Friday, October 23, 2015

Simply Staggering -- What The Torrance Refinery Outage Means For Californians -- EIA -- October 23, 2015

Updates

May 6, 2016: Torrance refinery to re-start.
 
Original Post
 
This was posted by the EIA on October 15, 2015, a screen shot in case the link is ever broken:


and then the map showing origin of imported gasoline:


I wonder when/if the Los Angeles Times will ever put this on their front page, above the fold. Every gas station in California should post this story, along with photographs of their governor, US senators, congressmen, and local state representatives.

But for all of that, the average premium for Los Angeles spot gasoline is only 31 cents.

From the linked site:
Over a five-month period following an explosion at a California oil refinery in February 2015, imports of gasoline into California increased to more than 10 times their typical level, drawing from sources that include India, the United Kingdom, and Russia.

Imported gasoline has been arriving from all over the world (see graph above) at rates of 28,000–68,000 barrels per day (b/d) for March through July (the latest data available). These levels compare with an average of 5,000 b/d in 2013-14.

California gasoline markets continue to adjust to the February 18 explosion and fire at the ExxonMobil refinery in Torrance, California, located southwest of Los Angeles. The ExxonMobil refinery is the third-largest refinery in Southern California. The refinery unit affected by the explosion, the fluid catalytic cracker (FCC), is essential to making gasoline. Torrance's FCC represents 22% of the region's total FCC capacity, making it a key source of gasoline and distillate fuels that meet California's very stringent fuel specifications. On September 30, ExxonMobil announced the sale of the refinery to PBF Energy, which will be PBF Energy's first refinery on the West Coast once the sale is complete.

Because of its unique product specifications and long distance from international gasoline markets, California specifically, and the West Coast in general, does not typically import much gasoline. As a result, the sudden loss of supply from the Torrance refinery resulted in immediate supply shortfalls and higher wholesale and retail prices. The higher wholesale prices covered the costs of importing more gasoline from distant markets into California to make up for the supply shortfalls.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's company-level import data show that from March to July, California imports of motor gasoline averaged 52,000 b/d, from 15 different countries. The main supply sources have been refineries in India and the United Kingdom, averaging 13,000 b/d and 11,000 b/d over that time, respectively. California has also imported an average of 5,600 b/d from Russia over that period, along with smaller amounts from refineries across Europe and Asia.
An earlier post regarding the Torrance refinery is at this link.


Compare this graph, around the 34th week, about mid-August, 2015, with the graph above. It took awhile to arrange for imports and then to have the gasoline delivered.

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