
The JV team is getting closer and closer:
In Iraq’s western Anbar province, more than 300 U.S. troops are posted at a base in the thick of a pitched battle between Iraqi forces, backed by tribal fighters, and well-armed Islamic State militants.
The militants, positioned at a nearby town, have repeatedly hit the base with artillery or rocket fire in recent weeks. Since the middle of December, the U.S.-led military coalition has launched 13 airstrikes around the facility.
U.S. troops have suffered no casualties as a result of the attacks. But the violence has underlined the risks to American personnel as they fan out across Iraq as part of President Obama’s expanding mission against the Islamic State, even as he has pledged U.S. operations will not “involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil.”

Environmentalists In North Dakota To Re-Brand Themselves -- We're Not Fooled; January 1, 2015

From Say Anything Blog:
The State of North Dakota has made some very positive strides this year on the very real flaring problem. Since gas is a byproduct of energy development in North Dakota, as opposed to the goal, a lot of it was getting flared off instead of captured as oil production outstripped capture capacity. But the industry and state regulators (who are often unfairly accused of being in the pockets of the industry) have stepped up in a big way and, as I’ve noted previously, deserve some credit on the flaring issue.
But certain left-wing environmental activists aren’t willing to give any credit. Case in point: Wayde Schafer, conservation organizer for the Dacotah Chapter of the Sierra Club, who manages to illustrate how loose a grasp he actually has on the issue.
(On a related note, isn’t it funny how all the environmental activists have begun calling themselves conservationists? It’s a marketing gimmick. Conservationism is a lot more socially acceptable in states like North Dakota than environmentalism, so they’ve rebranded themselves.)
Nothing was said about the blanket immunity wind power developers are given when it comes to killing bald eagles, golden eagles, hawks, whooping cranes, ducks, and drones.

Actually I made that last part up; I don't know the law on drones. I would assume slicers, dicers, and drones follow the same rules as the NBA when it comes to fowling/charging.

Saudi Aramco Dialing Back -- Not Broke Yet

CNBC is reporting:
State oil giant Saudi Aramco has suspended plans to build a $2 billion clean fuels plant at its largest oil refinery in Ras Tanura, three industry sources said.
The energy project appears to be one of the first suspended in Saudi Arabia in response to the halving of the oil price in the last six months.
The other day it was reported that Saudi went looking for bank loans. Must not have come through.

Missed It By A Minute

At this link there is a graphic of the nineteen states where the minimum wage goes up today. I was surprised to see the hodge-podge of states; made little rational sense.

Here's part of the problem. The mapmaker was really, really anal retentive (I guess we can use that phrase in the blog; wiki has a page devoted to it). 

Prime example. Again, the graphic is of the nineteen states where the minimum wage goes up today. Note that New York State is not among them, not colored green. Here's why:
New York raised its minimum wage to $8.75 an hour beginning yesterday.
LOL. Missed it by a minute. Once you add all the states that raised the minimum wage between July 1, 2014, and will raise them by June 30, 2015, it's pretty much across the board.

I'm not making any comment about the "issue" of the minimum wage. This is just about an anal retentive map maker.

For those curious, Minnesota's minimum wage will increase this August.

Roof Stomping

The other day I was reminiscing with non-military friends and family about all the "fun" we had while in the military. I wish I had more patience to write some of those stories.
Last night I was reminded of one of my least-favorite military traditions: roof-stomping.

Every so often a group of fighter pilots (generally) would go out drinking. While closing up, it might be noticed that one of the group had not shown up. Most likely he had a good reason (and, yes, in those days it was mostly males; it's more fun now with the males, females, and transgenders in the mix, but I digress). 

So, back to the story. While closing up, it might be noticed that one of the group had not shown up. The group felt "sorry" that for whatever reason one of their members was unable to attend, so the group would decide to take the party to the house of the missing wingman.

Generally, this would be about closing time, 2:00 a.m. in most parts of the world, and our missing airman would be sound asleep, along with his wife and twopointfive children.

A knock on the door; several knocks on the door. No one getting up. Maybe no one in the house hears the knocking. Not a problem.

The group en masse would get up on the roof and start stomping. One could ignore the noise, but one could not ignore the fact that there was a very real possibility that the group might come crashing through -- especially in some of those old houses at the time.

Not much the homeowner/renter could do but let everyone in to continue the party.

I was reminded of that last night, because (and I checked later to confirm) that at 2:50 a.m. I was awoken by what sounded like roof stomping. 

We stay in a very, very nice neighborhood when in San Pedro, no problems, no murders (except on Columbo which we had been watching earlier in the evening), no nothing. It took me a minute to come out of my deep sleep and realize it was not the neighbor's party. Something was happening to our little abode, or in our little abode, or on top of our little abode. (Probably not reindeer; Christmas Eve was a week earlier.)

I put some "outside" clothes on and peered through the little peephole. Some drunk was trying to get in our front door. At least I assume he was drunk (later I confirmed the drool on the doorstep was the source of the smell of hops). I suggested he try another door, preferably his, but certainly not ours, and he left.

While "explaining" this to the drunk, my wife came out and said that was Joel, her gardener, who had come to pick up his check, his annual Christmas gift. 

Now, I don't know Joel personally (I've met the other two gardeners May has but if I've met Joel I did not recognize him). However, he did look like a family "friend/relative" I had once met long ago. I didn't know the name, but described the relationship connection to my wife; she said it couldn't be him; he lives in San Diego (a couple of hours south). I replied that I live in Texas and I'm here in California, so yes, it's possible someone from San Diego drove up here, got drunk, and came looking for a place to stay. But, no, May insisted I had just "chased" away her gardener who had showed up at 2:50 a.m. New Year's Day to get his Christmas check.

Once the commotion settled down, I checked the time, 3:05 a.m. May was now waking up, asking why I was up. I had just come back in the house after walking up and down the street to see if I could find Joel. Nope, he was long gone.