Wednesday, September 9, 2015

EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, September, 2015

EIA's short-term energy outlook for September, 2015:
Crude Oil:
  • U.S. monthly crude oil production is expected to decline through the middle of next year in response to low oil prices. Output then begins rising in late 2016 as oil prices are forecast to move higher.
  • Despite the expected decline in monthly crude oil production, U.S. total oil output this year is forecast to be the highest since 1972. (Comment: so much for peak oil.)
  •  Current low oil prices are making some U.S. oil production less profitable, with total estimated oil output during August alone down 140,000 barrels per day from the month before.
Gasoline/Refined Products:
  • U.S. drivers will continue to see the effects of low crude oil prices as gasoline prices are expected to decline through the rest of this year, with the pump price falling to a national average of $2.03 a gallon by December. (Comment: if the national average did not include California, the average would be significantly lower.)
  • Reduced gasoline demand following the peak summer driving season along with the switchover to lower-cost winter-grade motor fuel will help push gasoline prices lower during the remainder of 2015.
  • U.S. drivers this past Labor Day weekend paid the lowest price for gasoline during the heavily traveled holiday in 11 years.
Natural Gas:
  • U.S. natural gas production will increase and natural gas prices will be relatively low at least through the end of 2016.
  • High natural gas production has been the main driver behind above-average increases in U.S. weekly natural gas inventories this year, building supplies for the upcoming winter heating season.
  • In response to sustained low natural gas prices and environmental regulations, coal-fired power plant operators are expected to retire about nine gigawatts of generating capacity by the end of next year.
Intermittent Energy:
  • Wind is expected to generate more U.S. electricity than hydropower during the fourth quarter of this year.
  • U.S. coal production will decline this year in response to less coal use by power plants and lower demand for U.S. coal abroad.

No comments:

Post a Comment