Friday, February 6, 2015

TGIF -- February 6, 2015; New Jobs Blow Away Estimates; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up To 5.7%

Tiger Woods withdraws after 11 holes, first round

Job watch: robust job environment -- AP is reporting:
Steady economic growth and consumer spending likely led U.S. employers to hire at a healthy pace in January and extend last year's solid job gains.
Economists have forecast that the economy gained 230,000 jobs in January, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a six-year low of 5.6 percent.
In fact: numbers blow away the estimates - payroll jobs added -- an astounding 257,000 jobs.

Unemployment rate ticks up to 5.7%. In post-Bush era, that's full employment.


Emerald Oil announces the pricing of ~24.55 mln common stock offering of at $1.12/share: The company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and for general corporate purposes.

Pandora shares fell sharply before the stock market opened Friday, a day after the music streaming service reported disappointing fourth-quarter results and revenue outlooks as it spent more money on marketing and product development. I've blogged about Pandora often; I was an early adopter with Pandora but quickly lost interest. Apple Radio is now my favorite. It meshes with iTunes so I can easily switch from my iTunes library to Apple Radio. Apple Radio does everything Pandora does, as far as I know, but I haven't listened to Pandora in ages.


Active rigs:

Active Rigs136191182201165

RBN Energy: Natural gas forward curves.
The Dominion South Point strip price for the balance of 2015 (March-December) has been settling consistently under $1.90/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 in New York is averaging around $2.80/MMBtu in this week’s forwards market. Meanwhile, Northeast and US gas production remain near record levels. The breakeven price environment and looming oversupply leaves producers and the industry vulnerable to the downside. Where and when will prices bottom out? What, if anything, would trigger a rebound?  Today Part 4 of our Forward Curve Series, focuses on fundamental factors driving Northeast forward curves over the next few years.
In Part 1 of this series we looked at the factors that influence natural gas forward curve prices in the US market, the big five being:  supply, demand, storage, transportation/infrastructure and weather.
In Part 2 and Part 3, we dove into the Northeast gas market, examined the region’s transformation to become a net producer and reviewed the dramatic reshaping of its forward curves. The trigger for this transformation is local production growth from the Marcellus/Utica shales, which tipped the Northeast supply/demand balance in less than a decade from perpetually supply-short to largely self-sufficient and on the brink of oversupply. In the new gas world, Northeast forward curves have shifted from what were historically premium prices (above Henry Hub) to major discounts ($1.00/MMBtu or more below Henry Hub). Given where Henry Hub is trading these days ($2.00/MMBtu and $3.00/MMBtu handles through at least 2021), that means outright prices in the Northeast are skirting breakeven levels for producers for the next few years.
There is no obvious reverse on this bullet train. But where are the curves headed? This time, we look at fundamental factors at play.
Brian Williams: High And Dry In Aftermath Of Hurricane Katrina

The New Orleans Advocate is reporting:
And last year, in an interview with Tom Brokaw, the man he replaced in the anchor chair at NBC, Williams said:
“My week, two weeks there was not helped by the fact that I accidentally ingested some of the floodwater. I became very sick with dysentery, our hotel was overrun with gangs, I was rescued in the stairwell of a five-star hotel in New Orleans by a young police officer. We are friends to this day. And uh, it just was uh, I look back at total agony.”
But the French Quarter, the original high ground of New Orleans, was not impacted by the floodwaters that overwhelmed the vast majority of the city.
A spokesman for NBC did not immediately respond Thursday to questions about those comments, the hotel to which Williams referred, whether Williams stands by the claims or whether the network is reviewing them.
Williams has described his experiences during Katrina as personally transformative, and he has returned to the city and the topic numerous times since.
“I saw fear, I saw death, I saw depravity, I saw firearms being brandished, I saw looting,” he told the Los Angeles Times a year after Katrina made landfall.
He also recalled the danger of the moment in a 2007 interview on C-SPAN.
“We had to have men with guns behind me one night because I was the only source of light downtown, was the lights that were illuminating the broadcast,” Williams said. “We were told not to drink our bottled water in front of people because we could get killed for it.”
Starting to sound like a blog. 

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