Friday, September 25, 2015

Not Reported -- September 25, 2015

Over the past two days there have been reports about the new flaring rules in North Dakota in the era of low crude oil prices. The first story appeared two days ago. Yesterday, the NDIC released its decision.

The story that is not being reported: NDIC was able to come to a decision in less than 48 hours once the item was placed on the table for action.

Washington, DC? Seven years and we still don't have a decision on the Keystone? The good news is that on January 22, 2017, Hillary Clinton will announce her decision.

But seriously, the overwhelming response to the NDIC's decision was how quickly it was made. Obviously the commission has been considering it for months, but once it was on the table, no delay. They just got down to business and pulled the trigger.

By the way, this brings up another point.

Let's say there was only one well in North Dakota and it was spewing very tiny amounts of natural gas, almost imperceptible, but to be politically correct, the NDIC said that 100% of the natural gas must be captured. And on a year basis, they collect 0.0001 metric ton of natural gas.

Now, let's say there were 50,000 wells in North Dakota, each producing a lot of natural gas, and to be politically correct, the state said they would reduce flaring from 36% to 15% -- and at the end of the year, the state was still releasing 1,000 metric tons of natural gas.

The percent captured is irrelevant; it's the total amount of natural gas that is flared that the environment sees that is important, isn't it? Does Mother Nature care if 100% capture results in 0.0001 metric ton less natural gas. Hardly. But if 15% capture still results in 1,000 metric tons of natural gas being released ...

It's very possible that a year from now, North Dakota will be flaring much less natural gas than it is flaring now, simply because the older wells will be releasing less natural gas and more of those older wells will already be capturing and selling its natural gas. Meanwhile, the number of new wells coming on line will be decreasing. It will be interesting. The NDIC does track the amount of natural gas flared and the amount captured, processed, and sold.
  • January, 2013, report: 29% flared; volume not reported in the Director's Cut
  • January, 2014, report: 30% flared; volume not reported in the Director's Cut
  • January, 2015, report: 25% flared; daily volume of gas flared from October to November increasing 36.5 MMCFD
  • September, 2015, report: 19% flared; the daily volume of gas flared from June to July up 30 MMCFD
Note: this data could be incorrect. I often make factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

And, of course, no mention of the TAT "blackmail." After all, too much civility in North Dakota.

Linda Ronstadt, full concert, 1975

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