Wednesday, December 17, 2014

MRO Re-Fracking Wells -- An Update On Two Wells That Were-Re-Fracked -- December 17, 2014

A long time ago, back in the summer of 2011, I went through the MRO wells that looked like they might be candidates for MRO's re-fracking program. Periodically, I go back through that list to see if there is any evidence of any re-working or re-fracking.

Tonight, an update on two wells of interest. First:
  • 17753, 553, MRO, Strommen 34-8H, Killdeer, t6/09; cum 193K 10/14; looks like it was re-fracked/re-worked July 11; re-fracked this past summer, 2014
According to the sundry forms, this well was initially stimulated 6/12/2009, 0 stages (open-hole), 208,360 pounds of sand.

Then, most recently, it was stimulated again, on 8/9/2014 (a couple of months ago), 30 stages, 2.1 million lbs of sand.

Note the production profile for the past year:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


The second well of interest:
  • 17966, 358, MRO, Jerry Pennington USA 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t6/09; cum 177K 10/14; it looks like it was re-fracked this past summer (2014)
It appears this well was originally an open-hole stimulation with 207,500 lbs of sand in early June, 2009.

The first few months of production:

A sundry form received on May 20, 2014, states that MRO plans to re-frack this well; the frack must have been completed, but the data is not yet on file. The production profile for the past few months, note the huge jump from 1400 bbls in April, 2014, to over 16,000 bbls in just 22 days of September:


Cool, huh?

First of all, back in 2011, with minimal data, and painstakingly going through the scout tickets I came up with a list of MRO wells that might be suitable for MRO's re-fracking program (see link above).  It turns out a few of those wells have been re-fracked; others have had some re-work done based on the production profile, but whether they were re-fracked is hard to say. 

Hess' Approach To Curbing Flaring -- December 17, 2014 is reporting:
A statewide flaring mandate took effect on October 1st of 2014, which requires companies to capture a certain amount of their natural gas byproduct on-site per month or lower their production amounts. 
The state of North Dakota hopes to reduce its flaring rate by 10 percent in the next three years. Each company is applying different approaches for how they are going to reduce the amount of natural gas they burn off.
Hess, one of the largest producing companies in the Bakken area, is using mobile gas capture technology developed by Gtuit. Gtuit, a mobile natural gas capture service company based out of the Bakken area, is an up-and-coming company in the region and was founded in 2011. The system mounts onto a trailer that attaches to an 18-wheeler and is able to move from well site to well site over the course of less than 24 hours.
According to Oil and Gas Journal, the system can withstand temperatures as low as -40 degrees F and wind chills of -60 degrees F.  The system can adapt to multi-pad sites.
The typical cost for a Gtuit unit and service is somewhere between $45,000-60,000/month.
Following the flaring mandate’s implementation in October Gtuit now processes over 3 million gal of Bakken natural gas liquid.
GE Oil & Gas also offers a mobile-capture unit, CNG in a Box, which was tested by Statoil earlier this year.

The Gap Between The Haves And The Have-Nots Is Widening -- CNN Money -- December 17, 2014

This is a good article for data points.

It appears the rich are defined as having a median household net worth of $650,000.

It appears the middle class is defined as having a median household net worth of $100,000.

The poor: median net worth, $10,000.

Maybe for a 30-second soundbite: $1,000,000 (one million); $100,000; and, $10,000. Nice round numbers.

That's net worth. Not annual income. That's according to CNN Money:
The median household net worth of middle-income Americans remained at $96,500 between 2010 and 2013, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center, which looked at Federal Reserve Bank data.
Upper-income households, however, saw their wealth grow to $639,400 last year, up from $595,300.
I've been saying the same thing -- the widening gap -- ever since I began blogging.

But I think the story is much worse than the writer is suggesting. 

First, my hunch is the middle of the middle class is being pushed into the lower middle class.

And the "lower" middle class is being pushed into the poor class. That hunch is corroborated by the government's statistics showing the number of people on food stamps or having an income below the poverty line is increasing.

Second, the huge immigration/amnesty order will keep hourly wages. That's probably one of the reasons there was such a movement to raise the minimum wage. I don't hear much about raising the minimum wage now; that hue and cry reached its apogee just as President Obama was signaling his intent to offer amnesty to as many as 11 million undocumented folks already living here.

It is not mentioned in the article, but these are the realities and the stressors for the middle of the middle class and for those in the lower middle class:
  • these groups rely on equities much less than those in the upper middle and rich classes; although risks are greater, rewards are better for those invested inquities
  • that part of the middle class relying on savings account to increase net worth will find that their savings accounts are earning well less than 1%
  • ObamaCare is not all it was promised to be, and, in fact, will cost the lower/middle classes more than those below them and those above them (as a percentage of their income); ObamaCare is the 800-lb gorilla in all these stories and when it is not mentioned, it's a red flag
  • wagers and salaries are stagnant
  • utility bills are skyrocketing in some of the largest urban centers in the US, namely the northeast
By the way, other other definitions, from Pew, for a family of four:
  • middle income: a household income between $44,000 and $132,000 (46% of American families)
  • upper-income: a household income more than $132,000 
Of course, even these definitions are lacking. An income of $100,000 means a lot more in Pierre, South Dakota, than it does in downtown New York City.

