Monday, June 15, 2015

Putting The Bakken In Perspective: The Bakken Vs Argentina -- June 15, 2015

This is so cool. Ten years ago I never would have done the math. Shoot, ten years ago I would not have even seen the story. Twenty years ago I would not have cared.

[In the big scheme of things, this is idle chatter. Hardly worth posting.]

Reuters over at Rigzone is reporting:
Argentina's overall crude output rose 3.6 percent in April versus April 2014 to 2.54 million cubic meters, according to data published on the website of Argentina's energy secretariat. The overall production increase was driven by a 9.1 percent jump in YPF output to 1.07 million cubic meters, the statement said.
Let's do the math.

Or more precisely, the arithmetic.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I assume there will be errors in the calculations below.

Step 1. Convert 2.54 million cubic meters to liquid bbls. The most difficult step may be getting the zeros right ... 2,540,000 cubic meters (if that's wrong, this whole exercise is for naught).

Step 2. Convert 2,540,000 cubic meters to liquid bbls -- there are several sites. Conversion factor:   1 Cubic Meter = 8.38641436 Barrels [US, Fluid] =  21,301,492. Another site: 15,976,119 bbls. I have no idea why there is such a discrepancy, but 2.54 million cubic meters is about 20 million bbls of crude oil.

Step 3. 20 million bbls / 30 days = 667,000 bbls / day.

The Bakken choked back AND active rigs at an all-time post-boom low is producing more than 1 million bbls / day.

So, there you have it. I probably made an arithmetic error.

Actually, that 667,000 bbls / day appears to be in the correct ballpark. According to the EIA, Argentina produced about 700,000 bbls / day.

By the way, for those interested, compare to the chart at the EIA linked site with this lede in the Reuters article:
Argentina's oil output rose in April thanks to increased production by state-controlled energy company YPF, the government said on Monday, marking the first year-on-year monthly increase in 2015.
So, four counties in western North Dakota are out-producing Argentina despite all the headwinds facing the Bakken.

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