EOG To Report One Nice Well, Whiting Two Nice Wells Friday -- December 17, 2014

Nine (9) permits canceled, some older ones, as well as some newer ones:
  • Oasis (5), Hess (2), EOG (2)
  • One of the EOG cancellations is in Burke County
  • Oasis cancels 3 permits in Mountrail County; 2 in McKenzie County
Twenty-three (23) confidential wells plugged or producing.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs180186183200166

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:
25080, conf, Statoil, Field Trust 7-6 4H, Todd, no production data,
25749, see below, EOG, Wayzetta 28-1424H, Parshall, a big well,
27050, see below, Whiting, Mork Trust 21-17-6H, Pleasant Hill, a nice well, 
28089, see below, Whiting, Mork Trust 21-17-7H, Pleasant Hill, a nice well, 
28251, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-5, no production data,


25749, see above, EOG, Wayzetta 28-1424H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27050, see above, Whiting, Mork Trust 21-17-6H, Pleasant Hill:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

28089, see above, Whiting, Mork Trust 21-17-6H, Pleasant Hill:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold


Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (4), XTO (3), MRO (2), Slawson, Sinclair
  • Fields: Tobacco Garden, Alkali Creek, Wolf Bay, Big Bend, Sanish
  • Comments:
Ten (10) producing wells completed:
  • 25528, 683, Zavanna, Sylvester 32-39 1H, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
  • 26436, 1,944, BR, CCU Powell 41-29MBH, Corral Creek, t11/14; cum --
  • 26843, 1,986, XTO, Roxy 21X-6E, West Capa, t11/14; cum --
  • 26844, 1,999, XTO, Roxy 21X-6A, West Capa, t11/14; cum --
  • 27005, see below/2,126, Statoil, Brown 30-19 5TFH, Alger, t11/14; cum --
  • 27339, A, CLR, Vachal 7-27H, Alkali Creek, no test data, s2/14; cum --
  • 27700, 1,200, BR,  Haymaker 31-15TFH-A, Elidah, t11/14; cum --
  • 27723, 290, SM Energy, Almos Farm 1-26HS, West Ambrose, t101/4; cum 4K 10/14;
  • 27724, 713, SM Energy, Almos Farms 1B-26HS, West Ambrose, t10/14; cum 13K 10/14;
  • 28232, 778, Statoil, Myron 9-3H, Squires, t11/14; cum --
NOTE: from "Things To Follow Up On" --
November 17, 2014
Statoil's Brown wells will be their first crack at cemented liners and increased frac stages. Will be interesting to see the difference. [27003, 27704, 27005, 27006, 28733, older wells: 20790, 18760]

Wednesday -- December 17, 2014; Utility Bills Soar In New England -- Forbes; Housing Starts Decline, First Drop Since August -- Global Cooling To Blame -- Bloomberg

Before we get started. Rex Reed's top 10 movies for 2014 includes The Grand Budapest Hotel, at number 6. I watch it regularly, watching it again last night. And before that, I watched The Great Gatsby for the third time in two days. I never fail to see something new. I remember Roger Ebert saying he once went through Casablanca frame-by-frame; at the time I had trouble seeing why someone would do that. Now I understand. By the way, Rex Reed's comments on Scarlett Johansson (Under The Skin, #3 among the ten worst) are right on (with one exception, Lost In Translation).


Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Linn Energy (soars 28%).

New England's utility bills soaring -- Forbes. Memo to self. See if Pocahontas is quoted. [No, she isn't. Apparently she is not interested in this issue, just banking.]

Why oil will go up in price in 2015 -- 24/7 Wall Street.

Excess of 2 million bopd -- LA Times. Regular readers have read several times that pundits said one million bopd need to be taken off the market; I have said from the start, 2 million, and have always said that would be easy to do.

CLR's earnings match estimates -- Market Realist.

COP surging today -- The Street

Dow surges 220 points -- ExxonMobil, Chevron surge -- Barron's.

I had lost track of this one; watch for an increase in head of cattle in North and South Dakota, and Montana next summer. Beef is hitting all-time highs and unlikely to plateau any time soon. Blame it on the drought in the southwest.  -- Wall St Cheat Sheet.

Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs180186183200166

RBN Energy: crude and natural gas after the crash -- the ratio
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled yesterday at $55.93/Bbl, down 52% since June 2014 and NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures settled at $3.619/MMBtu. The crude-to-gas ratio of these two energy commodities - meaning the crude price in $/Bbl divided by the gas price in $/MMBtu - was just over 15X.
We have not seen a crude-to-gas ratio at this level since June 2010. Over the past 4 years the ratio has been far higher - averaging 27X and reaching a high of 54X In April 2012.
That lofty four year run for the crude-to-gas ratio has arguably been responsible for much of the crude and natural gas liquids production boom since 2011 and a “Golden Age” of natural gas processing. Today we begin a two part series on the implications of a lower crude-to-gas ratio.
Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather
Ice Age Now

Putting things into perspective: we all agree -- warmists, deniers, and Algore --  we all agree that the warmists predict that the global temperature will rise about 1.5 degrees over the next 100 years.

Don noted that Minot's average temperatures deviated from the mean by almost that exact amount this past year, 1.27 degrees. Link here

But for the warmists: note that the 1.27-degree deviation was a DECREASE in temperature in Minot by that amount.

New Englanders and Pocahontas Are Betting On Global Warming

Remember the shock last year when New Englanders paid 20 cents/kWh during the "Polar Vortex"?

No "Polar Vortex" yet this year, but, if I'm reading the story correctly, the New England utilities have already set this winter's fare rate at 24 cents/kWh. Maybe I'm misreading the story. Forbes is reporting:
Consumers in New England got a shock in their utility bills this month. A 40% increase over the previous month. National Grid , the largest utility in Massachusetts, decided that electricity prices for this winter would rise to 24¢/kWh, a record high.
But peak electricity prices could exceed 100¢/kWh like they did last year during the polar vortex.
Not sure why New Englanders are so surprised. It was their choice to throw all-in for natural gas and renewables in a land of harsh winters. But they’ve refused to build new gas pipelines. And they’re shutting a nuclear plant that has 20 years of cheap reliable cold-resistant energy left on it.
New England already has the highest electricity prices in North America – about 18¢/kWh averaged over the whole year. The national average is 12¢/kWh. In my own state of Washington, it’s only 8¢/kWh thanks to hydro and nuclear, and a reasonable market structure.
But last year during the polar vortex, New Englanders paid over 20¢/kWh.
Prices will go up, of course, if Cape Wind ever gets built. That was the agreement the state made with Cape Wind promoters -- a guaranteed 3.5% increase / year.

As usual, the Forbes article is excellent, providing a lot of background.

It continues:
ISO New England, which manages the region’s transmission grid and wholesale electricity market, had to bring up dirtier coal and oil plants to try to make up the difference.
Nuclear energy, unaffected by cold, became the primary provider of electricity in New England, edging out gas 29% to 27%. Oil generation made up 15% while coal accounted for 14%. Hydro, with a little renewable, provided the rest.
The utilities know they are in for another bad winter and have adjusted prices up knowing they’ll have to pay for these dirtier and more expensive stop-gaps when the same thing happens this winter.
But nuclear won’t be able to help as much this year. The political and warped market pressures have forced Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant to close at the end of this month.
Ironically, low gas prices were cited as a reason for this closure 20 years ahead of schedule. And some coal plants are closing as well, making sufficient capacity and reliability for the region dicey.
So, not only are the Boston folks going to pay more for their electricity this year, they are going to push more coal-derived CO2 into the atmosphere.

But that could be good, if it hastens global warming, at about 1.5 degrees over the next 100 years.

The Spin Is 24/7

Despite a dismal housing report yesterday, this is what the spin was:
“All the conditions for stronger residential investment are in place for 2015,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., who forecast starts would slow to a 1.03 million pace. “An improving job market is going to do wonders for the housing market.”  
Say what? "An improving job market"? If, and it's a big if, the job market is improving, it's because fast food restaurants (McDonald's) and hospitality services (motel/hotel cleaning staff) have increased hiring, along with seasonal retail hiring (at $8.25/hour here in the DFW area) -- these aren't the kind of jobs that will drive the housing market.

So how bad was the report yesterday?  Bloomberg is reporting:
Housing starts declined 1.6 percent, the first drop since August, to a 1.03 million annualized rate from a revised 1.05 million pace in October that was stronger than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.
The decrease was led by a plunge in the South as other areas registered gains.
Building permits also fell last month, indicating a surge in construction is probably not in the cards for the immediate future. 
The word "plodding" was used to describe the housing market. 

And what are the attributing the plunge in housing starts in the South? Sit down; you won't believe this. The plunge in housing starts was blamed on global cooling. Say what, global cooling?  From the linked article:
Only the South showed a decrease in starts, plunging 19.5 percent in November from the prior month, the biggest drop for the region since June.
Some economists attributed the drop in starts to colder-than-normal temperatures. Last month was the coldest November since 2000, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
I can't make this stuff up. The CNBC headline for a Reuters story was even sillier: "US housing starts, permits fall; trend points to recovery."

No, I can't make this stuff up.

Islamic Spin Puts US Spin Into Perspective

The Islamic Taliban justifies killing / executing / massacring / butchering / slaughtering 132 children, some as young as two years of age.

But we all know that the Taliban is not an Islamic organization. No religion would ever do this. President Obama has told us this. It is interesting which religions he defends.

For The Archives
Governor Cuomo Bans Fracking In New York State

This was their "smoking gun":
The health department spent more than 4,500 hours on its analysis, reviewing academic studies, consulting experts and meeting with health officials in other states, Zucker said. The studies and data showed many potential health risks, including groundwater contamination in Wyoming and increased traffic deaths in areas of Pennsylvania.
I am unaware of any documented groundwater contamination due to fracking, and "increased traffic deaths in areas of Pennsylvania" is simply laughable.

Based on the health department's findings, I'm surprised they haven't banned tobacco cigarette smoking altogether.